Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - August 11, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/7/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/3/4)-(2/7/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/3/4)-(2/7/3/4)-(2/7/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/3/4)-(3/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/3/4)-(3/2/6)-(10/1/3/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(10/1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(10/1/3/4)-(10/11/6/12/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-3   WIN (10/1/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/1/3/4)-(10/1/2/3/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/1/3/4)-(10/1/2/3/4)-(10/1/2/3/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/1/3/4)-(10/11/6/12/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/1/3/4)-(10/11/6/12/1)-(9/3/2/6/10) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-4   WIN (10/11/6/12/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/11/6/12/1)-(10/11/6/12/9/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (10/11/6/12/1)-(10/11/6/12/9/1)-(10/11/6/12/9/1) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (10/11/6/12/1)-(9/3/2/6/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (10/11/6/12/1)-(9/3/2/6/10)-(3/7/5/6) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-5   WIN (9/3/2/6/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/3/2/6/10)-(9/3/2/6/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/3/2/6/10)-(9/3/2/6/10)-(9/3/2/6/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/3/2/6/10)-(3/7/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/3/2/6/10)-(3/7/5/6)-(7/11/13/10/5) 100 $0.50 $300 
ELP-6   WIN (3/7/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/5/6)-(3/7/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/5/6)-(3/7/5/6)-(3/7/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/5/6)-(7/11/13/10/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/7/5/6)-(7/11/13/10/5)-(4/7/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-7   WIN (7/11/13/10/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/11/13/10/5)-(7/11/13/10/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/11/13/10/5)-(7/11/13/10/5)-(7/11/13/10/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/11/13/10/5)-(4/7/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/11/13/10/5)-(4/7/1)-(11/3/2/6/1) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
ELP-8   WIN (4/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/1)-(4/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/1)-(4/7/1)-(4/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/1)-(11/3/2/6/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (11/3/2/6/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/3/2/6/1)-(11/3/2/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/3/2/6/1)-(11/3/2/6/1)-(11/3/2/6/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($27.5K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED HOT JEANIE Jun22 May22 Mar13 Feb23 Dec18 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50    
2  COASTLINE HOTTIE Jun22 Mar31 Mar06 Feb13 Jan27 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 46% 1.20    
3  MARIPOSA DE PISTA Jul14 Apr17 Mar29 Mar13 Feb21 (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 117 12.00 11% 8.30    
4  ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY Jul21 Jun26 Jun13 Apr28 Mar07 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  STEALTHESPOTLIGHT Jul05 Jun20 May30 May01 Jul06 (williams matt)JUAREZ NIK 121 6.00    
6  MABEE LUCKYNWILD Jul06 Oct10 Aug08 Jul18 Jun18 (parker don)ANDERSON MCKENNA 121 10.00    
7  TRAVAILLE Jul14 Jun04 Mar07 Aug18 Jul14 (catalano wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 4.00 12% 7.30    
8  ITSABLINGTHING Jul26 Jun22 May15 Mar29 Mar22 (barret)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 121 8.00    
 
ELP-2   08/11/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($108K) 3 F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MULTIPLICATION Jun14 Mar29 Feb07 Jan09 Nov21 (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
2  NINTH ISLAND Jun28 May24 Mar14 Jan19 Nov15 (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 3.50 10% 9.20    
3  MENDELA Jul12 May02 Mar30 Feb24   (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 120 1.40 65% 0.50    
4  MASCARA Jul12 Jun04 May14 Apr17 Mar21 (troiani nicc)TORRES A 118 30.00    
5  FAVOR TO YOU Jun28 May23 Apr19 Mar16 Feb15 (damato phili)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50    
6  WANDERING KIRBY Jul06 Jun01 Mar22 Feb23 Dec20 (ramirez-r)TORRES A 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   08/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($37.5K) 2 F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIGHT MY FLAME Jun18         (melton chris)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 4.50 32% 2.10    
2  STARLIT NITE         (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
3  SYNOPTIC         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  CAROL'S MELODY         (ennis john)MURGIA A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LUCKY LIS         (jeffries patr)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
6  RUN MAMA RUN         (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
7  SMOOCHIE BOO         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
8  BLAZING FREEDOM         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
9  ZAFYRE         (o'dwyer jere)TORRES A 119 8.00    
10  WANNA GO HOME Jun16 May26 May03     (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 5.00 45% 1.20    
 
