Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Colonial Downs
Thursday - September 07, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CNL-1   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(1/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/6)-(4/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6)-(4/7/3)-(4/8/2/3/9) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CNL-2   WIN (4/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/3)-(4/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/3)-(4/7/3)-(4/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/3)-(4/8/2/3/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/3)-(4/8/2/3/9)-(10/9/7/1/5) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CNL-3   WIN (4/8/2/3/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/2/3/9)-(4/8/2/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/2/3/9)-(4/8/2/3/9)-(4/8/2/3/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/8/2/3/9)-(10/9/7/1/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/8/2/3/9)-(10/9/7/1/5)-(7/4/1/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
CNL-4   WIN (10/9/7/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/9/7/1/5)-(10/9/7/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/9/7/1/5)-(10/9/7/1/5)-(10/9/7/1/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/9/7/1/5)-(7/4/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/9/7/1/5)-(7/4/1/3)-(4/6/7/2/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
CNL-5   WIN (7/4/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/1/3)-(7/4/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/1/3)-(7/4/1/3)-(7/4/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/1/3)-(4/6/7/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/4/1/3)-(4/6/7/2/1)-(11/7/3/5/9) 100 $1.00 $100 
CNL-6   WIN (4/6/7/2/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/6/7/2/1)-(4/6/7/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/6/7/2/1)-(4/6/7/2/1)-(4/6/7/2/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/6/7/2/1)-(11/7/3/5/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/6/7/2/1)-(11/7/3/5/9)-(9/7/12/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CNL-7   WIN (11/7/3/5/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/7/3/5/9)-(11/7/3/5/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/7/3/5/9)-(11/7/3/5/9)-(11/7/3/5/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/7/3/5/9)-(9/7/12/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/7/3/5/9)-(9/7/12/4)-(3/9/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-8   WIN (9/7/12/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/7/12/4)-(9/7/12/4/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/7/12/4)-(9/7/12/4/11)-(9/7/12/4/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/7/12/4)-(3/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CNL-9   WIN (3/9/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/9/8)-(3/9/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/9/8)-(3/9/8)-(3/9/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CNL-1   09/07/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MALIBU RUMBLE Aug25 Aug05 Jul11 Jun17 May13 (allen a )GALLARDO A 118 1.20 62% 0.60    
REAL MIKEY Sep01 Aug17 Jul21 Jun30   (lusk brian)ALONSO LUIS 115 5.00    
VALENTIN C Aug25 Aug12 Jun30 Aug30   (escobar alison)AVILES YAN 124 2.50    
PERFECT MOON Aug25 Aug02 Jul13 Jun30 Jun03 (cascallares ne)GOLIBRZUCH S 118 20.00    
SCR  KALINBA Aug25 Jul21 Jul14 Jul01 May06 (cascallares ne)ROSADO JOHAN 124 10.00    
PAY THE SQUID Aug05 Jul07 Jun18 Oct23 Sep07 (nuesch patrick)ACOSTA D 118 3.50 13% 6.70    
 
CNL-2   09/07/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOFFO KID Aug24 Aug04 Jul14 Jun24 Nov24 (doran carl)KARAMANOS A 122 2.00    
ESOR Aug24 Jul04 May23 May16 Apr10 (romero ra)CARRASCO R 122 15.00    
SUPER E Aug18 Jul29 Jul09 Jun11 May25 (smith hamilton)BOYCE FOREST 122 4.00 8% 12.20    
GLOBAL SENSATION Aug24 Jul20 May17 Mar11 Feb17 (stidham )GALLARDO A 122 1.40 48% 1.10    
SPEAKERIT Aug20 Jul29 Jul07     (kee j)ROSADO JOHAN 122 20.00    
AKINGISALWAYSKING Aug24 Aug03 Jul13 Jun02 May20 (murtaugh a)ALONSO LUIS 122 20.00    
GAMBLING TZAR Aug04 Jul20 Jun30 May23 Mar05 (alvarado diane)ROCCO S 122 5.00 22% 3.50    
 
CNL-3   09/07/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LATE NITE LIZZIE         (stidham micha)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 8.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of GIANT SENSATION by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
ENDURING         (casse mark)KARAMANOS A 119 6.00 9% 10.70    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of IN DY RITZ by A.P. INDY)
TAJOL GIRL         (locklear james)RIQUELME J 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BARBADOS (IRE) out of TAJOL by SPRING AT LAST)
LANDOFHOPEANDREAMS Aug11         (payne beale)ASHTON GAVIN 119 2.00 47% 1.10    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of MAJESTIC GALE by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
ROANAN GODDESS Aug11         (smith hami)SANCHEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by LEOFRIC out of NIGHT MADAM by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
CORINTH Aug11 Jul20 Jun10 May25   (munoz ca)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 119 4.50    
  (by STREET BOSS out of MEGARA by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
TAKE YOUR POINT         (mcgaughey clau)BOYCE FOREST 119 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FAIR POINT by SMART STRIKE)
ARIEL MOON Aug11 Jul14       (trombetta mich)ROSADO JOHAN 119 6.00 15% 5.80    
  (by MOSLER out of FIFTEEN MOONS by MALIBU MOON)
MOBINAH         (parra hernan)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of FALINA'S SONG by VALUE PLUS)
10  GREAVETTE Jul07         (begg jame)CARRASCO R 119 10.00    
  (by ASTERN out of CONVERTIBLE by FORESTRY)
 
