Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Charles Town
Saturday - May 04, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CT-1   WIN (1/4/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/3/7)-(1/4/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/3/7)-(1/4/3/7)-(1/4/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/3/7)-(2/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3/7)-(2/5/4)-(1/2/5/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-2   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/4)-(1/2/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/5/4)-(1/2/5/4)-(6/1/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-3   WIN (1/2/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/5/4)-(1/2/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/5/4)-(1/2/5/4)-(1/2/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/5/4)-(6/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5/4)-(6/1/5)-(5/8/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-4   WIN (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/5)-(6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/5)-(5/8/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5)-(5/8/3)-(3/6/5/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-5   WIN (5/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/3)-(5/8/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/8/3)-(5/8/3/1)-(5/8/3/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/8/3)-(3/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/3)-(3/6/5/4)-(3/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-6   WIN (3/6/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/4)-(3/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/4)-(3/6/5/4)-(3/6/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/5/4)-(3/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5/4)-(3/4/6)-(4/7/8/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-7   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/6)-(4/7/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-8   WIN (4/7/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/8/1)-(4/7/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/8/1)-(4/7/8/1)-(4/7/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CT-1   05/04/2024 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PAPA DON Mar23 Aug12 Jul07 Jun10 May20 (shuler jo)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 2.50 30% 2.30    
  (by DANZA out of FLOATING DREAM by GHOSTZAPPER)
ROCK ANNA ROLL Feb07 Jan19 Apr28 Mar31 Mar17 (stites w)ACOSTA D 124 3.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of DECO ROCKS by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
JOHN'S GLORY         (malgarini mawing)MAWING A 124 10.00 10% 9.30    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of INDIGO SKY by CHEROKEE'S BOY)
STAYINYOURLANE Apr12 Jul13 Jun10 May18 Apr29 (binning matth)ADAMS L 117 1.60 16% 5.30    
  (by ACCELERATE out of INFRACTION by TAPIT)
WHISKEY AND WINE Feb01 Jan11 Oct12 Aug03 Jul14 (viands grego)BATISTA A 124 5.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of BRANDY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
GOLDEN DORO         (cuttino marion )RODRIGUEZ V 124 15.00    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of HOT DUDETTE by COWTOWN CAT)
TECH DUINN Apr12 Oct20 Sep14 Jul14 Jun16 (venham d)CHILO MAXIMO 116 50.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BIG BROWN out of SEAHAG by CASHEL CASTLE)
 
CT-2   05/04/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($18.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHAMELESS RISK Oct18 Sep16 Aug25 Jul14 Jun30 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 3.00    
CAPTAIN CREED Apr18 Mar27 Jan25 Nov18 Oct28 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 4.00 27% 2.70    
NICKEL NICKEL Apr19 Mar16 Feb29 Feb12 Dec26 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 3.50    
BALI'S SHADE Dec15 Nov02 Oct18 Sep01 Aug17 (murtaugh andre)REAP E 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
ALLEN CAN DO IT Apr19 Mar16 Feb29 Feb07 Jan25 (brown )ARAUJO VICENTE 124 3.00 25% 3.10    
YO VINNIE Mar21 Feb23 Dec16 Nov18 Oct28 (runco c)CHAVEZ ANDRES 117 2.50    
 
CT-3   05/04/2024 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DEBT RELIEF Apr12 Mar27 Mar02 Jan26 Jan03 (grams timothy )REYNOLDS C 116 1.80 31% 2.20    
  (by COLLECTED out of TIZ A BRITE MISS by HIGH BRITE)
COLLECTED DREAMS Apr13 Mar28 Feb11 Jan27 Jan06 (perez ernesto)GALVAN JHAIR 116 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by COLLECTED out of JOYFUL DREAMS by KITTEN'S JOY)
P B FOXY Apr12 Apr04 Nov09 Oct19 Sep28 (venham d)CHILO MAXIMO 116 15.00    
  (by WAR CORRESPONDENT out of POSEIDON'S BLUFF by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
MAIDENS BLUSH Apr13 Nov11       (mckee cyn)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of HOLIDAY APPLE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SAFFRON         (mckee cynt)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 116 10.00 18% 4.70    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DANCE AGAIN by WILD WONDER)
LOKI'S LIGHTNING Aug21 Jul31 Jul10 Jun26 May30 (carlisle jo)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 4.50    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of BEAR'S LIGHTNING by MARIA'S MON)
SCR  J J'S JOY Apr05 Mar16 Feb25     (comi w)PELTROCHE F 116 10.00    
  (by EL DEAL out of HO JOY by SILVER GHOST)
ZIPPY DO DA DAY Apr07 May14 Apr16 Mar10 Feb17 (samaniego jose)ACOSTA D 124 5.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of FULL OF ZIP by CITY ZIP)
 
