Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - February 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2)-(1/2/7/4)-(1/2/7/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/2)-(8/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2)-(8/5/7)-(1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TAM-2   WIN (8/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/7)-(8/5/7/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/7)-(8/5/7/3/4)-(8/5/7/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/5/7)-(1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (8/5/7)-(1)-(10) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
TAM-3   WIN (1) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (1)-(1/8/5/2) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (1)-(1/8/5/2)-(1/8/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1)-(10) 1 $1.00 $1.00 
    PK3 (1)-(10)-(7/4/2) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
TAM-4   WIN (10) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (10)-(10/8/2/4) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (10)-(10/8/2/4)-(10/8/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (10)-(7/4/2) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (10)-(7/4/2)-(1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
TAM-5   WIN (7/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/2)-(7/4/2/5/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/2)-(7/4/2/5/9)-(7/4/2/5/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/4/2)-(1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (7/4/2)-(1)-(5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TAM-6   WIN (1) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (1)-(1/6/3/7/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1)-(1/6/3/7/2)-(1/6/3/7/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1)-(5/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (1)-(5/1)-(5/3/2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
TAM-7   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1)-(5/1/6/2)-(5/1/6/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5/1)-(5/3/2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(5/3/2/4)-(10/4/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-8   WIN (5/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/2/4)-(5/3/2/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/3/2/4)-(5/3/2/6/4)-(5/3/2/6/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/3/2/4)-(10/4/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TAM-9   WIN (10/4/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/4/9)-(10/4/9/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/4/9)-(10/4/9/2/1)-(10/4/9/2/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   02/17/2023 5400ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 ALL PT-12:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONOR LEO JEAN Jan22         (hamm timothy)MORALES PABLO 120 3.00 14% 6.00    
2  RED OCTOBER Feb03 Jan11 Dec22 Dec07   (escobar alison)MBATHA LUCKY 110 5.00 6% 15.20    
SCR  TEE AT ONE         (vinson john )BATISTA A 120 2.50 55% 0.80    
4  HE'S CONNECTED Jan27 Dec28 Dec03 Sep25 Sep04 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 15.00 ★    
5  ICETECA Jan27 Jan08 Nov05 Oct28   (smith r)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 12.00    
6  DON CINCO Jan27 Jan08       (gatis chris)SOSA LAUREANO 113 15.00    
7  HOP AND SCOTCH Jan27 Jan07 Dec10 Nov27 Nov03 (lopez robert)SPIETH S 120 3.50 ★    
8  TAKING WHAT'S MINE Feb01 Jan06 Dec10     (brooks g)GALLARDO A 120 8.00    
 
TAM-2   02/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($14K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIOVANE'S PROMISE Jan27 Jan13 Oct19 Oct05 Sep21 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 119 20.00    
2  BAM BAM WARRIOR Jan27 Jan13 Dec28 Dec14 Sep28 (torre)DIAZ RAFAEL 119 6.00    
3  SWIFT KID Jan13 Dec28 Dec09 Aug24 Aug01 (machado antoni)MARIN SAMUEL 119 6.00 ★    
4  EL POLICIA Feb03 Jan28 Jan08 Dec28 Dec14 (sacco gregory)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 5.00 ★    
5  REINER Jan27 Jan13 Dec09 Dec02 Oct18 (ferraro anth)CAMACHO SAMY 119 4.50 25% 3.00    
6  TEDDY'S HONOR Jan28 Jan15 Dec07 Nov23 Jul01 (wasiluk peter)IORIO MELISSA 109 30.00    
7  HAD RIGHT Feb03 Jan27 Jan08 Dec02 Sep23 (ochoa )ROJAS EDUARDO 119 3.00 8% 11.00    
8  KINGSTOWN Jan27 Jan13 Dec04 Nov12 Oct16 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 119 2.50 42% 1.40    
 
