Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Thursday - August 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (3/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/6)-(3/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/6)-(3/1/6)-(3/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/6)-(2/3/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/6)-(2/3/4/7)-(3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
HAW-2   WIN (2/3/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/4/7)-(3/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4/7)-(3/2)-(3/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
HAW-3   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/2)-(3/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/2)-(3/1/6)-(5/4/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
HAW-4   WIN (3/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/6)-(3/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/6)-(3/1/6)-(3/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/6)-(5/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/6)-(5/4/1)-(3/7/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-5   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(3/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(3/7/1)-(6/9/7/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-6   WIN (3/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/1)-(3/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/1)-(3/7/1)-(3/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/1)-(6/9/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/1)-(6/9/7/5)-(6/8/3/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-7   WIN (6/9/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/7/5)-(6/9/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/7/5)-(6/9/7/5)-(6/9/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/7/5)-(6/8/3/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
HAW-8   WIN (6/8/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/3/1)-(6/8/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/3/1)-(6/8/3/1)-(6/8/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   08/17/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BORDER STAR Jul19 Jul08       (manley steve)CENTENO ALEXIS 124 6.00 8% 11.40    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of HARD TO READ by ALPHABET SOUP)
2  SPICY ITALIAN Jul16 Jun11 May20     (catalano m)FELIX E 120 1.40    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SILVER KITTY by NORTHERN AFLEET)
3  PACIFIC VIEW Aug03 Jul09 Jun07 May21 May11 (clay pat)GILES EMMANUEL 115 3.00 60% 0.70    
  (by UNKNOWN out of INDIA'S SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  WICKED SKY Aug03 Jul09 Jun13 Apr23 Apr02 (wainwrigh)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 8.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of BYLIA by BANDINI)
5  LIL CARRIE D Aug03 Jul16 Jun22 Jun04 May14 (slager mike)ORM CORY 120 4.50    
  (by SHAKIN IT UP out of MOONLIGHT ESCAPADE by LION HEART)
6  VOSTRA Aug03 Jul09 Jun22 Jun03 May14 (jones s)TAVARES JAVIER 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FORT LARNED out of WANDAFUL WANDAFUL by HERO'S TRIBUTE)
 
HAW-2   08/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOOTH ATTACK Jun14 May20 Apr13 Mar26 Dec30 (childers )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 4.00    
  (by FOREST ATTACK out of MAGGIE BEE by BERNSTEIN)
2  J J'S SOLUTION Aug06 Jul23 Jun29 Jun15 May28 (rednour j)LEZCANO ABEL 124 1.80 35% 1.80    
  (by REAL SOLUTION out of LITTLE RED WITCH by KITALPHA)
3  GOD GUNS N GUTS Aug06 Jul13 Jun17     (rodriguez jo)GILES EMMANUEL 119 4.50 32% 2.10    
  (by COMPETITIVE EDGE out of SARAH'S MIND by LIKE MINDED)
4  EL MUCHO Aug06 Dec30 Dec10 Nov19   (rodriguez hu)CENTENO ALEXIS 120 3.00 8% 11.20    
  (by MSHAWISH out of LEFTY'S LEGACY by CHICAGO SIX)
5  PONCHO ATTACK Jun07 Sep13 Aug16 Jul29   (childers vance)ORTIZ ALVIN 124 30.00    
  (by FOREST ATTACK out of MISS GIGI by CRIMSON CLASSIC)
6  FLYING CRICKET Aug06 Jul30 Jul06 Jun07 May07 (witthauer jo)TAVARES JAVIER 124 15.00    
  (by WEST RANGER out of FLYER'S FANTASY by EARLY FLYER)
7  JAKES CHANNEL Jun29 May11 Feb03 Dec30   (rednour jo)WEATHERLY BAILEY 110 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of SETTLING IN by GREEN DESERT)
8  LONE RETURN Aug06         (witthauer john )REYES FRANK 120 10.00    
  (by RISK AND RETURN out of SLIGO ROSE by SHORE BREEZE)
 
HAW-3   08/17/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANCIENT MAN Jun07 May04 Apr13 Mar05 Feb16 (hughes earl)ORTEGA O 124 20.00    
  (by ZIVO out of BRAND ENHANCEMENT by GIROLAMO)
2  MINING CAMP Jul05 Jun18 May21 May11 Apr23 (slager mike)ORM CORY 124 6.00 12% 7.50    
  (by GIO PONTI out of KALUGA by UNCLE MO)
3  MERLOTTI Jul27 Jul06 Jun04 May04 Apr23 (wainwright john)FELIX E 120 1.80 38% 1.60    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MISS JUNE by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  ICE AXE Jul27 Jul06 Jun15 May18 Mar15 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 124 3.50    
  (by BERNARDINI out of YOU GO WEST GIRL by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA Aug01 May28 May04     (medina robert)EMIGH A 124 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
6  BLACK RAVEN Jul30 Jun18 Jun11     (perez manny)TAVARES JAVIER 120 4.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SYSTEM TIME by GIROLAMO)
 
