Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday - March 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

TAM-1   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2/3/7/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (4/2)-(4/2/3/7/1)-(4/2/3/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/2)-(5/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(5/3)-(6/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TAM-2   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3)-(5/3/6/4)-(5/3/6/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5/3)-(6/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(6/1/8)-(8/6/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TAM-3   WIN (6/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/8)-(6/1/8/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/1/8)-(6/1/8/5)-(6/1/8/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/1/8)-(8/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/8)-(8/6/3)-(9/7/1/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-4   WIN (8/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/3)-(8/6/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/3)-(8/6/3/2/7)-(8/6/3/2/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/6/3)-(9/7/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/3)-(9/7/1/5)-(7/2/8/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-5   WIN (9/7/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/7/1/5)-(9/7/1/5/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/7/1/5)-(9/7/1/5/2)-(9/7/1/5/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/7/1/5)-(7/2/8/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/7/1/5)-(7/2/8/5)-(7/1/5/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-6   WIN (7/2/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/8/5)-(7/2/8/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/2/8/5)-(7/2/8/4/5)-(7/2/8/4/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/2/8/5)-(7/1/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/2/8/5)-(7/1/5/8)-(9/2/11/3/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-7   WIN (7/1/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/8)-(7/1/5/8/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/8)-(7/1/5/8/10)-(7/1/5/8/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/1/5/8)-(9/2/11/3/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5/8)-(9/2/11/3/7)-(4/5/8/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-8   WIN (9/2/11/3/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/2/11/3/7)-(9/2/11/3/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/2/11/3/7)-(9/2/11/3/7)-(9/2/11/3/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/2/11/3/7)-(4/5/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TAM-9   WIN (4/5/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/8/2)-(4/5/8/2/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/5/8/2)-(4/5/8/2/9)-(4/5/8/2/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
TAM-1   03/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 4UP M/F PT-12:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DEESSE Feb25 Mar26 Mar06 Feb23 Feb11 (dominguez lui)ALICEA JEREMY 112 20.00    
SUWANNEE CHICK Mar01 Feb15 Jan22 Jan01 Dec21 (parra)DIAZ RAFAEL 121 5.00 18% 4.70    
LA BRODY Jan27 Dec24 Dec09 Nov23 Nov12 (cascalla)GALLARDO A 119 10.00    
SO SOFTLY Jan06 Sep24 Sep16 Sep11 Aug04 (sanchez amado)SOSA LAUREANO 112 1.80 53% 0.90    
MAY BEAU Feb25 Feb10 Jan22 Jan06 Dec23 (wasiluk peter )COTTO L 119 20.00    
BLUSHING KEYLEN Feb10 Jan22 Jan07 Sep16 Aug20 (hayford jennifer)BUSH V 119 15.00    
PRETTY FLATTERING Feb25 Feb01 Dec02 Nov25 Mar03 (arriagada jua)JIMENEZ MANNY 121 1.20    
 
TAM-2   03/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($19.5K) 3 ALL PT-12:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WOW WISH Feb24         (sanchez amad)MENESES MARCOS 120 4.00 27% 2.70    
MO TOWN BLUES Mar04 Feb19       (cascallares n)ALICEA JEREMY 113 15.00    
GOLDEN SKULL         (barboza vict)BATISTA A 120 5.00 11% 8.30    
EXPANSIVE Oct07         (machado an)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 120 15.00    
CHICO CHARLIE         (o'connel)GALLARDO A 120 3.50 32% 2.10    
FALK Feb01 Jan14 Dec24 Oct12 Sep28 (hamm timothy)MORALES PABLO 120 1.40    
SOPHIA'S PRINCE Oct17         (hamm timothy)SOSA LAUREANO 113 8.00    
 
