Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Penn National
Tuesday - November 15, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
PEN-1   11/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($18.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  T C GREELEY Jul27 Apr22       (beattie todd )DIAZ VLADIMIR 123 2.00 21% 3.70    
2  SOUL PROVIDER Oct17 Oct03 Sep21 Sep07 Aug13 (whylie herol)HADDOCK DEXTER 123 15.00    
SCR  SUNSHINE JACK Oct21         (kravets m)AGUILAR M 123 2.50 27% 2.70    
4  LA PAZ Oct05 Sep08 Aug18     (smith r)WHITNEY G 123 5.00 21% 3.90    
5  NECCO Oct21 Oct07 Sep10 Aug04 Jun11 (murtough ste)BARBOSA JEIRON 117 6.00 ★    
SCR  JUST GOT STARTED Jul08 Jun04       (spina charles)CORA D 123 3.00 ★    
 
PEN-2   11/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSY LAD Oct26 Oct04 Sep07 Aug12 Jul21 (houghton thomas)CORA D 121 2.50 28% 2.60    
2  PAID THE PREACHER Oct26 Oct11 Sep27 Sep06 Aug02 (rogers michael)CHIAPPE R 122 4.00    
SCR  NORTHERN SPY         (agnew naoise)AGUILAR M 121 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  BRODIX         (hendriks )HERNANDEZ A 122 3.50 ★    
5  GOSIGNAL Mar09 Feb11 Jan04     (wolfe jr)DIAZ VLADIMIR 122 8.00 ★    
6  KEEPING IT COUNTRY Oct14         (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 121 5.00 ★    
 
PEN-3   11/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GEM JUAN Sep22 Aug31 Aug18 Aug04 Jul15 (bobadilla f)TUNON JORDANO 122 20.00    
2  I'M BLAMING YOU Nov07 Oct25 Sep27 Sep16 Aug01 (castillo sanc)OCASIO M 122 12.00    
3  KUDURO Oct19 Sep23 Aug31 Aug11 Jun03 (kreiser t)VARGAS L 122 3.00 ★    
4  DROSSELMOON Oct19 Aug31 Jul22 Jun29 Jun10 (rathman e)RODRIGUEZ R 122 4.00    
5  AGAINST THE ODDS Oct19 Sep23 Aug31 Aug11 Jul21 (zalalas m)HERNANDEZ A 122 8.00 ★    
SCR  WONDER IN Oct19 Sep23 Aug18 Aug04 Jun22 (beattie sandee )WHITNEY G 122 5.00 7% 13.40    
7  I SEE THE STARS Oct19 Sep23 Aug31 Aug04 Jul07 (graci kimber)VILLEGAS JERRY 122 3.50 ★    
8  HERE WEGO Oct28 Oct12 Sep15 Aug19 Jun29 (mcmahon deme)BARBOSA JEIRON 119 4.50 59% 0.70    
 
PEN-4   11/15/2022 5490ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIKEY'S JEWEL Oct25 Oct14 Oct05 Sep16 Aug31 (salinas jose)AGUILAR M 124 3.00 ★    
2  PERKEO Oct15 Sep24 Jul13 Jun23 May31 (rathman elisha)WHITNEY G 119 10.00 11% 7.90    
3  CREEDIBILITY Oct25 Sep08 Aug30 Aug12 Jul27 (brown howar)OCASIO JONATHAN 120 5.00 ★    
4  ARCTICA Oct28 Oct05 Sep16 Aug26 Aug10 (flores wa)HERNANDEZ A 120 8.00    
5  YOURINDENIAL Oct19 Sep23 Sep09 Aug18 Jul21 (nicholson j)IGNACIO EDUVIEL 119 2.50 12% 7.40    
SCR  RAISETONEW HEIGHTS Oct28 Sep15 Aug24 Aug05 Jun15 (fields kevin)CORA D 120 2.00 46% 1.20    
 
