Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 06, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/06/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUPER WONDER GIRL Jun23 May27 May03 Apr10 Mar06 (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 2.00 23% 3.40    
2  LILY'S WOOFY Jun24 Jun11 Apr30     (catala)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 112 1.40 20% 4.00    
3  SHAPE OF YOU Jun30 May31 May10 Apr27 Mar11 (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 122 3.00 34% 2.00    
4  LA TOURISTA Jul22 Jun22 Jun05 May22 May12 (vasquez german )LANERIE J 122 6.00 ★    
5  CATCHUSIFYOUCAN Jul24 Jun30 Jun11 May22 Mar03 (casse nor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 ★    
 
ELP-2   08/06/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GHOST BAYOU Jul08         (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
2  TIME FOR CUPID         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.50 56% 0.80    
3  TWENTYTWENTY HOAX Jul16 Jul01 Jun11 May26 May14 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 4.50 ★    
4  LIVE WIRE         (maker j)DIAZ RENE 114 10.00    
5  BLAMETHECHAMPAGNE Jul02 May06 Apr08 Feb12 Jan22 (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
6  SUPER WEST         (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
SCR  BOOGIE BABY         (drury thoma)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 12.00    
8  MAHOMEBRED Jul16 Jul01 Jun11     (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
SCR  LADY PELE Jul08 Jun18 Apr22     (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 8% 12.00    
SCR  RAMADHAAN (IRE) Feb16         (meah m)HOLMES GAGE 112 20.00    
11  ICY RIVER Jun01 May10 Apr22     (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
SCR  CAUSE CELEBRE Jul16         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 ★    
13  SOMEBODY LOVES ME Jul10 May05 Apr14 Mar13   (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 11% 8.50    
 
ELP-3   08/06/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FACE VALUE         (walsh bre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
SCR  LAST COOKIE         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
SCR  HOW DID HE DO THAT Jun23         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00    
3  RETAINED Jul08         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 58% 0.70    
4  PACE         (simms jr)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
5  LEVEL UP         (nihei michell)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
6  COLLECTORATE Jul08         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
7  WAVE AFTER WAVE         (catalano m)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
8  ORBI ONE         (lukas wayne)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
9  SUNDANCE         (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00 5% 18.10    
10  JACE'S ROAD         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 16% 5.40    
11  WEBSLINGER         (casse mark)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 ★    
12  HAPPY IS A CHOICE         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
SCR  BLAMETHEGOODTIMES         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 10.00 ★    
SCR  BEN DREAMING         (divito james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
 
ELP-4   08/06/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($61K) 3 F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STREET TAPPER Jun28 May14       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 15.00    
2  AALIYAH EZRI Jul08 May27 Apr13     (divito p)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00    
3  STEPPER Jul10 May07 Apr14 Mar05   (drury jr)LANERIE J 120 5.00    
4  CARIBBEAN NIGHT Jul16 May18 Apr29     (drury thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00 ★    
5  KHULUQ Jul01 Apr16 Mar18 Jan14   (brown c)GRAHAM J 120 6.00    
6  ARROBATIC May14 Apr10 Feb06     (brown cha)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 3.50 29% 2.50    
7  CODE FOR SUCCESS Jun23 May28       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 15.00 ★    
8  THE CLUB Jul17 Jun12 Apr21     (oliver vic)MICHEL MICKAELLE 120 12.00    
9  QUEROBIN DOURADA Jul16 Jun11 Apr22 Mar26 Feb16 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
SCR  DIVINE HOPE Jul23 Jul03 Jun18 May26   (taylor brent)MILLER CHASE 120 30.00    
11  IMPLOSION         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
12  GOLDEN SIGHTS Jul01         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00 47% 1.10    
SCR  CHARLEE O Jun04 May07       (waltz bri)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
SCR  ZING Jul01 Jun11 May09     (catalano way)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 15.00    
SCR  LADY ARSINOE Jul16 Jun23 May09 Apr08 Mar10 (amoss m)DIAZ RENE 115 12.00    
SCR  FULL FOCUS Jan01         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.50 ★    
 
