Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Wednesday - July 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (5/1/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/4/3)-(5/1/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/4/3)-(5/1/4/3)-(5/1/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/4/3)-(2/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4/3)-(2/1/6)-(1/6/5/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-2   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/6)-(1/6/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6)-(1/6/5/3)-(6/2/3/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-3   WIN (1/6/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/3)-(1/6/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/3)-(1/6/5/3)-(1/6/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/5/3)-(6/2/3/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5/3)-(6/2/3/4)-(6/3/4/9/1) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
HAW-4   WIN (6/2/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/4)-(6/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/4)-(6/2/3/4)-(6/2/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/4)-(6/3/4/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/4)-(6/3/4/9/1)-(2/7/1/3) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
HAW-5   WIN (6/3/4/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/3/4/9/1)-(6/3/4/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/3/4/9/1)-(6/3/4/9/1)-(6/3/4/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/3/4/9/1)-(2/7/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/3/4/9/1)-(2/7/1/3)-(4/6/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
HAW-6   WIN (2/7/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/1/3)-(2/7/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/1/3)-(2/7/1/3)-(2/7/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/1/3)-(4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/1/3)-(4/6/2)-(4/8/11/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
HAW-7   WIN (4/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/2)-(4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/2)-(4/8/11/6/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
HAW-8   WIN (4/8/11/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/11/6/7)-(4/8/11/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/11/6/7)-(4/8/11/6/7)-(4/8/11/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   07/19/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($17.5K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITTLE STEVEN Jul05 Jun01 Apr14 Jan21 Dec16 (winebaugh cher)COLON H 120 4.00 20% 3.90    
2  RUSSIAN STANDARD Jun29 Jun15 May28 May11   (perez man)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 4.50    
3  CHERRY ORCHARD Jul05 Jun25 Jun15 Jun07 May21 (hughes w)ORTIZ ALVIN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY Jun07 Nov27 Oct22     (block chr)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 3.00 11% 8.00    
5  ELECTRIC CHARGE Jul05 Jun08 May21 Apr30 Apr02 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 124 2.50 48% 1.10    
6  MARCHING ORDERS Jun10 May27 Apr30     (wainwright john)EMIGH A 120 15.00    
7  ARMAVIR Jul12 May28 May18     (perez manny)BLANCHE RISHAWN 113 6.00    
 
HAW-2   07/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAITHFUL RULER Jun15 May19 Apr25 Mar18 Feb18 (watkins m)FELIX E 122 4.50 16% 5.40    
2  BLOW TORCH Jun26 May31 Apr28 Apr16 Mar23 (rosin w)HERNANDEZ K 124 2.00 43% 1.30    
3  PLAUSIBLE DENILE Jul09 Jun01 Mar03 Feb10 Jan13 (divito james)GILES EMMANUEL 117 3.50    
4  DASH TO THE CASH Jun07 May07 Apr16 Mar26 Mar09 (lindsay rick)EMIGH A 122 8.00    
SCR  TEE BURNS Jul09 May31 May18 May09 Apr16 (watkins jame)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 4.00    
6  TIMEHASCOME Jun21 Jun04 May25 May04 Apr27 (hernandez arma)COLON H 122 5.00 11% 8.50    
 
HAW-3   07/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SANTINO'S FANTASY Jul06 May31 May21 May04 Apr07 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
2  UNCLE NICK Jun25 Jun04 May25 Apr20 Apr02 (rodriguez ed)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 6.00    
3  FAITHFUL KING Jun06 May14 Apr27 Apr09 Mar26 (watkins m)ORTIZ ALVIN 118 8.00 12% 7.70    
4  PINBALLER Jul06 Jun22 Jun14 May25 Apr20 (poulos dee)GILES EMMANUEL 117 4.50    
5  IRONMAN RICHIE Jun08 May25 May04 Apr20 Mar30 (rodriguez edu)HERNANDEZ K 122 3.50 12% 7.40    
6  TEA WITH LEMON Jun14 May28 Apr13 Mar26 Mar05 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 122 3.00 18% 4.50    
7  TEA AFTER BALLET Jul06 Jun25 Jun08 May25 May18 (zawitz joel)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 15.00    
 
HAW-4   07/19/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STORM BORN Jul05 Jun01 May18 Dec17 Dec09 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 122 6.00    
2  SOUPER FORTUNE Jul06 Jun21 Jun04 May11 Apr09 (campbell joel)COLON H 122 3.00 20% 4.00    
3  MOVE ON OVER Jun22 May21 Apr23 Mar23 Mar12 (becker scott)EMIGH A 122 3.50 18% 4.50    
4  FLYING SAMURAI Jun22 Jun04 Nov02 Sep29 Aug29 (ryan a)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 8.00 15% 5.80    
5  SONO GRATO Jul04 Apr15 Mar31 Feb18 Feb10 (scalcione )SIMPSON M 122 4.50    
6  EMPTY HOLSTER Jul04 Jun17 May30 May16 May02 (martinez ra)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 5.00 24% 3.10    
7  MEATLOAF'S CHANCE Jul05 Jun07 May18 May08 Mar30 (gonzalez lili)HERNANDEZ K 124 6.00    
 