CNL-4   09/07/2023 5940ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($8K) Purse ($20K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ATTENTIVE Aug25 Aug04 May13 Apr30 Feb12 (brown kelton)HO WESLEY 125 12.00 8% 11.40    
REYNA DE VERANO Aug17 Aug04 Jun25 Sep05 Aug23 (munoz ca)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 122 30.00    
VINTNER Aug25 Aug11 Jul21 May06 Apr08 (yanez r)CASTANON L 125 10.00    
NOBLE CONQUEST Aug11 Jul13 Jun09 Oct23 Sep17 (allen a )GALLARDO A 125 5.00    
CLOSER LOOK Aug10 Jul21 Jun29 Jun04 Jan28 (allen ferri)KARAMANOS A 125 30.00 6% 15.20    
POWER (BRZ) Aug24 Aug16 Aug03 Jul05 Jun02 (morzan e)RIQUELME J 125 2.50    
PETIT FILS (FR) Jul15 May24 May12 Sep16 Aug29 (lawrence j)SANCHEZ J 125 15.00 17% 4.90    
VOLTAMOUR Aug10 Jul15 Dec05 Nov13 Oct24 (mcgoey moni)CASIQUE URBARDO 125 15.00    
CELERITY Aug11 Jul06 May20 Apr13 Mar31 (asmussen )HERNANDEZ J 125 5.00 21% 3.80    
10  BARLEEWON Aug11 Jul22 Jun24 Oct23 Sep15 (wasiluk peter)TOLEDO JEVIAN 125 4.00 24% 3.10    
11  COLONIST Aug11 Jun29 Jun15 Apr20 Mar12 (escobar alison)AVILES YAN 125 15.00    
 
CNL-5   09/07/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STARCRY         (stidham micha)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 6.00 9% 10.50    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of CRY HALLELUJAH by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  LADYS CHANT         (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 119 8.00    
  (by NEOLITHIC out of CAREY PRINCESS by WAR CHANT)
RAPID TULA         (munoz carlos)ASHTON GAVIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ADIOS CHARLIE out of SWEET CHANTAL by SNOW RIDGE)
THE MYTH Aug12 May13       (casse ma)GALLARDO A 119 3.00 11% 8.30    
  (by THE FACTOR out of HONEY TRAP by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SMOKIN SISTER         (williams l)MONTERREY R 119 15.00    
  (by BRETHREN out of RACHEL'S SMOKIN by SKY MESA)
WHITE HEAT (GB) Aug11 Jul21       (boniface c)AVILES YAN 119 20.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of PLATINUM BRIDE by ALPHABET SOUP)
INDEPENDENCEAVENUE Aug17         (delacour )CARRASCO R 119 1.20 60% 0.70    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of OFF THE ROAD by QUICK ROAD)
STEAM KNOT         (cooney s)CASTANON L 119 30.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of CHERRY POINT by POINT GIVEN)
SHE'S SPLENDID         (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of STAR SERENADE by CATRAIL)
10  CLASSIC DIVA         (payne beale)FUENTES MARIO 119 30.00    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of DICEY FLATS by FLATTER)
 
CNL-6   09/07/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KENNY HAD A NOTION Jul15 Jun30 May25 Apr15 Mar18 (jones m)ORTIZ ORLANDO 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
CLINT MAROON (GB) Aug18 Aug11 May19 Dec11 Nov07 (bourke liam)ASHTON GAVIN 122 6.00 7% 13.90    
BODECREAM Aug18 Jun17 Apr29 Jan22   (de horaci)KARAMANOS A 118 5.00    
SEVEN CHANNELS Aug11 Jun22 Apr16 Feb10 Jan08 (kurtinecz )SANCHEZ J 124 3.00 48% 1.10    
HASN'T HAD ENOUGH Aug26 Aug04 Jun30 Apr26 Jan29 (yanez r)ROCCO S 118 30.00    
VALENTINE BUG Aug10 Jul05 May30 May17 Oct04 (connelly)GALLARDO A 122 6.00 12% 7.50    
STREET COPPER Aug12 Jul14 Jun24 Nov07 Oct22 (trombetta mich)ROSADO JOHAN 122 3.50 11% 7.80    
GIRL DAD Sep01 Aug04 Mar25 Nov05 Oct14 (brion ker)CARRASCO R 122 10.00    
ROMP (ARG) Aug02 Jul15 May18 Apr20 Mar17 (mancilla carl)TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 15.00    
10  EPIC LUCK Sep01 Aug07 Jul19 Jun21 Jun07 (ashby lynn)ACOSTA D 124 30.00    
11  SUPER JOHN Jul03 Jun13 May17 Apr11 Mar01 (romero rafael)CASTANON L 122 20.00    
 