CT-4   05/04/2024 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THELASTSAY Apr18 Mar07 Feb16 Jan27   (shuler joh)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 116 3.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  DIVA ROSE Apr11 Mar23 Feb28 Jan31 Jan10 (craig e)RIVERA JAVIER 120 15.00    
SCR  CASTLE OF CAYLEE Apr19 Apr05 Mar14 Mar01 Feb09 (rideout m)HO WESLEY 120 20.00    
SPARKLEINYOUREYE Apr18 Apr05 Mar14 Mar07 Feb15 (jones m)ORTIZ ORLANDO 120 3.50    
ANOTHER FINE JUBA Mar06 Feb16 Jan27 Jan05 Nov24 (boggs joanna)CHILO MAXIMO 118 4.50 5% 19.00    
LADY RAMBO Apr19 Mar20       (murdock s)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 1.40 33% 2.00    
HERE'S A QUARTER Apr18 Apr05 Mar07 Feb15 Jan05 (atkins mi)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 116 12.00    
 
CT-5   05/04/2024 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUBA BOUND Apr18 Mar16 Mar02 Feb10 Jan04 (knoblauch-perez)BOCACHICA O 124 4.50    
OZONE Feb25 Feb02 Dec31 Dec17 Oct29 (viands grego)BATISTA A 118 6.00    
TIMMY Apr18 Mar23 Mar02 Feb10 Jan04 (dillow jo)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 8.00 6% 16.30    
SMOKIN SMITTY Apr19 Apr05 Mar28 Mar13 Feb24 (campbell la)MCKENZIE CONNIE 120 30.00    
HOPPING HENRY Apr06 Mar16 Feb24 Feb03 Jan04 (sterling michae)PELTROCHE F 124 1.60 35% 1.90    
SCR  CRUZIN FOR CHAOS Jan24 Nov07 Oct11     (viands gregor)ADAMS L 111 10.00    
ADIOS COOL ARROWS Mar21 Feb28 Feb09 Dec01 Nov10 (delong ben)MENDEZ MARSHALL 118 6.00    
TRIPLE BAD Apr18 Feb10 Nov30 Nov16 Jan26 (wilhelm)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 4.00 35% 1.90    
 
CT-6   05/04/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THANK YA PETE Aug26 Aug17 Aug02 Jul14 Jul01 (cooney s)HO WESLEY 120 15.00    
Z MYSTIQUE Apr06 Mar14 Feb22 Feb10 Jan12 (viands )NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 5.00    
CAJUN JOE Apr27 Mar23 Mar07 Feb17 Feb01 (mangual manolo)ACOSTA D 118 1.20 28% 2.60    
AGAIN WE MEET Apr11 Mar21 Feb22 Jan31 Jan10 (sewell lenwo)MARRERO CARLOS 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
TREJO Apr11 Mar21 Dec13 Jan14 Dec16 (pickett crystal)BOCACHICA O 122 15.00 14% 6.00    
JUDY'S ARMY Apr11 Mar21 Oct22 Sep10 Aug11 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 1.60 27% 2.80    
MY HANDSOME MAN Apr18 Feb23 Feb07 Jan25 Dec09 (ovando)ARAUJO VICENTE 122 12.00    
 
CT-7   05/04/2024 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($31.3K) 3UP M/F PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIGHTNIN RUNNER Apr13 Mar23 Mar08 Feb10 Jan10 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 0.60    
DECO STRONG Mar08 Feb10 Jan24 Dec17 Nov20 (stites w)ACOSTA D 120 8.00    
MOONLIT SHADOW Apr13 Mar23 Mar08 Feb10 Jan10 (grams timothy )REYNOLDS C 120 4.00 30% 2.40    
HAPPY CLOUDS Oct27 Oct07 Sep17 Aug12 Jul21 (gillespie)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 6.00 28% 2.60    
SWEET GRACIE Apr07 Feb18 Jan28 Nov18 Oct14 (allen ferris)MENA E 120 20.00    
AZZURRA Apr13 Mar08 Feb10 Jan24 Jan10 (barber dona)REYNOLDS AUSTIN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LACE REVOLUTION Nov25 Nov09 Oct26 Aug12 Jul22 (shanley m)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 15.00    
 
CT-8   05/04/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.7K) 3UP ALL PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAPIO (IRE) Apr13 Mar23 Feb21 Jan27 Jan11 (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
MUD BUG Mar23 Dec02 Nov11 Oct21 Sep30 (walters da)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 15.00    
POLAR WIND Apr12 Mar22 Mar01 Feb22 Feb08 (jones mic)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 6.00    
AUBURN MILL Mar28 Mar07 Feb15 Jan25 Dec06 (magee )LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 1.60 50% 1.00    
RAISE A SPEIGHTS Apr13 Mar13 Feb25 Feb07 Dec08 (pickett crystal )ACOSTA D 122 4.00    
SPRITZER Apr13 Mar16 Mar01 Feb07 Jan05 (carlisle john)LOPEZ ANTONIO 122 12.00    
MARK DID IT Apr12 Mar20 Feb23 Feb07 Jan18 (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 4.50 14% 6.30    
GOLDEN APPEAL Apr13 Mar22 Feb29 Jan25 Nov22 (craig e)RIVERA JAVIER 122 6.00 9% 9.60    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.