Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 12, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/3)-(5/2/6/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(5/2/6/4)-(4/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ELP-2   WIN (5/2/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/6/4)-(5/2/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/6/4)-(5/2/6/4)-(5/2/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/6/4)-(4/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6/4)-(4/7/1)-(1/2/8/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/1)-(4/7/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/7/1)-(4/7/1/2)-(4/7/1/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/7/1)-(1/2/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/7/1)-(1/2/8/6)-(2/6/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/2/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/8/6)-(1/2/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/8/6)-(1/2/8/6)-(1/2/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/8/6)-(2/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/8/6)-(2/6/4)-(11/9/8/1/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-5   WIN (2/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/4)-(2/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/4)-(2/6/4)-(2/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/4)-(11/9/8/1/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4)-(11/9/8/1/3)-(1/8/5) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-6   WIN (11/9/8/1/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/9/8/1/3)-(11/9/8/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/9/8/1/3)-(11/9/8/1/3)-(11/9/8/1/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/9/8/1/3)-(1/8/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (11/9/8/1/3)-(1/8/5)-(4/2/7) 45 $0.50 $135 
ELP-7   WIN (1/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/5)-(1/8/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/8/5)-(1/8/4/5)-(1/8/4/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/8/5)-(4/2/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/8/5)-(4/2/7)-(11/1/7/5/12) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-8   WIN (4/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/7)-(4/2/6/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/2/7)-(4/2/6/7)-(4/2/6/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/2/7)-(11/1/7/5/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (11/1/7/5/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/1/7/5/12)-(11/1/7/5/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/1/7/5/12)-(11/1/7/5/12)-(11/1/7/5/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PRACTICALLY FAMOUS Jun06         (lynch a)JUAREZ NIK 119 1.40    
SCR  HEAVEN'S HOPE         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
3  FIZZY GIRL         (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00 9% 10.50    
4  SPRINGLINE         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
5  CINNAMON SUGAR (IRE) Jun18 May25 Apr25 Apr11   (hancock j)TORRES A 119 3.50    
6  BEACH OF DREAMS         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 1.80 37% 1.70    
 
ELP-2   07/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REWIRE Jun17 Apr18 Mar14 Feb07 Dec20 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 122 3.50    
2  ANDY'S CANDY Jun01 May11 Aug17 Jul15 Apr28 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 4.00 21% 3.80    
3  BEEZER Jun18 Jun04 Apr30 May11 Apr13 (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 10.00    
4  PURSE THIEF Jun18 Jun06 May09 Mar14 Feb26 (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00 5% 18.00    
5  VERTRAUEN Jun20 Apr30 Mar23 Feb16 Jan22 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 2.00 27% 2.70    
6  CALL THE CAVALRY Feb06 Jan15 Apr20 Jul15 Jun04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 12% 7.00    
7  GLOBAL LEGEND May22 Mar28 Mar07 Dec13 Oct19 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 6.00    
8  MIDNIGHT BOSS Jun19 May08 Apr11 Mar12 Feb12 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
 
ELP-3   07/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOD OF WINE Jun20 Jun06 May10 Apr16 Mar28 (cristel )RODRIGUEZ A 122 20.00 15% 5.70    
2  CARBONE Mar29 Feb23 Jan05 Jun30 May04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.00 ★    
3  STRING THEORY Jun15 Apr24 Apr06 Mar09 Jan18 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
4  EGLISE May26 Apr26 Mar29 Feb23 Jan23 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 2.00 31% 2.20    
5  CHARBONNAY Jun11 May08 Apr23 Mar15 Feb08 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
6  STORM THE STREETS Jun01 Apr13 Mar13 Feb20 Jan27 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 8.00    
7  LUDWIG May26 May01 Mar08 Feb22 Jun30 (bauer philip)TORRES A 122 2.50 23% 3.40    
 
ELP-4   07/12/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEBT PAID Feb27 Jun07 May01 Mar24 Feb13 (lovell miche)TORRES A 123 2.50 32% 2.20    
2  FEATHERS ROAD Apr24 Mar15 Feb14 Feb03 Jan18 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 123 3.50 26% 2.80    
3  SIX MISSIONS Jan26 Dec29 Dec08 Nov14 Sep25 (meah m)DOYLE SOPHIE 123 5.00    
4  FASTER Mar21 Feb28 Feb05 Jan18 Dec21 (tooley jenni)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 15.00    
5  OUR DREAM RYE'D Jun20 Apr26 Apr04 Jan24 Dec26 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 5.00    
6  FEAR AND LOATHING Jun24 May12 Apr16 Mar28 Feb28 (wisner j)LANERIE J 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  SIR PISTOLERO Jun16 Apr30 Apr09 Feb14 Jan17 (jacobson )TORRES A 123 6.00    
8  LONGSHADOW Jun04 May12 Mar28 Mar08 Jan24 (hancock dana)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00 14% 6.30    
 
ELP-5   07/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMANDED Jun20 May22 Apr04 Dec22 Nov23 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50    
2  MY BOSSY LADY Jun22 May17 Apr19 Feb27 Feb08 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.50 51% 1.00    
3  SPIRIT RULES Jun22 Apr25 Jan23 Nov30 Nov03 (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.50    
4  MOOCHIE GIRL Jun08 May02 Apr07 Feb26 Jan18 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  TAVRIA May16 Apr25 Mar12 Feb07 Jan03 (dixon jerry )BARBOSA CARLOS 118 20.00    
6  JUST AN OPINION Jun25 May11 Mar07 Jun21 Mar21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.00 19% 4.40    
SCR  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Jun18 May29 Mar29 Feb28 Feb02 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 6.00    
 
