Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 18, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/6/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/4/5)-(2/6/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/4/5)-(2/6/4/5)-(2/6/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/4/5)-(2/5/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4/5)-(2/5/1/7)-(5/4/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/5/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/1/7)-(2/5/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/1/7)-(2/5/1/7)-(2/5/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/1/7)-(5/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/5/1/7)-(5/4/3)-(9/11/3/4/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/3)-(5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/3)-(9/11/3/4/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3)-(9/11/3/4/1)-(4/3/5/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (9/11/3/4/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/11/3/4/1)-(9/11/3/4/1/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (9/11/3/4/1)-(9/11/3/4/1/2)-(9/11/3/4/1/2) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (9/11/3/4/1)-(4/3/5/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/11/3/4/1)-(4/3/5/1)-(1/2/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/3/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/5/1)-(4/3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/5/1)-(4/3/5/1)-(4/3/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/5/1)-(1/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5/1)-(1/2/5)-(1/3/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/6/4/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/6/4/2/5)-(1/6/4/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(1/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(1/3/7)-(1/6/3/12) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/7)-(1/3/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/7)-(1/3/7)-(1/3/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/7)-(1/6/3/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/6/3/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/3/12)-(1/6/9/3/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/6/3/12)-(1/6/9/3/12)-(1/6/9/3/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/18/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($82K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUNTTHEBRAVE Aug26 Jul03 May26 Mar22 Feb21 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
2  RISK IT Aug08 Jul13 Jun25 Apr29 Apr08 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 51% 1.00    
3  REDACTED Aug24 Jul26 Jun27 Jun12 May10 (hancock dana)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
4  PERFECT MAGIC Mar07 Feb01 Jan18 Dec06 Sep26 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  FULLY VOLATILE Aug16 Jun12 May03 Apr08 Feb22 (heitzman eri)TORRES A 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  TIMING DIFFERENCE May24 Mar23 Jan26 Feb18 Dec31 (knippenberg br)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 21% 3.80    
7  VASA Aug09 Jul18 May10     (sweezey ken)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50    
 
CD-2   09/18/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THUNDER ROLL Sep10 Aug11 Sep28 Aug24 Aug10 (mott william)TORRES A 120 5.00 14% 5.90    
  (by HARD SPUN out of CHARGED by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
2  COPP Aug11 Jun27 Nov30 Oct17 Sep12 (mccarthy mich)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 38% 1.70    
  (by BLAME out of SIERRA OLIVIA by PULPIT)
SCR  KING LEE Apr19         (romans dale)LANERIE J 120 12.00    
  (by BALANCE THE BOOKS out of SKY WILLOW by EMPIRE MAKER)
4  ALTIPLANO Aug11         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 120 4.50    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of AYMARA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  REVELLER'S CHEER         (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 120 2.00 18% 4.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of AMERICAN QUEEN by QUIET AMERICAN)
6  COURAGEOUS CLAY Aug01 May26 Apr08 Feb14 Jan04 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of SCATTERED THOUGHTS by SCAT DADDY)
7  BESTBALL Aug11         (heath destin )CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of WEMBLEY by BERNARDINI)
8  PIRANDELLO Sep27         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MARJAYOUN by GHOSTZAPPER)
 
CD-3   09/18/2025 4950ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($89K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA Aug08 Jun18 May28 Apr07 Feb16 (medina robert)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
2  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jul21 Jun26 May18 Sep29 Aug24 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 121 4.50    
3  ZAMBEZI Aug02 Jun28 May26 Apr25 Mar29 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  CLASSIC LEGACY Aug02 Jul03 Jun07 May01 Mar08 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 20% 4.00    
5  BUSHIDO Sep04 Aug10 Jul04 Jun03 Apr29 (jacobson )TORRES A 121 6.00 30% 2.30    
6  CONDEMN Jun28 May23 Nov09 Sep22 Jun14 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00    
SCR  HEART HEADED Jul25 May23 Apr05 Mar02 Feb01 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 121 5.00    
8  GUNNER BAY Aug02 Jun28 May18 Mar08 Feb13 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 121 2.50    
 
CD-4   09/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 6:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEX GO HONEY         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LEXITONIAN out of HONEY TRAP by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  ORVILLE'S MAP         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 ★    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of BOY CRAZY by SKY MESA)
3  MO BEACH TIME Aug09 Jul21 Jul05     (goodwin n)WILLIAMS JO 119 4.50 15% 5.80    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of IT'S MO TIME by UNCLE MO)
4  RACE READY         (casse w)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00 14% 6.20    
  (by READY'S IMAGE out of COME ON GET HAPPY by MR. GREELEY)
5  CHAYTON         (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of SWEETER THAN WINE by NOBLE MISSION (GB))
6  SUPER KICK Jul21         (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00    
  (by MITOLE out of AWESOME OMI by AWESOME AGAIN)
7  CHATTERFIELD Apr07         (mcguire l)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 10.00    
  (by MAXFIELD out of JUST TALKIN by MIDSHIPMAN)
SCR  KINGOFSOMEWHEREHOT Sep04         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by BEAU LIAM out of SNAP CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
9  THUNDER MURPHY Aug27         (desormeaux k)ROCCO S 119 6.00 15% 5.50    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of DERBY BRAVE by STREET SENSE)
10  THOUSAND SPIRITS         (chapman be)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of LIGHT CAT by INDYGO SHINER)
11  MAXXUS Aug23         (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 15% 5.50    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of SUPER DIVINE by DIVINE PARK)
12  PROJECT ACE         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of PLENTY O'TOOLE by RAISE A CUP)
13  CRYPTO CORY         (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 119 10.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of SOCIALITE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  NO BEES         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by BEE JERSEY out of NO EXTENSIONS by NOT BOURBON)
SCR  VINO SUBITO         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 12.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of TIZ JOSSELYN by TIZNOW)
 
