Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Thursday - January 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-3   WIN (6) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (6)-(6/2) 1 $1.00 $1.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6)-(7/2/3/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6)-(7/2/3/4)-(1/6/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
TUP-4   WIN (7/2/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/3/4)-(7/2/3/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/2/3/4)-(7/2/3/4/1)-(7/2/3/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/2/3/4)-(1/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3/4)-(1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TUP-5   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5/3/4)-(1/6/5/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5)-(1/6/5)-(2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
TUP-6   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5/8)-(1/6/5/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/6/5)-(2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5)-(2/4)-(4/2/9/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
TUP-7   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4/11/12/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (2/4)-(2/4/11/12/6)-(2/4/11/12/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4)-(4/2/9/10) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
TUP-8   WIN (4/2/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/9/10)-(4/2/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/9/10)-(4/2/9/10)-(4/2/9/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-3   01/19/2023 4950ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($23.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  IN THE RED Dec15 Sep07 Jul30 Jul03 Jun11 (pierce michael )VERGARA P 122 3.50 ★    
2  YES PLEASE Jan09 Dec15 Nov11 Nov04 Jun27 (o'brien d)VALENZUELA A 122 8.00 ★    
SCR  LOOKIN SO LUCKY Aug14 Jul30 Jul10 Jun19 Jun11 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 3.00 22% 3.50    
4  MALIBU MARIE Dec03 Sep04 Aug20 Apr08 Mar18 (capestro pa)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 2.50    
SCR  FLYING TO THE LINE Dec17 Nov25 Sep01 Jul22 May28 (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 6.00 ★    
6  TIME FOR GOLD Jan02 Dec14 Aug19 Jul03 Jun12 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 122 5.00 42% 1.40    
7  MI REYNA Oct29 Oct08 Aug27 Aug12 Jul22 (palma milto)MARTI ALEXANDER 122 10.00    
 
TUP-4   01/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($12K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INSTIGATE Dec22 Nov28 Oct15 Sep09 Aug14 (barraza so)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 6.00 ★    
2  MISCHIEVOUSHOLIDAY Jan02 Dec22 Nov25 Sep05 Aug20 (delp core)VALENZUELA A 124 2.50 20% 3.90    
3  FABSTRACTION Jan02 Nov19 Nov08 Sep17   (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 124 3.50 15% 5.80    
4  SILVER KING BAIN Jan10 Dec20 Dec08 Sep18 Sep02 (mccartney j)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.00 10% 9.00    
SCR  SAYERS Dec18 Dec09 Nov24 Oct30 Oct09 (silva l)SANCHEZ OBED 124 5.00    
6  DOUBLE PERFECTION         (kereluk edward)MAWING A 124 10.00    
7  WEARENOTBADPEOPLE Dec22 Nov14 Sep03 Mar07 Feb05 (howey quinn)VERGARA P 124 4.50 30% 2.40    
 
TUP-5   01/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($12.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUMPY CUP Jan05 Dec17 Nov30     (villamar ca)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 4.50 64% 0.60    
2  MAJESTIC STREET Dec13 Nov19 Sep19 Aug24 Aug03 (brown jared)CRUZ M 122 6.00    
3  GRAVES MILL ROAD Dec13 Nov28 Nov04 Aug17 Jul01 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 122 2.00 ★    
4  AWESOME BID Nov07 Oct12 Aug08 Jul19 May25 (belvoir vann)VALDES ALEXIS 122 5.00 ★    
5  JUST PICK IT UP Jan03 Dec19 Nov29 Nov04   (metz jeffrey)LOPEZ KARLO 124 4.00 6% 15.90    
6  DEVILS WORKSHOP Jan02 Nov29 Sep18 Aug14 Jul23 (koler steve)MAWING A 122 3.50 9% 9.60    
7  NORTHRNDANCRSGHOST Dec20         (perkinson c)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 12.00    
 
