Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Presque Isle Downs
Thursday - September 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

PID-1   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/2)-(4/3/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(4/3/5)-(3/2/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PID-2   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(3/2/6) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(3/2/6)-(7/4/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-3   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(7/4/6) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(7/4/6)-(4/7/8) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-4   WIN (7/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/6)-(7/4/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/6)-(7/4/6)-(7/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/6)-(4/7/8) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6)-(4/7/8)-(8/3/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-5   WIN (4/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/8)-(4/7/8) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/8)-(4/7/8)-(4/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/8)-(8/3/1) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (4/7/8)-(8/3/1)-(8/3/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-6   WIN (8/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/3/1)-(8/3/6/1) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    TRI (8/3/1)-(8/3/6/1)-(8/3/6/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/3/1)-(8/3/2) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (8/3/1)-(8/3/2)-(2/7/4/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PID-7   WIN (8/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/3/2)-(8/3/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/3/2)-(8/3/2)-(8/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/3/2)-(2/7/4/9) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
PID-8   WIN (2/7/4/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/9)-(2/7/4/9) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/9)-(2/7/4/9)-(2/7/4/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
PID-1   09/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUTTA THE CLOUD Sep19 Sep02 Aug04 Jun26 Jun05 (markgraf davi)ROJAS MARTINA 115 8.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of SURPRISE CAMEO by GIANT SURPRISE)
NO TAPPIN OUT Jan21         (morey wi)GALLARDO A 120 2.50 27% 2.80    
  (by KANTHAROS out of TAP TAP TAPPING by TAPIT)
INVENTING ANNA Sep03 Jul21 May18 Oct30 Oct08 (mccarthy michael)MARTINEZ W 120 6.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of YES LIZ by YES IT'S TRUE)
ACCEPT THE OUTCOME (IRE) Aug23 Jun10 Apr15 Feb16   (sisterso)MARTINEZ A 120 2.00 34% 2.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of SILENT THOUGHTS by GALILEO (ARG))
SCR  LEMON CURRY Aug10 Jul31 Jul12     (fennessy john)ALLEN M 124 6.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of STEP ASIDE BOYS by QUIET AMERICAN)
BROOKLYN GIRLEE Aug31 Jul30 Jul05     (delacour )CARRASCO R 120 3.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of WICKEDLY by MR. GREELEY)
 
PID-2   09/28/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PONT DU GARD Sep10 Aug23 Jul31 Jun19 May30 (schaber debbi)VILLA-GOMEZ H 124 6.00    
PHARAOH FANCY PANT Aug30 Aug17 Aug02 Jul03 Jun13 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 124 8.00    
PATRIOT DRIVE Sep11 Aug23 Aug08 Jul10 Jun24 (rojas ed)GALLARDO A 124 1.80 17% 4.90    
EXPRESS PHAROAH Aug30 Aug22 Apr21 Mar29 Feb24 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 124 3.00 40% 1.50    
PAPA HONOR Sep10 Aug17 Jul23 Jun06 Oct20 (bernardini jay )LEON A 124 4.50 13% 6.90    
FLIGHT TO PARADISE Sep21 Sep11 Jul31 Jul19 Jun21 (judd cas)MARTINEZ A 124 3.50    
 
PID-3   09/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TEMPUS Sep12 Aug29 Aug08 Jul15 May23 (dickey keith)RIQUELME J 122 4.00    
STRAIGHTOUTADUTTON Sep20 Sep05 Aug10 Jul24 Jun05 (russell randa)DELGADO DAVID 122 3.00 34% 1.90    
STARSHIP EMPIRE Sep18 Aug15 Jul31 Jul10 Jun21 (weaver cassondra)MARTINEZ W 122 1.40 38% 1.70    
CHOCOLATE PHILLING Sep05 Aug15 Aug02 Jul12 Jun15 (maddox a)ALLEN D 122 10.00    
SUMMER BOSS Sep25 Sep04 Aug10 Jul25 Jul03 (schneide)MARTINEZ A 122 12.00    
HE'S A GOOD DANCER Sep11 Aug23 Aug09 Aug02 Jul12 (rice kevin)AYALA J 118 4.50 7% 13.40    
 
PID-4   09/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CAPTAIN MAD JACK Sep11 Aug16 Jul19 Jul04 May31 (markgraf david)STANLEY O 122 10.00    
COMMODORE BARRY Sep18 Aug23 Aug17 Aug02 Jul05 (cooper thomas)ALLEN D 122 4.50    
FIELDER Sep05 Aug14 Jul05 Jun14 May15 (hayes le)MARTINEZ A 124 3.50    
SUMMERFEST Sep20 Sep05 Aug17 Jul31 Jul05 (girten t)GALLARDO A 124 2.50 23% 3.30    
OLDZFOURFORTYTWO Sep18 Aug14 Jul05 Jun14 May24 (hayes leland)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 6.00    
CHARLIE CHARLIE Sep18 Aug14 Aug01 Jul19 Oct25 (hayes w)SPIETH S 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
WHERE YOU WAS Sep05 Aug17 Aug03 Jul05 Jun20 (rogers ronald)ROJAS MARTINA 117 3.00 49% 1.00    
 
