Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 07, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/3/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/4/6)-(5/3/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/4/6)-(5/3/4/6)-(5/3/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/4/6)-(1/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/4/6)-(1/5/2)-(7/3/2/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/2)-(1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/2)-(7/3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2)-(7/3/2/5)-(6/4/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/3/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/2/5)-(7/3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2/5)-(7/3/2/5)-(7/3/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/2/5)-(6/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2/5)-(6/4/2)-(5/10/9/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/2)-(6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/2)-(5/10/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2)-(5/10/9/4)-(8/1/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/10/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/10/9/4)-(5/10/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/10/9/4)-(5/10/9/4)-(5/10/9/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/10/9/4)-(8/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/10/9/4)-(8/1/4)-(2/1/8/5/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/4)-(8/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/4)-(8/1/4)-(8/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/4)-(2/1/8/5/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4)-(2/1/8/5/3)-(8/12/2/6/1) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/1/8/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/1/8/5/3)-(2/1/8/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/1/8/5/3)-(2/1/8/5/3)-(2/1/8/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/1/8/5/3)-(8/12/2/6/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/1/8/5/3)-(8/12/2/6/1)-(2/10/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-8   WIN (8/12/2/6/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/12/2/6/1)-(8/12/2/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/12/2/6/1)-(8/12/2/6/1)-(8/12/2/6/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/12/2/6/1)-(2/10/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (2/10/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/10/8)-(2/10/8/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/10/8)-(2/10/8/4)-(2/10/8/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/07/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($69K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLT FORTY SEVEN Oct23 Sep03 Aug23 Aug02 Jun16 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
2  SMOLS Oct09 Sep28 Sep06 Aug23 Jul25 (munoz carlos)TREJOS JOSEPH 118 5.00    
3  TINGUS PINGUS Oct08 Sep17 Aug09     (blair jord)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 25% 3.00    
4  BIG D Aug28 Aug03       (block chris)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 24% 3.20    
5  MISCHIEF MANIA Sep06 Jul09 Jun19     (cox h)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 29% 2.50    
6  CUZIN ROSCOE Oct09 Sep12 Aug14     (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  PERFECT AUDIBLE Oct24 Oct03 Sep13 Aug01   (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50    
 
CD-2   11/07/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEZCALIFORNIA Oct16 Sep20 Aug08 Jun04 May22 (weaver george)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 51% 1.00    
2  VIRAL PLANE LADY Oct02 Sep20 Aug10 Jul04 Jun24 (labra ro)RODRIGUEZ A 118 6.00 6% 15.30    
3  CAROLINA CANDY Aug08 Jun25 Jun11 May15 Apr10 (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00    
4  MOM'S CHEESECAKE Oct10 Sep14 Aug11 Jun27 Jun04 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50    
5  BROOKLYNN DREW Sep17 Aug16 Jul19 Jun18 May17 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 13% 6.60    
6  CREATIVE QUALITY May23 Apr26 Mar29 Mar07 Feb13 (foster er)TORRES A 120 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/07/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 2 F PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CROWN OF VIOLENCE Oct16         (moreno t)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
2  AMAZING LADY         (calhoun willia)ASHTON GAVIN 119 10.00 13% 6.80    
3  ALTA AVENUE Sep20 Aug16       (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 17% 4.80    
4  LADY NVIDA Aug31 Aug11       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
5  MORE SWEETS         (waltz bri)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 10.00 13% 6.80    
6  BERLINWIN Oct05         (ortiz )GRISALES DANILO 119 4.00    
7  MISS MO MAGIC Oct05         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 27% 2.80    
SCR  P. O. S. H. POSH Oct05 Sep10 Aug23     (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 4.50    
 
CD-4   11/07/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRONG QUALITY Oct17 Sep12 Jun19 Apr06 Jan31 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00    
2  KUPUNA Sep28 Jul05 Jun01 May03 Apr05 (casse nor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 10% 8.80    
SCR  QUATROCENTO Oct04 Sep10 Aug31 Aug08 Jul03 (gutierrez)LEPAROUX R 123 2.50    
4  NORTHERN INVADER Aug29 Jul20 May29 Apr11 Feb01 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 121 5.00 19% 4.20    
5  EPIC RIDE Oct04 Sep06 Aug02 Jun07 May17 (ennis john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 2.00    
6  EMMANUEL Sep28 Aug31 Aug15 Jun28 May03 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 123 3.50 23% 3.40    
7  PAROS Sep28 Aug28 Mar22 Mar01 Feb01 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
 
CD-5   11/07/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RUN TZU         (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of FIXER UPPER by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  TAP EM' OUT Jul10 Apr16 Mar27 Oct10 Sep25 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 30.00    
  (by TAPIT out of INDIA by HENNESSY)
3  FLAMEFIRE         (morzan javier)TREJOS JOSEPH 122 30.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of VINYATA by VINDICATION)
4  POLICY CHANGE Sep19 Aug15 Jul27 Aug17   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of EXCITED by CONQUISTADOR CIELO)
5  GOOD MOJO Oct22 Sep13 Aug09 Jul06 Jun12 (forster grant )ORTIZ L 122 1.80 33% 2.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of CASTINETTE DANCER by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
6  MORE THAN PRADA Jun26 May10       (spicer jame)POSTON K 115 30.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of MAGGI O'PRADO by PADDY O'PRADO)
SCR  DON'T GHOST ME Oct09 Sep11 Aug01 Jul12 Sep14 (fawkes david)ORTIZ JR 122 2.50    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SKYLUCK by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
8  CLASSIC ROCK Aug13         (azpurua e)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of A BIT OF PRESSURE by HIGH YIELD)
9  GAME DAY Sep27 Jan17 Nov01     (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 122 15.00 14% 6.10    
  (by GAME WINNER out of CURRY CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
10  D BIGALOW Sep27 Feb08 Jan18 Dec19 Oct18 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 30% 2.30    
  (by BAYERN out of CAGED MISTRESS by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
 
