Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Lone Star Park
Sunday - April 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
LS-1   WIN (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/3)-(2/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/3)-(1/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2/3)-(1/5)-(1/7) 8 $0.50 $4.00 
LS-2   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/5)-(1/5/7)-(1/5/7) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/5)-(1/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(1/7)-(8/4/1/6) 16 $0.50 $8.00 
LS-3   WIN (1/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/7)-(1/7/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7)-(1/7/8/2)-(1/7/8/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/7)-(8/4/1/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/7)-(8/4/1/6)-(7/1/4/6) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
LS-4   WIN (8/4/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/1/6)-(8/4/1/6/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/4/1/6)-(8/4/1/6/3)-(8/4/1/6/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/4/1/6)-(7/1/4/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/4/1/6)-(7/1/4/6)-(8/3) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
LS-5   WIN (7/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/4/6)-(7/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/4/6)-(7/1/4/6)-(7/1/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/4/6)-(8/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/1/4/6)-(8/3)-(9/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
LS-6   WIN (8/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/3)-(8/3/1/7/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (8/3)-(8/3/1/7/2)-(8/3/1/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/3)-(9/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (8/3)-(9/8/6)-(4/3/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
LS-7   WIN (9/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/8/6)-(9/8/6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/8/6)-(9/8/6/3/5)-(9/8/6/3/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (9/8/6)-(4/3/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (9/8/6)-(4/3/8)-(8/5/3/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
LS-8   WIN (4/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/8)-(4/3/8/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/8)-(4/3/8/9/1)-(4/3/8/9/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/3/8)-(8/5/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
LS-9   WIN (8/5/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/3/6)-(8/5/3/6/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/5/3/6)-(8/5/3/6/1)-(8/5/3/6/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
LS-1   04/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHEER UP Mar19 Mar03 Feb03 Dec09 Nov19 (villa)MANRRIQUE JOSE 124 6.00    
2  POET LAUREATE Mar03 Feb11 Oct22 Sep30 Sep07 (davis sha)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 124 1.80 30% 2.40    
3  CRIMSON LADY Mar19 Feb25 Feb12 Jan13 Dec10 (brob)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 2.00 22% 3.50    
4  MISS DISTINCTIVE Feb24 Feb04 Jan01     (broberg karl)FUENTES A 124 4.50    
5  MRSG'S LIL DREAMER Mar10 Feb05 Jun28 Jun07 Apr27 (george wayn)HAMILTON WESTON 124 20.00    
SCR  RIOBELLA Jan27 Jan08 Nov21 Oct28 Oct05 (ashford)GONCALVES R 118 3.50 20% 4.00    
 
LS-2   04/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3 F PT- 3:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISSINGYOUCRAZY Apr01 Feb18 Jan27     (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 122 2.50 42% 1.40    
  (by BRADESTER out of WON PESO by VICTORY GALLOP)
2  DIVAESQUE         (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 122 10.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of LIFE BY R R by DOMESTIC DISPUTE)
3  SASSY FLYER         (payne dan)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 122 8.00    
  (by SKY FLIGHT out of SASSY SONDRA by OFFICER)
4  RUBY SOHO Feb26 Jan15 Dec16     (calhoun wil)WETHEY JR 122 12.00    
  (by RUN AWAY AND HIDE out of KATIE'S TEN by ROCK HARD TEN)
5  LIBBIES BABY Mar26         (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 2.00 34% 1.90    
  (by TALE OF EKATI out of LIBBIES MISSION by GLOBAL MISSION)
SCR  SKY ROCKER Mar10         (willis mi)TRIANA JR 122 10.00 ★    
  (by SKY KINGDOM out of SPECIAL ROCKSTAR by SPECIAL RATE)
7  THETEASERGOTLOOSE Apr01 Mar15 Feb09     (cravens ii)DIAZ RENE 122 5.00 ★    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of CANNONBALLCUPCAKE by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  POQUITO LADY         (cappellucci )FUENTES A 122 6.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of CARSON CITY BABE by CARSON CITY)
 
