Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Wednesday - November 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/5)-(2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/5)-(7/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5)-(7/5/3)-(4/9/3/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-2   WIN (7/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/3)-(7/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/3)-(7/5/3)-(7/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/3)-(4/9/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/5/3)-(4/9/3/8)-(1/4/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-3   WIN (4/9/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/9/3/8)-(4/9/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/9/3/8)-(4/9/3/8)-(4/9/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/9/3/8)-(1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/9/3/8)-(1/4/7)-(6/5/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-4   WIN (1/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/7)-(1/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/7)-(1/4/7)-(1/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/7)-(6/5/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/7)-(6/5/7)-(5/9/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CT-5   WIN (6/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/7)-(6/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/7)-(6/5/7)-(6/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/7)-(5/9/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/5/7)-(5/9/2)-(5/1/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CT-6   WIN (5/9/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/9/2)-(5/9/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/9/2)-(5/9/2/4)-(5/9/2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/9/2)-(5/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/9/2)-(5/1/3)-(4/3/8/9/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CT-7   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/3)-(4/3/8/9/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CT-8   WIN (4/3/8/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/3/8/9/1)-(4/3/8/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/3/8/9/1)-(4/3/8/9/1)-(4/3/8/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   11/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I LOVE MARIA Oct26 Sep30 Sep13 Dec14 Nov23 (ovando melvin)LOPEZ ANTONIO 124 10.00 21% 3.70    
2  PLANET FROLIC Nov02 Oct18 Sep29 Jun04 Apr15 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 121 0.40 40% 1.50    
3  BEST WORST IDEA Nov18 Nov03 Oct25 Sep30 Aug23 (ramirez jos)MENDEZ MARSHALL 121 6.00    
4  NINETY PROOF Oct06 Sep02 Jul29 Apr20 Mar16 (groves janice)RIOS-CONDE A 122 12.00    
5  DREAM OF GOLD Nov17 Apr28 Dec08 Nov17 Oct28 (haynes m)RODRIGUEZ V 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  IVY WAY Sep22 Aug30 Jul12 Jun09 Oct29 (saleem gor)MENDOZA JHONATAN 124 20.00    
7  VIENNA'S TWIRL Oct18 Sep24 Aug17 Apr15   (keller christophe)HO WESLEY 121 5.00    
 
CT-2   11/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IHEARTRAINACOMN Nov04 Oct13 Sep23 Sep02 Aug12 (dollinger-st)BATISTA A 120 4.00    
2  PHILMARY CASTLE Oct13 Sep23 Aug12 Jul01 May26 (bourne j)LARROSA G 120 15.00    
3  NEW AGE BAD GIRL Nov01 Apr29 Apr08 Mar18 Mar11 (hamlin kathleen )MAWING A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  LUZIA Sep23 Aug25 Jul22 Jul01 Jun10 (gazzier k)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 118 8.00    
5  SPARKLEINYOUREYE Nov04 Oct13 Sep09 Sep02 Aug12 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 118 3.00 12% 7.10    
6  KAALA Nov02 Sep02       (contre)LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 1.40    
7  O K SMARTY PANTS Nov17 Nov01       (sterling michae)PELTROCHE F 120 5.00 62% 0.60    
 
CT-3   11/29/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S A BRICKHOUSE Nov04 Oct13 Oct28     (hamlin e)LARROSA G 121 10.00    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of BENEDICTA by ORIENTATE (GB))
SCR  BABY BREEZE Nov04         (joy j)ARAUJO DENIS 121 12.00    
  (by GANDHI out of BABY LEXI by STORM BOOT)
3  COLD CASH         (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 121 10.00 10% 9.10    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of WHERE'S MY MONEY by PETIONVILLE)
4  PRINCESS MARGARET Nov02 Oct13       (grams tim)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 121 5.00 25% 3.00    
  (by KOBE'S BACK out of PRINCESSOFTHELAND by EL CORREDOR)
5  RIGHT TO REFUSE Nov04 Sep08       (carlisle jo)MENDEZ MARSHALL 121 1.20    
  (by REDESDALE out of TAKE A VOW by PULPIT)
6  TRUE BUCKPASSING         (sanderson wade )RODRIGUEZ V 121 10.00    
  (by AARON'S WAY out of METAL FIRECRACKER by LITE THE FUSE)
7  MACHEN MARGARITAS Nov04 Oct03 Jun06     (carlisle john)RIVERA JAVIER 121 15.00    
  (by MACHEN out of GRAPEFRUIT LEAGUE by LATENT HEAT)
8  TRUE INDY         (sanderson wade )PELTROCHE F 121 10.00 10% 9.10    
  (by AARON'S WAY out of BOBBIE'S THE BEST by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
9  JUBA'S PUNCH         (joy j)CRUZ ANGEL 121 6.00 20% 4.00    
  (by JUBA out of SCOTTISH PUNCH by MY BOY ADAM)
 
