Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Lone Star Park
Thursday - May 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
LS-1   WIN (2/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/5/7)-(2/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
LS-2   WIN (2/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/7)-(2/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (2/7)-(2/4/5/8)-(6/8/5/7/10) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
LS-3   WIN (2/4/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/5/8)-(2/4/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/5/8)-(2/4/5/8)-(2/4/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
LS-4   WIN (6/8/5/7/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/5/7/10)-(6/8/5/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/5/7/10)-(6/8/5/7/10)-(6/8/5/7/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
LS-5   WIN (8/3/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/4/1)-(8/3/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/3/4/1)-(8/3/4/1)-(8/3/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/3/4/1)-(8/3/1/11)-(5/1/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
LS-6   WIN (8/3/1/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/1/11)-(8/3/1/11/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/3/1/11)-(8/3/1/11/9)-(8/3/1/11/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/3/1/11)-(5/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
LS-7   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/2/3)-(5/1/2/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
LS-1   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 2 ALL PT- 7:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POUND OUT A DEAL         (deville c)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 119 4.50    
  (by EL DEAL out of FIFTYSHADESOFNAY by REDDING COLLIERY)
2  MAGICAL MARK         (broberg karl)CABRERA DAVID 119 2.00 38% 1.60    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of STUNNING LADY by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  EMILY'S BULLET         (pomier ch)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 116 4.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of BESSIE'S BULLET by WANDO)
SCR  LEGENDARY DRAGON         (pomier chase)ALVAREZ L 119 5.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of BERTIE'S IMAGE by READY'S IMAGE)
5  ROCKET SOCKS         (davi)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ONE GO ALL GO out of BUSTIN A MOVE by BUSTIN STONES)
6  COOL RIDE         (gelner jayd)WETHEY JR 119 3.50 18% 4.60    
  (by TAKEOVER TARGET out of CANDY DELICIOUS by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
7  DA RINGO         (b)DE CRUZ 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of PLEASE EXPLAIN by CURLIN)
 
LS-2   05/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($25K) Purse ($23K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BRANDONS BABE Feb25 Jun18 May30 Apr30 Mar10 (jacks e)DIEGO V 124 3.50 19% 4.30    
2  DISCREET SMILE Apr16 Mar12 Feb18 Jan15 Jul17 (jacks e)CABRERA DAVID 124 6.00 19% 4.20    
3  LIL ASHLEY B. Apr23 Apr01 Mar17 Feb12 Jan07 (pish danny)ERAMIA E 124 15.00    
4  DEL MAR DRAMA Apr15 Feb17 Feb05 Jan06 Nov27 (diodoro robe)FUENTES A 124 8.00    
5  XYLOPHONE Apr30 Mar31 Mar10 Feb11 Jan15 (mcbride burl )BAILEY CHEL-C 124 4.50    
SCR  GASTOWN Apr13 Apr01 Mar12 Feb25 Feb11 (g)DE CRUZ 124 8.00 12% 7.60    
7  DADDYMADEMEDOIT Jul10 May19 Apr30 Feb16 Jan13 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 5.00 7% 14.20    
8  HOT TUB HOTTIE Apr13 Mar05 Feb11 Jan22 Oct13 (brob)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 15.00    
SCR  LEGENDARYS FIRST Feb12 Oct23 Oct05 Sep20 Sep13 (montano)GONCALVES R 124 15.00    
SCR  QUINN ELLA Apr16 Feb25 Feb12 Jan15 Jan06 (govea cesar)BARANDELA SOFIA 119 5.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  SET THE PACE Apr02 Jan16 May28 May06 Mar12 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 124 4.00    
 
LS-3   05/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAX PANDOWDY Apr14 Mar26 Mar05 Feb12 Jan22 (hirdes john)BARANDELA SOFIA 118 6.00    
2  FREDONIAN Apr29 Feb15 Jan13 Dec17 Dec01 (broberg karl)CABRERA DAVID 123 3.00 38% 1.60    
SCR  EPIC RUN Apr01 Feb05 Jan07 Dec17 Nov26 (montano w)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 123 15.00    
4  PEPPERMAN Mar03 Feb05 Jan06 Dec16 Nov27 (diodoro robe)FUENTES A 123 1.60 18% 4.60    
5  BIG ROJO Apr29 Mar18 Feb22 Feb02 Jan21 (torrez jeren)ALVAREZ L 123 4.50 11% 8.00    
6  HE'S PRETTY LUCKY Apr24 Apr03 Mar12 Feb25 Feb11 (padilla c)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 123 20.00    
7  GOLD ACCOUNT Apr29 Mar31 Feb25 Oct08 Sep22 (eoff )MANRRIQUE JOSE 123 8.00    
8  KENTUCKY PEERLESS Apr29 Apr14 Mar28 Mar21 Jan10 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 123 10.00 11% 8.00    
 
LS-4   05/11/2023 5940ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($25K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOHAN ZOFFANI (IRE) Apr08 Feb24 Nov08 Oct27 Oct12 (willis )GONCALVES R 120 15.00    
2  KOKOKOMO Apr30 Apr08 Mar17 Feb24 Feb10 (pish danny)MORA GERARDO 120 5.00    
3  ALVAARO Mar03 Feb05 Dec02 Nov14 Oct21 (diodoro robe)FUENTES A 120 6.00    
SCR  FREEDOM FACTOR Apr12 Mar03 Feb10 Jan21 Jan06 (govea ces)RODRIGUEZ ANARDIS 120 8.00    
5  THUNDERSHOOK Apr16 Apr07 Mar19 Feb20 Jan20 (villafranco)WETHEY JR 120 15.00 10% 9.20    
6  ENGLANDER Apr08 Mar10 Feb24 Jan28 Jan20 (gustafson austin)DIEGO V 120 3.50 33% 2.10    
7  NEWPORT BEACH Apr05 Mar17 Feb10 Oct20 Sep25 (offolter j)ERAMIA E 120 15.00 5% 17.70    
8  DON'TASK DON'TTELL Feb24 Jan20 Nov08 Oct27 Oct12 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 120 1.80 23% 3.30    
9  BROCK ON BY Apr23 Feb10 Nov08 Oct06 Sep15 (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 120 10.00    
10  HARD LOVE Apr19 Mar09 Jan07 Sep24 Jul31 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  RANDELLO Apr13 Apr01 Mar03 Jan28 Jan06 (broberg karl)CABRERA DAVID 120 4.50    
 
