Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Presque Isle Downs
Monday - October 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

PID-1   WIN (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/1)-(4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/1)-(5/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/1)-(5/3)-(6/5/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PID-2   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/3)-(6/5/4) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(6/5/4)-(7/3/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PID-3   WIN (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/4)-(6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/4)-(7/3/2) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (6/5/4)-(7/3/2)-(3/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PID-4   WIN (7/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/2)-(7/3/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2)-(7/3/2)-(7/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/2)-(3/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2)-(3/1)-(1/3/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PID-5   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/1)-(1/3/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(1/3/6)-(1/4/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PID-6   WIN (1/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/6)-(1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/6)-(1/4/2) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (1/3/6)-(1/4/2)-(3/8/7/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PID-7   WIN (1/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/2)-(1/4/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/2)-(1/4/2)-(1/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/2)-(3/8/7/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
PID-8   WIN (3/8/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
PID-1   10/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REAL GOOD VYBZ Sep27 Sep12 Aug30 Jul25 Jul12 (williams omani)STANLEY O 124 3.50 18% 4.70    
ABUNDANT STORY Sep26 Aug29 Aug11 Jul24   (sharp j)WALES GARY 122 8.00    
MY BRIDGET VERDOT Aug21 Aug06 Jul16 Jul02 Jun21 (schaber debbi)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 15.00    
UPTOWN CHARLOTTE Sep11 Aug28 Aug08 Jul18 Jun20 (markgraf davi)WALKER M 119 3.00 41% 1.40    
FAMILY BAND Aug28 Aug14 Jul17 May29 Apr23 (hamm timothy)RIQUELME J 122 5.00 19% 4.40    
KEEN ON ME Sep11 Aug14 Jul26 Jul11 Jun13 (tasso mark)ALLEN D 122 10.00    
SCR  MA FRANCE (IRE) Sep02 Aug09 May29 Apr29 Oct02 (morey wi)GALLARDO A 122 1.60    
 
PID-2   10/23/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHOOT YOUR CUFFS Oct09 Sep21 Oct20 Sep27 Sep20 (bourke john)STANLEY O 122 8.00    
UNCLE JOCK Oct02 Sep19 Sep05 Aug15 Jul24 (potts g)ALLEN D 119 5.00    
GIACOMETTI Oct09 Sep21 Aug30 Aug16 Aug10 (girten tim)ROJAS MARTINA 114 2.50 24% 3.20    
GOOSE HUNTER Oct10 Sep25 Sep11 Aug23 Aug15 (ruberto )GALLARDO A 119 6.00    
HAMMER LANE Oct02 Aug30 Aug01 Jul12 Mar26 (weaver cassondra)MARTINEZ W 122 1.80 38% 1.60    
SCR  HE'S A GOOD DANCER Oct10 Sep28 Sep11 Aug23 Aug09 (rice kevin)AYALA J 119 4.00    
 
PID-3   10/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIELDER Sep28 Sep05 Aug14 Jul05 Jun14 (hayes leland)MORALES PABLO 124 5.00    
CHAMPION BY DESIGN Oct04 Sep19 Sep05 Aug16 Aug08 (brooks gerald )ALLEN D 122 15.00    
SMOKY BLUES Oct03 May16 Apr08 Feb01 Dec08 (weaver cassondra)MARTINEZ W 122 6.00    
WHERE YOU WAS Oct11 Sep28 Sep05 Aug17 Aug03 (grace john)AYALA J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
HAIG POINT Oct11 Sep20 Sep12 Aug26 Jul22 (girten t)GALLARDO A 122 3.00 18% 4.60    
STRAIGHTOUTADUTTON Sep28 Sep20 Sep05 Aug10 Jul24 (russell )MARTINEZ A 122 4.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  THE SINNER IS YOU Sep21 Sep13 Aug28 Aug17 Jun20 (rojas eduardo)ROJAS MARTINA 117 1.80    
 
PID-4   10/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BABY DRAGON Oct04 Sep18 Aug28 Aug10 Aug02 (russell )MARTINEZ A 122 10.00    
GET NONE Sep25 Sep04 Aug23 May25 Oct16 (rivelli )GALLARDO A 122 5.00 10% 8.60    
HOT BODE Oct04 Sep18 Jul12 Feb15 Jan25 (weaver cassondra)MARTINEZ W 124 3.50 11% 7.80    
FOLK HERO Oct09 Sep28 Aug30 Aug15 Aug01 (gomez alejandro)WALES GARY 122 8.00    
SCR  MANDY GREEN Oct04 Sep19 Aug31 Jul25 Jul05 (bernardini jay )LEON A 122 15.00    
CHARLOTTE THE BRIT Oct04 Aug30 Aug16 Aug02 Jul17 (rojas eduardo)ROJAS MARTINA 119 2.00    
RED PIXIE Sep25 Sep19 Aug26 Aug15 Jul17 (brooks geral)AYALA J 122 2.50 57% 0.80    
 