HAW-5   07/19/2023 3300ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($20K) Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALPAIS Jun15 May25 Apr30 Mar12 Dec31 (villa franci)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  SIERRA HOTEL Jun22 May21 Mar05 Jan19 Jan05 (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 124 6.00    
3  UPBEAT MELODY May23 May09 Apr25 Mar12 Nov13 (manley steve)ORM CORY 122 3.50 33% 2.00    
4  REAL NEWS Dec16 Nov27 Oct13 Sep05 Aug27 (martinez ralp)HERNANDEZ K 122 8.00 8% 11.30    
5  STALLONE Jul04 Jun13 Apr13 Mar16 Dec31 (retana gabe)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 20.00    
6  IAN GLASS Jun01 May21 Mar18 Jan28 Dec21 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 4.00 35% 1.80    
SCR  TWO WORLDS Jun21 May31 Apr12 Mar16 Feb03 (vanden bri)REYES ANGEL 122 6.00    
8  NILES CHANNEL Mar10 Jan22 Dec17 Nov24 Nov05 (tracy tanner)GILES EMMANUEL 117 15.00    
9  GRAND HIDEAWAY May28 Mar30 Dec17 Nov26 Nov13 (reid r)COLON H 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  AZRAEL Jul05 Nov18 Oct22 Jul01 Jun24 (bahena fern)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 20.00    
11  ONE PUTT RICHIE Jun01 Apr25 Sep23 Aug26 Aug12 (laux clay)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 12.00    
 
HAW-6   07/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANGEL EXPRESS Jun11 Nov12       (childers )ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 5.00 6% 17.10    
  (by ADIOS CHARLIE out of HI HANNAH by BERNSTEIN)
2  GUSTAVI Apr22 Mar26       (lopez elias)HERNANDEZ K 120 1.80 53% 0.90    
  (by TAPWRIT out of IT'S MO TIME by UNCLE MO)
3  COMMISSIONER GULCH Jun13 May30 May16     (becker scott)EMIGH A 120 8.00 5% 18.60    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of GUIDDY GULCH by THUNDER GULCH)
4  GOLD OAK         (reavis l)FELIX E 120 6.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of LIVE OAKS LEGACY by GULCH)
5  BORDER STAR Jul08         (manley steve)ORM CORY 124 8.00    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of HARD TO READ by ALPHABET SOUP)
6  FLYING COMET Jun07         (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 120 12.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of STRIKE UPA SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  IT'S MAGIC Jun17         (winebaugh cher)COLON H 120 2.50 15% 5.90    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of HONOUR ISABEL by HONOUR AND GLORY)
 
HAW-7   07/19/2023 5490ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($41K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MILLARD'S SMILE Jun22 Jun04 May26 May14 Apr27 (rodriguez edu)HERNANDEZ K 122 12.00    
2  NOTARY Jun22 Jun01 Apr29 Mar21 Mar12 (mason ingrid)FELIX E 124 4.00 9% 10.10    
3  SILVER QUARTERS Jun22 Jun01 May11 Apr16 Dec11 (manley steve)ORM CORY 122 8.00    
4  BUCK MOON Jun10 Apr29 Mar23 Jun10 May13 (rivelli larr)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 2.50 35% 1.80    
5  TREASURY Jul01 Mar25 Feb11 Jan14 Dec17 (forster g)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 4.50    
6  EMPIRE BUILDER May11 Apr13 Jan21 Dec30 Oct27 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 3.50 31% 2.30    
SCR  LYKAN Jun14 May25 Jan06 Oct01 Jul24 (mason ingrid)GILES EMMANUEL 117 6.00    
 
HAW-8   07/19/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($15K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ARROW STRIKE Jun27 Jun13 Apr13 Sep06 Aug26 (butler gerald)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 12.00    
2  BRODY'S FLY Jul05 Apr06 Feb24 Jan26 Dec29 (lopez elias)HERNANDEZ K 122 10.00    
3  STRIKE PRICE Jun25 Jun07 May18 Apr27 Apr06 (shephard )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 8.00    
4  STORM'S REFLECTION Jul05 Jun07 May18 Apr06 Mar19 (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 122 3.00 35% 1.80    
SCR  ROUGH JUSTICE Jul06 Jun18 Jun25     (rodriguez h)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 20.00    
6  BAILEYS RUN Sep07 Aug24 Aug02 Jun01 May11 (granitz anth)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 6.00 8% 11.50    
7  CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN Jun18 May14 Dec30 Dec18 Nov27 (young terry )GILES EMMANUEL 117 20.00 6% 14.60    
8  LAWMAKER Jul05 Jun07 May15 Apr29 Nov19 (manley st)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 5.00 20% 3.90    
9  I'M YOUR CAPTAIN Jun18 May28 May11 Apr16 Feb20 (robertson hugh)EMIGH A 122 8.00    
10  PAYNT BY LETTERS Jun27 Jun10 May27 Apr29   (manley steve)ORM CORY 118 15.00    
11  KINGSBURRY ATTACK Jun21 Jun07 May18 Apr29 Oct07 (childers vance)FELIX E 122 10.00 9% 10.40    
SCR  IZEONDEC May18 Apr13 Feb24 Jan28 Jan13 (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 122 15.00    
SCR  KING ZION Jul05 Jun15 Apr27 Apr02 Mar23 (perez manny)BLANCHE RISHAWN 115 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.