Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Lone Star Park
Friday - May 17, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
LS-1   WIN (5/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/1)-(5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/1)-(2/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
LS-2   WIN (2/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/6)-(2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/5/6)-(2/7/4/8)-(3/1/8/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
LS-3   WIN (2/7/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/8)-(2/7/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/8)-(2/7/4/8)-(2/7/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/4/8)-(3/1/8/4)-(10/5/6/9) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
LS-4   WIN (3/1/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/8/4)-(3/1/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/8/4)-(3/1/8/4)-(3/1/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
LS-5   WIN (10/5/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/5/6/9)-(10/5/6/9/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/5/6/9)-(10/5/6/9/8)-(10/5/6/9/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
LS-6   WIN (9/7/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/7/1/8)-(9/7/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/7/1/8)-(9/7/1/8)-(9/7/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/7/1/8)-(1/8/2/7)-(1/4/9/2/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
LS-7   WIN (1/8/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/2/7)-(1/8/2/10/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/8/2/7)-(1/8/2/10/7)-(1/8/2/10/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/8/2/7)-(1/4/9/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
LS-8   WIN (1/4/9/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/9/2/6)-(1/4/9/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/9/2/6)-(1/4/9/2/6)-(1/4/9/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
LS-1   05/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL QUESO GRANDE Apr26 Apr06 Mar15     (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of ORBISTON PARVA by INCLUDE)
2  GUCCI BOY Mar16 Feb10 Dec30 Nov09 Sep22 (diodoro rob)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 1.20 20% 4.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of VERY FASHIONABLE by OLD FASHIONED)
3  FLASH HUMOR Apr06 Mar10       (silv)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 3.50    
  (by FLASHBACK out of LOCUM by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN Sep30 Aug26       (newbold jo)RAMIREZ JR 119 12.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of LETCHWORTH by TIZNOW)
5  FIREBALL BIRDIE Apr26 Apr06       (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 118 2.00 42% 1.40    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SONG OF THE LARK by SEEKING THE GOLD)
6  CARRY THE FLAG Apr26 Mar30 Mar15 Jan20 Nov24 (swift )HERNANDEZ A 113 12.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of FLAGSTAFF by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
LS-2   05/17/2024 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GEE GEE Mar25 Dec08 Nov11 Oct12 Jun16 (k)DE CRUZ 120 8.00    
2  CAJUN NINJA Mar14 Feb10 Jan11 Dec14 Nov02 (silva miguel)CABRERA DAVID 122 1.80 31% 2.20    
3  REASON OVER RICHES Apr18 Apr07 Mar08 Jan26 Nov24 (davidson br)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 12.00    
SCR  HOLLY DOLLY Apr07 Mar09 Dec02 Nov08 Sep29 (ashford ray)DIEGO V 120 3.00    
5  INSIGHTFUL MISS Apr19 Mar15 Jan12 Nov17 Oct22 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 120 2.00 21% 3.80    
6  BERTIE'S CAUSE Apr27 Mar24 Mar02 Feb17 Feb02 (broberg ka)ERAMIA E 124 5.00 5% 18.40    
 