TAM-3   03/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CASTLE BORN Mar01 Feb19 Dec09 May08 Apr14 (crooks je)SCAMPTON BRITTANY 122 4.00 7% 14.10    
SYLLABUS Feb24 Feb08 Jan22 Jan04 Dec21 (dominguez luis)CAMACHO SAMY 122 3.50    
SHE IS ROYALTY Feb24 Feb01 Jan15 Dec22 Apr16 (calixto ivan)MENESES MARCOS 122 8.00    
SCR  QUEEN DE LA CREME Feb09 Jul30 Jul02 Jun09   (rice kevin)SOSA LAUREANO 115 6.00 18% 4.50    
MORENA DANCER Mar01 Feb08 Jan22 Jan04 Dec07 (marrero nesto)ALICEA JEREMY 115 15.00    
NEWYEARSPRESENT Feb24 Feb08       (chavez a)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 1.80 52% 0.90    
I'LL GO ALL IN Feb24 Jan29 Jan04 Dec10 Sep28 (romero rafael)BRACHO A 122 8.00    
AMORE MOON Mar01 Jan26 Dec23 Dec02 Oct29 (ochoa gerard)ARROYO S 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-4   03/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($27K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHARGING AERO Jan29 Jan01 Jul17 May22 Apr22 (rodriguez dari)CAMACHO SAMY 122 6.00    
BLAKENSTEIN Feb18 Jan29 Jan07 Dec22 Dec09 (guciardo kat)BATISTA A 120 6.00    
AERONAUT Feb18 Jan21 Dec17 May29 May15 (danne)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 15.00 9% 10.00    
ROGER MCQUEEN Feb15 Jan26 Dec17 Nov21   (arriagada juan)MARIN SAMUEL 118 12.00    
THE BIG CALICO Mar01 Feb11 Oct08 Sep11 Aug27 (cascallares n)ALICEA JEREMY 115 4.50    
MY MAN VITO Jan11 Dec30 Dec10 Nov02 Oct19 (rigattieri jo)MORALES PABLO 118 4.00 24% 3.10    
ASTRONAUT OSCAR Feb01 Sep17 Aug17 Jun18 May18 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 5.00    
SAN COSTANTINO Mar05 Feb17 Jan29 Jan06 Dec09 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 122 2.50 38% 1.60    
 
TAM-5   03/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($17K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
IMTAKINITTOTHEBANK Feb19 Feb08 Jan27 Jan07 Dec21 (torres pablo )ALICEA JEREMY 112 4.00 11% 8.40    
TRUSTYOURINSTINCT Feb19 Feb03 Jan19 Dec14 Nov24 (lopez r)MORALES PABLO 119 15.00    
SCR  TAPSOLUTION Feb19 Feb08 Jan13 Dec22 Dec09 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 121 10.00    
VINNIE VAN GO Feb17 Feb08 Jan22 Jan07 Dec09 (robillard ju)BATISTA A 119 6.00    
FLIPPING FISH Mar05 Feb19 Feb08 Jan22 Jan04 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 121 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SIR AGGRAVATOR Feb19 Jan22 Jan04 Dec21 Nov20 (delgado j)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00    
KITCHEN FIRE Feb19 Jan14 Dec08 Oct24 Sep26 (raven kerri)CASTANON L 123 3.50 25% 3.00    
BAZOO Feb17 Jan25 Dec31 Dec16 Nov23 (carrascojr )QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 8.00    
IN THE LOOP Feb01 Jan07       (bennett s)FERRER C 119 5.00 35% 1.80    
 
TAM-6   03/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($31.5K) 3 ALL PT- 2:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIZ A BEAST Dec07 Nov14 Oct19 Sep22   (nations keith)SUAREZ ANGEL 118 6.00    
BRIGHT FORECAST Feb18 Dec21 Nov05 Oct20 Sep10 (rigattieri jo)MORALES PABLO 118 3.00 19% 4.20    
STARSTRUCK NOTION Aug13 Jul22       (mcburney patrick)BRACHO A 118 10.00    
AZTEC LEGEND Feb24 Jan04 Oct17 Sep28   (wilson tony)MARIN SAMUEL 118 8.00    
SENTIR ZULIANO Feb12 Dec21 Oct29 Sep24 Aug29 (ochoa gerard)MENESES MARCOS 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
AWESOMEBROTHERBILL Sep22 Aug22 Jul23     (wilson tony)ARROYO S 118 10.00    
DAWGMENTALITY Oct25 Oct04 Sep07 Aug22 Jul14 (potts g)WALKER M 118 4.00 45% 1.20    
CALL ME ICE MAN Feb18 Feb02 Dec21 Sep06 Aug08 (campbell micha)CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.50 8% 12.30    
 
