Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Monday - October 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/1)-(5/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
FE-2   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/3)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-3   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(7/6/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-4   WIN (7/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/1)-(7/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/6/1)-(7/6/1)-(7/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/6/1)-(5/4/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-5   WIN (5/4/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/2/7)-(5/4/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/2/7)-(5/4/2/7)-(5/4/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/2/7)-(1/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-6   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/3)-(4/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-7   WIN (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/3)-(4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/3)-(9/10/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-8   WIN (9/10/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/10/5/8)-(9/10/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/10/5/8)-(9/10/5/8)-(9/10/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   10/02/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERFECTION SAVER Aug28 Aug08 Apr25 Jan19 Nov16 (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 122 4.00 16% 5.30    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of STORMY PERFECTION by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  JIMMY IS A BREEZE Sep11 Aug28 Aug15 Jul24 Jul04 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 6.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of DYNA'S A BREEZE by DYNAFORMER)
3  VICTORIOUS TAPIT Aug28 Jun25 Dec10 Nov12   (simms )ALDERSON IAN 120 2.00 55% 0.80    
  (by TAPIT out of VICTORIOUS AMI by VICTORY GALLOP)
4  MAKAYLA Sep01 Aug17 Jul20 Jun22 Jun01 (siddo )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 5.00    
  (by AMIS GIZMO out of MAY PEN by WILKO)
5  BEAUTIFUL AS YOU Sep09 Aug12 Jul16     (carroll josie)BYNOE DESEAN 115 1.60    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
FE-2   10/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($8K) Purse ($21.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NGABE Sep25 Sep11 Aug22 Aug04 Jul08 (husbands anth)PINTO MELANIE 120 12.00    
SCR  AMAZON FORESTER Sep22 Sep02 Aug17 Jul30 Jul06 (krczmar zel)MARTI ALEXANDER 120 4.00    
3  MIGHTY PELE Sep25 Sep11 Aug04 Jul07 Nov19 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 120 6.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  MR. DE Sep22 Sep08 Aug18 Jul30 Jul08 (chircop steven)VIVES SOFIA 115 1.80    
5  OPEECHEE Sep25 Sep11 Aug22 Aug04 Jul07 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 5.00 36% 1.80    
6  KINZHAL Sep22 Aug04 Jul07 Jun09 Nov20 (mchugh sau)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 113 2.00    
 
FE-3   10/02/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEVIL IN HER HEART Sep18 Sep12 Aug24 Jul25 Jul10 (agostino roy)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 119 2.00 22% 3.60    
2  PENNIESFROMABOVE Sep18 Aug29 Aug15 Jul25 Jul04 (steer )ALDERSON IAN 122 8.00 14% 6.20    
3  MS SUEDOO Aug15 Jun27 Oct10 Sep06 Jul19 (robillard jo)CHEYNE A 122 12.00    
4  HONEY GIRL Sep18 Aug29 Aug15 Aug01 Jul11 (maynar)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 1.80 31% 2.20    
5  J M R BOLD VISION Sep14 Aug24 Aug08 Jul18 Jul04 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 120 4.50    
6  TICKLE HER TOE Sep18 Jun27 Jun18 Jun06 May19 (capi m)SINGH S 122 5.00    
 
FE-4   10/02/2023 4620ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNBRIDLED INFERNO Sep25 Sep05 Aug13 Aug01 Jul25 (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 120 10.00 24% 3.20    
2  WAR DOCTOR Sep18 Aug28 Jun13 May21 Dec06 (ch)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 8.00    
3  AWESOME BREAK May02 Apr15 Apr03 Mar23 Mar15 (cathca)ALDERSON IAN 122 6.00    
4  CHICAGO FREDDY Sep11 Aug08 Jul18 Jun18 May26 (golden)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 4.00    
5  MISS D'S PRIDE Sep11 Aug28 Aug08 Jul25 Jul18 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 120 8.00    
6  GIVE ME MY MONEY Sep18 Aug06 Jul07 Jun18 May21 (wills daniel)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 115 3.00 24% 3.10    
7  GOOD SOLDIER Sep21 Aug13 Jul09 Mar18 Feb25 (ceccato sharon)SALLES LEO 120 2.00 29% 2.50    
 