LS-3   05/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST TRAFFIC Apr28 Mar08 Feb23 Feb09 Jul04 (ashf)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 8.00    
2  MALIBU S S Apr18 Mar16 Feb25 Feb18 Feb02 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.00 23% 3.40    
3  ALGEBRA Apr27 Mar23 Feb17 Dec20 Oct13 (caldwell r)ELLIOTT S 124 2.50    
4  DRIVEHAPPY Apr21 Mar16 Feb24 Feb04 Nov29 (scholl kevi)WETHEY JR 124 15.00 17% 4.90    
5  HEIR TO GREATNESS May05 Apr21 Apr05 Mar15 Jan26 (broberg ka)ERAMIA E 124 5.00    
6  QUARTERBACK DAK Apr18 Mar23 Feb25 Sep27 Sep09 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 124 8.00    
7  MONGOLIAN KINGDOM Mar27 Feb22 Jan11 Dec19 Nov28 (cappellucci d)CABRERA DAVID 124 3.00 22% 3.50    
8  ICARUS Apr26 Mar17 Feb02 Dec09 Nov15 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
LS-4   05/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO MOVES Apr05 Mar07 Feb11 Dec16 Nov09 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 4.00 31% 2.20    
2  SEND OFF May04 Apr26 Apr07 Mar24 Mar09 (davidso)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 113 20.00    
3  NORTHWIND May05 Apr26 Apr06 Mar17 Mar02 (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 124 4.50 37% 1.70    
4  KITTER KAT Apr05 Mar02 Feb23 Feb09 Dec07 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GO CATS Apr13 Mar29 Mar13 Feb02 Dec29 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 2.00    
SCR  DABOOGEYMAN Apr02 Mar05 Feb24 Jan19 Dec21 (hewit)MANRRIQUE JOSE 124 20.00    
7  HARD TO COME BY May04 Apr05 Mar15 Mar01 Feb10 (brob)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 6.00    
8  TOP COP Apr26 Apr06 Mar17 Feb03 Nov24 (willis mind)WETHEY JR 124 8.00 8% 12.20    
SCR  CROW'S NEST Apr05 Mar10 Mar02 Feb23 Jan27 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 12.00    
10  MAN IN THE MIDDLE Apr26 Apr06 Mar16 Jan28 Sep06 (castellanos j)CABRERA DAVID 124 15.00    
11  D W STRONG Apr18 Feb24 Feb08 Dec01 Oct27 (butler ke)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 124 30.00    
 
LS-5   05/17/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($35K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RODEO CHAMP Apr21 Feb24 Jan28 Jan12 Nov14 (davis shawn )ALVAREZ L 122 12.00    
2  WHISKEY NOT WINE Apr19 Mar09 Feb16 Feb11 Jan06 (willis mind)WETHEY JR 122 12.00    
SCR  CALICOCO Mar23 Mar02 Jan13 Dec09 Sep02 (wilson shan)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.50    
4  ROBO Apr19 Mar23 Mar15 Feb23 Feb11 (gove)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 30.00    
5  SPOILER Apr19 Mar16 Feb02 Jan12 Dec08 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 3.00 15% 5.80    
6  BIZZEE CHANNEL Mar10 Jan11 Nov23 Sep07 Aug16 (villafranco f)CABRERA DAVID 122 12.00 7% 14.10    
7  COUNTRY CAPER Apr26 Mar16 Feb11 Nov02 Sep21 (bravo francisc)SANCHEZ OBED 124 12.00    
8  COTTONWOOD Feb11 Jan06 Nov25 Oct06 Sep23 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 6.00 ★    
9  IBERIAN RUNNER May04 Mar23 Feb17 Feb11 Jan26 (govea c)GONCALVES R 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  DON'TASK DON'TTELL Apr19 Feb24 Feb10 Nov11 Sep29 (padilla a)DIEGO V 124 2.50 53% 0.90    
 
LS-6   05/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($40.5K) 3 F PT- 9:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  OKIE BLING Mar29 Mar02 Feb10 Jan07 Nov30 (young e)ELLIOTT S 122 3.00 12% 7.10    
2  ANTIFREEZE Apr21 Mar22 Mar03 Feb10 Jan05 (jacks karen)WETHEY JR 122 12.00    
3  DULCE AMANECER YG May05 Apr21 Mar30 Mar03 Feb17 (m)DE CRUZ 122 20.00    
4  FLYING FIRST CLASS Apr21 Apr06 Mar16 Feb10 Jan07 (cald)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 122 5.00    
5  BLUE HEAVENLY May05 Apr21 Mar30 Mar20 Mar03 (govea c)GONCALVES R 122 8.00    
SCR  IMMA GOING TO WIN Apr28 Mar29 Mar03 Nov21 Oct11 (pish danny)DIAZ RENE 122 15.00    
7  AVALING May05 Apr06 Mar16     (castellanos j)CABRERA DAVID 122 4.50 22% 3.60    
8  SPEAK SOFTLY Apr21 Mar22 Mar03 Jan27 Jan05 (calhoun wi)ERAMIA E 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  SUCCESSFULPATH Apr21 Mar30 Jan27 Jan06 Nov21 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 122 2.00 34% 1.90    
 