ELP-5   08/06/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JET SETTING         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.50 8% 12.10    
2  LADY SQUARED Jul15 Jun17       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
3  BEST SELLER Jul04         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
4  UNIFIED DECISION Jun25         (wilkes ia)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
5  AUDACIOUSNESS Jul04         (stall albe)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.50 52% 0.90    
SCR  LADY EVA Jul09         (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
7  BIG SIS NIC         (mcpeek kenn)PETERSON FERRIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  MISS ADDIE LYNN Jul15 Jun23       (lukas w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
9  SHEZA SHINING STAR Jul04 Jun03       (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 4.00 11% 8.50    
10  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Jul04 May20 Apr29     (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 6% 14.70    
 
ELP-6   08/06/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISK MANAGER Jul15 May21 Apr23 Mar12 Jan30 (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 2.50 32% 2.20    
2  FAN CLUB Jun18 May07 Apr15 Mar18 Jan29 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00    
3  CELERITY Jul16 Jun17 May03 Apr22 Apr02 (cundiff way)HERRFORTH ERICA 112 30.00    
4  HAWK OF WAR Jul15 Jun20 May13 Apr21 Mar26 (maker micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 126 2.00 37% 1.70    
5  HOZIER Jul15 Jun17 May03 Apr16   (brisset rodolphe)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
6  GREY STREAK Jun03 Mar02       (arnold ge)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
7  LIGHT FURY Jan29         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 6% 16.00    
8  JIMMY DAN Jul18 May20 Apr22 Mar10 Jan21 (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
9  LEBLON Jul01 Jun02 Apr27 Mar26 Feb19 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00 ★    
SCR  BLUE KENTUCKY Jul17 Jun19 May29 Apr14 Mar09 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 ★    
 
ELP-7   08/06/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INJUNCTION Jul04 Jun05 May07 Apr16 Mar05 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 123 12.00    
2  TITLE READY Jul02 May06 Apr02 Jan29   (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 121 3.00    
SCR  TUT'S REVENGE Jul24 Jun22 May25 Apr30 Mar11 (stuart she)CORRALES GERARDO 125 6.00 21% 3.70    
SCR  SOUNION Jul15 Jun05 Mar18 Feb03   (cano juan )MURRILL MITCHELL 121 25.00    
5  WEST WILL POWER         (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00 14% 6.10    
6  NIGHT OPS Jan09         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 5.00 ★    
7  LAST SAMURAI Jul02 Apr23 Apr03 Feb12   (lukas wayne)COURT K 125 4.00 ★    
SCR  BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON Jul01 Jun05 Mar07 Feb01   (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 20.00    
9  MAILMAN MONEY Jun25         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00    
SCR  HELIUM Jul09 May22 May01     (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 6.00 40% 1.50    
 
ELP-8   08/06/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REWARD NIGHT Jul09         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 6.00 20% 4.00    
2  WAKE SURF May18 Mar12 Jan22     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
3  ROCHAMBEAU Jun22 Apr08       (devaux ch)HERNANDEZ J 123 5.00 ★    
SCR  PURPLE DREAM Jun20 May14       (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  ROUGHIN THE CITY Jun30 Jun11 Apr19 Mar17 Jan07 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 123 30.00    
SCR  ENDLESS SUNSET Jul09 Jun26 Jun12 May27 May12 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 118 25.00    
7  RED HORNET May28 May06 Apr08     (meah m)MORALES EDGAR 123 4.00    
8  GREATHEART Jul02 May12 Apr22 Mar25 Mar04 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 12.00    
9  FINDING FREEDOM         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 15.00 8% 11.70    
10  DEEP STATE Jul09 May21 Apr03 Mar09 Feb06 (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 123 8.00    
11  CLOUDY Jun20         (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 5.00 47% 1.10    
12  COOL RAGS Apr24 Apr13 Mar17 Feb23 Jan15 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.