TAM-7   03/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16.6K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DONNA LIRICA Mar01 Feb15 Feb01 Jan01 Oct24 (cordero antonio)FERRER C 119 3.50 11% 8.30    
MAMA LONGLEGS Feb25 Feb04 Jan15 Dec28 Oct26 (harris nancy)ALENCAR WALBER 119 30.00    
MS MAGGIE Jan27 Jan07 Dec16 Dec02 Nov11 (granitz antho)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 30.00    
THEUNCAPTUREDLADY Feb25 Feb01 Jan01 Dec10 Sep05 (o'connell kath)CAMACHO SAMY 119 8.00    
FUNNY ENOUGH Feb17 Feb04 Dec28 Feb03   (russo j)LOPEZ E 119 15.00 9% 10.00    
SHEMIGHTDANCESALSA Feb01 Jan01 Dec07 Oct14 Aug14 (knoll peter )MENESES MARCOS 119 15.00    
KISSES FOR HANNAH Mar01 Feb01 Jan18 Jan01 Nov25 (lopez ro)CASTANON L 119 3.00 53% 0.90    
MYSTIC DREAMS Mar01 Feb08 Jan18 Jan07 Dec10 (mazza w)SUAREZ ANGEL 119 8.00 6% 17.00    
LIGEIA Feb24 Feb08 Jan22 Jan01 Apr23 (granitz anthon)MARIN SAMUEL 123 2.50    
10  J'S STAR JET Mar05 Feb10 Jan01 Nov12 Oct28 (hunt donald)BUSH V 119 10.00    
 
TAM-8   03/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EL POLICIA Feb17 Feb03 Jan28 Jan08 Dec28 (sacco gregory )SUAREZ ANGEL 118 6.00    
UNIQUE PATH Feb19 Mar26 Feb06 Jan23 Jan07 (dini mike)RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00 13% 6.90    
STRINGS Feb18 Dec16 Nov30 Jul23 Jul01 (arnett g)CAMACHO SAMY 122 6.00 7% 12.90    
MAGIC BOMB Feb26 Nov05 Sep10 Aug07 Jun11 (lorito mario)JIMENEZ MANNY 118 12.00    
GENERAL COMMAND Jan27 Sep11 Aug29 Aug14 Feb18 (bennett gerald)MARIN SAMUEL 118 8.00    
J T'S MY BOY Mar03 Feb15 Jan27 Jan06 Aug27 (nunez mauricio)MENDEZ KEVIN 118 8.00    
MISTER FERNANDO Feb19 Feb11 Jan28 Jan22 Dec31 (nunn douglas)ALLEN D 120 20.00 6% 16.60    
LIL BULL Feb11 Jan28 Jan08 Dec23 Nov23 (wirth kenne)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 10.00    
CANT GLIDE BY KATZ Feb11 Dec06 Nov13 Oct31 Oct17 (robillard jul)FUENTES MARIO 118 5.00 39% 1.60    
10  HIDDEN WARRIOR Dec09 Nov05 Oct14 Sep18 Aug06 (barboza vict)BATISTA A 118 4.00    
11  POSEIDONS MYTH Mar03 Jan18 Dec30 Dec02 Apr27 (ubide max)VILLA-GOMEZ H 120 10.00 11% 7.90    
12  UNCAPTURED LYON Nov23 Oct20 Sep18 Aug21   (o'connell kat)SOSA LAUREANO 111 30.00    
 
TAM-9   03/15/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($27K) 3 ALL PT- 4:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JOHNSON         (motion h)GALLARDO A 120 12.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of GERMAN EDITION by CAPE CROSS)
ALL GOOD HERE         (clement chris)MORALES PABLO 120 4.50 5% 19.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of PROFESSIONAL WOMAN by DISTINCTIVE PRO)
SCR  STORM BRAVE Feb19 Jan28       (barboza vict)BATISTA A 120 12.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of FIGURE OF BEAUTY by STREET CRY (IRE))
ANZIO Feb03         (mcgaughey clau)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.00 34% 2.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of K'S BAR BEE by PRIDE OF BURKAAN)
EQUITIZE (GB)         (brown)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by UNKNOWN out of WALDLIED by NEW APPROACH (IRE))
PIETRELCINA         (motion graha)SUAREZ ANGEL 120 10.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of STRIKING BELLA by SMART STRIKE)
SIR LANCE Feb18         (sillaman richar)CENTENO E 120 10.00    
  (by CAMELOT KITTEN out of EXCLUSIVELY YOURS by DEERHOUND)
ST. NEOTS Aug27 Jul16       (oliver victori)MARIN SAMUEL 120 8.00 15% 5.70    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of ALLIE by BAYOU HEBERT)
INSIGNIS         (harty eoin)CASTANON L 120 15.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of STORM LILY by STORM CAT)
10  DREAMING OF TOGA Feb19         (sacco gre)RODRIGUEZ A 120 10.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of GOLD ANKLET by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  AWESOME HONOR Feb19 Jan27 Jan14 Oct15   (cordero antonio)FERRER C 120 15.00    
  (by AWESOME SLEW out of HONOR AND TRUST by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.