Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - January 03, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(4/5/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(4/5/3/1)-(4/3/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-2   WIN (4/5/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/3/1)-(4/5/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/3/1)-(4/5/3/1)-(4/5/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/3/1)-(4/3/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3/1)-(4/3/1/7)-(6/2/7/9/11) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-3   WIN (4/3/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/1/7)-(6/2/7/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1/7)-(6/2/7/9/11)-(1/3/4/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-4   WIN (6/2/7/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/2/7/9/11)-(6/2/7/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/2/7/9/11)-(6/2/7/9/11)-(6/2/7/9/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/2/7/9/11)-(1/3/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/7/9/11)-(1/3/4/8)-(4/9/10/1/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-5   WIN (1/3/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/4/8)-(1/3/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/4/8)-(1/3/4/8)-(1/3/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/4/8)-(4/9/10/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4/8)-(4/9/10/1/6)-(4/1/3/8/12) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-6   WIN (4/9/10/1/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/9/10/1/6)-(4/9/10/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/9/10/1/6)-(4/9/10/1/6)-(4/9/10/1/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/9/10/1/6)-(4/1/3/8/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/9/10/1/6)-(4/1/3/8/12)-(6/5/3/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-7   WIN (4/1/3/8/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/3/8/12)-(4/1/3/8/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/1/3/8/12)-(4/1/3/8/12)-(4/1/3/8/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/1/3/8/12)-(6/5/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3/8/12)-(6/5/3/4)-(9/7/8/5/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
TAM-8   WIN (6/5/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/3/4)-(6/5/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/3/4)-(6/5/3/4)-(6/5/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/3/4)-(9/7/8/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TAM-9   WIN (9/7/8/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/7/8/5/3)-(9/7/8/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/7/8/5/3)-(9/7/8/5/3)-(9/7/8/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   01/03/2025 5400ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($17K) 4UP ALL PT-12:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEN Dec22         (ward dennis)FERRER C 122 4.50 11% 8.10    
2  DETERMINED FREEDOM Dec11 Nov03 Oct26 Jan07   (smith r)IORIO MELISSA 122 6.00 7% 13.10    
3  WHISKEY OR WINE Oct16 Sep24 Sep11 Aug14 Jul16 (kintz matthe)CAMACHO SAMY 122 1.60 51% 0.90    
4  CLASS OF SIXTY TWO Nov29 Nov30       (lusk r)LINDSAY CHAD 122 6.00    
5  WESTDAKOTA Dec14 Sep28 Sep19 Sep07 Aug24 (rarick lynn)SPANABEL SKYLER 122 30.00    
SCR  LUCKY HEART Apr13 Jan17       (marrero nestor)HESS SARA 115 20.00    
7  FLAT CAP Dec15 Nov28 Nov08 Oct18 Aug17 (mcgoey monica)MARIN SAMUEL 122 2.00    
 
TAM-2   01/03/2025 5400ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 4UP M/F PT-12:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POLA OF TROUBLE Dec22 Dec04 Nov20 Sep29 Aug30 (ochoa )ROJAS EDUARDO 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  BACHELORETTE Dec22 Dec06 Nov20 Oct25 Oct11 (moysey chelsey)COTTO L 118 6.00    
3  LOVE UNLIMITED Dec22 Dec06 Aug29 Aug17 Jul27 (hernandez enr)GONZALEZ ALEX 118 4.50 17% 5.00    
4  ROUBAIX Jul11 May29 May03 Jan26 Dec29 (richards renaldo)LEON SONNY 118 2.00 35% 1.80    
5  HUMOR SENSE Dec21 Nov20 Nov03 Oct13 Sep05 (ochoa gerard)MENESES MARCOS 122 1.50 22% 3.60    
6  MOON ROSE Dec22 Dec04 Aug30 Aug04 Jul21 (dobber arnoud )MARIN SAMUEL 118 12.00    
7  LAUGHINTOTHEBANK Dec13 Nov29 Sep25 Sep05 Aug22 (rarick lynn)SPANABEL SKYLER 118 30.00    
 
