Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 19, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/7/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/1/8)-(2/7/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/1/8)-(2/7/1/8)-(2/7/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/1/8)-(2/8/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/7/1/8)-(2/8/5/6)-(10/9/7/8/1) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-2   WIN (2/8/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/5/6)-(2/8/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/5/6)-(2/8/5/6)-(2/8/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/5/6)-(10/9/7/8/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/8/5/6)-(10/9/7/8/1)-(6/3) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
ELP-3   WIN (10/9/7/8/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/9/7/8/1)-(10/9/7/8/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/9/7/8/1)-(10/9/7/8/1)-(10/9/7/8/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/9/7/8/1)-(6/3) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (10/9/7/8/1)-(6/3)-(6/8/5) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
ELP-4   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/3)-(6/8/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(6/8/5)-(8/7/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/8/5)-(6/8/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/8/5)-(6/8/5/3)-(6/8/5/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/8/5)-(8/7/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/8/5)-(8/7/5)-(5/8/9/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-6   WIN (8/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/5)-(8/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/7/5)-(8/7/5)-(8/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/7/5)-(5/8/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/5)-(5/8/9/7)-(9/5/6) 36 $0.50 $108 
ELP-7   WIN (5/8/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/9/7)-(5/8/2/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/8/9/7)-(5/8/2/9/7)-(5/8/2/9/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/8/9/7)-(9/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/9/7)-(9/5/6)-(5/13/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-8   WIN (9/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/5/6)-(9/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/5/6)-(9/5/6)-(9/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/5/6)-(5/13/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
ELP-9   WIN (5/13/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/13/9)-(5/13/3/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/13/9)-(5/13/3/9)-(5/13/3/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/19/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($37.5K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL HONORS May29 May09       (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 18% 4.50    
2  COMPRESSED Jun19 May23       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 2.00 26% 2.80    
3  ABDICATE (IRE) Apr24         (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
4  BAGG O TIME Jun28         (vance d)LANERIE J 119 3.50    
5  RED SPEEDO Jun19 May23 Apr07     (hancock j)TORRES A 119 4.50    
6  DR FENN Jun19         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
7  STAY FOR THE BOOM         (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 5.00 25% 3.00    
8  MONTALBANO         (seglin lu)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-2   07/19/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPOTAWAY Jun18 May08 Mar23 Feb15 Jan03 (rouck l)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
2  READYTORISKITALL May24 Apr29 Mar30 Mar08   (foster er)TORRES A 118 5.00 26% 2.90    
3  SWEET STAR Jun18 May29 May17 May05 Apr09 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00    
4  HELEN'S LITTLE SIS Apr23 Mar29 Dec07 Oct19 Mar16 (casse mark)VAZQUEZ A 122 2.50    
5  COLORMECAIRO Jan16 Dec20 Nov09 Oct01 Aug30 (shirer a)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 17% 4.70    
6  I'M A COOKIE LOVER Jun27 May17 Mar13 Feb23 Jan26 (kerrick )RODRIGUEZ A 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  MOMBAYLA Jun20 May11 Mar07 Aug26 Jul27 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 122 4.50    
8  BROOKLYNN DREW Jun18 May17 Apr19 Mar29 Feb23 (contreras cip)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00 18% 4.50    
 
ELP-3   07/19/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIP CORD         (nicholl sebast)JUAREZ NIK 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASS MARKET out of SILLY REMARK by REGAL REMARK)
SCR  NINE BALL         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by HADIF out of PATCARR'S AVATAR by AVATAR)
3  FREE CHOICE Jul03 May29       (seglin lu)BEALMEAR C 119 30.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of RUBELLITE by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  MUMDOGGIE         (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of MISS BEATRICE by LIAM'S MAP)
5  LA NORME DE JOUR         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by BY MY STANDARDS out of LA BELLE DE JOUR by STRONG MANDATE)
6  ROGUISHNESS         (devaux cherie)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DAISY by BLAME)
7  FEDERAL AGENT         (cox brad )TORRES A 119 5.00 6% 17.10    
  (by CURLIN out of GWENJINSKY by SEATTLE DANCER)
8  LAND OF THE FREE         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TRIBAL RULE out of ROSES 'N RAINBOWS by COMMENDABLE)
9  THE STANDARD Jun28         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by AMERICAN STANDARD out of JAMARA by J. O. TOBIN)
10  CLOCKER SPECIAL Jun12         (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 43% 1.30    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CHIDING by BLAME)
11  WICKED GUN         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of MAYBE WICKED by MIZZEN MAST)
 
