Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - August 13, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   08/13/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUN AND FEISTY Jul23 Jul04       (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 4.00 17% 4.80    
2  ADIVA         (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
3  CONVERSATIONAL Jul22         (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00    
4  PERFECT ROSE Aug07 Jul31       (vas)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 30.00    
5  KENTUCKY REIGN Jul31         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
6  EYES OF GOLD Jul04 Jun08       (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
7  ALWAYS SMILING         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
8  MALAWNIA Jul01         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 12.00 6% 16.80    
9  BABY GOT BACKSPIN Jul01         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
10  SHE HAS THE LOOK Jul09         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
 
CD-2   08/13/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUV DRAGON Apr08         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 27% 2.80    
2  SCARLET STRIPE         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 ★    
3  ROMANCE NOVEL Jul02 Jun18       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
4  CALM INSPIRATION         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 2.50 26% 2.90    
5  NOVEMBER ROSE Aug05 Jan07       (cash l)BEJARANO R 124 30.00    
6  INTRIGUE         (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00    
7  JAG WARRIOR Jul30 Jun19 Jun04 May06 Jan14 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
8  BROADBAND Jul08 Jun18       (taylor )DE CRUZ 119 30.00    
9  TEXAS LUCKY Jul17         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 ★    
 
CD-3   08/13/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIPPODROME Aug01 Jul02 Jun17 Jun08 May28 (cash l)COURT K 120 8.00    
2  DEFIED Jul17 Jun22 Jun03 May05 Feb20 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 15.00    
3  TEPEU Jul01 Jun05 May15 Mar26 Feb19 (walsh brendan)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 ★    
4  GULFSTREAM WAY Jul10 Jun19 May29 Feb03   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 3.50 49% 1.00    
5  MEISTER Jul22 May30 Apr16 Feb12   (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 123 10.00 ★    
6  KISS PRINCIPAL Jun23 May14 Mar18 Feb20 Jan30 (hartlage g)JOHNSON M 118 30.00    
7  JELLY NOUGAT Jun30 May30 Apr22 Mar11   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 23% 3.30    
8  LEGIONNAIRE Jul16 Jun05       (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50 6% 17.00    
 
CD-4   08/13/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZEITLOS         (asmussen stev)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  WILLOW BEND         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
3  ZOOM ERIN         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
4  REVENUE TRAIN         (maker michael)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00 ★    
5  VALIANT PRAISE         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
6  BLACK FOREST Jun19 Jun03       (gutierrez fau)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 37% 1.70    
7  KEY OF LIFE (IRE) Jun25         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 38% 1.60    
8  DRE ME LESS         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
9  MARGOINABUBBLEBATH         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
10  MOODY         (brisset rodolphe)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 ★    
 
CD-5   08/13/2022 5940ft TURF RC5 GOOD Grade I Stake/Handicap Purse ($500K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DALIKA (GER) Jul16 Jun05       (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 125 8.00 ★    
  (by PASTORIUS (GER) out of DRAWN TO RUN (IRE) by HURRICANE RUN (IRE))
2  FAMILY WAY Jun10 Apr29 Apr02 Mar05   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.00 16% 5.10    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SUSIE'S BABY (GB) by BALIDAR)
3  PRINCESS GRACE Jul12 Jun18       (stidham mich)GEROUX FLORENT 125 3.00 39% 1.60    
  (by KARAKONTIE (JPN) out of MASQUERADE by PIRATE'S BOUNTY)
4  ROUGIR (FR) Jul16 Jun10 May14     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 125 2.00 ★    
  (by TERRITORIES out of SUMMER MOON (FR) by UNKNOWN)
5  LILY POND (IRE)         (o'brien aidan)VELAZQUEZ R 120 2.50 16% 5.10    
  (by GALILEO (ARG) out of ALLURINGLY by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
 
CD-6   08/13/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CALIFORNIA TWIRL         (walsh brendan)FRANCO MANUEL 119 10.00    
2  FRANK'S HONOR         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
3  CONFIDENCE GAME Jul02         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 8% 11.10    
SCR  MAKING MOVES         (barkley jason)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00    
5  AUGUSTUS BLUE Jul30         (pierce lac)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
6  GASLIGHT DANCER         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 22% 3.60    
7  TSHIEBWE         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
8  TEXCOCO         (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
9  AMERICAN DOLLARS         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
10  STORMIN ARMY Jun30         (van)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 5.00 44% 1.30    
11  SIMOVIC         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
12  ACCIDENT Jul16 Jul08 Jun26     (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
13  FATHER DELAY         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
 
