Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - October 26, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (6/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/1)-(6/4/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/4/1)-(6/4/1/7)-(6/4/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/4/1)-(3/1/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1)-(3/1/7/4)-(3/1/2/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-2   WIN (3/1/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/7/4)-(3/1/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/7/4)-(3/1/7/4)-(3/1/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/7/4)-(3/1/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/1/7/4)-(3/1/2/4)-(3/5/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-3   WIN (3/1/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/2/4)-(3/1/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/2/4)-(3/1/2/4)-(3/1/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2/4)-(3/5/1)-(5/3/4/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-4   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1)-(5/3/4/7)-(4/7/1/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-5   WIN (5/3/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/4/7)-(5/3/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/4/7)-(5/3/4/7)-(5/3/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/4/7)-(4/7/1/2)-(2/5/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-6   WIN (4/7/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/1/2)-(4/7/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/1/2)-(4/7/1/2)-(4/7/1/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-7   WIN (2/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/6)-(2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/5/6)-(6/4/1/2)-(2/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-8   WIN (6/4/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/2)-(6/4/1/2/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/2)-(6/4/1/2/12)-(6/4/1/2/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   10/26/2024 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRICKBAT Oct04 Sep13 Aug11 Jul14 Jun30 (rushton stacy)RAMOS B 124 8.00 9% 10.00    
2  TUFF WILLY TE Sep20 Aug19 Aug05 Jul08 Jun01 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 2.00    
3  JUST PLAIN ORNERY Oct11 Sep20 Aug18 Jul27 Jul13 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
4  NEEDABETTERJOCK Sep29 Sep21 Sep01 Aug17 Jul27 (scudder rick)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 6.00 27% 2.60    
5  HARD TO COME BY Oct12 Sep13 Aug28 Aug14 Jul16 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50    
6  KAELY'S BROTHER Oct18 Oct06 Sep01 Aug17 Jul21 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 2.50 29% 2.50    
7  HOWBEIT Oct11 Sep21 Sep08 Aug25 Jul27 (kemper ke)IRONEYES R 119 4.50 ★    
 
ARP-2   10/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SATIN HEART Oct05 Sep21 Sep08 Aug25 Aug04 (scudder rick)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 6.00 18% 4.70    
2  OUR CLOVER GAL Oct11 Sep29 Sep15 Sep08 May17 (ibanez alber)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 10.00    
3  AMY D Oct04 Sep20 Aug25 Aug11 Aug04 (hibdon ma)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.00 42% 1.40    
4  SPECIAL TWIST Sep27 Sep09 Aug27 Aug14 Aug06 (hall monk)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  HEAR ME ROAR Oct11 Aug04 Jul14 Jun16 May12 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 4.00    
6  LADY ATHENA Oct13 Sep29 Sep06 Aug19 Jul16 (williams )IRONEYES R 117 2.50    
7  QUALITY BOW Sep06 Jul21 Jun23 Jun02 Apr26 (chavez veroni)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50 11% 8.30    
8  GUARDING ELK CAMP Oct13 Sep29 Sep07 Aug31 Aug17 (leon alexis)ARANA MINOR 124 4.50    
 
ARP-3   10/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOOKIN FOR LOKI Sep22 Aug28 Aug07 Jul20 Jun28 (kemper ke)IRONEYES R 119 3.50 28% 2.50    
2  SHAKINTHEMONARCHY Oct13 Oct06 Sep20 Sep06 Aug24 (hibdon ma)MEDINA ANGEL 122 2.50 7% 12.40    
3  SYNNIN AND WINNIN Oct04 Sep21 Sep02 Aug18 Aug03 (mitchell chr)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.00 36% 1.80    
4  DIVINE TASK Oct11 Sep04 Aug26 Aug14 Jul31 (hall monk)CARILLO DANIEL 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  OBVIOUSLY TOO Oct12 Sep16 Sep08 Aug18 Aug03 (schindler jeff)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
6  DANCIN ROCKET Sep13 Aug02 Jul12 Jun10 May25 (lemburg mark)RAMOS B 124 4.50    
7  BRANNIGAN Oct18 Oct06 Sep28 Sep20 Sep05 (lavanway days)CARDOSO DAVID 124 5.00    
 
ARP-4   10/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLLIER Oct11 Sep01 Aug03 Jul11 Jun23 (rushton te)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 8.00 11% 7.80    
SCR  MS BUMBLEBEE Oct05 Aug25 Jul29 Jun14 Aug26 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 116 2.50    
3  CREAM PUFF REAPER Oct11 Sep27 Sep14 Aug13 Jul06 (hibdon n)HAAR NATHAN 122 2.00 33% 2.00    
4  LITTLE MORE LOVE Oct12 Sep01 Aug18 Jul20 Apr12 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00    
5  SWEET SLEW Oct12 Sep01 Aug23 Jun19 May22 (arceo salvado)CARDOSO DAVID 124 5.00 14% 6.00    
6  KONA KINLEY Oct11 Sep27 Sep13 Jun23 Jun15 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 122 3.50    
7  MOR FOXY Sep27 Sep13 Aug26 Aug18 Jul29 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 122 4.50    
 