CD-6   11/07/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIMOTHY         (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 8% 11.50    
  (by YAUPON out of DANCE FOR DADDY by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  MIDNIGHT ROCKET Oct04         (mott i)ORTIZ L 119 3.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of MIDNIGHT GIRL by DROSSELMEYER)
3  U JHEREMY         (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by GIFT BOX out of ADDAE DO JAGUARETE by CRIMSON TIDE)
4  ELEOS Oct11 Sep27 Sep13 Sep01 Aug07 (munoz carlos)TREJOS JOSEPH 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of WAVERLY PLACE by AWESOME AGAIN)
5  GENTLEMAN JIM Oct11         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of TO DREAM ABOUT by MONARCHOS)
6  MAGIC BREW         (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of BOBBY'S BABE by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  ROMAN ROGUE         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of MAGIC APPOINTMENT by GRAND APPOINTMENT)
8  INTO THE BEAST Oct16 Sep12       (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 2.00 66% 0.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of WHOA NELLIE by ORB)
 
CD-7   11/07/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VIRGIN COLADA Aug31 Jul05 Apr27 Nov01 Oct06 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
2  CLIFFS Aug31 Aug03 Jul03 May17   (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 45% 1.20    
3  TICKIN TIME BLONDE Oct08 Sep10 Aug31 Aug04 Jun25 (oliver victo)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GIRLS ROCK Sep27 Aug30 Jul12 Jun07 May09 (beckman whit)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
5  LES IS BEST Sep25 Aug30 Aug10 Jul14 Jul03 (foster er)TORRES A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  ROMANY ROAD Oct03 Mar04 Feb16 Jan31 Jan03 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 30.00    
7  BEE CAT Sep12 Aug30 Aug04 Jul03 May01 (arnold geor)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 15.00    
8  MODERN SOUND Oct03 Sep07 Jul12 Jun15 May17 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 8% 11.30    
9  SHEILA'S LION Oct10 Sep06 Jul19 Jun14 May10 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
10  EXCLUSIVE STAR Oct03 Apr11 Jan20 Nov30 Oct24 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
SCR  LA MARINERA Oct28 Oct06 Sep15 Jul04 Jun14 (fernandez )HERNANDEZ N 118 30.00    
SCR  DAWN AFTER DAWN Oct08 Sep15 Aug18 Jul14 Jun14 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/07/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIMICRY Oct16         (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALYSHEBA out of PICARDIA by STORMY ATLANTIC)
2  MESQUITE Oct04         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 4.50 10% 9.30    
  (by HUDDLE UP out of TAURASI by MINESHAFT)
3  ASTOUND Oct04         (harty eoin)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of ELAINE'S CAT by DISCREET CAT)
4  MOM'S SPAGHETTI Oct19 Sep12       (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of FOLLOW NO ONE by UNCLE MO)
5  RING CURL Sep12         (wismer gl)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
  (by CURLIN out of SOUTHERN RING by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  MISTER LANDRY Oct16 Sep26       (kinmon keith)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of BARDS MISSCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
7  WICKED GUN Sep28 Aug24 Jul19     (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of MAYBE WICKED by MIZZEN MAST)
8  LIBERTY VALANCE Oct04         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 38% 1.60    
  (by I WANT REVENGE out of JUST A TIZZY by CEE'S TIZZY)
9  APOLLO ELEVEN Oct10 Sep12       (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MOONLIGHTANDBEAUTY by CAPOTE)
10  SILVER SHOT         (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 119 5.00    
  (by ISLAND WHIRL out of SILVER DESTINY by SILVER BUCK)
SCR  GRAND SLAM SAM Oct16         (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 4.00    
  (by ANCIENT OAKS out of ME FEIN by KNIGHTS CHOICE)
12  CARSON STREET Sep28 Sep04       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 31% 2.30    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MIZ KELLA by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  SARTORIAL Sep28         (arnold george )SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
  (by CHARISMATIC out of ACCESSORY by ROYAL ACADEMY)
 
CD-9   11/07/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EVAN ON EARTH Oct16 Sep21 Aug01 Jun27 May18 (foley greg)TORRES A 120 15.00    
2  BEER RUN Oct16 Aug30 Jul16 Apr10 Aug31 (ward a)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
SCR  FLOODLITES Oct16 Aug30 Jul13 Dec18 Nov01 (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 6.00    
4  ITS BOURBON THIRTY Oct16 Sep10 Aug01 Jun08 Feb23 (o'dwyer jeremi)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 ★    
5  G T FIVE HUNDRED Oct09 Sep10 Aug03 Apr29 Apr04 (maker mic)LEPAROUX R 120 8.00    
6  INNOVATOR Sep06 Aug10 Jul13 Jun11 May03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.50    
7  ROWDY RIOT Sep21 Apr18 Mar07 Jan23 Dec21 (morse rand)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 12.00    
8  CURLIN'S GESTURE Sep17 Jun25 Jun12 May01 Apr10 (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00 6% 15.80    
9  AMOUDI BAY Oct16 Aug29 Jul20 Jul05   (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
10  TROUBLE TIME Sep27         (vaccarezza ni)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00 31% 2.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.