PEN-5   11/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($28.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAND BY YOU Oct12 Sep07 Jul18 Jul02 May20 (beattie todd )DIAZ VLADIMIR 120 6.00 ★    
2  TODO SOLA Oct06 Sep07 Aug19 Jul20 May15 (beattie cody)WHITNEY G 119 6.00    
3  R AVERIE LYNN Oct21 Oct14 Sep07 Aug04 Jul13 (gorham mich)MARIN A 124 4.00 22% 3.60    
4  MOONSAFE Oct21 Sep25 Aug19 Jul10 Jun18 (salvaggio mich)CONNER TYLER 120 2.50 ★    
5  PROPOSITION Oct05 Sep08 Aug15 Jul25 Jul04 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 122 2.00 42% 1.40    
6  TIMELY TRADITION Oct21 Oct07 Sep07 Aug19 Jun22 (kravets m)AGUILAR M 120 6.00 8% 11.40    
 
PEN-6   11/15/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($17K) 2 F PT- 8:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSE OF SHANAKILL Oct05 Sep21 Aug22 Aug11 Jul27 (albright r)AGUILAR M 121 5.00 ★    
2  NOWYOUSCAN'TLEAVE Oct12         (aristone ph)IGNACIO EDUVIEL 114 10.00    
3  TRAJEC HOLIDAY Oct11 Sep20 Sep06     (mileni nick)CHIAPPE R 121 3.00 27% 2.70    
4  FAIRVIEW Oct20         (lawrence jame)TREJOS JOSEPH 121 4.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  OUR STACY LAUREN         (ippolito mark)LEAHEY HANNAH 114 10.00 20% 4.00    
6  APRILS LUCK Oct22 Oct12 Aug31 Aug21   (lucas bon)HERNANDEZ A 121 15.00    
7  DESI'S REWARD Oct11 Aug22 Aug01     (houghton thomas)CORA D 121 2.50 ★    
SCR  PENNIES PRINCESS Oct05 Sep21       (sarson alisa )DIAZ VLADIMIR 121 8.00    
 
PEN-7   11/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  OBROTHER ITSYLVIA Oct21 Aug31 Aug04 Jul06 Jun09 (shea lydee)CORA D 120 6.00    
2  DAKOTA OUTLAW Oct26 Oct12 Sep22 Aug24   (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 124 6.00 ★    
3  NAUTICAL NATURE Oct21 Sep23 Sep09 Aug25 Aug10 (o'hearn hea)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 10.00    
4  RILEYS DUDE Oct29 Oct19 Sep17 Aug17 Jul21 (lucas bon)HERNANDEZ A 124 2.50 26% 2.90    
SCR  GOLDEN AVIEATOR Nov04 Oct13 Sep22 Sep05 Aug03 (gorham mich)MARIN A 121 4.00 12% 7.10    
6  GRAND WISER Nov04 Oct15 Oct08 Sep14 Aug17 (maymo j)AGUILAR M 120 4.50 ★    
7  STANHOPE Oct07 Sep07 Aug08 Jul23 Jul14 (lucas bon)RODRIGUEZ R 120 3.50 34% 2.00    
 
PEN-8   11/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($31.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TANKINATOR Oct11 Sep14 Aug22 Jul29 Jul08 (coletti )GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 3.00 39% 1.60    
SCR  MAJOR THOMAS Oct21 Feb01       (houghton thoma)CONNER TYLER 123 6.00    
3  GANDI Oct25 Oct04 Sep20 Aug26 Aug12 (albright r)AGUILAR M 119 5.00 ★    
4  SIR REX Oct18 Sep16       (o'callahan )SALGADO ANTHONY 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  TURNPIKE BOB Oct27 Oct01 Sep09 Jul22 Jul08 (simoff an)HERNANDEZ A 119 4.00 22% 3.50    
6  SPOOKY ONE Oct25 Oct07 Jun29 Jun03 May13 (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 120 20.00    
7  DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN Oct25 Aug24 Aug12 Jun27 Jun03 (kreiser t)RODRIGUEZ R 119 2.50 7% 12.70    
8  LONG TOM Jun01 May20 May13 Apr29 Apr21 (salinas jose)LEAHEY HANNAH 113 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.