CNL-7   09/07/2023 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BABY LUCK Aug31 Jul14 Apr19 Mar10 Aug10 (ochoa ge)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 122 30.00    
TATOR MADE Aug24 Jul07       (rideout m)HO WESLEY 118 10.00    
BLUESKYSLOOKINATME Aug24         (locklear james)RIQUELME J 118 15.00 10% 9.40    
LUNA WEST Aug24 Aug05 Jul07 Jun17 Apr07 (alonso cas)ALONSO LUIS 118 30.00    
LADY ENSIGN Aug20 Jul30 Jul09 Jun10 May14 (trombetta)CARRASCO R 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GIRVINIZED Aug18 Jun30       (allen a )GALLARDO A 118 2.00    
MOONSHINING Aug18 Aug02 Jul13 Jun30 Jun18 (mcgoey mon)SANCHEZ J 118 4.50 30% 2.30    
MURPH Aug24 Aug03 Jul12 Jun23 May20 (magana j)KARAMANOS A 122 10.00    
YOU'RE AVOIDING ME Aug05 Jul14 May20 Mar16 Feb23 (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  SEEKINGBYTHESTORM Aug17 Aug03 Jul07 May26 Apr15 (mcgoey monica)CASTANON L 120 10.00    
11  MOMENTOUS MISS Aug05 Jul14       (payne beale)AVILES YAN 122 6.00 33% 2.00    
12  LEVISA Jan16 Jan07 Nov19 Oct12 Sep06 (sillaman richard)CRUZ ANGEL 118 15.00    
 
CNL-8   09/07/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WILL'S MUSIC Aug10 Jul23 Jul08 Jun09 May04 (allen a)ORTIZ ORLANDO 120 15.00    
IT'S ME AGAIN Aug25 Aug03 Jun30 Jun16 May27 (santilla)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 123 30.00    
WILD IRISHMAN Aug26 Aug17 Jul20 Jul07 May24 (werneth robert)GOLIBRZUCH S 123 30.00    
GRANDPA'S KID Aug26 Jul21 May31 May17 Oct28 (godsey d)ASHTON GAVIN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
FLEETS BAY Jul20 Jul13 Jun24 May27   (boniface kevin)ROSADO JOHAN 118 20.00    
FIGHTNOMOREFOREVER Aug17 Jul13 Jul07 Jun17 May26 (boniface )HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
BAIL OUT Aug17 Jul14 Jun24 Jun03 Nov13 (de hor)SANCHEZ J 123 2.50 8% 10.80    
ZALFIERRO Aug25 Aug17 Jun30 Aug29 Aug22 (lusk r)FUENTES MARIO 123 12.00    
GRAEL Aug12 Jul14 Jun23 Jan20 Dec29 (stidham )GALLARDO A 123 1.40 65% 0.50    
10  THE THINKER Jul14 Jun24 May25 Apr14 Mar24 (allen ferris)CASTANON L 123 30.00    
11  MOON SIGN Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 Jun24 Jun04 (pradenas serg)KARAMANOS A 118 8.00    
12  VILLAGE PREACHER Aug17 Jul20 Jun30 May20 Apr29 (lusk brian)ALONSO LUIS 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CNL-9   09/07/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FINANCIAL DISTRICT         (romero ra)CARRASCO R 119 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of ONE LOOK by OPS SMILE (BRZ))
SCR  HOLD MY STETSON Aug12         (demario charl)KARAMANOS A 119 15.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of STAINLESS KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
SHARDS Aug05 Jun10       (danner k)GALLARDO A 119 3.00 51% 1.00    
  (by BUCCHERO out of CYNTHIA'S FURY by UTOPIA (JPN))
MAINTAIN Aug05         (mccutchen jaso)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of RELAX by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  GOODBYE NOTE         (smith hamilto)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 5.00    
  (by BLOFELD out of MADAM ALEX by NOT FOR LOVE)
SCR  A G DIAMOND Jul27 Jun17 Jun03     (cascallares)CASIQUE URBARDO 119 4.50    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of QUEST FOR CANDY by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SIR MASON Aug17 Aug03       (munoz ca)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 119 15.00    
  (by ST PATRICK'S DAY out of AZASECRET by DISCREET CAT)
PAEZ Aug25 Aug11       (nunez maurici)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 12.00 6% 16.40    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of HELP THE CHILDREN by STORMY ATLANTIC)
LEGENDARY PHANTOM Aug12 Jul16       (trombetta mich)ROSADO JOHAN 119 2.50 22% 3.40    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of GHOSTLY WIN by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  IMPERIALTY Aug25 Aug10 Jul27     (munoz car)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of SPRING DRAGON by LIGHTNIN N THUNDER)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.