ARP-5   10/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAMES'S MOONSHINE Oct18 Sep27 Sep15 Aug23 Aug16 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00    
2  RIVERSPORT Oct19 Oct05 Sep28 Sep13 Sep07 (ibanez alberto)ARANA MINOR 124 8.00    
3  BIG BIZ Oct12 Sep13 Jul21 Jun16 May17 (haar robe)IRONEYES R 119 4.50 19% 4.20    
4  OREGON COUNTY Oct04 Sep13 Sep07 Jul21 Jun30 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.00 7% 13.40    
5  ROCHESTER'S FINEST Oct11 Sep22 Sep08 Aug31 Aug18 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 2.50 44% 1.30    
6  GOLD CRUSHER Oct04 Sep15 Sep01 Aug03 Jul27 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50    
7  MUSKET POWDER Oct11 Sep21 Sep02 Aug24 Aug18 (scudder rick)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-6   10/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSIE'S BOY Oct12 Sep21 Sep15 Sep06 Aug18 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 5.00 11% 8.40    
2  EMPEROR'S CHOICE Oct06 Sep07 Sep01 Aug24 Aug18 (leon alexis)ARANA MINOR 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  TAPIT DOWN Oct13 Sep28 Sep06 Jun13 May17 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 12.00    
4  BLUEGRASS BREEZE Oct12 Sep27 Apr26 Apr14 Mar23 (curran randy)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 49% 1.00    
5  SHARP AZ NAILS Oct12 Sep28 Sep02 Aug17 Jul28 (thompson )IRONEYES R 119 4.50    
6  FLOOR IT Oct06 Sep13 Sep08 Aug18 Jul19 (arceo salv)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00    
7  FLY NIGHTLY Oct11 Sep28 Sep05 Aug25 Aug04 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50 13% 7.00    
 
ARP-7   10/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Lassie Purse ($45.5K) 2 F PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STOLEN FUNDS Oct13 Sep28 Sep08     (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 120 4.50    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
2  SAHARA KARA Jul20         (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 120 2.00 32% 2.10    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of SANDHILL LADY by OLIVER'S TWIST)
3  FRIENDLY SPIRIT Sep08 Aug09 Jul21 Jul07 Jun23 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 2.50    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SMART STING by SMART STRIKE)
4  ALLIYAS CREATION Sep28 Sep08 Aug11 Jun29   (martinez a)RAMOS B 120 6.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of ALLIYA'S STORY by SUPER SAVER)
5  LADY ADMIRAL Oct13         (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 120 3.50 28% 2.50    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of CELEE by CONGAREE)
6  GOLDEN BEAUTY Sep28 Sep08 Aug11     (martinez )IRONEYES R 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of JUST FUNNIN' YA by CITY ZIP)
 
ARP-8   10/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEW YEARS LOVE Sep27 Sep15 Sep11 Sep03 Aug13 (jenkins re)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  MY MEADOW Oct06 Sep03 Aug21 Jul30 Jul08 (hall monk)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  KID BIZ Oct12 Sep20 Sep09 Aug19 Aug11 (arceo salvador)RAMOS B 124 6.00    
4  EARLY APRIL Oct13 Aug31 Aug17 Aug04 Jul14 (mckinney kyn)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 15.00 13% 6.80    
5  RETRO RITA Oct13 May27 Apr27 Apr12 Mar22 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50    
6  LOW DOSE Oct11 Sep22 Sep08 Aug30 Aug17 (mitchell chr)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 3.50 63% 0.60    
SCR  DESERT PEPPER Oct20 Sep11 Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 (marquez jos)VORRATH VALENTE 124 15.00    
8  TAP THE HEART Oct13 Sep15 Sep01 Jul27 Jul13 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50    
9  CAJUN TRINITY Oct13 Jul08 Jun24 Jun18 May13 (vargas jose)BACHICHA ELIJAH 124 8.00    
10  PRINCESSOFCHITOWN Oct04 Sep20 Sep07 Sep01 Aug18 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
SCR  BEHOLD THAT WORD Oct19 Oct06 Sep21 Jul18 Oct03 (rushton s)IRONEYES R 116 12.00    
12  TOTHEMOONANDBACK Sep27 Aug24 Aug04 Jul13 Jun22 (lavanway dayson)LARSEN S 124 10.00 ★    
 
ARP-9   10/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Laddie Purse ($30K) 2 C/G PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROMANS WORD         (rushton s)IRONEYES R 120 4.00 13% 6.50    
  (by ROMAN GLADIATOR out of FINAL WORD by CLOSING ARGUMENT)
2  KOSARI Sep29         (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 2.00 58% 0.70    
  (by AUDIBLE out of CONJURESS by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  ROMAN EYES         (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 120 6.00    
  (by ROMAN GLADIATOR out of CLOSE YOUR EYES by NOT FOR LOVE)
4  KING OF SWING Sep29 Sep13 Aug17 Jul22 Jun28 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 120 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SHE'S GIFTED by FLATTER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.