Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Monday - September 25, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/5)-(4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/5)-(2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-2   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/1)-(6/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-3   WIN (6/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/4)-(6/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/4)-(6/2/4)-(6/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/4)-(7/3/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-4   WIN (7/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/4)-(7/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/4)-(7/3/4)-(7/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/4)-(7/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-5   WIN (7/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/1)-(7/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/1)-(7/5/1)-(7/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/1)-(5/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-6   WIN (5/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/1)-(5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/1)-(2/5/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-7   WIN (2/5/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/9)-(2/5/6/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/5/9)-(2/5/6/9)-(2/5/6/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/5/9)-(3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-8   WIN (3/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/8)-(3/10/8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/8)-(3/10/8)-(3/10/8) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   09/25/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($21.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOBILIZER Sep12 Sep04 Aug21 Aug11 Jul24 (keen h)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 12.00    
2  STRONG ENDING Sep04 Aug01 Jul10 Jun18 Feb19 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 3.50 20% 4.00    
3  JACK BEANSTALK Sep12 Aug21 Jul16 Jun26 Jun18 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 4.00    
4  STRIKING MOON Sep12 Aug15 Aug04 Jul16 Jun27 (mandalfino pau)JOHNSON KIRK 122 2.00 26% 2.90    
5  CRAFTY CONQUEST Aug21 Aug01 Jul08 Jun13 May14 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.00 12% 7.10    
6  SUMMER RETREAT Aug09 Aug01 Jul16 Jul10 Jun18 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 6.00    
 
FE-2   09/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HALF TO RELOAD Sep11 Sep01 Aug18 Aug05 Jul14 (blake michael)PINTO MELANIE 120 8.00 20% 3.90    
2  BAIT N SWITCH Sep04 Aug25 Aug13 Jul22   (alders)ALDERSON IAN 120 3.50 54% 0.90    
SCR  VIDEO VIDA Aug29 Aug06 Jul21 Jul07 Jun18 (mcclac)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 119 2.00    
4  DON'T STOP DREAMIN Sep12 Aug22 Jul24 Jul07 May28 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 2.50    
5  VOYANT Sep18 Sep04 Aug22 Aug07 Jun27 (alderson anthony)RAMSAMMY E 122 5.00    
6  ARTIE'S ALL IN Sep18 Aug28 Aug01 Jul18 Jul11 (cret)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 8.00    
 
FE-3   09/25/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAYBO Aug15 Jul25 Jul07 Jun16 May26 (davis m)MAILHOT P 120 4.50    
2  NO MORE Sep11 Aug13 Jul31 Jul10 Jun26 (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 5.00 27% 2.70    
3  BROADWAY RUCKUS Sep11 Aug22 Aug07 Jul25 Jul11 (mandalfino pau)JOHNSON KIRK 122 3.00    
4  IRIE ISLAND MAN Sep05 Aug28 Aug08 Aug01 Jul18 (ch)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 12.00 9% 9.70    
5  WIN THE DRAW Sep11 Aug22 Jul25 Jul07 Jun16 (davis )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 119 6.00    
6  UNBRIDLED INFERNO Sep05 Aug13 Aug01 Jul25 Jul11 (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 122 4.00 42% 1.40    
SCR  AWESOME BREAK May02 Apr15 Apr03 Mar23 Mar15 (cathca)ALDERSON IAN 122 3.50    
 
FE-4   09/25/2023 4620ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEEDS OF GRANDEUR Aug29 Jul11 Jun26 Sep20 Aug22 (cathcart steven)MAILHOT P 124 3.00    
SCR  ROAD MAP Sep05 Aug15 Jul25 Jul11 May30 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 8.00    
3  CRUMLIN BIRD Sep19 Sep05 Aug21 Jul25 Jun27 (chudobiak ga)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 119 4.00 20% 4.00    
4  REIGN BY REIN Sep12 Sep05 Jul31 Jul18 Jun27 (ezra d)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 119 8.00 15% 5.50    
5  SAVVY'S SISTER Aug22 Jul25 Jul11 Jun13 Jun06 (loescher paula)JOHNSON KIRK 122 10.00    
6  SILENT BUT VIOLENT Sep14 Aug01 Jul11 Oct24 Oct04 (robillard jos)PINTO MELANIE 122 6.00    
7  AWILDAS TREASURE Sep12 Aug29 Aug13 Aug01 Jul18 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 122 2.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  KHOZZY VALINTINE Sep05 Jul25 Jul04 Jun10 May19 (mcpherson alex)JOHNSON KIRK 124 1.60    
 
