Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday - April 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/2)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/2)-(7/3/1/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/2)-(7/3/1/2)-(7/2/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-2   WIN (7/3/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/1/2)-(7/3/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/1/2)-(7/3/1/2)-(7/3/1/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/1/2)-(7/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/1/2)-(7/2/5)-(3/4/7/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-3   WIN (7/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/5)-(7/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/5)-(7/2/5)-(7/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/2/5)-(3/4/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/5)-(3/4/7/2)-(2/7/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-4   WIN (3/4/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/7/2)-(3/4/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/7/2)-(3/4/7/2)-(3/4/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/7/2)-(2/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/7/2)-(2/7/3)-(2/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-5   WIN (2/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/3)-(2/7/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/7/3)-(2/7/3/1)-(2/7/3/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/7/3)-(2/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/7/3)-(2/4/6)-(4/1/7/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-6   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(4/1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6)-(4/1/7/6)-(3/2/9/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-7   WIN (4/1/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/7/6)-(3/2/9/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/1/7/6)-(3/2/9/5)-(10/1/9/5/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-8   WIN (3/2/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/9/5)-(3/2/9/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/2/9/5)-(3/2/9/5/1)-(3/2/9/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/2/9/5)-(10/1/9/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TAM-9   WIN (10/1/9/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/1/9/5/7)-(10/1/9/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/1/9/5/7)-(10/1/9/5/7)-(10/1/9/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   04/15/2023 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 3UP M/F PT-12:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUSHING KEYLEN Mar15 Feb10 Jan22 Jan07 Sep16 (hayford jennifer)BUSH V 124 12.00    
2  PROVOCATIVA Apr07 Feb15 Jan26 Jan13 Dec28 (crich)DIAZ RAFAEL 124 1.40 13% 6.80    
SCR  I'LL GO ALL IN Mar15 Feb24 Jan29 Jan04 Dec10 (romero rafa)QUINONEZ ALONSO 124 3.50 34% 2.00    
4  DEESSE Mar15 Feb25 Mar26 Mar06 Feb23 (dominguez lui)ALICEA JEREMY 117 20.00    
5  LA BRODY Apr07 Mar15 Jan27 Dec24 Dec09 (cascallares ne)MARIN SAMUEL 124 10.00 ★    
6  RIPLEY EFFECT Mar19 Mar04 Feb17 Feb01 Jan15 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 126 2.00 29% 2.50    
7  R D BLESSING Jan27 Jan01 Dec23 Dec14   (drake robert)MENESES MARCOS 124 15.00    
 
TAM-2   04/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 3UP M/F PT-12:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAW HONEY Mar31 Feb18 Feb04 Jan18 Jan07 (roque elis)LOPEZ E 123 8.00 5% 17.90    
2  TRULY A DREAM Mar25 Mar18 Jan28 Jan08 Dec14 (posadas pedr)BATISTA A 123 4.50 5% 19.00    
3  SO SOFTLY Apr07 Mar15 Jan06 Sep24 Sep16 (smith r)SOSA LAUREANO 118 2.00 15% 5.80    
4  JUST LIKE INDY Apr24 Apr09 Mar06 Feb23 Jan23 (lusk r)FUENTES MARIO 123 12.00    
5  BOURN WILD AGAIN Feb23 Jan09       (bennett gerald)MARIN SAMUEL 123 12.00    
6  STARSHIP PRECIOUS Mar18 Mar05 Feb04 Sep12 Aug20 (ferraro anth)CASTANON L 123 10.00    
7  GLEAMING BRUTALITY Mar25 Mar01 Jan15 Sep24 Aug22 (klesaris)GALLARDO A 125 1.60 55% 0.80    
 
TAM-3   04/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORE DRAMA Mar12 Feb05 Jan22 Jan08 Sep11 (hardesty l)MITCHELL RICHARD 120 6.00    
2  CAPE COD SUMMER         (santillana )QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 12.00 13% 6.90    
3  ALL ABOUT LUCKY Mar17 Mar04 Jan12 Sep17 Aug17 (rodriguez an)MENESES MARCOS 120 2.50    
4  DISCREET DEVIL Mar12 Feb05 Jan04 Aug29 Aug08 (ochoa gerard)ARROYO S 120 5.00    
5  BARONS BLITZ         (wasiluk peter )ALLEN D 120 15.00 13% 6.90    
6  MOCCASIN BEND Mar29         (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.50    
7  HELLO SUCKER Mar31 Mar10 Feb05 Nov27 Nov05 (mcgoey monic)BATISTA A 120 3.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  MIKES MYTH         (seale christoph)MENA E 120 10.00 13% 6.90    
 