ELP-6   07/12/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY SECRET DREAMS         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of ARTY'S SECRET by SECRET CIRCLE)
2  LOVE A LITTLE MO         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 4.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of INJECT by FROSTED (GB))
3  CAROLYNCAROLINE         (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 119 25.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of LITTLE DIPPER by ESKENDEREYA)
4  CUP OF COFFEE         (corrigan jim)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of WAVES OF BLUE by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  MESCOOL Jun21 Jun05 May15 May03 Apr16 (torres marceli)ELLIOTT JANE 119 30.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of FASHIONABLY COOL by TIZNOW)
SCR  SPIN A TUNE         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of DESERT TUNE by STREET CRY)
7  LAST CURTAIN CALL         (oliver v)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of PRECIOUS LOVE by CITY ZIP)
8  GIVEMETHEBEAT Jun18 Apr30 Apr06     (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 24% 3.20    
  (by BEAU LIAM out of DRIFT AWAY by CONGRATS)
9  HUMOR ME BABY         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 2.50 25% 3.10    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUMOR ME COLONEL by COLONEL JOHN)
10  GO GO PLAYMATE         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MY JOY by KITTEN'S JOY)
11  QUEEN JUNO         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 3.50 26% 2.80    
  (by YAUPON out of DEHEREWEGO by DEHERE)
 
ELP-7   07/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CASILDA May09 Apr16 Feb20 Jan25 Dec28 (dutrow ri)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 41% 1.50    
2  SHE'S NO ANGEL Jun15 May09 Mar21 Nov22 Aug02 (shirer mat)HERNANDEZ J 125 2.50    
SCR  HAND IT OVER Jun19 Apr29 Mar20 Feb28 Dec28 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 125 12.00    
4  ITWILLBEFUN May25 Apr18 Feb17 Jan20 Dec29 (dutrow e)JUAREZ NIK 118 5.00 ★    
5  DAY DAWNING Jun12 Apr25 Mar07 Jan24 Jan05 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  WONDER OF YOU May15 May16 Feb23 Jan06 Nov18 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 123 6.00    
7  INDESCRIPTABLE Feb23 Jan02 Jun28 Jan07 Dec08 (cobb carol)GUTIERREZ MARIO 123 30.00    
8  CAROLINA SMOKESHOW Jun11 May08 Apr07 Mar04 Feb08 (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 31% 2.30    
 
ELP-8   07/12/2025 3630ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUSTINQUESO Jun19 Apr06 Mar06 Feb01 Dec19 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
2  MODERN SOUND Jun15 May17 Mar13 Jun06 Mar07 (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00 20% 4.00    
SCR  LA FORET Jun15 May17 Apr16 Mar08 Feb06 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 3.50    
4  MENDELA May02 Mar30 Feb24     (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  CAVATELLI Jun13 May17 Apr17 Sep04   (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
6  CARIBBEAN WIND Nov15 Oct19 Apr24     (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 4.50 ★    
7  MAGIC ESCAPADE Jun05 Apr16       (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MEZCALIFORNIA Jun04 May22 Apr07 Mar06 Feb14 (baker james)MONCADA IRVING 113 30.00    
SCR  LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) May29 Apr30 Mar21 Oct11   (stall m)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
SCR  MILLIAT (IRE) Jun07 Sep14 Jun28 Mar09 Feb03 (walsh bre)TORRES A 122 15.00    
11  MASCARA Jun04 May14 Apr17 Mar21 Nov06 (troiani nicc)TORRES A 118 30.00    
SCR  ISLE OF CAPRI Nov17 Sep11       (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
13  CARLISLE BAY Jun15 Apr17 Oct26 Aug23 Jul13 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  CLASSIC CLAIRE Jun11 Mar06 Feb16 Jan02 Oct16 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00    
 
ELP-9   07/12/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($31.25K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY SEXY BLONDE May18 Feb05 Sep07 Aug18 Jul21 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 124 5.00 14% 6.10    
SCR  NO APOLOGIES Jun17 Mar07       (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
3  FALL IN LOVE Jun12 May30 Mar16     (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
4  POWERWASHED Jun11 Aug29 Aug04     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00    
5  COCKTAIL HUMOR May30 May02 Mar15 Feb15 Jan18 (von donn)ROCCO S 118 25.00 9% 10.40    
SCR  MELLY'S BIRKIN Jun12 May26 May01 Mar15 Oct06 (cunningham s)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 4.00    
7  TIZ SALTY Jun14 May18 Mar07 Feb15 Jan02 (thompson )TORRES A 124 8.00 11% 8.00    
8  BULLET BABY May22 Dec18 Nov27 Oct23   (radcliffe robe)ELLIOTT JANE 118 25.00    
9  BERRYVILLE Jun15         (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 118 25.00    
10  MANY MO KISSES Jun14 May22 Apr24 Mar28 Mar06 (michael brian)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00    
11  MORGAN'S BLUFF Jun17 May19 Nov16 Oct25 Sep13 (ewing mic)LEPAROUX R 124 5.00 34% 1.90    
12  SR. MARY MARGARET May01 Apr09 Mar07 Jan24   (newton t)RODRIGUEZ A 118 25.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EDDIE'S ANGEL Jun20 May24 Apr21 Oct22 Sep09 (servis c)LANERIE J 118 4.50    
SCR  TECTONIC Jul11 Jun12 Mar01 Jan18 Sep26 (wojczynski jus)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.