Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Thursday - May 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (2/3/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7)-(2/3/4/7) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/4/7)-(1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4/7)-(1/5/6)-(2/7/6/5/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CT-2   WIN (1/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/6)-(1/5/6/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/6)-(1/5/6/8/3)-(1/5/6/8/3) 36 $1.00 $18.00 
    DD (1/5/6)-(2/7/6/5/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/5/6)-(2/7/6/5/8)-(3/7/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CT-3   WIN (2/7/6/5/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/7/6/5/8)-(2/7/6/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/7/6/5/8)-(2/7/6/5/8)-(2/7/6/5/8) 60 $1.00 $30.00 
    DD (2/7/6/5/8)-(3/7/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/7/6/5/8)-(3/7/1)-(9/3/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CT-4   WIN (3/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/1)-(3/7/1/10/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/1)-(3/7/1/10/5)-(3/7/1/10/5) 36 $1.00 $18.00 
    DD (3/7/1)-(9/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/7/1)-(9/3/2)-(11/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CT-5   WIN (9/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/3/2)-(9/3/2/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/3/2)-(9/3/2/1/6)-(9/3/2/1/6) 36 $1.00 $18.00 
    DD (9/3/2)-(11/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (9/3/2)-(11/3)-(4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-6   WIN (11/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (11/3)-(11/3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (11/3)-(11/3/5/1)-(11/3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (11/3)-(4/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (11/3)-(4/2)-(8/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-7   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2)-(4/2/6/8)-(4/2/6/8) 12 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/2)-(8/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CT-8   WIN (8/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/2)-(8/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/4/2)-(8/4/2)-(8/4/2) 6 $1.00 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   05/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($20.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ORANGEBURG Apr20 Apr07 Mar02 Jan27 Jan12 (meehan )NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 5.00    
2  MR CHANCE ROMANCE Apr27 Mar31 Feb24 Feb09 Jan11 (brown w)ARAUJO DENIS 122 3.50 55% 0.80    
3  SPIRIT OF WINDSOR Apr27 Apr06 Mar10 Feb08 Feb02 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 3.00 8% 11.30    
4  GET OFF MY CLOUD Apr13 Feb25 Jan27 Dec08 Nov17 (sanderson w)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 4.00 7% 13.60    
5  ROCKET'S CASTLE Jan26 Jan06 Nov30 Nov10 Oct05 (shanley mark)CECIL Y 120 8.00    
6  SEATTLE SAILAWAY Apr06 Mar10 Feb02 Dec16 Oct26 (stehr j)NUNEZ ANAHI 122 8.00    
7  CHIPPEWA'S CASTLE Apr07 Mar30 Mar18 Feb25 Feb15 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 4.50 6% 15.30    
 
CT-2   05/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOUT ENSEMBLE Apr08 Mar25 Feb23 Jan19 Dec14 (viands greg)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 2.00 37% 1.70    
2  I B NASTY Apr20 Mar30 Mar09 Feb11 Jan26 (racanelli mar)SIMPSON JASON 120 20.00    
3  PRUSSIAN BLUE Apr13 Mar17 Feb24 Feb01 Dec30 (lucas antho)RAMGEET R 118 8.00 ★    
4  REDWHITEANDTACOS Mar22 Feb26 Jan16 Dec09 Nov19 (dilodovico d)BARBOSA JEIRON 120 3.00    
5  KOBE'S GIRL Apr08 Mar31 Mar04 Feb16 Dec31 (serey jr)PELTROCHE F 120 2.50 22% 3.60    
6  HELLUVA LADY Apr27 Feb16 Jan06 Dec10 Nov24 (laguna hom)RIVERA R 113 15.00 18% 4.70    
7  DECISIVE CAUSE Apr20 Mar30 Feb16 Feb04 Jan19 (shanley mark)CECIL Y 120 12.00    
8  IF THEN Apr06 Mar19 Feb26 Feb04 Jan16 (nazario p)CRISPIN ALEXANDER 122 10.00 ★    
9  GOSSIPING Apr07 Mar30 Feb22 Jan28 Jan06 (conn p)RODRIGUEZ V 122 30.00    
 