TAM-3   01/03/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OSCAR GAZE Oct21 Sep08 Aug18 Jul14 Jun30 (dini mike)LEON SONNY 122 3.00 9% 10.10    
2  SET THE PACE Dec11 Nov23 Sep23 Sep07 Jul05 (arnett g)MARIN SAMUEL 122 6.00    
3  LADY DOMINANCE Dec11 Aug17 Jul27 Jun21 May05 (schuh tim)BRACHO A 122 5.00 27% 2.70    
4  NUMERIC Dec13 Dec04 Oct27 Oct06 Aug30 (crichton r)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 115 2.50 33% 2.10    
5  WOODS HOLE Dec11 Sep19 Sep05 Aug16 Jul18 (dimmett james)FERRER C 122 4.50    
6  DRILL'S VALENTINE Dec13 Nov15 Sep07 Aug11 Jul14 (sano antonio)MENESES MARCOS 122 4.00    
7  AUBURN Dec21 Dec11 May01 Apr19 Sep25 (lusk brian)GONZALEZ E 112 30.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-4   01/03/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($18K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING RAMOS Dec20 Jul27 Jul12 May25 May04 (o'connell kathle)FERRER C 122 5.00    
2  CATATUMBO Dec24 Nov23 Oct21 Oct08 Sep24 (barron rory)CAMACHO SAMY 122 6.00 8% 11.30    
3  LATIN SPICE Dec13 Oct29 Oct15 Sep23 Sep11 (cahill steve)MENESES MARCOS 122 20.00    
SCR  CASTAGNO Nov02 Oct18 Oct06 Sep17 Aug02 (gallegos j)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 122 6.00    
5  H C HOLIDAY Nov01 Oct11 Aug31 Aug11 Jul21 (wright michae)SANTOS ADEMAR 122 4.50    
6  KARTANO Aug10 Jun29 Apr20 Feb28 Jan26 (d'angelo jose )MARIN SAMUEL 122 3.00 61% 0.60    
7  NAMESAKE Jun28 Jun08 May04 Apr06 Mar14 (delgado jo)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 112 4.00 6% 15.80    
8  REDISUR Nov29 Sep25 Sep07 Aug29 Aug11 (rarick lynn)SPANABEL SKYLER 122 30.00    
9  NATIVE THUNDER Dec13 Nov29 Oct11 Sep07 Jul03 (carrascojr vic)HIRALDO JOHN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  ERIC THE SALESMAN Jul27 May04 Apr21 Mar29 Mar13 (roque eli)RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 122 30.00    
11  RUNNING RIGHT BY U Dec20 Dec13 Nov20 Oct27 Oct17 (simone micha)BATISTA A 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ALMASHRIQ Dec01 Nov06 Oct16 Sep30 Sep23 (cascallares nes)BAYS BROOKE 115 30.00    
 
TAM-5   01/03/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($54.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OZARA (IRE) Mar30 Mar02 Jan06 Dec09 Oct27 (cleme)DIAZ RAFAEL 118 1.20 59% 0.70    
2  LALOBA FEROZ Nov23 Sep08 Aug11 May04 Apr26 (cascallares ne)COTTO L 118 15.00    
3  LOUDER THAN WORDS Oct15 Oct02 Sep05 Aug21 Jul18 (granitz anthon)CAMACHO SAMY 118 6.00 10% 9.00    
4  DAMASO Dec18 Aug31 Aug17 Jul04 Jun02 (o'connell kathl)CENTENO E 118 3.50 8% 11.90    
SCR  NO WAY IT'S TODAY (GB) Oct26 Sep15 Jul01 Jun09 Mar22 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 118 20.00    
6  MOHAWK TRAIL Nov08 Oct17 Mar24 Mar02 Sep02 (danner k)GALLARDO A 118 4.00    
7  PACHOLLI (URU) Nov17 Sep21       (parra hernan)GIL CIPRIANO 118 30.00    
8  SENSITIVITY Jun28 Jun02 May04 Nov25 Jul23 (d'angelo jose )MARIN SAMUEL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-6   01/03/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3 F PT- 3:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DYSTOPIAN         (hamm timothy)MENESES MARCOS 119 10.00 11% 8.00    
2  SHE STOPPED SHORT Dec07 Nov20 Oct30 Sep08 Aug22 (campbell joel)LEON SONNY 119 3.50    
3  JENN SWEET JENN Sep09 Aug14 Jul23     (ri)LUNA PAUL 119 30.00    
4  GLAMOURCENTS Jul19 Jun09 May19     (lightner)GALLARDO A 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
5  RAN THE RED Nov29 Sep21       (rodriguez dar)MORALES PABLO 119 6.00    
6  MISS INTERPATATION         (sacco gregory)IORIO MELISSA 119 8.00 11% 8.40    
7  PRINCESS MIA Oct12 Sep20 Aug31 Jul31   (avila car)CAMACHO SAMY 119 15.00    
8  NADJAMEANSBUSINESS Dec20 Dec07 Oct24 Sep26   (campbell jo)QUINONEZ ALONSO 119 20.00    
9  LOOP OF HENLE         (dini mike)MARIN SAMUEL 119 6.00 13% 6.80    
10  VENEZUELAN FLOWER         (yanez reynaldo)GIL CIPRIANO 119 15.00 12% 7.20    
11  DERBY EFFORT Dec07 Oct12 Sep25 Aug17 Jul31 (smith g)CENTENO E 119 10.00    
12  STYLE IN TIME Dec20 Nov20       (arriagada jua)SANTOS ADEMAR 119 15.00    
SCR  SLEW CROWN Sep09 Aug14 Jul23     (rini anthony)FELICIANO R 119 3.50    
 