ELP-4   07/19/2025 6600ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THE HIDDEN CHAMBER Jul05 Jun13 May26 Mar22 Feb01 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
SCR  ATLANTIC DANCER Jun26 Mar14 Jan26 Nov20 Oct23 (cook jason )GUTIERREZ MARIO 123 15.00    
3  DOMINGO Jun13 May01 Apr09 Mar01 Aug03 (oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00 20% 4.00    
4  HEY BOSS Jun20 Jun05 May03 Mar15 Feb08 (amoss m)GRAHAM J 123 15.00    
SCR  FORT THOMAS Jun13 May18 Apr24 Nov03 Oct10 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 123 5.00    
6  WRITE OFF JERRY Jun27 Mar04 Feb08 Dec20 Nov22 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 125 3.00 39% 1.60    
7  SEVEN WONDERS Jun20 Sep28 Sep01 Jul26 Jun08 (eurton peter)BEJARANO R 123 1.00    
 
ELP-5   07/19/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($23.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MARY MOONGLOW Jul10 May22 Apr22 Jun23   (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50    
2  MISS MAKENNA Jun25 May19 Apr27 Mar30 Feb14 (house gary)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 20.00    
3  ST. ALBANS RAID Jun07 May11 Mar16 Jan26 Dec20 (shirer ma)TORRES A 119 5.00 ★    
SCR  STATLER INN Mar08 Feb23 Feb05 Jul13 Jun28 (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
5  ECHO VISION Jun12 May22 Apr24     (foster eric)MONCADA IRVING 114 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  DINAHS GIRL Mar09 Jan31 Jan03 Dec13 Nov20 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 68% 0.50    
7  MILVEN Sep21 Sep01       (french r)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 12.00    
8  DARING HOPE May30 Mar16 Feb21 Jan27 Nov03 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 124 4.00 9% 10.00    
SCR  ESCOVEDO Jul10 Jun25 Dec13 Oct03   (rivelli larry)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
10  SUMMER ADI Jul05 May19       (mcvickers lama)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 30.00    
SCR  CRACKLE (GB) Jun25 Jun07 May26 May11   (holsapple hutch)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
 
ELP-6   07/19/2025 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($106K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISTER MMMMM Jun28 May26 Sep02 Aug11 Jul05 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
SCR  ONE TIMER Jul02 May24 Dec14 Oct05 Sep07 (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 4.50    
SCR  CHISELER Jul04 May24 Apr09 Mar26 Feb12 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 8.00    
4  AMERICAN MONARCH Jul04 Apr18 Feb22 Jul08 May04 (mott william)TORRES A 122 5.00    
5  DONCHO Jun13 Apr18 Jun05 May05 Apr05 (lovell michell)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  THAT'S RIGHT Jun04 Apr18 Jan25 Dec21 Oct23 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
7  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Jun03 May03 Apr08 Mar08 Feb23 (vanden br)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 22% 3.50    
8  DHABAB (IRE) Jun04 Apr30 Mar15 Feb15 Nov24 (vaughan edward)LANERIE J 124 2.50 29% 2.50    
 