CT-3   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($29.4K) 3 ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRUISE ON BY Mar24         (jackson an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 15.00    
  (by JUBA out of THREE ARCH BAY by ARCHARCHARCH)
2  ZIGGY STARDUST Apr27 Apr08 Jan04 Dec14 Nov23 (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 1.60 41% 1.50    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of RUNAWAY BRAE by YARROW BRAE)
3  LAST OF BAD BOYS Apr22 Mar31       (hamlin kathleen)RODRIGUEZ V 122 20.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of MISS BAD GIRL by FRIENDS LAKE)
4  DR RENDEZVOUS Apr20 Mar31 Mar10 Jan27   (contreras javie)PELTROCHE F 122 15.00    
  (by ALDRIN out of FRENCH OAK by ARCH)
5  BAD LINEAGE Apr20         (perry e)ACOSTA D 122 4.50 5% 19.00    
  (by JUBA out of BELL KEEPER by CHAPEL ROYAL)
6  TURTLE DOVE Apr20 Mar30 Mar16     (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of SHE'S HAD ENOUGH by STAY THIRSTY)
7  LOVETHEBAND Apr20 Mar30 Mar09 Feb15   (grams )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 4.00 28% 2.60    
  (by BANDBOX out of LOV'EMNRUN by NOT FOR LOVE)
8  CHARITABLE WINDSOR Apr22 Mar31       (petty kristy)LARROSA G 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of CHARITABLE BOUND by CHARITABLE MAN)
SCR  KING OF LUCK Apr29         (brown w)ARAUJO DENIS 122 10.00    
  (by EXCLUSIVE QUALITY out of HILARIOUS GIFT by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
CT-4   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIS ROYAL G May04 Apr13 Mar18 Feb25 Oct02 (magana jos)RIVERA R 115 10.00 8% 11.30    
2  ROCK FILE Apr13 Oct21 Sep23 Sep02 Aug11 (o'neill)NUNEZ ANAHI 124 10.00    
3  MACHEN'S RIDGE Apr22 Apr06 Mar16 Jan27 Dec14 (hurley jack)TROTMAN KEIMAR 124 4.00 36% 1.80    
4  NOTION TO TAPIT May04 Apr13 Mar31 Mar25 Jan13 (serey jr)PELTROCHE F 120 10.00    
5  STRINGFELLA Apr01 Mar18 Mar03 Feb10 Jan20 (ramos )LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 6.00 ★    
6  A FAREWELL YODEL Mar03 Feb10 Jan20 Jan13 Dec16 (hurley jac)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 15.00    
7  ROLL DEM BONES Mar16 Feb18 Jan27 Jan06 Dec01 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 124 4.50 32% 2.20    
8  BABY BULLDOG Apr14 Mar25 Mar11 Feb25 Feb04 (knoblauch-perez)BOCACHICA O 118 20.00    
9  BOP MARLEY Apr20 Aug11 Jul29 May26 May05 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 124 10.00    
10  LEG UP Apr13 Apr06 Mar25 Mar10 Feb25 (brown w)ARAUJO DENIS 124 2.50 ★    
 
CT-5   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($19.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKINLIMMARGARITAS Apr08 Mar04 Feb16 Jan06 Dec02 (gazzier)NUNEZ MAURICIO 118 10.00 ★    
2  AWESOME MOON May02 Apr15 Mar18 Mar02 Feb11 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  DENALI D'ORO Apr08 Mar11 Dec07 Nov18 Oct07 (dillow h)RODRIGUEZ V 122 8.00 17% 4.80    
4  APPEALING ROAD Apr21 Mar24 Mar04 Jan21 Jan06 (haynes erne)RAMGEET R 116 6.00    
5  PETTYFORURTHOUGHTS Apr20 Mar24 Mar04 Feb24 Nov16 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 122 15.00    
6  IT'S A REAL HONOR Apr15 Apr01 Mar11 Mar01 Jul30 (perez ernesto)WOODSON H 122 15.00 ★    
7  GOLDEN SALLY Mar24 Mar04 Feb11 Jan18 Jan06 (boggs jo)BUTTERFLY L 116 15.00    
8  IHEARTRAINACOMN Apr08 Mar18 Feb09 Jan20 Jan06 (dollinger-st)MARRERO CARLOS 122 3.50    
9  JUBA BABY Apr29 Mar18 Nov24 Oct13 Sep22 (curtis f)ARAUJO DENIS 122 1.20 56% 0.80    
 