TAM-3   02/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUR FANTASY Dec11 Nov04 Oct09 Sep23 Aug27 (barboza victor)CAMACHO SAMY 122 1.40 61% 0.60    
2  WORKING OVERTIME Feb01 Jan08 Dec24 Dec09 Oct12 (wasiluk peter)JIMENEZ MANNY 122 12.00 ★    
SCR  CALENDULA         (nunez maurici)SOSA LAUREANO 115 20.00    
SCR  LADY TEUFLESBERG Jan28 Oct31 Oct21 Aug27 Aug05 (bennett gerald)ALLEN D 122 5.00 6% 16.50    
5  MA MEATLOAF Jan22 Jan01 Dec10 Nov26 Oct19 (ferraro ant)IORIO MELISSA 112 10.00 ★    
6  LOOK UP TO HEAVEN Jan20 Jan08 Dec26 Dec04 Nov19 (rivera xavi)CLEMENTE ALFRED 122 10.00    
7  MELANCHOLY BLUES Feb01 Jan20 Dec28 Aug29 Jul15 (wilson tony)FELICIANO R 122 4.00    
8  CHARGE IT JENN Dec22 Nov25 Oct15 Sep16 Aug11 (carrascojr v)ARROYO S 122 5.00 ★    
 
TAM-4   02/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($13K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOYOUS FAIRY TALE Feb01 Dec23 May04 Apr01 Mar13 (scocca lin)ROWLAND MADELINE 122 20.00    
2  RIPLEY EFFECT Feb01 Jan15 Dec21 Nov25 Oct14 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 122 4.50 ★    
3  BYZANTINE EMPIRE Jan22 Dec22 Dec07 Nov26 Oct02 (burns patrici)FLORES ADRIAN 122 20.00    
4  ALBA MIA Nov25 Oct23 Sep03 Jul16 Jun19 (minguet ramon)MARIN SAMUEL 122 20.00 ★    
5  REDZILLA Feb04 Jan15 Jan04 Dec22 Dec10 (paragallo jen)SOSA LAUREANO 115 8.00    
SCR  LIBERTALIA Jan08 Dec21 Oct06 Sep26 Sep07 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 122 4.50 ★    
7  WICKED SAUCY Feb01 Dec22 Dec16 Dec02 Sep24 (nunez mauric)ARROYO S 122 10.00    
8  LEGEND'S SONG Jan22 Jan08 Dec23 Nov30 Oct15 (wilson tony)JIMENEZ MANNY 122 3.50 ★    
9  OUR LA DOLCE VITA Jan27 Dec16       (fisher david)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 12.00    
10  FUNNY ENOUGH Feb04 Dec28 Feb03     (heming)ROJAS EDUARDO 122 2.50 73% 0.40    
 
TAM-5   02/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 F PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PEACE FIRE Feb08 Jan15 Jul01     (lopez mario )BATISTA A 120 30.00    
2  HYDRIA         (orseno joseph )MARIN SAMUEL 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  SORTARIA Jan29 Jan13 Jan01 Dec15   (minguet ra)ROWLAND MADELINE 120 12.00    
4  MISS KRISTY Jan05 Nov13 Oct12 Sep07 Aug10 (cibelli jane)CAMACHO SAMY 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
5  MARISSATHEPRINCESS Feb05 Jan19 Dec30 Dec07 Nov06 (chavez a)VILLA-GOMEZ H 120 6.00 ★    
6  ESTILO AMOROSO Feb08         (arriagada jua)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 8.00    
7  FREE SHOT Jan11 Dec28 Dec03 Nov25 Oct12 (bennett s)FERRER C 120 3.00 37% 1.70    
8  WICKLOW GAL Feb03 Jan13 Dec14 Dec03 Nov11 (miller rory )MENESES MARCOS 120 15.00    
9  BANK BUSTER Feb03 Jan29 Dec11 Nov27 Sep16 (ryan derek)MITCHELL RICHARD 120 6.00 ★    
10  EMPIRE GIRL Jan21 Oct24 Sep24     (sanchez jose )SOSA LAUREANO 113 6.00    
 
TAM-6   02/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($16K) Purse ($23.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MACHISMO Jan15 Nov26 Sep29 Jun11 May12 (poole a)CENTENO E 118 3.00 67% 0.50    
2  HIDE THE DEMON Feb03 Jan11 Dec16 Nov26 Nov06 (arriagada jua)JIMENEZ MANNY 118 4.50 ★    
3  IMPERIAL KING Feb01 Dec16 Nov26 Nov05 Oct15 (rigattieri jo)MORALES PABLO 122 3.50 ★    
SCR  NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY Feb01 Sep15 Aug01 Jul13 Jun25 (poole a)FELICIANO R 118 8.00    
5  SAN COSTANTINO Jan29 Jan06 Dec09 Nov23 Oct20 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 120 4.50    
6  MAGICAL WARRIOR Jan07 Dec11 Oct15 Sep18 Sep06 (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 118 4.00 ★    
7  STRANGE ARRANGE Dec30 Oct20 Sep15 Aug24 Jul27 (kintz s )GALLARDO A 118 10.00 ★    
 
