Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Arapahoe Park
Sunday - November 17, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ARP-1   WIN (2/5/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/7/4)-(2/5/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/7/4)-(2/5/7/4)-(2/5/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/7/4)-(3/4/5/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ARP-2   WIN (3/4/5/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/4/5/10/7)-(3/4/5/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/4/5/10/7)-(3/4/5/10/7)-(3/4/5/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ARP-3   WIN (3/7/5/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/7/5/8/9)-(3/7/5/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/7/5/8/9)-(3/7/5/8/9)-(3/7/5/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (3/7/5/8/9)-(7/6/8/12/5)-(8/5/11/2/9) 125 $1.00 $125 
ARP-4   WIN (7/6/8/12/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/8/12/5)-(7/6/8/12/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/8/12/5)-(7/6/8/12/5)-(7/6/8/12/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (7/6/8/12/5)-(8/5/11/2/9)-(1/6/5/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
ARP-5   WIN (8/5/11/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    TRI (8/5/11/2/9)-(8/5/11/2/9)-(8/5/11/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (8/5/11/2/9)-(1/6/5/7)-(3/6/1/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ARP-6   WIN (1/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5/7)-(3/6/1/4)-(8/4/7/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-7   WIN (3/6/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/1/4)-(3/6/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/1/4)-(3/6/1/4)-(3/6/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-8   WIN (8/4/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/7/2)-(8/4/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/7/2)-(8/4/7/2)-(8/4/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
ARP-1   11/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($12.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AZUSA STREET Nov01 Oct20 Sep19 Aug31 Jul18 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 124 4.50    
MAYA D Oct19 Sep27 Aug04 Jun23 Apr23 (martinez a)WALES T 122 3.50 47% 1.10    
MOBILEAGILEHOSTILE Nov01 Oct05 Sep27 Sep01 Aug11 (lavanway )IRONEYES R 124 8.00    
DANGERELLA Nov01 Oct20 Aug31 Aug24 Aug16 (leon alexis)ARANA MINOR 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
HEAVENLY VIOLET Sep07 Aug30 Aug17 Aug04 Jul14 (ortega joe)CARRENO J 124 10.00 17% 4.70    
SKYLAR'S FIRE Oct19 Sep28 Sep16 Aug31 Aug24 (ramaekers )FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 2.50    
ZACANGO PRIDE Oct25 Oct13 Sep21 Aug30 Aug18 (guadarrama o)CARILLO DANIEL 122 6.00 12% 7.50    
 
ARP-2   11/17/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($17K) 2 ALL PT- 2:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOLDEN BEAUTY Oct26 Sep28 Sep08 Aug11   (martinez )IRONEYES R 114 6.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of JUST FUNNIN' YA by CITY ZIP)
ROMAN EYES Oct26         (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 117 4.50    
  (by ROMAN GLADIATOR out of CLOSE YOUR EYES by NOT FOR LOVE)
ADETERMINEDMOM Sep28 Aug25 Aug02 Jul07 Jun17 (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 117 2.50 24% 3.10    
  (by COURT VISION out of CHELSEA'S LINCOLN by MULDOON)
THUNDERMOUNTAINMAN         (martinez a)RAMOS B 117 12.00 20% 4.10    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of PINK FREUD LIVE by FREUD)
STOLEN FUNDS Oct26 Oct13 Sep28 Sep08   (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 114 3.50 20% 4.10    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
GRIZZLED Sep22 Aug16       (mitchell chr)CARILLO DANIEL 120 8.00    
  (by UNDER CAUTION out of HANNAH GOT EVEN by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
SLEW CITY TIZ Oct13 Sep22 Aug25 Aug11 Jul21 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of TIZ WILLY by TIZNOW)
KING OF SWING Oct26 Sep29 Sep13 Aug17 Jul22 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 117 5.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SHE'S GIFTED by FLATTER)
SCR  BOTTLE CAPS Oct13 Sep29 Sep13 Aug25 Jul21 (williams dew)AGUILAR DANIEL 120 4.00    
  (by DADS CAPS out of AWESOME FOREVER by AWESOME AGAIN)
10  REDS CASHN GOLD         (thompson gra)NUNNALLY BLAKE 120 15.00 12% 7.30    
  (by GOLD FOR CASH out of RED HEADED WOMAN by CACTUS RIDGE)
11  STANFORD HOLIDAY Oct13 Aug25       (ortega joe)CARRENO J 117 4.00    
  (by STANFORD out of STARFIRE MIST by CURLIN)
 
