Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Wednesday - August 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (2/8/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/3/4)-(2/8/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/3/4)-(2/8/3/4)-(2/8/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/3/4)-(8/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/8/3/4)-(8/1/5)-(3/4/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-2   WIN (8/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/5)-(8/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/5)-(8/1/5)-(8/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/5)-(3/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/1/5)-(3/4/2)-(6/1/5) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-3   WIN (3/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/2)-(3/4/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/4/2)-(3/4/1/2)-(3/4/1/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/4/2)-(6/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/2)-(6/1/5)-(7/4/3) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-4   WIN (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/5)-(6/1/5)-(6/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/5)-(7/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5)-(7/4/3)-(1/5/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-5   WIN (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/3)-(7/4/3)-(7/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/3)-(1/5/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/4/3)-(1/5/4)-(3/1/7) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-6   WIN (1/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/4)-(1/5/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/5/4)-(1/5/7/4)-(1/5/7/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/5/4)-(3/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
HAW-7   WIN (3/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/7)-(3/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/7)-(3/1/7)-(3/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   08/30/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVER BOY Aug17 Jul08 Jun15 Apr13 Mar16 (claire alexis)FELIX E 118 3.00    
2  VERRAZANOINTHESKY Aug13 Aug03 Jul23 May31 May11 (winebaugh chery)REYES FRANK 124 5.00 44% 1.30    
3  NOT VERY GENTLE Aug13 Jul26 Jul09 Jun21 May31 (haran john)GILES EMMANUEL 117 6.00 8% 11.60    
4  REMEMBER THE MAINE Aug23 Jun15 May28 Mar16 Feb17 (campbell j)WEATHERLY BAILEY 112 8.00 6% 16.40    
5  LOOK AWAY Aug15 Jul16 Jun25 May25 Mar26 (jones s)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 10.00    
6  POKER PLAY Aug07 Jul15 Jun19 Jun04 May22 (johnston la)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 3.50    
7  FLYING SAMURAI Jul19 Jun22 Jun04 Nov02 Sep29 (ryan a)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 8.00    
8  BLOOD MOON Aug16 Jul05 Jun11 Jun04 May12 (campbell joel)LEZCANO ABEL 122 4.50 16% 5.20    
 
HAW-2   08/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROGER MCQUEEN Aug02 Jul05 Jun04 Apr01 Mar15 (villa francisco)FELIX E 122 3.00 18% 4.60    
2  LUCKY SHOT Aug10 Jul26 Jul12 Jun04 May14 (poulos dee)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 6.00    
3  LORD DYLAN Nov20 Nov04 Oct02 Sep20 Aug16 (bahena fernando)REYES FRANK 122 15.00    
4  ROCKET HOTSHOT Aug09 Jul09 Jun04 May14 Apr27 (rodriguez )WEATHERLY BAILEY 112 8.00    
5  BEEASY Aug09 Jul04 Jun17 May25 Apr25 (zawitz joel)LEZCANO ABEL 122 12.00 11% 7.80    
SCR  PINBALLER Aug16 Aug02 Jul19 Jul06 Jun22 (poulos dee)GILES EMMANUEL 117 5.00    
SCR  TEA AFTER BALLET Aug23 Aug16 Aug09 Jul19 Jul06 (zawitz joel)ORTEGA O 122 20.00    
8  LAKE MILLS Jul26 Jul05 Jun15 Apr30 Apr13 (kirby j)EMIGH A 122 1.80 46% 1.20    
 
HAW-3   08/30/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($21K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MILLARD'S SMILE Aug13 Aug06 Jul19 Jun22 Jun04 (rodriguez ed)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 4.00 ★    
2  SLAVA UKRAINI Aug13 Jul30 Jul09 Jun18 Jun04 (zawitz joel)COLON H 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  GLOBAL EMPIRE Aug16 Jul30 Jul12 Jun29 Jun08 (spagnola ida)GILES EMMANUEL 117 2.50 55% 0.80    
4  ICE BLAST Aug23 Jul26 Jun22 Jun04 May21 (villa francisc)LEZCANO ABEL 122 5.00 18% 4.60    
5  COMING UP ACES Aug06 Jul23 Jun21 May14 Apr27 (miller patt)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 15.00    
6  T LAW Aug20 Jul30 May29 May15 Apr29 (kirby j)HERNANDEZ K 118 10.00    
7  G T FIVE HUNDRED Jul13 May28 May04 Apr16 Mar23 (mason ingrid)FELIX E 118 3.00    
8  SONO GRATO Aug15 Jul19 Jul04 Apr15 Mar31 (scalcione p)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 15.00    
 