TAM-4   04/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($17K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAPSOLUTION Feb19 Feb08 Jan13 Dec22 Dec09 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 119 12.00    
2  FLIPPING FISH Mar15 Mar05 Feb19 Feb08 Jan22 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 119 6.00 8% 10.90    
3  KITCHEN FIRE Apr01 Mar15 Feb19 Jan14 Dec08 (raven kerri)CASTANON L 121 2.00 41% 1.40    
4  BAZOO Apr02 Mar15 Feb17 Jan25 Dec31 (carrascojr )QUINONEZ ALONSO 123 4.00 10% 9.10    
5  IMTAKINITTOTHEBANK Mar15 Feb19 Feb08 Jan27 Jan07 (torres pablo )ALICEA JEREMY 112 10.00    
6  HIT BY A WAVE Mar29 Nov14 Oct18 Oct03 Sep12 (philipp karyn)CAMACHO SAMY 119 10.00    
7  WELL CONNECTED Mar10 Dec11 Nov29 Jun30 Jun11 (march william)BUSH V 119 3.00 10% 9.30    
8  SCHOCHOH Mar31 Feb19 Feb05 Nov13 Sep09 (smith r)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 12.00    
 
TAM-5   04/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORENA DANCER Apr01 Mar15 Mar01 Feb08 Jan22 (marre)DIAZ RAFAEL 122 8.00 ★    
2  IRISH KITTEN Apr01 Mar10 Feb24 Feb12 Jan04 (arriagada juan)CAMACHO SAMY 122 1.40 42% 1.40    
3  HURRY UP DEAR Apr01 Feb08 Jan01 Dec07 Sep17 (wilson tony)ALICEA JEREMY 115 6.00 15% 5.70    
4  SOPHIA LAUREN Jun02 Apr27 Mar28 Mar02   (sweezey j)RODRIGUEZ A 122 15.00    
5  LOOKIN AT KISSES Mar01 Feb08 Feb01 Dec30   (ubide max)ALLEN D 122 10.00    
6  LIVELY REMARK Apr01 Mar10 Jan29 Jan15 Dec28 (nunn douglas)SUAREZ ANGEL 122 4.50    
7  QUEEN DE LA CREME Feb09 Jul30 Jul02 Jun09   (rice kevin)FERRER C 122 4.50 19% 4.40    
8  BYZANTINE EMPIRE Apr05 Feb24 Feb17 Jan22 Dec22 (burns patricia)SUAREZ JESUS 122 15.00    
 
TAM-6   04/15/2023 5400ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($32K) 3 ALL PT- 3:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAUGHTANDCOLLECTED Apr01 Jan28 Dec07 Nov04 Sep10 (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 118 10.00    
2  THIS RUN'S FOR YOU Mar26 Feb18 Jan21 Sep03 Aug06 (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 2.50 46% 1.20    
SCR  MIKEY BANANAS Mar11 Feb12 Jan21 Dec21 Sep14 (hamm timo)RODRIGUEZ A 118 1.80 12% 7.20    
4  ROSES BY LIAM Mar31 Mar11 Feb04 Sep10 Aug18 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 3.50 14% 6.30    
5  ESTILO MAGICO Mar22 Feb01 Jan14     (arriagada juan)MARIN SAMUEL 118 6.00    
6  DAWGMENTALITY Mar15 Oct25 Oct04 Sep07 Aug22 (potts g)WALKER M 118 15.00 7% 12.90    
SCR  DECEITFUL Mar22 Feb12 Jan08 Dec07 Sep12 (hamm timothy)SUAREZ ANGEL 118 10.00    
 