PID-5   10/23/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($30K) 2 ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CANDY CORN Sep07 Jul27       (stidham )GALLARDO A 120 8.00 13% 6.60    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of MCCALL by VIOLENCE)
SCR  BAYTOWN BRUISER Oct05 Sep20       (wismer g)MARTINEZ A 120 6.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of SHES TRICKEY by PROUD CITIZEN)
IRISH STONE Oct11         (bourke john)MARTINEZ W 120 3.00 56% 0.80    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of ROCK WALL by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
FOURONEOHSMOKESHOW         (brion keri)SPIETH S 120 8.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of JOYCE by ROCK HARD TEN)
SCR  MORTAL SIN Oct22 Sep30 Sep04 Aug17 Jul27 (doran car)CARRASCO R 120 1.60    
  (by SOLOMINI out of GALADRIEL'S LIGHT by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
ABRAMS Sep20 Sep04       (zook w)STANLEY O 120 8.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of PERILS OF PAULINE by STRAVINSKY)
SCR  EXPRESS STAR Oct05 Sep20 Sep04 Aug07   (miller d)WALES GARY 120 4.50    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of STARSHIP ESPRESSO by TALE OF EKATI)
 
PID-6   10/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HEY PADRE Oct09 Sep18 Aug29 Aug09 Jul05 (rogers j)MARTINEZ A 124 2.50 34% 1.90    
ALABAMA SLAMMER Sep12 Aug17 Aug02 Jun26 Jun06 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 122 8.00    
EXTRASEXYBIGDADDEE Oct03 Sep12 Aug22 Jul25 Jul04 (trombett)GALLARDO A 124 1.80 24% 3.20    
AMERICA'S JUSTICE Oct03 Sep20 Aug15 Jul24 Jul10 (miller-saul b)MORALES PABLO 122 5.00    
BRUMBA WAFFLE TOES Oct03 Sep18 Aug29 Aug09 Jul04 (rice kevin)AYALA J 119 4.00    
SUN DADDY Oct05 Sep05 Aug28 Aug02 Jun12 (martin willia)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 6.00 19% 4.20    
 
PID-7   10/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Mark McDermott Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 5:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOING UP Sep26 Aug05 Jul16 May31   (potts g)ALLEN D 122 2.50 32% 2.20    
  (by MINESHAFT out of SHUSH UP by SILENT NAME (JPN))
WHISKEYROMEOSIERRA Sep12 Aug21 Jul18     (coletti edwar)MORALES PABLO 118 6.00 16% 5.20    
  (by EASTWOOD out of TALKLESS SMILEMORE by UNCLE MO)
FACTOR U AND ME IN Sep22 Aug24 Jul30 May01   (coletti j)MARTINEZ W 118 15.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of YOU BETCHA BABE by YES IT'S TRUE)
HEAVY POUR Oct11         (girten t)MARTINEZ A 116 10.00 26% 2.90    
  (by STORMY ATLANTIC out of CHARM THE CROWD by THEATRICAL)
SCR  NOTICE OF ACTION Sep23 Aug21       (hawthorne bo)HERNANDEZ ANDY 122 1.80    
  (by HOPPERTUNITY out of BE A GEM by JUMP START)
SCR  REBEL INVASION Sep15 Aug21 May01     (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 118 15.00    
  (by NORMANDY INVASION out of REBEL ROSEMARY by COASTAL STORM)
UNCLE KENNY Sep26 Aug17 Aug05 Jul18 May31 (potts g)WALKER M 118 8.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of PHYLLIS ANN by PUT IT BACK)
SCR  THAT'S JUST GREAT         (kintz ma)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 116 10.00    
  (by CAL NATION out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
POKER PARTNER Sep23 Aug21 Jul18     (dacosta )GALLARDO A 118 8.00    
  (by WEIGELIA out of JUSTGIMMEAKISS by CONGRATS)
 
PID-8   10/23/2023 5490ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ALARRA Sep27 Aug15 Aug01 Jul12 Jun27 (clarke dylan)ALENCAR WALBER 124 12.00    
MEMORIES ETERNAL Sep27 Sep23 Aug27 Jul27 Jul01 (deiter ke)RADCLIFFE ANTHONY 114 20.00 5% 19.00    
MULSANNE (IRE) Oct12 Aug29 Aug14 Jul31 Jul12 (hendriks rich)MORALES PABLO 124 3.00 45% 1.20    
VARSITY DOLL Oct12 Sep27 Sep12 Aug07 Jul05 (monserrate )CAMILO D 121 12.00    
SCR  CASTLE BORN Oct04 Sep20 Aug18 Aug11 Jul16 (duffy se)GALLARDO A 124 2.50    
SUPER GEUSE Oct12 Jul31 Jul17 Jun06 May23 (hamm timothy)STANLEY O 124 6.00    
WINE IN THE DARK Oct12 Sep29 Sep09 Aug26 Aug06 (hendriks rich)CHAVEZ ANDRES 111 4.00 12% 7.20    
AMATTEROFPRINCIPLE Oct05 Sep15 Aug31 Aug10 Jul13 (johnston rebe)WALKER M 124 4.50 19% 4.40    
NAUGHTY PUMPKIN Oct10         (gutterson kat)ROJAS MARTINA 116 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.