LS-3   04/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($33.5K) 3 ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  U. S. ARMY Mar04 Jan28 Nov22 Sep25 Sep07 (davi)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 2.00 58% 0.70    
2  STRAIGHT LUCK Feb19 Jan20 Jul17 Jun25 May20 (pish danny)HAMILTON WESTON 122 10.00 ★    
3  KLIMTOMANIAC Apr08 Mar12 Mar01 Jan13 Dec19 (govea cesar)DIEGO V 122 8.00    
4  CLAY'S BLACK OPAL Mar31 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28   (young scott)WETHEY JR 122 4.00    
5  AARON'S SPIRIT Mar12 Feb19 Dec16 Nov22 Nov05 (b)DE CRUZ 122 12.00    
6  FAST TRAFFIC Mar19 Feb07 Aug19     (ashford)GONCALVES R 122 20.00    
7  PERFECT PRANK Mar12 Feb19 Jan20 Nov05 Oct08 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 122 5.00 14% 6.20    
8  GUNFLASH Mar26 Feb04 Jan14 Dec17 Nov22 (broberg karl)FUENTES A 122 3.00 ★    
 
LS-4   04/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3 ALL PT- 3:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  G'S LAW Mar19 Feb24 Feb10 Jan20 Sep17 (west patri)ERAMIA E 122 8.00 10% 8.70    
2  G B'S TURBO Apr07         (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 122 15.00    
3  PROPERLY CONNECTED Mar11 Feb04 Jan20 Dec20 Dec01 (broberg karl)FUENTES A 122 3.50 ★    
4  FREEPORT Apr07 Mar12       (ashford ray)DIEGO V 122 3.00 15% 5.60    
5  DEVITO Mar19 Mar11 Feb26 Jan14 Jan06 (davidson bre)MORA GERARDO 122 20.00    
6  PIONEER TOWN Mar31 Sep22 Sep03 Jul31   (ashford)GONCALVES R 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  WAY TOO WINDY Apr02 Mar12 Feb18     (villa)MANRRIQUE JOSE 122 30.00    
8  PITALE Jul10         (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 122 2.00 48% 1.10    
9  LOOPY DUDE Apr02 Mar12 Feb18 Feb04 Jan06 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 5.00    
 
LS-5   04/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JACKMAN'S RIDE Mar31 Feb25 Feb05 Jan22 Nov05 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 122 3.50 10% 9.50    
2  SEIZE THE TREASURE Apr02 Mar11 Jan14 Dec01 Nov05 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 4.50    
3  FAR FROM FINAL Mar11 Feb10 Jan15 Nov23 Oct22 (young scott)WETHEY JR 122 8.00    
4  JR'S PACIFICO Mar19 Mar03 Feb11 Jan14 Nov04 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 12.00 9% 10.60    
5  HE'S A BOMB Mar22 Mar09 Feb26 Nov12 Oct28 (govea cesar)BARANDELA SOFIA 119 6.00    
6  STAN'S MIRACLE MAN Mar19 Mar11 Feb11 Jan15 Dec15 (broberg karl)FUENTES A 124 15.00 9% 10.60    
7  TAPISTAR Mar15         (calhoun william )MURRAY M 124 1.20 51% 1.00    
 
LS-6   04/16/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CECE WAVE Mar31 Feb15 Jan27 Dec20 Nov26 (duhon paul)HAMILTON WESTON 124 20.00 ★    
  (by TIDAL WAVE out of DONE DONE IT by JOE'S SON JOEY)
2  DIAMOND GRAND Mar25 Mar18 Feb18 Nov11   (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 3.50 ★    
  (by INCLUDE out of SURELY GRAND by GRAND SLAM)
3  CONCEAL May28         (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 118 2.50 27% 2.80    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TEMPTRESS by TAPIT)
4  MIZZ ALL AMERICAN Apr01 Mar03 Feb16 Jan20   (garza e)SANCHEZ M 124 30.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of ALL AMERICAN MIZ by GRAND SLAM)
5  MYLITTLEWISKEYGIRL Mar31 Feb26 Feb11 Jan16 Nov22 (cruz eduardo)DIAZ RENE 124 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of I AM IRON WOMAN by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
6  GIRL ON THE GO Mar31 Feb19       (davis shawn )ALVAREZ L 124 15.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of FIRST ROMANCE by DYNAFORMER)
7  GRACIE'S KITTEN Mar10 Oct05 Aug19 Jul17 Jul04 (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 118 4.50 ★    
  (by BIG BLUE KITTEN out of EVEN WITH ODDS by EVEN THE SCORE)
8  DEAR BEAU (IRE) Mar30 Feb24 Jan26 Dec30 Dec15 (crumley jev)BARANDELA SOFIA 119 3.00 52% 0.90    
  (by MEHMAS out of GRETA D'ARGENT (IRE) by GREAT COMMOTION)
9  CHARMING LEAH Mar26 Mar10 Feb17 Jan27   (jacks e)DIEGO V 118 20.00    
  (by LEA out of SPECIAL CHARM by DANSILI)
 