HAW-4   08/30/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($15K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY Aug09 Jul19 Jun07 Nov27 Oct22 (block chris)EMIGH A 122 4.00 27% 2.70    
2  IZEONDEC Jul30 May18 Apr13 Feb24 Jan28 (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 122 4.50    
3  SHARP AZ NAILS Jul30 Jul16 Jun25 May28 Mar05 (winebaugh che)HERNANDEZ K 118 5.00    
SCR  CHAD'S FLASH Aug06 Jul13 Jun14 May28 Apr13 (rodriguez ed)CENTENO ALEXIS 118 8.00    
5  IMPULSIVENESS Jul08 Jun14 May11 Apr23 Mar25 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 3.00 10% 8.80    
6  LAWMAKER Aug09 Jul19 Jul05 Jun07 May15 (manley stev)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 3.50 31% 2.20    
7  LONESTAR CHROME Aug16 Jul12 Dec13 Dec01 Nov08 (castro isidro)REYES ANGEL 122 30.00    
8  WEST COAST CHROME Jun22 May20 May06 Apr22 Nov30 (castro isi)WEATHERLY BAILEY 112 30.00    
 
HAW-5   08/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALADINE Jul13 Jun15 May31 May14 Apr13 (poulos dee)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 12.00    
2  STAR NATION Aug20 Aug06 Jul20 Jun18 May28 (spagnola i)WEATHERLY BAILEY 108 8.00    
3  POWER ALLEY Jul30 Jul01 May03 Apr13 Mar24 (forster gr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  CORTESE Aug09 Jul20 Nov02 Oct02 Sep21 (hernandez armando)FELIX E 118 2.50 16% 5.30    
5  DASH TO THE CASH Aug09 Jul19 Jun07 May07 Apr16 (lindsay rick)EMIGH A 122 12.00    
SCR  MISTER CHARMING Aug13 Jul16 Jun22 Jun04 Apr13 (spagnola )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 20.00    
7  TWIRLING ROSES Aug09 Jul09 May31 May18 Apr30 (rodriguez ed)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 3.00 56% 0.80    
8  RICHIESONAROLL Aug09 Jun22 Feb26 Feb05 Jan22 (rodriguez jo)GILES EMMANUEL 113 4.00    
 
HAW-6   08/30/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIMPLE LOGIC Aug06 Jul16 Jun25 Jun04 Oct07 (block chris)EMIGH A 122 1.80 54% 0.80    
2  WICKED SUPRISE Aug13 Jul27 Jul05 Jun15 May21 (winebaugh cher)COLON H 122 12.00    
3  VITALE Aug06 Jul20 Jun21 May21 Apr15 (clay pat)FELIX E 122 6.00    
4  SON OF GRACE Aug09 Jul20 Jun25 Jun11 Jun04 (hughes w)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  DANCE SOME MO Jul30 Jun18 Jun04 Mar05 May30 (rosin coty )SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 3.50 20% 4.00    
6  ARMAVIR Aug10 Jul19 Jul12 May28 May18 (perez manny)REYES FRANK 118 20.00    
7  MCMONEY Aug06 Jul18 Jun18 May28 Apr21 (winebaugh che)HERNANDEZ K 118 4.50 ★    
8  BAKENEKO Jul16 Jun25 Jun11 May21 Apr20 (rodriguez)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 10.00    
SCR  AQUACAT Aug09 Jul05 Jun07 May21 Jan11 (rodriguez hugo)LEZCANO ABEL 122 15.00    
 
HAW-7   08/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY Aug13 Jul26 Jul09 Jun07 May18 (rodriguez ed)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 3.50 19% 4.30    
2  RISKY BOY Aug13 Aug03 Jul16 Jun25 Jun15 (shephard john)LEZCANO ABEL 122 8.00    
3  NYOMAN Aug06 Jul05 Jun18 May31 May09 (villa franc)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 4.50 35% 1.80    
SCR  Z U SOON Aug06 Jul26 Jun18 Jun04 May09 (winebaugh chery)REYES ANGEL 122 6.00    
5  BORN AGAIN GEORGE Aug13 Jul05 Jun08 May21 May11 (clay pat)FELIX E 122 5.00    
6  PARKER Aug26 May30 Mar19 Feb21 Jan22 (gonzalez lili)HERNANDEZ K 122 12.00    
7  WILDWOOD SECRET Aug06 Jul26 Jul05 May28 May04 (clay pat)GILES EMMANUEL 117 6.00 15% 5.80    
8  PERFECT WAGER Aug23 Aug16 Aug05 Jul15 Jun27 (witthauer john )REYES FRANK 122 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.