TAM-7   02/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($32K) Purse ($28K) 3 ALL PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLAWLESS CAT Dec21 Oct20 Oct02     (dini mike)ROWLAND MADELINE 119 6.00 13% 6.80    
2  SOUTHPAW MIKE Feb04 Jan08 Sep30 Sep03   (mccarthy bre)BATISTA A 119 12.00 ★    
3  JOE'S HAD ENOUGH Jan28 Dec28 Oct23 Sep30 Sep04 (granitz anthony )FERRER C 119 4.50    
4  KING SPARROW Jan20 Dec28 Dec03 Sep30 Sep11 (richards ren)ARROYO S 119 6.00    
5  POSSIBLEMENTE Jan28 Dec21 Dec03 Sep24   (rodriguez dari)CAMACHO SAMY 119 2.50 37% 1.70    
6  BRAMBLE BLAZE Feb04 Dec07 Oct02 Sep17 Aug14 (dini mike)MORALES PABLO 119 5.00 ★    
7  HUASTECO Feb02 Jan01 Aug27 Jul30   (gutier)ROJAS EDUARDO 119 6.00    
8  PLEASANT VALIANT Dec22 Nov25       (o'connel)GALLARDO A 121 8.00    
SCR  GRAND MACALLAN Jan18 Dec03 Nov06 Oct08   (barboza vict)BATISTA A 119 8.00    
SCR  GRAND PICK Jan28 Dec21 Oct30 Sep11 Aug13 (barboza vict)MENESES MARCOS 121 3.00 27% 2.60    
 
TAM-8   02/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($17K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SIR AGGRAVATOR Jan22 Jan04 Dec21 Nov20 Sep24 (delgado jose)BATISTA A 119 3.50    
2  BAZOO Jan25 Dec31 Dec16 Nov23 Oct15 (delgado )GALLARDO A 119 4.00 21% 3.70    
3  ROYAL SQUEEZE Jan22 Dec26 Dec09 Oct30 Oct08 (jackson gary)MENESES MARCOS 119 6.00 23% 3.40    
4  I'M MONEY Feb05 Dec16 Oct10 Sep21 Sep07 (cahill f)BUSH V 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  VINNIE VAN GO Feb08 Jan22 Jan07 Dec09 Nov20 (carrascojr vi)MORALES PABLO 119 2.00 24% 3.10    
6  GOLOVKIN Jan27 Jan07 Oct25 Oct04 Sep15 (pimental john )MARIN SAMUEL 119 5.00 ★    
7  BAHAMIAN DUDE Jan22 Oct24 Oct10 Aug16 Jul25 (davis rich)ROWLAND MADELINE 117 15.00    
8  RIDGEPOINTE Jan28 Jan13 Dec16 Aug20 Aug03 (lopez r)IORIO MELISSA 109 10.00    
 
TAM-9   02/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 F PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  D'ORO BABY Jan21 Nov17 Nov05     (ochoa gerard)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 8.00 ★    
2  REBATE Jan21 Dec30 Nov25 Oct30 Oct16 (richards ren)ARROYO S 120 12.00 ★    
3  LADY KITTY Jan21 Dec30 Dec16 Nov25 Oct09 (santillana fr)ALICEA JEREMY 113 30.00    
4  GO MIKA Jan21 Jan04 Dec22 Dec01 Oct23 (wilson tony)MARIN SAMUEL 120 4.50 21% 3.70    
5  SUNSHINE GIRL Jan29 Jan13 Dec28 Dec03 Oct06 (bennett gerald)ALLEN D 120 12.00    
6  CAIRO WINNER Jan21 Nov25 Oct30 Oct07   (barboza vict)BATISTA A 120 8.00    
7  I LOVE IRELAND Jan21 Dec15 Nov27 Oct30 Sep11 (orseno)ROJAS EDUARDO 120 8.00    
8  INSATIABLE EVA Jan21 Aug21 Aug05     (laurato v)SPIETH S 120 30.00    
9  COLLECTIVE GOLD Jan21 Jan06 Dec14 Nov25 Oct21 (sacco gregory )SUAREZ ANGEL 120 4.00 5% 19.00    
10  WATER FIGHT Jan06 Nov30 Oct12 Aug28   (delacour arnau)CAMACHO SAMY 120 2.00 51% 0.90    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.