CT-4   11/29/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KARMA BUS Nov14 Oct20 Sep29 Sep08 Aug17 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 2.50 42% 1.40    
2  BORN TO SIN Oct28 Oct07 Sep01 Aug26 Mar10 (grams tim)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 118 3.00    
3  MAGICAL SURPRISE Oct20 Sep29       (walters l)PELTROCHE F 120 5.00    
4  S S MIRAGE Nov16         (lucas anthony)CHILO MAXIMO 118 4.50 31% 2.20    
5  DONNIE B Oct07 Aug26 Aug05 Jul15 Jun03 (barber donald)LOPEZ ANTONIO 120 20.00    
6  EL PACHO Oct28 Sep08 Aug17 Mar10 Feb17 (reyes d)CRUZ ANGEL 118 3.50    
7  GOLDEN ARROW (IRE) Oct28 Aug05 Jun06 Apr29 Apr08 (runco c)CULLUM W 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-5   11/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WICKED SAUCY Sep30 Sep16 Sep02 Aug12 Jul20 (calhoun amanda)CULLUM W 120 30.00    
2  SUPERSNAKE Nov03 Oct18 Sep30 Sep17 Sep08 (murtaugh andrew )MAWING A 120 10.00    
SCR  KENTUCKY REIGN Nov16 Oct05 Sep04 Aug13 Jul30 (mcmahon hu)HUMPHREY WILLIAM 120 3.00    
4  MARTHARITA Oct22 Sep14 Sep01 Mar25 Feb11 (horner )BRICENO GREGOR 120 15.00    
5  BLUE TWIRLIN Nov15 Sep29 Jul27 Jun10 May13 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 2.50 26% 2.80    
6  SKYLAR'S SISTER Nov15 Oct26 Sep01 Jul15 Jun25 (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 2.00 44% 1.30    
7  THE MONEY MACHINE Nov15 Oct18 Sep29 Sep02 Aug10 (viands st)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 6.00 6% 15.60    
8  BLUESKYSLOOKINATME Sep07 Aug24       (locklea)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 10.00    
 
CT-6   11/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKOTO Nov01 Sep16 Aug30 Aug19 Aug02 (saleem gor)MENDOZA JHONATAN 122 15.00    
2  TIMMY Nov09 Sep27 Aug11 Jul25 Jun27 (gazzier k)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  MINISTRY OF MAGIC Nov18 Oct28 Sep28 Sep02 Jul27 (rideout m)HO WESLEY 124 8.00    
4  MACHEN'S RIDGE Nov18 Oct27 Sep21 Sep09 Aug31 (ovando melvin)LOPEZ ANTONIO 124 8.00 ★    
5  REMYS SHOWTIME Nov08 Oct28 Oct14 Sep09 Sep01 (jones michae)TROTMAN KEIMAR 124 1.80 61% 0.60    
6  CHANGE YOUR LUCK Oct28 Oct07 Sep02 Jul27 Jul06 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 124 10.00    
SCR  SWAY'SINMYDNA Nov18 Nov10 Oct21 Oct01 Sep08 (serey jr)PELTROCHE F 118 12.00    
8  ROCKIN THE PALACE Sep19 Aug10 Jul19 Jul10 May30 (stites fl)BOCACHICA J 115 6.00    
9  COLT ROCK Oct16 Sep08 Aug17 Jul21 May13 (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 3.50 11% 8.20    
 
CT-7   11/29/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JEFFERSON NATIVE Nov16 Oct14 Aug25 Aug17 Jul08 (dollinger-sth)RIVERA JAVIER 124 3.50 18% 4.60    
SCR  BALI'S SHADE Nov02 Oct18 Sep01 Aug17 Jul12 (murtaugh an)MCKENZIE CONNIE 113 15.00    
3  TAP SECRET Oct07 Sep21 Aug31 Jul21 Jul08 (sandoval michae)PELTROCHE F 122 4.00 11% 7.80    
4  DERBY DAY DREAMS Oct28 Oct14 Jun17 May19 Feb23 (barber do)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 6.00    
5  CARIBBEAN PLEASURE Nov17 Sep21 Aug17 Aug04 Jul01 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 1.60 47% 1.10    
6  TIZ NO CLOWN Oct21 Aug27 Jul29 Jul01 Jun02 (atkins william )RODRIGUEZ V 118 30.00    
7  BO'S BOURBON Mar16 Feb19 Jan29 Jan14 Dec17 (magee kieron)BARBOSA JEIRON 118 5.00    
SCR  POLITICAL DECISION Nov11 Oct21 Oct13 Aug24 Aug13 (murtaug)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 30.00    
9  BRISTOL CHANNEL Nov03 Oct28 Aug27 Aug17 Jul21 (covello andrea)RIOS-CONDE A 118 20.00    
 
CT-8   11/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.7K) 3UP ALL PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROTA Nov03 Oct13 Sep29 Aug31 Aug10 (sanderson wade )PELTROCHE F 122 12.00 8% 11.20    
SCR  SULEMAN Oct18 Oct05 Sep09 Aug24 Aug03 (laguna homero)RIVERA JAVIER 120 12.00    
3  NEWS BOX Nov04 Oct12 Aug28 Jul24 May13 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 4.50 16% 5.10    
4  MONTAUK DADDY Nov03 Oct20 Sep26 Sep14 Sep01 (spriggs t)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 6.00 32% 2.10    
5  PRINCE OF FENTON Nov03 Sep02 Aug10 Jul14 Jun22 (laguna homero)BOCACHICA O 120 15.00    
6  INDIANA RED Nov01 Oct12 Sep29 Aug26 Aug05 (brown w)ARAUJO DENIS 120 8.00    
7  TOP OF THE MINT Sep21 Aug23 Nov12 Oct02 Aug19 (jones mic)BOCACHICA J 115 6.00    
8  HEY CONGRATS Nov03 Oct20 Sep30 Sep01 Jul27 (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 4.00 13% 6.70    
9  ELVIRUS Oct18 Sep29 Aug26 Jul26 Jun15 (gazzier kri)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 3.00 10% 9.20    
SCR  SOUTHERN LAD Nov18 Oct28 Aug03 Jul07 Apr20 (leaf jr)MONTANO JOSE 120 20.00    
11  NOTION TO TAPIT Nov12 Nov04 Oct20 Oct06 Sep20 (serey jr)PELTROCHE F 124 8.00    
12  CRIMSON ROCKET Oct20 Mar26 Feb24 Feb12 Jan21 (magee )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.