CT-6   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($29.4K) 3 F PT- 9:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNALTERED         (stehr p)RODRIGUEZ V 122 15.00 ★    
  (by ALDRIN out of RITE OF PASSAGE by PRIZED)
2  GHOST OF ALCINA Mar31         (greaves ver)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 20.00    
  (by DIVINING ROD out of RAYO LASER by GHOSTZAPPER)
3  OPPO TACO         (walters d)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 4.00 5% 18.40    
  (by BANDBOX out of RIDDEN OUT by MAKIN)
SCR  GALLANT CREED Apr20 Mar31       (grams c)PELTROCHE F 122 1.80 26% 2.90    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of GALLANT CALLING by OVERDRIVEN)
5  HARLAN'S VALENTINE         (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 122 4.50 ★    
  (by ALDRIN out of HARLAN'S TREASURE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
6  POLISH THE DIAMOND Apr20 Mar31 Mar09 Jan26 Jan06 (mckee cynt)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 20.00    
  (by FIBER SONDE out of STONECUTTER by GRINDSTONE)
SCR  UNUSUALLY LUCKY         (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 5.00    
  (by MADEFROMLUCKY out of UNUSUAL WINNER by UNUSUAL HEAT)
8  SMOKIN LADY Apr07 Mar17 Feb16 Jan26 Jan06 (brown w)ARAUJO DENIS 122 6.00    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of PRINCESS KENDRA by BENCHMARK)
9  CARMELIZED Apr20 Mar09 Feb24 Feb16 Jan26 (lewis r)LARROSA G 122 20.00    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of TRULY THERESA by BWANA CHARLIE)
10  LIME STAR Apr20         (conn li)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 30.00    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of MIDNIGHT STAR by BOLD BADGETT)
11  COWGIRL ATTITUDE Apr28         (grams c)PELTROCHE F 122 3.50 48% 1.10    
  (by STREET MAGICIAN out of COWGIRL CUT by JUMP START)
SCR  LUZIA Mar31         (greaves ve)ALMODOVAR GERALD 122 12.00    
  (by FRIESAN FIRE out of GLORY GIRL by EDDINGTON)
 
CT-7   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($31.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRONG FIBER Jan12 Nov17 Nov04 Oct14 Oct01 (mckee cynth)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 10.00    
2  BUBBA GRUMP Dec08 Nov12 Oct27 Oct08 Jul27 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 120 5.00 7% 14.00    
3  GRUMPELSTILTSKIN Apr28 Apr07 Feb22 Feb08 Jan06 (pickett cr)ALMODOVAR GERALD 120 20.00    
4  PENGUIN POWER Apr15 Oct08 Sep17 Aug26 Jul16 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 1.00 68% 0.50    
SCR  FIBER STRONG Apr27 Apr07 Mar17 Jan12 Oct15 (runco jeff)RIVERA R 113 8.00    
6  GOLDEN KEY Feb02 Jan12 Nov24 Oct08 Sep14 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 3.50 ★    
7  BLACK CANDY Apr28 Mar30 Feb22 Feb11 Dec13 (tomczak mark)CECIL Y 120 20.00    
8  JEFFERSON NATIVE Nov03 Oct15 Sep17 Aug26 Aug13 (dollinger-s)RAMGEET R 120 12.00 ★    
 
CT-8   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP M/F PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHEZA RAJUN CAJUN Apr20 Mar15 Feb12 Jan21 Dec29 (brown keith)RAMGEET R 122 5.00    
2  HOWSAFEAREMYCOLORS Nov30 Oct28 Oct12 Sep15 Jun23 (walters david )ARAUJO DENIS 120 8.00 6% 14.40    
3  TWIN CAUSE Apr15 Mar17 Feb25 Dec14 Dec04 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 6.00    
4  STOPWATCHSONNY Apr20 Apr06 Feb25 Dec07 Nov17 (pickett crystal)BOCACHICA O 122 12.00 7% 12.80    
5  BRANDYURAFINEGIRL Feb11 Jan04 Dec17 Nov17 Apr13 (jones mich)ALMODOVAR GERALD 122 15.00    
6  JESS FOR KICKS Apr20 Feb23 Feb15 Jan26 Jan05 (davis billy)RODRIGUEZ V 122 20.00    
7  MARSANNE Apr06 Mar04 Feb08 Jan25 Jan01 (comi w)PELTROCHE F 118 3.00    
8  COWGIRL SHINE Mar31 Feb20 Jan18 Dec03 Nov16 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 118 2.50 35% 1.80    
9  BESTLA Mar17 Mar04 Jan07 Apr28 Apr07 (sandoval m)RIVERA R 113 12.00    
10  SUPERSNAKE Apr15 Mar30 Feb23 Feb11 Jan26 (murtaugh)BUTTERFLY L 122 20.00    
SCR  GREAT DEVOTION Apr20 Mar30 Feb15 Jan04 Dec03 (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 124 6.00 7% 12.40    
SCR  TAKE CHARGE LISA Apr20 Mar30 Mar16 Feb24 Feb15 (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 8.00    
SCR  AMERICAN BOUND May04 May10 May03 Apr18 Mar05 (cuttino m)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 2.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  C TWO Mar04 Feb12 Jan25 Dec29 Sep10 (atkins )NUNEZ ANAHI 122 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.