HAW-4   08/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($6.25K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHERRY ORCHARD Jul30 Jul19 Jul05 Jun25 Jun15 (hughes earl )GILES EMMANUEL 115 3.00 22% 3.60    
2  ONE ACE Jul18 Jul05 Jun15 Jun07 May21 (quinonez )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 8.00    
3  HANDSOFFTHEGOODS Aug10 Jun07       (block chris)COLON H 120 1.80 33% 2.00    
4  JACKPOT BOY Jul13 Jul05 Jun15 Jun07 Apr02 (perez manny)REYES FRANK 124 5.00    
5  XPRESSIR Jul29         (quinonez max)TAVARES JAVIER 120 10.00    
6  HOT CUPPA COFFEE May06         (rouss)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 2.50 19% 4.20    
 
HAW-5   08/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Outbound Ike Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOTARY Jul19 Jun22 Jun01 Apr29 Mar21 (hernandez armando)FELIX E 114 6.00 7% 12.80    
  (by STREET SENSE out of ELLESMERE by TABASCO CAT)
2  READTHECLIFFNOTES Jul13 Jun22 Jun01 Jan27 Nov13 (boyce michel)TAVARES JAVIER 116 5.00    
  (by READ THE FOOTNOTES out of LIL CORA TEE by LIL E. TEE)
SCR  TEMPER TANTRUM Jul13 Jun15 Dec26 Oct15 Aug07 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 116 4.50    
  (by FLASHBACK out of COZZY TEMPER by COZZENE)
4  SONNY SMACK Jun21 May06 Apr15 Mar11 Feb11 (lund valorie)HERNANDEZ K 116 3.50 24% 3.10    
  (by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL out of SMACK MADAM by VICTORY GALLOP)
5  BUCK MOON Jul19 Jun10 Apr29 Mar23 Jun10 (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 116 6.00 40% 1.50    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of GRAND PAULINE by TWO PUNCH)
6  GREY STREAK Jul26 Jul09 Jun17 May21 Mar10 (rodriguez hu)CENTENO ALEXIS 115 10.00    
  (by GREY SWALLOW out of ANNA CREEK by LONHRO (AUS))
SCR  ANOTHER MYSTERY May20 Apr22 Mar25 Jan28 Dec17 (block)DIAZ RAFAEL 121 2.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of IOYA TWO by LORD AT WAR (ARG))
 
HAW-6   08/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEAVENLY SCENT Aug06 Jul20 Oct16 Sep23 Sep09 (pompell r)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 15.00 10% 9.20    
2  SEQUAYA Jul27 Jul16 Jun15 Jun08 May18 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 122 12.00    
3  CRYSTAL SNOW Aug02 Jul12 Jun14 Jun08 May14 (cristel mark)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 1.80 40% 1.50    
SCR  VISIONISTA Aug02 Jul06 Jun07 Apr27 Mar25 (rodriguez ed)GILES EMMANUEL 113 3.50    
5  PRIMITY Jul18 Jul06 Jun20 May23 Apr25 (wainwright )SANTIAGO VICTOR 118 8.00    
6  MAZLAN Jun24 Jun03 May16 Apr22 Dec02 (witthauer jo)TAVARES JAVIER 122 15.00    
7  SALLY'S SUPRISE Jul13 Jun29 Jun14 May11 Apr27 (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 118 2.50 28% 2.60    
 
HAW-7   08/17/2023 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($41K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MY LIPS ARE SEALED Jul27 Jun22 Jun01 Mar17 Feb18 (block chris)EMIGH A 122 3.50    
SCR  GET NONE May25 Oct16 Jul17 May20 May07 (rodriguez hugo)PEREZ EDGAR 122 10.00    
3  MISS MELODY Jul12 Jun21 Mar06 Feb17 Sep11 (clay pat)GILES EMMANUEL 117 12.00    
4  LIPLINER Jul27 Jun18 Apr30 Mar23 Dec10 (child)DIAZ RAFAEL 122 15.00    
5  JUST A WONDER Jul27 Jun18 May20 Apr25 Apr09 (manley steve)ORM CORY 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  GOLDEN BELL May12 Aug01 May15     (cox h)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 1.80 44% 1.30    
7  CHROME ATTACK Jul27 Jun29 Jun08 Apr23 Dec18 (childers van)TAVARES JAVIER 122 6.00 14% 6.10    
8  RACEDAY ATTIRE Jul27 Jul05 Jun11 Apr23 Apr02 (witthauer joh)HERNANDEZ K 122 15.00    
9  FIRST KITTEN Jul26 Jul12 Jun11 May31 May07 (meraz antoni)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 10.00 17% 4.90    
 
HAW-8   08/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($41K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RONAN Jul20 Jul05 Jun07 May21 May14 (quinonez )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR Jul27 Jul05 May26 Mar12 Jan16 (rodriguez hugo)PEREZ EDGAR 122 15.00    
3  BERAVINA Jul05 Jun18 May23 Dec09 Nov11 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 6.00 10% 9.10    
SCR  OFF RAMP Jul26 Jun07 Apr30 Apr22 Mar24 (rosin)DIAZ RAFAEL 122 2.00    
5  WHITE LIES Jul06 Jun14 May21 Apr30 Dec02 (miller patt)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 3.50    
6  ALBERTA SUN Aug01 Jun27 Jun09 Apr22 Mar18 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 122 5.00 54% 0.90    
7  SOMEONE SAID SO Nov15 Oct02 Jul17 Jul08 Jun19 (rosin w)HERNANDEZ K 122 8.00    
8  SAY CHEESE Jul22 Aug19 Jun24 Jun10 May10 (mcdonnell be)TAVARES JAVIER 122 6.00 13% 6.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.