CD-7   08/13/2022 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELL'S THE ONE Jun25 May07 Apr09     (pessin l)LANERIE J 120 1.40 18% 4.60    
2  SCONSIN Jun25 May30       (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.00 42% 1.40    
3  JOYFUL CADENCE Jul08 May30 Apr30 Mar20 Feb12 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00 18% 4.60    
4  LOVEMESOMEME Jun29 May29       (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 ★    
5  MUSIC CITY STAR Jun04 Apr28 Mar09 Feb17 Jan06 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 120 20.00 ★    
 
CD-8   08/13/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCRATCHOFF Jul15         (foley greg)LANERIE J 119 5.00 9% 9.60    
1A  APPEAL DENIED Jun19         (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00    
2  CALL ME FAST Jul16 Jun25       (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
3  VINCO May07 Mar26 Feb19 Jan22   (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
4  NORGAY Jul15         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 ★    
5  CHA CHA LOCO         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
6  VALE Jul15         (forster t)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 7% 13.30    
7  ORDER OF MERIT         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 5.00    
8  ENGRAVE Jun25 May20       (lobo paulo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 35% 1.80    
9  PRO OXIDANT         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
10  BOURBON ON FIRE Jun24 Jun05       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
 
CD-9   08/13/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCARLET FUSION Jul01 Jun05 Feb25 Jan08   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50    
2  ELEVEN CENTRAL Jul09 May28 May07 Mar25   (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 123 4.50 11% 7.90    
3  SECOND OF JULY Jul24 Jun26 Jun03 May12 Apr16 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 ★    
SCR  AMERICAN HERO Jul30 Jul15 Jun30 Jun10 May14 (flint s)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
5  JENNINGS Jul10         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 5.00 29% 2.50    
6  GIGGING Jul27 Jul04 Jun24 Jun11 May21 (cash l)BEJARANO R 121 5.00 21% 3.80    
7  DIGITAL Jun22 May06 Mar18 Jan28   (hiles rick)LANERIE J 121 10.00 6% 15.90    
8  BUSINESS MODEL Jul22         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 4.50    
 
CD-10   08/13/2022 6270ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARTEMUS EAGLE Jul16 May20       (cundiff way)HERRFORTH ERICA 121 30.00    
2  KING FURY Apr02         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 2.00 ★    
3  MR. WIRELESS Jul09 Jun05       (calhoun william )PARKER L 121 3.00 ★    
4  TREASURE TROVE Jul30 Jun26 May20 Apr21 Mar26 (cash l)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
5  TWILIGHT BLUE Jun25 May13 Apr02 Feb25   (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 21% 3.80    
6  INTREPID HEART Jun23 Apr30 Mar24 Mar01 Jan02 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 54% 0.90    
SCR  KEYSTONE FIELD Jul04 Jun17 May07 Mar19 Feb13 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 121 15.00 ★    
 
CD-11   08/13/2022 5940ft TURF RC5 GOOD Grade I Stake/Handicap Purse ($1000K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SET PIECE (GB) Jul15 May21 Apr15     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 125 4.00 27% 2.80    
  (by UNKNOWN out of PORTODORA by KINGMAMBO)
2  SACRED LIFE (FR) Jun18 May07 Mar26 Jan29   (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 125 4.50 15% 5.70    
  (by SIYOUNI (FR) out of KNYAZHNA (IRE) by MONTJEU (IRE))
3  FIELD PASS Jul16 Jun04 Apr23 Jan29   (maker micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 8.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of ONLY ME by RUNAWAY GROOM)
4  SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT May30 Apr15       (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 125 2.50 32% 2.20    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of SMOOTH AS USUAL by FLOWER ALLEY)
SCR  MEGACITY Jul16 May21 Apr10     (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 125 15.00    
  (by CITY ZIP out of COZY GAIN by COZZENE)
6  SANTIN Jun11 May07 Mar26 Feb19   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.00 ★    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of SENTIERO ITALIA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
7  ADMISSION OFFICE Jul08 Jun04       (lynch bria)HERNANDEZ J 125 10.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of MISS CHAPIN by ROYAL ACADEMY)
8  CAVALRY CHARGE Jul09 May21 May07 Mar26 Feb19 (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SWEET TALKIN by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
9  CELLIST Jul27 May21 Apr27 Feb05   (arnold r)LANERIE J 125 15.00    
  (by BIG BLUE KITTEN out of CELLO by STROLLING ALONG)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.