ARP-3   11/17/2024 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRINCESS VANELLOPE Oct25 Oct12 Sep28 Sep15 Aug31 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 119 3.50    
GUTFIELD Oct18 Sep21 Sep09 Aug27 Aug07 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 121 2.50    
TIZKANDOIT Oct27 Oct05 Sep20 Jun28 Apr05 (rushton temp)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.50 50% 1.00    
EYES ON GLADIATOR Oct25 Oct13       (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 116 8.00    
ENDALE ARCH Oct25 Sep20 Aug30 Aug17 Aug04 (lavanway )IRONEYES R 124 10.00 6% 16.10    
PURE CRYSTAL Oct12 Oct05 Sep21 Jul13 Jun03 (arceo salv)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 8.00    
BIGPARTY NOWHISKEY Nov01 Oct18 Oct05 Sep20 Sep06 (rushton stets)CARDOSO DAVID 121 3.00 17% 4.80    
WOLFRAM Oct27 Oct05 Sep07 Sep01 Aug18 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
ORO Oct27 Oct12 Oct04 Sep22 Sep13 (jenkins l)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  SIMPLY ELEMENTARY Jul21 Jul14 Mar08 Feb13 Feb05 (stubblefield kenne)LARSEN S 124 6.00    
 
ARP-4   11/17/2024 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CREAM PUFF REAPER Oct26 Oct11 Sep27 Sep14 Aug13 (hibdon mar)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 4.50    
SPECIAL TWIST Nov03 Oct26 Sep27 Sep09 Aug27 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 15.00    
RICHIE'S GAL Oct18 Oct06 Sep14 Sep01 Aug16 (chavez ve)IRONEYES R 122 10.00    
OUR CLOVER GAL Nov03 Oct26 Oct11 Sep29 Sep15 (ibanez albe)VORRATH VALENTE 124 12.00    
JUST REMEMBER Oct27 Oct11 Sep11 Aug20 Jul30 (hall monk)CARILLO DANIEL 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
LOTTA PRADA Oct25 Oct04 Sep27 Sep06 Sep17 (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 121 3.50 14% 6.20    
BRASHANKNOWIT Oct19 Sep06 Aug09 Jul07 Apr21 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 5.00 47% 1.10    
GRACIE'S A TIGER Oct18 Sep29 Sep08 Aug04 Jul14 (martinez a)WALES T 124 2.50 5% 18.60    
TIFFANY'S FERRARI Oct11 Sep27 Sep14 Aug14 Jul23 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 2.00    
SCR  GAME TO PLAY Oct25 Oct13 Oct04 Sep22 Sep13 (diaz luis)CARDENAS JACOB 124 20.00    
11  FESSY Oct18 Oct13 Sep08 Aug23 Aug16 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 6.00    
12  ATHENAS SONG Sep22 Aug23 Aug05 Jul21 Dec10 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-5   11/17/2024 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SYNNIN AND WINNIN Oct26 Oct04 Sep21 Sep02 Aug18 (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 124 10.00    
LOOKIN FOR LOKI Oct26 Sep22 Aug28 Aug07 Jul20 (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 6% 17.00    
HAIL STATE Nov02 Oct20 Sep28 Jul17 Jun25 (lavanway dayson)CARRENO J 124 5.00    
ROUGE SUNSET Oct25 Oct06 Sep22 Sep06 Aug25 (barriga diaz)CARDENAS JACOB 124 10.00    
BRAYBRAY Oct20 Sep08 Jul21 Jun15 May02 (martinez a)WALES T 124 2.00 20% 4.00    
SERENDIP RULER Sep06 Aug24 Aug04 Jul28 Jul11 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 6.00    
JAMES'S MOONSHINE Oct26 Oct18 Sep27 Sep15 Aug23 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 8.00    
UNBOWED Oct06 Aug21 Jul16 Jun28 Jun23 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50 30% 2.30    
BLUE SKYE JADE Nov02 Oct20 Oct11 Sep28 Sep14 (williams )IRONEYES R 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  TAP TAP HUSTO Oct18 Oct06 Sep22 Jun30 Sep09 (chavez jos)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 4.50    
11  ROCHESTER'S FINEST Oct26 Oct11 Sep22 Sep08 Aug31 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00 19% 4.30    
12  ITS A DEAL Oct11 Sep22 Aug24 Aug03 Jun29 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 10.00    
 