TAM-7   04/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($27K) 3 F PT- 3:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE Mar22 Feb23 Jan25 Aug20   (dini mike)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.50 10% 8.70    
SCR  PRINCESS CHESSIE Sep02 Jul23       (galvan baltazar)LOPEZ E 118 5.00 25% 3.00    
3  DAMASO Mar29 Feb18 Jan22 Oct03 Sep01 (hamm timothy)ARROYO S 118 15.00    
4  TALL GIRL Mar12 Jan18 Dec16 Nov06 Oct12 (clement christ)CAMACHO SAMY 118 1.60 34% 1.90    
5  GO MIKA Mar22 Feb17 Jan21 Jan04 Dec22 (wilson tony)MARIN SAMUEL 118 20.00    
6  YES DAY Mar18 Jan14 Dec17 Oct03 Sep05 (wismer glenn )WALKER M 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  FACCIA BELLA Apr01 Mar11 Feb25 Feb11 Jan18 (raven ke)GALLARDO A 120 2.00 6% 16.00    
8  DANCE STEP Mar18 Jan22 Dec17 Aug21 Jul16 (wilson tony)ALICEA JEREMY 111 20.00    
9  HEAVENS EXPRESS Mar08 Feb18 Dec10 Nov04 Oct07 (guciardo kathy)FERRER C 118 10.00    
 
TAM-8   04/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY BIG DRAMA Apr05 Mar10 Feb22 Feb12 Jan22 (dobber arn)MITCHELL RICHARD 125 8.00 ★    
2  NOT A DANCE Mar29 Mar04 Feb18 Jan28 Jan11 (smith robert)MENESES MARCOS 125 3.00 29% 2.40    
3  THE SWAYZE EXPRESS Mar25 Mar08 Feb15 Jan27 Jan13 (potts g)ALLEN D 118 3.50 37% 1.70    
4  GOD GIVEN RIGHTS Apr02 Mar18 Feb05 Jan18   (seale christopher)BUSH V 118 12.00    
5  PERFECT MOON         (cascallare)ALONSO LUIS 118 12.00 6% 16.10    
6  OZAH Apr02 Feb22 Dec14     (nunn douglas)FUENTES MARIO 123 30.00    
7  PEINADITO Mar10 Feb08 Jan21 Jan08 Dec11 (tsirigotis jam)SUAREZ JESUS 125 12.00    
SCR  RED'S MR Z Mar18 Feb26 Sep01 Aug18   (rarick lynn)SOSA LAUREANO 111 20.00    
9  HAPPYIZE Feb15 Apr23 Feb19     (klesaris)GALLARDO A 125 2.50 8% 12.30    
10  DEACON ELI Mar18 Feb26 Feb12 Jan18 May31 (tsirigotis jr)DIAZ S 125 10.00    
 
TAM-9   04/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($27K) 3 F PT- 4:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUN BEE Mar05 Jan29 Dec26 Sep09 Aug16 (motion h)GALLARDO A 120 2.50 18% 4.50    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of SPOOKY KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
2  MYSTERIOUS STARE Mar11 Jul02       (albertrani thom)CENTENO E 120 15.00    
  (by TAPIZAR out of NO MEANS NO by POLICE CAR)
SCR  BELLA FACCIA Mar24 Mar11 Feb11     (ciaio a)FERRER C 120 20.00    
  (by LONG ON VALUE out of FAERIE QUEENE by TIME FOR A CHANGE)
4  MISSMOLLYORBIT Mar11 Feb11       (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 12.00    
  (by ORB out of MISSMOLLYBYGOLLY by SCAT DADDY)
5  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE Mar11 Jan22 Nov19 Oct01 Aug28 (harty eoin)CASTANON L 120 6.00 10% 8.60    
  (by JUSTIFY out of BOW BELLS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  OSCAR GAZE         (dini mike)RODRIGUEZ A 120 12.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of WILDCAT GAZE by WILDCAT HEIR)
7  ROMAN FLAME Mar26 Feb25 Jan14 Nov10 Oct13 (sanchez amad)MENESES MARCOS 120 4.00 8% 11.30    
  (by FROSTED (GB) out of ROMANA RULER by ROMAN RULER)
8  FLYLIKEABUTTERFLY (IRE) Mar26         (sweezey ke)BATISTA A 120 20.00    
  (by KINGMAN (GB) out of PARVANEH (IRE) by UNKNOWN)
9  ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR Mar26 Feb11 Oct12     (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 8.00 13% 6.60    
  (by VIOLENCE out of ORIENT HARBOR by FIRST SAMURAI)
10  ENGLISHED Feb25         (brown c)CAMACHO SAMY 120 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of JOYFUL DREAMS by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  PARTY DREAM Mar04 Jan29 Jan01     (barbazoniii lest)BRACHO A 120 20.00    
  (by JESS'S DREAM out of PEGGY JOYCE by AFTER MARKET)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.