FE-5   10/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BETTABE SWIFT Sep19 Sep05 Jan11 Jan02 Dec06 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 10.00    
2  NATASHA'S BIZNIZ Sep12 Aug29 Aug15 Aug01 Jul04 (ceccato shar)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 4.50 11% 8.30    
3  MS. P'S BELLA Sep19 Aug21 Aug15 Jul25 Jul18 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 122 10.00    
4  FANCYSOUL Sep05 Aug13 Jul25 Jun26 Mar31 (davis m)VIVES SOFIA 119 3.00 16% 5.40    
5  SHELLY THE ROCKET Sep19 Sep05 Aug22 Aug07 Jul25 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 124 2.50 45% 1.20    
6  SHANGHAI KIMMY Sep12 Sep05 Aug22 Aug07 Jul25 (robillard josh)SALLES LEO 122 6.00    
7  PACENZA Sep19 Sep05 Aug21 Jun12 May30 (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 124 8.00 7% 14.00    
8  JUNGLE GODDESS Sep12 Sep05 Jul18 Jun27 Jun12 (ceccato sharon)CRAWFORD J 122 8.00    
 
FE-6   10/02/2023 5280ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($21.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOT'S VISION Sep23 Jun26 May23 May14 Dec02 (adamo anthony)VIVES SOFIA 115 2.00 37% 1.70    
2  DOCTOR UPTOWN Sep12 Sep04 Aug22 Aug11 Jun13 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 5.00    
3  HALF LIT Sep19 Sep04 Aug21 Aug07 Jul24 (keen how)BUCHANAN Z 122 6.00 9% 10.40    
4  ONE PUNCH CHARLIE Sep05 Aug21 Jul24 Jul10 Jun27 (ag)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 15.00    
5  JACK THE CAT Sep23 Sep12 Aug03 Jul21 Jun29 (warner k)SALLES LEO 120 4.00 31% 2.30    
6  MAYITO Sep23 Sep12 Sep04 Aug21 Aug13 (loescher paula)JOHNSON KIRK 122 12.00    
7  SOCIETY JOE Sep18 Sep10 Aug29 Aug03 Dec02 (holder)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 3.00    
 
FE-7   10/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JARA Sep19 Aug08 Jul04 Jun06 Apr29 (davis m)VIVES SOFIA 117 2.50    
2  SNEAKY REBEL Sep19 Sep04 Aug15 Aug07 Jul16 (powell a)DAVID MICHAEL 120 12.00    
3  FRESH DREAMS Sep07 Aug08 Jul25 Jul11 Jun26 (cohen mi)BUCHANAN Z 122 10.00 8% 11.60    
4  CANT BEAT THE KATZ Sep04 Jul18 Jun18 Jun06 Apr12 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 3.00 35% 1.90    
5  MORE SAVVY Sep23 Aug29 Aug01 Jul25 Jul11 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 124 4.00    
6  KHOZZY VALINTINE Sep05 Jul25 Jul04 Jun10 May19 (mcpherson alex)JOHNSON KIRK 124 3.50 33% 2.00    
7  SOMEONE ELSE Aug29 Jul19 Jul04 Jun20 Jun12 (gittens devon)CRAWFORD J 120 8.00    
 
FE-8   10/02/2023 3300ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREEN GABLES Sep19 Sep04 Aug28 Aug15 Aug07 (capi m)RAMSAMMY E 124 20.00    
2  HASN'T HIT ME YET Sep19 Aug21 Aug08 Jul25 Jul04 (maynar)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 12.00    
3  FOREST B Sep19 Aug28 Aug22 Jul16 Jun06 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 122 12.00    
4  CRUMLIN BIRD Sep25 Sep19 Sep05 Aug21 Jul25 (fournier mark)MORENO OMAR 120 10.00    
5  FRERET Sep19 Sep07 Aug21 Jul11 Jun16 (keen how)BUCHANAN Z 122 10.00 12% 7.60    
6  SPARKLE SAMMY Sep19 Aug28 Aug03 Jul20 Jun15 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 122 6.00    
SCR  JILL Sep16 Sep07 Aug17 Jul20 Jul13 (chircop steven)VIVES SOFIA 119 3.00    
8  SNELL FLICKA Sep19 Sep05 Aug07 Jul18 Jul04 (bl)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 8.00 11% 7.90    
9  BRIENNE OF TARTH Sep19 Aug21 Jul31 Jul20 Jul10 (robillard julie)CRAWFORD J 124 5.00 24% 3.20    
10  MUSICAL RIDE Sep19 Aug28 Jul25 Jul11 Jun18 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 4.00 20% 4.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.