FE-5   09/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUSTIN'S WAY Sep14 Aug22 Jul16 May28 May06 (fournier mark)MORENO OMAR 122 3.50 12% 7.50    
2  SEVEN IS A BREEZE Sep04 Aug13 Jul24 Jun18 Oct04 (simms )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 8.00    
3  MORNING THOUGHTS Sep04 Aug25 Aug13 Jul24 Jul11 (voyc)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 4.00    
SCR  EXECUTIVE GIANT Sep07 Aug18 Aug03 Jul06 Dec09 (burke nige)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 117 10.00    
5  VICTORY MARCH Aug08 Jul03 Jun16 May26 Apr21 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 3.00 21% 3.80    
6  ACTION POINT Aug22 Aug08 Jul24 Jul18 Jul11 (robillard josh)RAMSAMMY E 122 10.00    
7  WILBERFORCE Sep04 Aug21 Aug01 Jul18 Jul03 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 2.50 32% 2.10    
 
FE-6   09/25/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITTLE FIRE Sep12 Sep01 Aug10 Jul14 Jun29 (mayn)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 6.00 9% 9.70    
2  ORBITING THE SKY Sep05 Aug08 Jul11 Jun27 Mar07 (robillar)BUCHANAN Z 122 8.00 21% 3.70    
3  LOVE MY CHERYL Sep04 Aug22 Aug07 Jul25 Jul16 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 5.00    
4  EASY ACCESS Sep05 Aug15 Jul31 Jul25 Jul11 (keen howard)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 12.00    
5  J M R GEMMA Sep05 Aug22 Aug08 Jul25 Jul04 (simms )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 119 3.00 41% 1.40    
6  CEDAR VALLEY Sep14 Sep01 Jul20 Jul06 Jun16 (brooks cary)NICHOLLS KEVEH 122 4.00    
7  HALO STYLE Sep07 Aug10 Jul20 Jul06 Jun16 (dixon patrick)SALLES LEO 122 2.50    
 
FE-7   09/25/2023 4620ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOGO GABRIEL Sep04 Aug23 Jul25 Jul11 Jun21 (chudob)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 4.00    
2  BREACH OF TRUST Sep11 Aug22 Aug07 Jul24 Jul03 (goldenberg m)SINGH S 122 3.00 44% 1.30    
3  NGABE Sep11 Aug22 Aug04 Jul08 Jun16 (husbands anth)PINTO MELANIE 122 15.00    
4  GOOD SKIP INDEED Sep08 Aug04 Jul14     (loescher paula)JOHNSON KIRK 120 20.00    
5  ASHWICKEN Sep04 Aug08 Jul24 Jul04 Jun12 (chudob)ALDERSON IAN 119 2.00 31% 2.30    
6  LADY OF THE FORT Sep11 Aug28 Aug13 Jul31 Jul25 (cathcart steven)MAILHOT P 119 6.00 ★    
7  AMEN TO THAT Sep11 Aug15 Jul25 Jul03 May23 (humber jo)SEECHARAN A 118 20.00    
8  MIGHTY PELE Sep11 Aug04 Jul07 Nov19 Oct28 (powell a)DAVID MICHAEL 122 15.00    
9  PRINCE FOR A DAY Aug22 Jul25 Jul18 Jun18 Jun13 (humber josep)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
FE-8   09/25/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUSTA GROOVE Sep11 Aug07 Jul25 Jun18 Jun03 (agostino roy)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 115 8.00    
  (by ARPISTA out of SYDNEY'S SPIRIT by GIANT GIZMO)
2  ONCEUPONASERENADE         (rabstein claudia )MAILHOT P 120 20.00    
  (by SEATTLE SERENADE out of ENCHANTED TALE by OLD FORESTER)
3  EIN WAHRER SOLDAT Sep04 Aug29 Jul25 Jul03 Jun18 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 3.00 49% 1.00    
  (by SOLDAT out of JO JO JENNA by PURGE)
4  DIAMOND HEIST Sep04 Aug13 Jun18     (wiec)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 8.00    
  (by DANISH DYNAFORMER out of TALE OF HOUDINI by TALE OF EKATI)
SCR  BEYOND TALENTED Sep11 Aug29 Jul18 Jul03 Jun18 (robillard jo)CHEYNE A 120 3.50 26% 2.90    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of GABBYWITHA G by TRIPPI)
6  TONKA WAKAN Sep11         (steer )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 10.00    
  (by DYNAMIC SKY out of HIJIKI by GLOBALIZE)
SCR  AUTUMN'S SO FLASHY Sep04 Aug29 Aug07 Jul25 Jul11 (carter ang)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 117 4.50    
  (by OUTWORK out of FLASHY WAYS by BO JINSKY)
8  GET READY SET FIRE         (johnston t)ELLIS S 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RELOAD out of MON AMI AMY by ROY)
9  LE GRAND GARCON Sep02 Aug22 Aug07     (steer )ALDERSON IAN 122 20.00    
  (by CONQUEST CURLINATE out of GENTLE JAZZ by MALIBU MOON)
10  OPEECHEE Sep11 Aug22 Aug04 Jul07 Jun16 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 6.00 ★    
  (by COLD HARBOR out of MS. FORUM by OPEN FORUM)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.