ARP-6   11/17/2024 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Butch Gleason Classic Purse ($38.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LOVELY LOLA Oct19 Sep29 Sep08 Aug25 Aug11 (ortega joe)WALES T 124 2.00 28% 2.60    
  (by FLATTER out of ROYALTY by BIRDSTONE)
DRIVEHAPPY Oct12 Sep20 Sep08 Aug07 Jul14 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 6.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ENTRUSTMENT by FORESTRY)
HARD TO COME BY Oct26 Oct12 Sep13 Aug28 Aug14 (hibdon mar)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of RELIQUARY by PULPIT)
SCR  THUNDERSHOOK Nov01 Oct11 Sep28 Sep14 Sep01 (dieter dalton)HAAR NATHAN 124 12.00    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of SONG CAT by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
LORRAINE'S LEGACY Oct19 Oct05 Aug25 Jul27 Jul05 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 4.00 19% 4.30    
  (by INCLUDE out of LOVING LORRAINE by BERNSTEIN)
MR. THUNDERSTRUCK Oct12 Sep07 Aug26 Aug10 Aug02 (stivers j)RAMOS B 124 4.50 23% 3.40    
  (by DOMINUS out of KISSINLEAF by KISSIN KRIS)
MY MAN BIGGIE Mar18 Feb15 Nov08 Sep30 Sep11 (ortega joe)CARRENO J 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MR. BIG out of TWIN SPIRIT by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
SUBSIDIZE Oct12 Oct04 Sep20 Sep02 Aug24 (rushton temp)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 2.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DIVA STAR by AMERICAN CHAMP)
SCR  SEAHAWK CODY Oct12 Sep08 Aug10 Jul27 Jul07 (rust terr)IRONEYES R 124 3.50    
  (by CHAMP PEGASUS out of DIVA'S TRIBUTE by HENNY HUGHES)
10  ATHENS MOON Oct18 Sep29 Sep13 Aug14 Jul23 (kemper ke)TRIANA JR 124 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of GASP by TINAJERO)
 
ARP-7   11/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PAYNTER'S BOY Nov02 Oct19 Oct04 Sep13 Sep01 (rushton t)MEDINA ANGEL 124 4.50 11% 8.40    
TAP THE BRAKES Oct27 Oct11 Oct05 Sep16 Aug30 (arceo salv)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00    
OUTRIGHT Oct20 Sep21 Sep14 Sep01 Aug17 (ramaekers eric)RAMOS B 124 2.50 46% 1.20    
PREACHER Oct27 Oct18 Oct05 Jun29 Jun09 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 8.00 6% 15.10    
KICKIN' CHARLIE Nov01 Oct06 Sep07 Aug30 Aug18 (tsosie terri)CARDENAS JACOB 122 12.00    
PRINCE OTTO Nov01 Oct20 Oct06 Apr16 Apr02 (esquibel mar)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 3.50 11% 7.90    
RIVERSPORT Oct26 Oct19 Oct05 Sep28 Sep13 (ibanez alber)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 15.00    
WILD FIREMAKER Nov02 Oct25 Oct18 Sep06 Aug25 (tsosie terrill)LARSEN S 124 8.00    
 
ARP-8   11/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Gold Rush Futurity Purse ($54.5K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LINDA'S MAP Sep18         (moreno car)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 120 4.50    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MAGDALENA'S MOMENT by HARBOR THE GOLD)
GINGER IN CHARGE Aug25 Aug16 Jul21 Jul07   (mitchell chris )ARANA MINOR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BARKLEY out of SARAH IN CHARGE by HIGH BRITE)
SCR  DON'T FLY STAND BY Sep28 Aug09 Jul22     (eikleberry kevin)TOHILL S 120 2.50    
  (by UPSTART out of MISS EMELINA by BIG BROWN)
CLOUD BLITZ Jul07         (martinez a)RAMOS B 120 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of RED SHELBY by GREATNESS)
SCR  SPORTING STAR Sep28         (williams )IRONEYES R 120 5.00    
  (by SPORTING CHANCE out of HAMMETT STAR by REVERSAL)
FRIENDLY SPIRIT Oct26 Sep08 Aug09 Jul21 Jul07 (parsons r)TRIANA JR 120 6.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SMART STING by SMART STRIKE)
KOSARI Oct26 Sep29       (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 3.50 7% 13.70    
  (by AUDIBLE out of CONJURESS by INDIAN CHARLIE)
RUNNIN ON PROMISES Sep21 Aug16 Jul20 Jun22 May31 (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 120 1.00 38% 1.60    
  (by PROMISES FULFILLED out of RUNNIN FOR TUITION by HANSEN)
SAHARA KARA Oct26 Jul20       (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 120 10.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of SANDHILL LADY by OLIVER'S TWIST)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.