TUP-6   01/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($10K) Purse ($21.9K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  XTREME MAYHEM Jan03 Nov29 Nov14 Sep14 Aug28 (martinez esteban)ZUNINO L 122 5.00 14% 6.30    
2  FULL VISION Dec20 Nov09 Sep12 Aug20 Jun27 (owens kory)LOPEZ KARLO 122 8.00    
SCR  UNBROKEN STAR Jan03 Dec19 Dec10 Nov07 Jul28 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 6.00 49% 1.00    
4  LOLLY EXPRESS Dec22 Dec14 Nov26 Nov07 Sep17 (bullene mic)CONNING CRYSTAL 124 8.00    
5  MOSQUITO FLEET Dec20 Nov21 Oct08 Sep17 Sep02 (pierce mi)VALENZUELA A 124 4.00 5% 18.00    
6  YOU SPLIT TENS Dec21 Nov29 Nov08 Sep07 Aug20 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 3.00 8% 12.30    
7  FORGOTTEN VOWS Jan09 Dec14 Dec10 Nov08 Aug26 (dennis )BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 122 12.00    
8  TWO GUNS Nov16 Oct03 Sep23 Aug14 Jul23 (schnell don)CORBETT W 122 3.50 ★    
 
TUP-7   01/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MULLIGAN Dec26 Sep10 Aug22 Aug01 Jun25 (villamar can)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 15.00    
2  REIGN OF FIRE Jan03 Dec26 Nov14 Nov05 Sep03 (silva pabl)LEON A 124 3.00 66% 0.50    
3  SHESAHEATWAVE Dec26 Sep03 Jun25 May28 May13 (ferguson curt)ZUNINO L 124 8.00    
4  SONGOFTHEDESERT Dec26 Nov14 Sep10 Aug22 Aug08 (reyes norma)GARCIA ENRIQUE 124 12.00 11% 8.50    
5  NO KITTEN Dec17 Nov14 Oct09 Sep14 Aug22 (denny travi)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 12.00    
6  APPOINTED STAR Dec17 Nov19 Nov07 Sep11 Aug20 (potts ashl)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 5.00 ★    
7  LE TUB Jan02 Dec17 Aug27 Aug06 Jul29 (toye joe)ANAYA V 124 8.00    
8  WAY TO FIRE Jan02 Dec21 Dec01 Nov21 Nov12 (silva jose )WILLIAMS AJHARI 124 4.00    
SCR  WRIGHT WINGED Jan02 Dec17 Nov14 Sep10 Aug08 (gutierrez jua)VALDES ALEXIS 124 20.00    
10  IZANAMI Jan11 Dec21 Nov05 Sep19 Sep10 (soto anto)KELLENBERGER KODY 124 20.00    
11  MADISON'S QUARTERS Nov28 Nov05 Sep19 Sep03 Aug01 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 124 6.00 ★    
12  BABE'S GOT APPEAL Dec17 Nov14 Jul08 Jun12 May14 (crotts ja)VALENZUELA A 124 15.00 ★    
 
TUP-8   01/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($10K) Purse ($21.9K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLUB MESQUITE Dec19 Dec01 Nov15 Nov04 Sep15 (williams matt)LOPEZ KARLO 122 12.00    
2  THIRTY SECONDS OUT Nov28 Nov12 Aug31 Aug11 Jul04 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 3.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  MARICOPA COUNTY Dec13 May06 Apr21 Feb18 Feb02 (grissom roberta)CORBETT W 122 20.00 ★    
4  PINTXOS Dec20 Aug25 Aug13 Jul16 Jun18 (woolley be)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 122 4.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  MOVE OVER (GB) Dec20 Dec08 Nov21 Sep09 Aug07 (silva pab)SANCHEZ OBED 122 5.00    
6  THICK HAZE Jan05 Nov28 Nov12 Sep10 Sep01 (martinez esteba)VERGARA P 124 6.00    
7  ATOMIC CANDY Dec26 Nov21 Nov05 Sep14 Sep07 (rarick wade)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 10.00    
SCR  POLITICAL RIOT Jan02 Dec21 Dec01 Oct04 Sep27 (si)DA FAUSTO 124 8.00    
9  FORT LANGLEY Dec20 Nov16 Oct15 Sep25 Sep10 (leaney patricia)CRUZ M 122 4.50 6% 16.10    
10  BLUE SKYE JADE Jan02 Dec22 Dec10 Nov19 Nov04 (william)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NEW EAGLE Dec11 Nov24 Nov13 Oct21 Oct10 (metz jeffrey)MAWING A 122 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.