Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 07, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/07/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEBOW Jul24 Jun12       (vaccarezza carlo)GRAHAM J 124 20.00    
2  TRUE JEDI Jul22 May22 Apr16 Mar18   (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 1.80 58% 0.70    
3  BOCO         (hamilton troy)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00    
4  PINE VALLEY Jul15         (brisset ro)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 13% 6.60    
5  MOUNT KISCO Jul03         (howell jessi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 50.00    
6  EMBRACE (IRE) Jun19 May22       (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH null   7% 12.80    
7  SUTHERLAND Jun30         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.50 ★    
8  NAVY SOUL Apr09 Mar17       (pittman bon)PETERSON FERRIN 119 50.00 5% 19.00    
9  SARGENT LEE         (o'neill doug)DIAZ RENE 114 4.50    
 
ELP-2   08/07/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMPELLING SMILE May06         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 5.00    
2  COPPELIA Jul09 Feb19       (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 7% 13.40    
3  READY FOR CHANGE May14 Mar13 Feb13     (pessin l)GRAHAM J 122 6.00 28% 2.60    
4  RECODED Jul02 May29 May03 Apr16 Mar19 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00    
5  MALLOY Jul02 Jun11 May14 Mar09 Jan15 (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 12.00    
6  UPANDCOMINGSTAR Jul08 May30 May07 Mar24 Mar06 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 36% 1.80    
7  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) Jun11 May29 May03     (meah m)HOLMES GAGE 115 3.50    
 
ELP-3   08/07/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXCELLENT QUESTION         (walsh brend)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
SCR  JOKES ON BLUE         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
2  FROSTY DIVA         (forster gran)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  LIGHTER KNOT Jul09         (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00    
4  PERFECT ROSE Jul31         (vasquez ger)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
5  CREATIVE DI         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  ELECTRIC SENSE         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.50 10% 9.00    
7  PEACOCK LASS         (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
8  REDHAIREDCOLLEEN Jul23 Jul04       (reece claire)ELLIOTT JANE 119 50.00    
9  MIDVALE         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00    
10  SOMEBODY'S PROBLEM Jul01         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.50 47% 1.10    
11  STAR POSE Jul09 Jun19       (lukas wayne)DIAZ RENE 114 4.00    
12  WITS AND WAGERS         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
SCR  BABY GOT BACKSPIN Jul01         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00    
 
ELP-4   08/07/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FINAL BELLE Jul08 May07 Apr15 Jan29   (mott i)GRAHAM J 123 6.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  MALIBU MARLEE Jul24 Jul18 Jun24 Jun05 May26 (kin)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 123 20.00    
3  FULL FOCUS Jan01         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
4  LAYNLOMAKNDOUGH Jul08 Jun02 May03 Apr15   (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 123 6.00 ★    
5  NECK ON THE NILE Jul08 Jun19 May15     (colebrook ben)DIAZ RENE 115 10.00    
6  DUPLICITOUS Jul08 Jun23 Apr29 Apr08 Mar19 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
SCR  RUNAWAY MOM Jul22 Jul08 May25 May13 Apr23 (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 116 50.00    
8  RED HOT MAMA Jul08 May14 Apr02 Feb21   (stewart da)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 20.00    
9  TWIRLING PATTI Jun02 Mar24 Feb24     (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  THROMBOCYTOPENIA May19 Apr26 Apr06 Mar05 Feb16 (obert danie)PETERSON FERRIN 123 30.00    
11  MISS YEARWOOD Jun18 May20 Apr30 Apr10 Jan30 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 1.60 41% 1.40    
12  BERATE Jul08 May29       (mcgaughey cla)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 5.00 ★    
 
ELP-5   08/07/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIVE PRIZES Jun23 May27 Mar06 Feb05   (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  BELPERRON Jul16         (manley ste)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
3  VERY WEALTHY Jul08 May20 Apr22 Mar10 Feb17 (lucas way)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
4  FRAGRANT Jun23         (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
5  TAKE CARE Jul10         (medina rob)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
6  RED BEE Jul08         (cundiff way)HERRFORTH ERICA 114 50.00    
SCR  CONTESSINA Jun29         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
8  SUNNY RIVER Jun19 May19       (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 1.60 29% 2.40    
9  ROLLESTON Jul10         (colebrook ben)DIAZ RENE 113 12.00    
10  PLEASE BE KIND Jul02 Jun04 Apr23 Mar23   (mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 6% 16.80    
11  SWEET LADY IVANKA Jul17         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 5.00 21% 3.80    
12  YOUR SO SILLEA Jul10         (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 118 6.00 24% 3.20    
 