TAM-7   01/03/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($22K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PALACE LIGHTS Dec11 Sep29       (hamm )DIAZ RAFAEL 122 4.50 10% 9.40    
2  THEFORCEBEWITHYOU Apr04 Mar10 Feb14 Jan20 Nov18 (parra her)WILLIAMS JO 122 15.00    
3  THE GODDESS FACTOR Dec11         (o'connel)GALLARDO A 122 3.00 8% 11.80    
4  LITTLE MISS MUNNY Oct23 Oct01 Sep17 Sep04 Aug13 (laurato michael )MARTINEZ W 122 4.50 50% 1.00    
5  JAMMER INSURANCE Sep17 Jun18       (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 122 30.00    
6  GHOSTS LIL SECRET Aug11 Jul21 Jun07 Apr05   (donaldson debr)MBATHA LUCKY 115 8.00    
7  ELECTRIC RUNNER Jul21 Jun27 Apr28 Apr19 Mar13 (manchan c)HESS SARA 113 30.00    
8  BONITA BREEZE Oct19 Sep06 Jul20 Apr19   (yanez r)FERRER C 122 10.00 7% 13.40    
9  LUCKY IN LOVE Dec21 Nov30 Nov06 Oct24 Oct12 (simone michael)HIRALDO JOHN 122 20.00    
10  FOREVER AGAIN Dec21 Nov30 Oct24 Sep01 Aug16 (schuh tim)MENESES MARCOS 122 3.50    
11  SECORD Nov30 Sep28 Sep13 Aug17 Jul27 (orantes y)RODRIGUEZ ANTHONY 120 20.00    
12  JULIETA'S GIRL         (cascallares n)IORIO MELISSA 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
TAM-8   01/03/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($53K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHISKEY PARK Oct12 Jul27 Jul06     (joseph saffie )CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.00    
2  SAN COSTANTINO Dec11 Nov29 Sep24 Sep06 Aug12 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 118 12.00    
3  MACHISMO Aug18 Jul03 Jun02 May12 Dec27 (cahill steve)MENESES MARCOS 118 15.00 12% 7.50    
4  POMPOUS PRINCE Nov29 Nov13 Nov01 Sep23 Aug25 (ferraro anth)HIRALDO JOHN 118 15.00 6% 14.60    
5  LIFE IS PRECIOUS Dec11 Nov20 Nov01 Sep29 Aug04 (bennett gerald )CENTENO E 118 4.00 12% 7.30    
6  PRIVATE DESIRE Dec02 Nov05 Sep16 Jul29   (sacco gregory )MARIN SAMUEL 118 1.60 42% 1.40    
7  CROCODILEHUNTER Aug03 Jul04 Jun08 May18 Jan31 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 15.00    
8  CRUISING DEREK Dec11 Sep01 Aug09 Jul28 Jul13 (mazza joseph )IORIO MELISSA 118 15.00    
 
TAM-9   01/03/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($53K) 3 ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPEROR D'ORO Nov29         (avila carlo)LEON SONNY 119 30.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of HOPEFUL JOY by KITTEN'S JOY)
2  MR MILES Dec07 Aug17       (ochoa gerard)MENESES MARCOS 119 10.00    
  (by CUPID out of SPUN RIBBON by HARD SPUN)
3  IRON THE MONEY         (cleme)DIAZ RAFAEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of MISS CENTERFOLD by TIZNOW)
4  SERENDIBITE Oct27         (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 119 20.00    
  (by CURLIN out of SOLERINA by POWERSCOURT (GB))
5  CHANNELSIDE         (motion grah)MORALES PABLO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of STEP ASIDE BOYS by QUIET AMERICAN)
6  MISCHIEVOUS HAN Dec07 Nov16       (parra hernan)GIL CIPRIANO 119 20.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of MISCHIEVOUS MAUDE by INTO MISCHIEF)
7  RELATIVE VALUE (GB)         (brown c)CAMACHO SAMY 119 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by BLUE POINT out of BLIND FAITH by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
8  SKY MASTERSON Dec07 Nov03 Sep22 Aug29 Aug01 (contessa g)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 119 4.00 16% 5.20    
  (by THE FACTOR out of KITTY MADDNES by COURAGEOUS CAT)
9  GONCORA (GB)         (brown ch)GALLARDO A 119 1.80 29% 2.40    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SPARKLE by GLOBE)
10  HIGHLAND TIGER Dec07         (motion graham)CENTENO E 119 15.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of CANDY KITTY by LEMON DROP KID)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.