ELP-7   07/19/2025 5940ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($38.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RUNNINGFORCASH Jun21 May17 Apr13 Nov30 Nov02 (martinez )LEPAROUX R 123 30.00    
2  EMBER Jun22 Jun05 Apr19 Mar29 Feb06 (dutrow ri)CAMACHO JR 123 6.00 ★    
3  HUGE BIGLY Jun06 May23 May03 Feb14 Jan05 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 123 5.00    
SCR  MASTER GAME Jun05 May09 Mar16 Feb15 Jul21 (sharp joe)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00    
5  RELEASE MCCRAKEN Jun19 Feb06 Jan19 Nov23 Sep28 (garcia israel)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.50 44% 1.30    
6  LIAM THE BRAVE Jun25 Jun05 May16 Apr19 Mar22 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 123 30.00    
7  THE THUNDERER Jun22 May26 Apr13 Mar08 Feb07 (hiles rick)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  METATRON'S MUSE Jun25 Jun05 May23 Apr26 Feb01 (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 123 2.50 31% 2.30    
9  NIKOLAOU Jun05 Apr29 Mar15 Feb28 Feb01 (dixon jer)BEALMEAR C 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  ICARUS Jun22 Jun06 May11 Mar29 Feb14 (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00    
11  UNSTABLE PRINCE Jun13 May26 May03 Apr13 Mar08 (shirer ma)TORRES A 123 10.00    
 
ELP-8   07/19/2025 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($104K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EYE WITNESS Jun28 May16 Apr30 Apr12 Jul05 (caramori caio)MORALES EDGAR 122 30.00    
2  JOHNNY PODRES Jun22 May01 Mar05 Jan25 Dec01 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 122 8.00    
SCR  GILDED RULER Jun03 Apr30 Mar19 Feb15 Dec13 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN Jun27 Apr30 Dec13 Nov15 Oct25 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 4.00    
5  CAT ON TIME Jun12 May23 May01 Apr19 Mar29 (jacobson )TORRES A 122 3.50 34% 2.00    
6  TEST FACTOR Jun04 Apr30 Mar28 Feb22 Jan19 (crichton )LEPAROUX R 122 6.00 10% 9.10    
7  SURF CITY Jun27 Jun04 Apr17 Nov08 Oct11 (oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
SCR  FOXTROTANNA Apr30 Mar28 Mar08 Dec21 Nov15 (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 122 30.00    
9  ATTACHE May23 Apr25 Feb23 Jan31 Jan04 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 35% 1.80    
SCR  EAKLY Jun27 Nov29 Nov09 Oct18 Sep20 (von donni)LANERIE J 122 4.50    
 
ELP-9   07/19/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WAR LEGEND Jun26 May11 Mar30 Feb22 Jun09 (casse mar)TORRES A 119 4.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of RARE PERLE by SIYOUNI)
SCR  MILITARY CRUISER Jun27 May09 May04     (vaccarezza nicho)JUAREZ NIK 124 15.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of VASILISA by SKIPSHOT)
3  IL CAVALLINO Jun26 May24 Apr25     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DAISY by BLAME)
4  TAP ME A SONG Jun06 May10 Apr06 Aug24   (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of GWITHIAN by STREET SENSE)
5  EVAN ON EARTH Jun27 May18 Nov22 Nov08 May04 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 124 6.00 44% 1.30    
  (by CONGRATS out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
6  OUTOFPI Jun26 May09 Apr26 Mar12 Feb23 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by JERSEY TOWN out of PAHIATUA by TRIBAL RULE)
SCR  ITS BOURBON THIRTY Jun08 Feb23 Jan24 Apr27 Mar23 (o'dwyer jeremi)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.50    
  (by OUTWORK out of SEATTLE ARTIST by STORMY ATLANTIC)
SCR  FRYE ISLAND (IRE)         (rider m)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of MONYA by DARK ANGEL)
9  HOGIE THE PLAYER Jun26         (wismer glenn)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of IN JAIL by INTO MISCHIEF)
10  THE CHALK Jun20 Nov17 Oct26 Jul28 Jun30 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of BEEN STUDYING HER by FAST ANNA)
SCR  EMPIRE RANCH         (morse l)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SENADA by PULPIT)
SCR  SHADOW COAST Jun06 May15 Apr26 Mar12 Feb15 (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of OVERPREPARED by QUALITY ROAD)
13  HIGHWAY PATROL         (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 28% 2.60    
  (by STREET BOSS out of ESCALANTE by HONOR GRADES)
SCR  BIG RITZ Apr13         (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 114 12.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of IN DY RITZ by A.P. INDY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.