LS-7   04/16/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARVINS' WARRIOR Mar19 Feb20 Jan21 Jan07 Nov16 (gelner jayd)BARANDELA SOFIA 113 15.00    
2  ATTILA THE DUN Feb10 Dec30 Oct23     (c)DE CRUZ 118 10.00    
3  WINNY'SSPECIALSTAR Feb23 Feb09 Jan20 Nov07 Aug20 (swift a)BENAVIDES D 118 20.00 ★    
4  IMMA BLINGY LAD Apr02 Mar12 Feb24 Feb11 Jan27 (tuley rhond)OLIVEROS CHARLE 118 20.00    
5  PUNTO RAFFA VOLO Mar11 Feb11 Jan21 Jan07   (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 8.00 ★    
6  MORO'S BULL CREEK Mar24 Feb17 Feb03     (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 124 3.50 5% 18.20    
7  MORO EXPRESS Jul17 Jul08 Jun05     (crumley jevo)ALVAREZ L 118 15.00    
8  SAMSPLAYERSLOUNGE Mar19 Mar11 Feb20 Jan14 Nov25 (gelner ja)TRIANA JR 118 2.50 24% 3.10    
9  BARSINVIEW Mar31 Feb26 Feb11     (broberg karl)FUENTES A 118 3.00 48% 1.10    
SCR  SPARRA Mar19 Mar05 Jan28     (whitelaw mi)HAMILTON WESTON 118 8.00    
 
LS-8   04/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PICKINGUPSTRANGERS Apr07 Mar19 Feb25 Feb19 Feb04 (pish danny)WETHEY JR 124 5.00 ★    
2  JOAN'S JUNIOR Mar11 Feb10 Jan13 Dec03 Nov05 (villa)MANRRIQUE JOSE 124 20.00    
3  BIG STORY Mar18 Feb18 Jan20 Mar20   (cappellucci )FUENTES A 124 2.00 24% 3.10    
4  ONE MORE BABY Jan29 Jan07 Nov27 Oct12 Sep03 (asmussen ste)ALVAREZ L 124 2.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  LIBERTY SPIRIT Mar31 Mar17 Feb20 Feb04 Dec16 (horton linda)JUDE JOHN 124 10.00    
6  VICTOR VALENTINO Mar31 Feb25 Jan27 Jan06 Sep03 (padilla a)DIEGO V 124 20.00    
7  GIST Mar17 Jan15 Dec14 Dec08 Nov19 (davidson sarah )SANCHEZ M 124 30.00    
8  TEXAS PRADO Mar31 Mar04 Feb10 Jan21 Jan06 (pish danny)MORA GERARDO 124 4.00 19% 4.20    
9  GAMMA RAY Mar31 Feb10 Jan20 Dec07 Nov14 (eoff terry)BARANDELA SOFIA 119 12.00 ★    
 
LS-9   04/16/2023 4950ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLORS OF THE WIND Mar12 Dec07 Nov05 Sep30 Sep10 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 120 8.00 ★    
2  PRINCESS PAULINE Mar12 Feb11 Jan06 Sep05 Jul23 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 120 3.00    
3  QUINN ELLA Feb25 Feb12 Jan15 Jan06 Dec16 (govea cesar)BARANDELA SOFIA 115 10.00 9% 10.60    
4  MY BABYS GONE Apr01 Mar12 Feb20 Jan21 Nov12 (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 120 20.00    
5  SHE'SSKYSTHELIMIT Feb25 Jan15 Nov15 Oct13 Sep24 (scholl kevi)WETHEY JR 124 4.00 13% 7.00    
6  DISCREET SMILE Mar12 Feb18 Jan15 Jul17 Jun19 (jack)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 120 6.00 7% 14.10    
7  FEELING HAPPY Apr01 Feb03 Jan20 Oct29 Oct08 (davidson m )HAMILTON WESTON 124 20.00    
8  MISSION BELLE Feb25 Jan06 Dec22 Dec14 Nov25 (broberg karl)FUENTES A 122 3.50 50% 1.00    
9  TUDELA Mar25 Mar12 Feb18 Jan13 Jul08 (castellanos)OLIVEROS CHARLE 120 6.00    
10  LEARNING TO WIN Apr02 Feb25 Jan20 Aug26   (calhoun b)DIAZ RENE 124 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.