LS-7   05/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STELLAR TAP Apr28 Apr19 Apr05 Mar07 Jan26 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 123 2.50 30% 2.30    
2  STANS HOME RUN Apr27 Mar30 Feb25 Feb03 Jan12 (hjort donna)ALVAREZ L 123 6.00 22% 3.50    
3  JOHAN ZOFFANI (IRE) Apr27 Mar08 Feb18 Feb10 Jan06 (hjort donna)SALAZAR TERESA 118 10.00    
4  REQUISITION Apr29 Apr16 Mar30 Mar17 Feb25 (davidson m)ERAMIA E 123 30.00    
5  BIG BROTHER Apr27 Feb15 Jan20 Dec08 Oct27 (b)BRIDGMOHAN MARLO 123 20.00    
6  RESOLVE NOW Feb19 Jan27 Jan19 Dec15 Dec02 (eoff terry)GLASS DERBE 118 30.00    
7  LEVY Apr21 Apr06 Mar17 Mar02 Feb10 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  ABSAROKA Mar30 Mar01 Jan27 Dec09 Nov20 (caldwell r)SANCHEZ OBED 123 2.00 23% 3.40    
9  GIST Apr22 Mar29 Mar01 Feb02 Dec09 (davidso)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 20.00    
10  YAK Apr27 Dec15 Sep27 Sep11 Jul05 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 123 5.00 ★    
11  FOREVAMO Mar30 Jan19 Dec14 Dec02 Sep28 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 123 30.00    
12  HIT ONE OUT Mar30 Nov10 Oct18 Oct04 Sep13 (p)DE CRUZ 123 30.00    
SCR  PINTXOS Mar21 Mar01 Feb06 Jan19 Dec20 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 123 6.00    
 
LS-8   05/17/2024 4950ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3UP M/F PT-10:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST A SIP Sep30         (ashf)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 2.50 56% 0.80    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of SWITCHEROO by LEFT BANKER)
2  CACTUS BLOSSOM Mar29 Mar17       (bravo franci)WISEMAN ISAIAH 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WILBURN out of CYPRESS ISLE by FORESTRY)
3  SOTONA Mar29 Feb04 Dec17 Oct19 Sep09 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 118 3.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of DIANA'S THRILL by ARTIE SCHILLER)
4  WARRIOR'S RETURN Jan07 Sep12 Sep03 Jul29 Jul02 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.50 9% 10.20    
  (by UNCLE MO out of WARRIOR MAID by HOLY BULL)
5  UNLUCKY IN LOVE Apr21 Mar29 Mar08 Feb24 Jan28 (coats jam)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 118 30.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of COWGIRL IN LOVE by COWBOY CAL)
6  PRONUNCIATION Apr21 Mar29 Mar01 Feb04 Nov10 (craddoc)GONCALVES R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by QURBAAN out of SARAAMA by BAHRI)
7  PANTHERA Mar08 Feb24 Jan28 Dec01 Nov10 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 5.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of GORGELICIOUS by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  TIZ A KNOCKOUT Apr21 Mar30 Mar03 Feb16 Feb03 (jacks karen)WETHEY JR 124 6.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of TIZ CHAMP by TIZNOW)
9  KARA Apr21 Mar30       (pish danny)DIAZ RENE 118 12.00 7% 13.90    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of SHEBA'S SECRET by KINGMAMBO)
10  FICKLE MISTRESS Apr21 Mar30       (gustafson austin)DIEGO V 118 12.00    
  (by ENTICED out of MIGHTY FERRARI by SPECIAL RATE)
SCR  ERIA VITTATA Feb19 Nov29       (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 124 30.00    
  (by CHITOZ out of ELLA'S GLORY by HONOUR AND GLORY)
SCR  SKYVIEW DRIVE Mar30 Mar03 Feb16 Nov08 Oct16 (hebert mat)ERAMIA E 124 2.50    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LA CLOCHE by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  OUR GIRL FLINT Mar29 Feb09 Jan24 Dec27 Nov16 (h)BRIDGMOHAN MARLO 118 20.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of SUGARANDICE by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  UTSIRA May05 Apr21 Mar30 Mar03 Feb16 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 3.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of FLOUNCE by MAJESTIC LIGHT)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.