PID-5   09/28/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($14K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DONTINVADEMYSPACE Sep04 Aug26 Aug21 Jul05 Jun06 (brooks e)ALLEN M 120 3.00    
GOLDEN OAK Sep13 Sep06 Aug17 Aug02 Jul18 (schneider ki)AYALA J 122 12.00    
SCR  REVERE NOTE Sep09 Aug12 Aug02 Jun03 May18 (evans michael)ROJAS MARTINA 115 6.00    
RIVZONAROLL Sep06 Jul26 Jul09 Jun25 Dec10 (rivelli )GALLARDO A 118 1.80 67% 0.50    
PUNX Sep13 Sep04 Aug02 Jul18 Jul04 (stokes lance)MARTINEZ W 122 8.00    
SCIENCE TO WIN Sep13 Aug02 Jun05 May17 Nov01 (herringt)MARTINEZ A 122 12.00    
I ONCE STOOD ALONE Sep04 Aug27 Aug14 Jul26 Jul18 (brooks e)STANLEY O 118 4.50 10% 8.80    
SILVER TOKEN Sep13 Sep04 Aug17 Aug01 Jul18 (markgraf david)ALLEN D 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
PID-6   09/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($17K) 2 F PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NOW I'M HERE Sep10 Sep03 Aug23     (brooks e)ALLEN M 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HOT MOCHA Sep11 Aug04       (mccarthy michael)MARTINEZ W 120 4.50    
TWO HEARTED Sep09 Jul16 Jun12 May23   (matejka pavel)WALKER M 120 6.00 9% 10.30    
Z INDY LINDY Aug21 Aug02       (connelly teres)ALLEN D 120 5.00    
TURBO MAGGIE Aug30         (sells rach)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 120 12.00    
BERYL RACER Sep10 Aug19 May23     (matejka)DOMINGUEZ EDILBERTO 120 4.00    
ANOTHERDAYOFWORK Sep03 Aug26 Aug17 Jul27 May31 (brooks e)STANLEY O 120 8.00    
WARRIOR BERNICE         (girten t)MARTINEZ A 120 3.50 63% 0.60    
QUEEN CATALINA Sep11         (gotera car)LEON A 120 10.00    
 
PID-7   09/28/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GUACO Sep05 Aug16 Jul26 Jul10 Jun20 (weaver cassondr)STANLEY O 122 1.80    
DIGITAL FOOTPRINT Sep12 Aug08 Jul18 Jul05 May24 (kintz ma)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 122 8.00 18% 4.40    
HARD COUNT Sep03 Jul31 Jul05 Jun07 May16 (bernardini jay )LEON A 122 3.00 26% 2.80    
CHIC N WILBUR Sep12 Aug23 Aug10 Jul26 Jul04 (markgraf davi)WALKER M 122 15.00    
TAMANRASSETT Sep10 Aug23 Aug15 Jul31 Jul16 (gomez alejandro)WALES GARY 122 15.00    
FUEL THE BERN Sep12 Aug30 Aug08 Jul19 Jun20 (weaver cassondra)MARTINEZ W 122 5.00    
SCR  HEIRLOOM KITTEN Sep21 Aug17 Aug02 Jun26 Jun06 (girten t)GALLARDO A 122 10.00    
COUNTY COURT Sep18 Aug28 Aug15 Jul31 Jul11 (rojas eduardo)ROJAS MARTINA 117 4.00 32% 2.10    
 
PID-8   09/28/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NOT ORBINARY Sep13 Aug22 Oct18 Oct06 Aug17 (guciardo joh)AYALA J 122 15.00    
NEVISIAN SPIRIT Sep13 Aug17 Aug01 Jul17 Jun14 (potts g)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 4.00 29% 2.50    
SUMTING RIGHT Sep13 Aug30 Aug09 Aug01 Jul19 (fennessy john)WALES GARY 122 10.00    
FOLK HERO Aug30 Aug15 Aug01 Jul17 Jun27 (rojas eduardo)ROJAS MARTINA 117 2.50 16% 5.20    
SCOOP THERE IT IS Sep19 Aug22 Aug09 Jul19 Jun14 (markgra)DOMINGUEZ EDILBERTO 124 15.00    
BEAUTIFUL STAR Sep19 Aug09 Jul17 Jun27 Jun20 (brooks e)STANLEY O 122 15.00    
RICHIES NOBLE GIRL Aug30 Aug14 Jul17 Jun14 May31 (rojas ed)GALLARDO A 124 3.50 22% 3.50    
SCR  LEAD PERFORMER Sep13 Aug28 Aug10 Aug02 Jul04 (stokes l)MARTINEZ A 118 15.00    
THISAINTJUMPSTREET Sep13 Aug30 Aug14 Jul31 Jul12 (markgraf davi)WALKER M 124 6.00 12% 7.50    
10  TWISTED TREASURE Sep13 Aug17 Aug01 Jul05 Jun20 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 122 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.