LS-5   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET BAY Oct19 Oct06 Sep14 Sep02 Aug20 (broberg karl)CABRERA DAVID 122 8.00 8% 12.00    
2  MISS DISTINCTIVE Apr29 Apr16 Feb24 Feb04 Jan01 (brob)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 10.00    
3  SUPER WONDER GIRL Mar16 Feb19 Jan29 Jan01 Dec01 (diodoro robe)FUENTES A 122 1.80 21% 3.80    
4  DOWNTOWN ABBY Apr15 Mar18 Jul01 Jun12 May05 (calhoun wil)WETHEY JR 122 10.00 10% 8.90    
SCR  TOOTIE Apr21 Mar25 Feb18 Feb04 Jan16 (dupuy allen)DIAZ RENE 122 15.00    
6  MIDSUMMER SOIREE Apr21 Mar23 Jan20 Nov20 Oct30 (diodoro robe)ALVAREZ L 117 12.00    
7  CADEAU DE PAIX Apr30 Apr08 Apr01 Feb25 Feb11 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.50    
8  MARIAH'S CANDY Apr15 Apr02 Feb26 Feb05 Dec20 (gelner j)MORA GERARDO 124 2.50 38% 1.60    
 
LS-6   05/11/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUMMER HELP         (padilla a)DIEGO V 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of HARLAN HELPER by FRIENDS LAKE)
2  MR. VALENTINO Apr15 Mar31 Mar17 Feb24   (keen da)GONCALVES R 119 3.00    
  (by REVOLVING out of FLAIR FOR FASHION by OLD FASHIONED)
3  BEYOND INFINITY (FR)         (gustafson aus)CABRERA DAVID 124 6.00 19% 4.20    
  (by SEPTIEME CIEL out of ANCHORS AWAY (FR) by FABULOUS DANCER)
4  SMARTY RIDGE Apr08 Mar24 Mar03 Feb17 Dec15 (s)DE CRUZ 124 8.00    
  (by RONRIDGE WILL out of RUN SMARTY by RUN PRODUCTION)
SCR  BLINGO Mar19 Mar05 Feb11 Jan28 Dec07 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 119 10.00    
  (by TOO MUCH BLING out of BRICKYARD BABY by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
6  DADA BOOM RIDGE Apr08 Mar19 Feb25 Jan13 Jul21 (kotar)CAMACHO-BENITEZ SIMON 119 20.00    
  (by RONRIDGE WILL out of LADY ELAGENCE by BARBERSTOWN)
SCR  RIP RULES Apr15 Mar31       (echeverri)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 119 15.00    
  (by BRADESTER out of GIRL'S RULE by ROMAN RULER)
8  TIZ BODHI BOY Mar12 Feb26 Feb11     (pish danny)ALVAREZ L 119 1.80 47% 1.10    
  (by HALF OURS out of CADEBRIE by TIZNOW)
9  VALDINA DREAMS Apr29 Apr13 Mar24 Mar03 Feb19 (payne w)MORA GERARDO 124 12.00 ★    
  (by TOO MUCH BLING out of PATA FRESCA by INDIAN CHARLIE)
10  MALORIE'S BIG BOY Apr30 Apr08 Mar05 Feb11 Jan20 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by CAPTAIN COUNTDOWN out of MALORIE'S FIRST by TOTAL COMMAND)
11  KEEPMOVINGFORWARD         (whitton mark)JUDE JOHN 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BRADESTER out of I'M JULIETTE by FIRST DEFENCE)
 
LS-7   05/11/2023 3300ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($33.5K) 3 F PT-10:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AISHA R N Apr01 Feb18 Jan15 Dec09 Nov12 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 122 2.50 15% 5.80    
2  NIGHT ORB Apr07 Mar03       (scholl kev)ERAMIA E 122 20.00 6% 15.10    
3  COUNTRY LADY Apr13 Mar08 Feb10 Jan13 Dec23 (thomas lee)MORA GERARDO 122 3.50 ★    
SCR  SHACKED STATESIDE Apr13 Mar19 Mar05 Feb11 Jul08 (broberg karl)CABRERA DAVID 122 10.00    
5  TITLED LADY Mar24 Feb25 Jan22 Dec19 Nov10 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 122 1.80 38% 1.60    
SCR  AZUNIA Apr14 Mar26 Mar04 Feb11 Jan15 (padilla a)DIEGO V 122 15.00    
7  HOW BOUT ME Feb18 Jan27 Jan08 Dec14 Nov19 (gelner jayd)WETHEY JR 122 15.00    
8  FLY CONDOR Apr02 Mar10 Feb05 Jan07 Dec15 (villa)MANRRIQUE JOSE 122 8.00    
9  SWEET SLEW Apr30 Apr23 Mar03 Jan14 Dec19 (govea cesar)BARANDELA SOFIA 117 20.00    
10  YVONNE'S MISS Apr13 May27       (young scott )FUENTES A 122 20.00    
SCR  PERILOUS LIFE Apr08         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.00 17% 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.