Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - August 19, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/19/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAN'T HIDE FROM ME Jul15 Jun11 May16 Apr24 Mar25 (stinson)DE CRUZ 123 6.00 12% 7.30    
2  HANNITY Jun24 Jun04       (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 5.00    
3  RUDIGER         (sanner e)COURT K 123 12.00 11% 8.30    
4  MOLIERE Jul15 Mar27 Feb26 Jan27   (vanden be)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 8.00    
5  TIZ LIGHT THE WAY Jul15 Jun08 May15 Mar06 Feb14 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 2.50 19% 4.20    
6  MARKITOFF Jul15 May16 May04 Apr24 Mar05 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 123 1.80 ★    
7  KENTUCKY COOL Aug05 Jul14 Jun22 Jun10 May24 (fernandez edwa)REYES R 123 20.00    
8  JAMMERS JUSTICE Jul06 Jun03 May03 Apr15   (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 123 15.00    
SCR  GO FOR SHERRIE Jul13 Jun21 May30 May10 Apr08 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 1.60 34% 2.00    
 
ELP-2   08/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 4:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DESTINE TO RACE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 21% 3.80    
2  NEED SOME MONEY Jul31         (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 ★    
3  MARSANNE Aug07 Jul01       (ennis joh)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
4  SOLO ALBUM         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 ★    
5  RUM RUNNER READY Jul15 Jun10       (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 ★    
6  FASHION IDOL Jul22         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 1.80 53% 0.90    
 
ELP-3   08/19/2022 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORWARD CURVE Jun24 May27       (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 2.50 43% 1.30    
2  CHISHOLM TRAIL Jul09 May27 Apr03 Mar11 Feb18 (hawley wesley)GRAHAM J 123 8.00    
3  MY BROTHER CAM Jul23 May26 May07 Jan07   (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 4.00 5% 19.00    
4  EYE OF THE CAT Jun25 May31       (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 123 5.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  IRONMAN RICHIE Jun25 Jun03 May08 Apr17 Apr03 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
7  EL AHIJADO Jul09 Jun09 May22 Apr21 Apr02 (guerrero sal)DIAZ RENE 118 8.00 ★    
SCR  T J MUNNINGS Jul05 Jun02 Mar18 Mar04 Feb18 (bogle fergus)BEJARANO R 123 20.00    
9  TIZ TACT TOE Jun20 May13 Mar18     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 12.00 ★    
SCR  BEL ARIA Jul30 Jul23 Jun22 Jun03 May12 (parker donald)BECKMAN ALICE 108 15.00    
SCR  LANSDOWNE (GB) Jul22 Jun30 May30 May08 Apr10 (lukas wayne)COURT K null      
 
ELP-4   08/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INDIGO MISS Jun09 Apr08 Feb19     (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 52% 0.90    
2  RESPECTFUL         (brisset rodol)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.00 21% 3.80    
3  AMARYLLIS KISS Jul30 Jul02       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 1.80 7% 13.30    
4  CANDY ISLAND Jul30 Jul10       (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 ★    
5  TWILIGHT DREAMS Jul01         (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
6  SURE SHOT ANNIE Apr30 Apr09       (thurman rhonda)EMIGH A 124 30.00 ★    
 
ELP-5   08/19/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 5:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONEY RUN         (asmussen m)DIAZ RENE 114 4.50 12% 7.10    
2  CUORE SACRO         (lynch bria)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
3  MEANT TO BE LUCKY         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
4  MO STASH         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 ★    
5  THE BOOKKEEPER Jul30         (divito james)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
6  SAILOR'S CHANCE Jul16 Jun23       (ennis john)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 ★    
7  PREMIUM         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00    
SCR  COACHES MEETING Jul16         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 4.00 65% 0.50    
9  FAST TRAFFIC         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
10  ICONICUS         (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 20.00    
SCR  KING SHAMAN         (navarrete)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
12  HUNTER'S DRIVE         (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 114 15.00    
SCR  MO SNOW         (matejka p)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
SCR  MENDEAVOUR         (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 10.00    
 
ELP-6   08/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MURGATROYD Jul24 Jun22 May29 May03 Feb12 (maci)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 15.00    
2  JOY ENAMORADA Jul29 Jun25 Jun10 May14 Apr30 (duvall e)COURT K 118 6.00 13% 6.80    
3  SENORITA AURORA Jul29 Jun25 May28 May07 Apr17 (thurman rhonda)EMIGH A 122 10.00 ★    
4  BEVERLY'S CHARGE Jun30 Jun08 May12 Mar19 Feb24 (habeeb )DE CRUZ 118 4.00 16% 5.40    
5  SWEET CONFUSION Jul24 Jul03 Jun09 May21 Mar19 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 1.20 37% 1.70    
6  CANT BE TOUCHED Mar11 Jan22       (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 ★    
 
ELP-7   08/19/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY MY MUNNY Jul31 Jul17 Jul03 Jun17 Jun09 (stuart shea)EMIGH A 122 5.00 ★    
2  THE CLUB Aug06 Jul17 Jun12 Apr21   (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
3  SOCIAL MANDATE Jul30 May28 May15 Apr10 Jan08 (hancock a)COURT K 118 15.00    
4  BITTY BOSS Jun22 May14 Apr03 Feb13 Jan02 (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50 36% 1.80    
5  QUICK MUNNY Jul16 May05 Apr15 Feb24 Jan28 (barkley jason)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 32% 2.20    
6  BROADWAY BLAZE Jul11 Jun18 May21     (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00    
7  STELLA TERESA Jul16 Jun22 Apr20 Feb26   (wojczynski ju)LEBRON VICTOR 118 6.00 8% 12.10    
8  STORM CHARGING Aug04 Jul07       (fernandez edwa)REYES R 122 20.00    
9  HOPE AND DREAMS Jul01 May19       (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 ★    
 
ELP-8   08/19/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BICKELL Jul29 Jun17 Jan08     (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
2  ARTIE AND JESSIE Jul31 Jul08       (horvath frank )ELLIOTT JANE 124 50.00    
3  MR. MARIAH Jul31 Jul15       (pittman bon)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
4  GET US ONE Jul08 May25 Apr24 Apr02   (meah m)LEZCANO ABEL 118 12.00 5% 17.90    
5  BEOCCA         (minnock g)BEJARANO R 124 5.00 ★    
6  TRICOLOUR Jun24 Jun08 Apr30 Mar23 Feb21 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
7  GO VIRTUAL Jul22 Jun19 Jun05 May19 Apr20 (gonzale)DE CRUZ 118 8.00 ★    
8  LARK Jun18 Jun11 May27 May20 May06 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 3.50 9% 10.10    
9  COMMAND CENTRAL Jul29 Jun24 Mar12 Feb23 Jan16 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 3.00 62% 0.60    
10  MR. CUNNINGHAM Jul08 Mar03 Feb10 Jan22   (meredith charle)HOLMES GAGE 111 15.00    
11  FLAGSTONE Jul23 Jun29       (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
12  KEEP ON Jul31 Jul08 May13 Apr30   (williamson b)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00    
SCR  BUCKEYE JIMMY Jun22         (beckman whitw)COHEN DAVID 124 15.00    
SCR  NO LIMITATION Jul20 Jul10 May21     (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.