CD-5   09/18/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHISELER Aug21 Aug03 Jul04 May24 Apr09 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  AMERICAN LAW Jul20 Jun25 Jun07 May18 Apr24 (shaffer e)JUAREZ NIK 121 12.00    
3  BURNINHUNKOFLOVE Jul12 May24 Apr24 Mar13 Jan19 (summers chad)ORTIZ L 121 4.00 21% 3.70    
4  GLOBAL SENSATION Aug21 Jul05 Jun20 May24 May02 (esquivel jes)TORRES A 121 6.00 40% 1.50    
5  MR. MELO Aug15 Jul26 Jul09 Jun27 Jun04 (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  UNCASHED Aug24 Jul27 Jul14 Jun19 Jun05 (rivelli )RODRIGUEZ A 121 3.50    
7  PAYNE Aug09 Jul14 Jun06 May11 Apr12 (foster er)TORRES A 121 2.50    
SCR  AIR COMBAT Aug02 Jul05 May24 Mar27 Jan31 (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00    
 
CD-6   09/18/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 7:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENZ Aug10 Jul14       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 1.40 72% 0.40    
  (by MCKINZIE out of MO KNOWS by UNCLE MO)
2  DANCIN IN OLD TOWN         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIT out of ABINGDON by STREET CRY)
3  STATUTORY         (damato philip)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of AGREEABLE MISS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  AMENDED DREAMER Aug16         (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of WINDMILL by STREET SENSE)
5  NO TIME LEFT         (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of GAMBIARRA by QUALITY ROAD)
6  BOURBON NOTES Aug03         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by CHARLATAN out of DEFY by INTO MISCHIEF)
7  RASPBERRY         (beckman whit)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by MONARCHOS out of HEART WARMER by DEVIL'S BAG)
8  BOUNCE Aug28         (mott william)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by TWO PUNCH out of WUMPS by OH SAY (IRE))
9  TIFFANY CROSS         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of TIFFANY'S GAL by LIAM'S MAP)
10  SUPERSONIC AGENDA         (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 119 30.00    
  (by KNOWN AGENDA out of CONCORD ECLIPSE by TIZNOW)
 
CD-7   09/18/2025 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIR GREYLIND Feb16 Jan25 Jan04 Dec06 May31 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  MACKMAN Feb16 Jan25 Dec13 Nov09 Oct12 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
3  BERNIN HOT Aug21 Jul09 Jun11 May09 Jan24 (crichton g)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 30% 2.40    
SCR  EL MAGNIFICO Aug11 Jun28 Jun06 May09 Apr13 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 122 3.50    
SCR  WINTERS LION Aug28 Jul31 Jul08 Jun14 May18 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 30.00    
6  STOWAWAY Aug13 May27 Dec10 Nov19 Oct29 (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
7  RESILIENCE Aug09 Jul12 Jun08 May02 Jun08 (mott william)TORRES A 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  DUKE OF DUVAL Aug09 Jul13 May24 Oct17 Sep15 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 12.00    
9  MONEY SUPPLY Aug22 Aug01 Jul05 Jun01 May01 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00    
 
CD-8   09/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MITTY'S GRIDDY Aug18 Sep12       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 35% 1.80    
SCR  MAJORITY OPINION Aug15 Aug02 May30 May03 Mar22 (johnson h)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
3  MAP TO THE STARS Aug02 Jun15 May23 Apr08 Mar04 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  JACK'S PROMISE Aug03 May25 May03 Apr06 Feb28 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 20.00    
SCR  GOLDENTOWN Aug08 Jul14 May10 Mar27 Mar01 (jones s)TORRES A 121 20.00    
6  AMOR PATRIAE Aug18 Jun21 May25 May02 Mar14 (divito jam)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 24% 3.10    
7  FAUST Aug08 Jul03 Jun21 May03 Apr19 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00    
8  MATH TUTOR Aug18 Jun07 May08 Feb22 Jan18 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
9  MO QUALITY Feb01 Jan04 Nov23 Oct23   (davis christop)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 ★    
10  TAYLOR'S VERSION Aug04 Jun27 May18     (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
11  MCDUDE Feb07 Dec13 Nov02 Sep28   (ortiz john )CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
12  HYMN (IRE) Jul03 Jun01 Apr19 Mar14 Feb08 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.