ELP-4   08/11/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VOST         (walden willi)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of WATER WHITE by CONVEYANCE)
2  MARAUDER         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of DREAM PAULINE by TAPIT)
3  SEPTEMBER SILVER         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of ELUSIVE CHECKERS by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  WADO         (hancock jo)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of CLAUDELLE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SCR  KELZ         (mcpeek kennet)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
  (by BLAME out of I'M COZY by GRAND SLAM)
6  LA NORME DE JOUR Jul19         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 5.00 17% 4.70    
  (by BY MY STANDARDS out of LA BELLE DE JOUR by STRONG MANDATE)
SCR  HIGHLY CONNECTED         (williams matt)JUAREZ NIK 119 15.00    
  (by CONNECT out of CALL OF LOVE by LEMON DROP KID)
8  YORQUICK         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by YORKTON out of QUICK AND GOLDEN by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  PETOSKEY STONES         (cox h)TORRES A 119 6.00 ★    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of MEZINKA by BODEMEISTER)
10  ALPYLAND Jun29         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 4.50 25% 3.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of IL BRIGANTE by KELA)
11  DIRECT STRIKE         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 23% 3.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DAY OF VICTORY by VICTORY GALLOP)
12  EQUATOR Jul13         (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00 12% 7.10    
  (by BODEMEISTER out of SURGING STORM by STORM CREEK)
SCR  YOUR WILDEST DREAM         (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by CEFIS out of BONNEVILLE FLATS by FLAT OUT)
14  SOUTHERN SOUL         (cowans willia)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of FLORIDA FABULOUS by HIGH COTTON)
15  HYPERLINK Jun12         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 10.00    
  (by TOCCET out of LA PANZANELLA by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
ELP-5   08/11/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONEY RACER         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of A P'S HIDDEN HONEY by A.P. INDY)
2  WINDY HOUSTON         (danner ke)TORRES A 119 5.00 13% 6.60    
  (by MUNNINGS out of WINDY FORECAST by STORMY ATLANTIC)
3  DAPHNE BLUE Apr24 Apr06       (ward a)ESPINOZA V 119 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by MUNNINGS out of ONE HOT WISH by BRING THE HEAT)
4  LADY NVIDA         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of THREE D FLAG by SUPER SAVER)
SCR  STARBRITE STARLITE Jun25         (sims a)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PLACE DES VOSGES by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
6  AUTHENTIC CHARM         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of SCOOTER BIRD by WAR PASS)
7  CARL'S FAULT         (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT out of NEW EMERALD BAY by NEW BAY)
SCR  VANISH         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of ELUSIVE HOPE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
9  HOT MASH         (servis john)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 4.50 30% 2.30    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MORE OATS PLEASE by SMART STRIKE)
10  RIVER WAVENEY         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of STREET OF GOLD by BAY STREET STAR)
11  MI DIAMANTE         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 10.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of TEQUILA QUEEN by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
SCR  LADY LAW         (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of LADY BELLAMY by BELLAMY ROAD)
SCR  FINAL SHIPMAN         (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of FINAL ADVENTURE by ORB)
SCR  CARDIFF REEF         (meah m)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of PRINCESS VIVIAN by UH OH BANGO)
 
ELP-6   08/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($46.25K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOM'S CHEESECAKE Jun27 Jun04 May08 Apr07 Mar06 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 10.00    
2  WONDER OF YOU Jul12 May15 May16 Feb23 Jan06 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 124 10.00    
3  TRUE PASSION Jun27 Jun04 May11 Apr18 Mar30 (briley lonnie)LANERIE J 118 1.80 52% 0.90    
SCR  KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW Jun12 Apr25 Mar22 Mar01 Jan31 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 2.50    
5  SWIFTWIND Jul06 May31 Mar21 Feb28 Feb13 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 8.00 6% 16.90    
6  MISS ELLE Jul13 Jun04 Apr26 Mar30 Jul15 (medina robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  COMMANDED Jul12 Jun20 May22 Apr04 Dec22 (amoss thoma)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 4.00 16% 5.40    
 