ELP-6   08/07/2022 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOTALLY BOSS May28         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50 40% 1.50    
2  CHARCOAL Jul13 Jun11 May17     (wisner j)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
3  BAD BEAT BRIAN Jul23 May30 Feb19 Jan30   (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 10.00 33% 2.10    
4  CALL ME MIDNIGHT Jul10 Jun03 Apr16 Mar26 Jan22 (desormeaux j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
5  INTO THE SUNRISE Jul02 May29 Apr24 Mar02   (casse mark)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 10.00    
6  SEVEN SCENTS Jun22 May21 Apr24 Mar19 Feb19 (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 4.00 ★    
7  THANKS MR. EIDSON Jul13 May30 May03     (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 126 3.50    
SCR  NECKER ISLAND Jul24 Jul02 Jun04 May07 Apr02 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 5.00    
9  OCEANIC Jul13 Jun11 May28 Apr24 Mar05 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
10  ALL IN SYNC Jul10 May23 May01 Apr08 Feb11 (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-7   08/07/2022 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY FROSTED Jul09 Jun04 Apr26 Mar03 Jan13 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  TURNERLOOSE May06 Mar26 Feb19     (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.50 21% 3.80    
3  PYRAMID PRINCESS Mar05 Feb19 Jan28     (stuart shea)EMIGH A 122 20.00    
4  TAKE CHARGE RO Jul09 Jun05 Apr23 Mar12 Jan21 (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 3.00 35% 1.90    
5  WILDWOOD'S BEAUTY Jun04 May20 Apr02 Feb19 Jan22 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
6  TOUCH OF CLASS (GER) Jul13         (flint s)GRAHAM J 122 15.00    
7  UNDISTURBED Jul17 May28 Apr24 Mar20 Jan21 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 5.00 20% 4.00    
8  HENRIETTA TOPHAM Jul14 Jun22       (mulcahy geoff)HOLMES GAGE 122 20.00    
9  DEMODOG Jul17         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 5.00    
SCR  SISTER ANNIE Jul10 Jun10 May11 Mar09   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00    
 
ELP-8   08/07/2022 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CREATIVE CREDIT Jul13 Jun29 Jun01 Apr09   (haehn r)POMPELL L 124 8.00 7% 13.60    
2  SPEEDOMETER Jul09 May13 Mar03 Jan21   (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  BROOKE MARIE May05 Apr09 Jan29     (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 124 5.00 43% 1.30    
4  AMBASSADOR LUNA Jun05 May05 Mar04     (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 122 20.00    
5  ELLE Z Jul13 Apr16 Mar01 Jan29 Jan01 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 126 3.50 18% 4.70    
6  VIOLENZA Jul18 Apr16 Mar10     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 12.00    
7  SOCIAL CHATTER Jul18 Jun19       (oliver vic)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
8  LITTLE BLAZE Jul15 Jun11 May06 Apr13   (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 20.00    
9  STERLING MISS Jul02 May29 Apr30 Mar12 Feb14 (sharp joe)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00    
10  TOBYS HEART Jul23 Jun10 May05 Apr09   (lynch brian )BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 2.00 8% 12.10    
 
ELP-9   08/07/2022 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KITTANSETT Jun18 May07       (lobo h)ACHARD ALEX 122 15.00    
2  KITODAN Jul02 Jun04 May15 Apr02 Mar06 (foster eric)LOPEZ E 120 10.00 ★    
3  MR DUMAS Jun22 May05 Apr10 Mar10 Feb19 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.00 38% 1.60    
4  CUPID'S CLAWS Apr02 Feb25 Jan01     (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00    
SCR  SANTOS DUMONT Jul04 Jun04 May01 Apr02 Feb26 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00    
6  TUT'S REVENGE Jul24 Jun22 May25 Apr30 Mar11 (stuart she)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 30% 2.30    
7  DREAMER'S DISEASE         (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 122 12.00    
8  MOUNT RUNDLE Jun05 Apr23       (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 9% 9.50    
9  GRAY'S FABLE Jul09 Jun04 May05 Apr02   (lynch bria)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 3.50    
10  TEJANO TWIST Jul03 Jun19 May07 Apr08 Mar09 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
11  PENALTY Jun18 Apr30       (mott i)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
12  TEMPER TANTRUM Jul16 Jun25 Jun03     (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
13  MR. HUSTLE Jun23 May21 Apr24 Mar09 Feb14 (maker j)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
SCR  GREYES CREEK Jun11 Apr20       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.