ELP-7   08/11/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU BELONG HERE Jun14 May26 Apr19     (nihei mic)BEALMEAR C 118 15.00    
2  PACIFIC Jul21 Jun21       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 15.00    
3  TIMBOS TANGLER Jul03 Mar21 Mar05 Jan17   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
4  FROSTY BEER Jul14 Jan16 Oct27 Oct18   (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
5  WHERE Y'AT Jul14 Jun07 May17 Apr26 Mar13 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 20.00 8% 11.30    
SCR  WESTERN RUN (IRE) Jul13 May26 Apr19 Mar07 Jan08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.50    
7  SANDBORN Aug29 Aug02 Jun30     (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 4.50 33% 2.00    
8  RITUAL Jul04 Jun01       (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00    
9  BIG ROG Jul14 Jun22 May30 Apr26   (king barr)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
10  BON TEMPS Jun13 May03 Mar29 Mar07 Feb08 (harty eoin)POSTON K 108 12.00 10% 9.10    
11  BRAVITAS Jul21 Jun23 Jun07     (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 118 10.00 13% 7.00    
SCR  GLOBALIST Jun26 Apr24       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00    
13  STEEL VENOM Jul14 May24       (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 10% 8.70    
14  GET ON THE BUS GUS         (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 10.00    
SCR  LEVITATING Jun01 May10 Mar28 Feb01 Nov08 (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
SCR  FILM AT ELEVEN Apr24 Mar06 Feb20 Jan24   (deville j)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
 
ELP-8   08/11/2025 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPERIAL GUN Jul21 Jun15 May03 Apr19 Feb01 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  UNLOAD Jul05 Jun07 Apr12 Mar22 Jan25 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 122 5.00    
3  CAROLO RAPIDO Jun11 May23 Apr26 Mar22 Jan25 (kenneally eddie)JUAREZ NIK 122 10.00    
4  EL MAGNIFICO Jun28 Jun06 May09 Apr13 Feb21 (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 45% 1.20    
5  KING RUSSELL Jun14 May02 Mar15 Feb03 Jan04 (moquett rona)TORRES A 122 4.50    
SCR  FRIAR NEWTON Jun11 Apr23 Mar14 Jan26 Aug27 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00    
7  D'ORO UNBRIDLED Jan18 Dec07 Oct16 Sep15 Jul27 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 4.00 28% 2.60    
 
ELP-9   08/11/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WISH CAREFULLY Jul21 Jun15 May14 May01 Mar19 (lovell mic)HERNANDEZ J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MITOLE out of FORGIVENESS by MEADOWLAKE)
2  THUNDER ROLL Sep28 Aug24 Aug10     (mott william)TORRES A 118 4.50 8% 11.40    
  (by HARD SPUN out of CHARGED by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
3  BITE AND STRIKE Jul04 Mar02 Jan04 Dec01   (mott will)TORRES A 118 5.00 12% 7.60    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of BERNADETTA by BERNARDINI)
4  ALTIPLANO         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of AYMARA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  MR BOBO Jul13         (o'dwyer jeremia)LANERIE J 124 6.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of LADY JUNE BUG by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
6  COPP Jun27 Nov30 Oct17 Sep12   (mccarthy mich)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BLAME out of SIERRA OLIVIA by PULPIT)
7  WOODLANDER Jun27         (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
  (by FORESTRY out of MADAM LAGONZA by KINGMAMBO)
8  BESTBALL         (heath g)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of WEMBLEY by BERNARDINI)
9  FIVE STAR G MAN Mar23 Feb24 Feb03 Jan06 Dec09 (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 124 10.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of FIVE STAR RAMPAGE by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  MONTERREY Jun21         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of MEXICAN HAT by STREET CRY (IRE))
11  VIVALDI Jun08 May02 Mar07 Oct28 Sep09 (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 124 2.50 59% 0.70    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CHANNEL LADY by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.