Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Lone Star Park
Thursday - April 18, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
LS-1   WIN (5/8/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/7/1)-(5/8/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/7/1)-(5/8/7/1)-(5/8/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/7/1)-(1/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
LS-2   WIN (1/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/2)-(1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/3/2)-(7/1/2/3)-(3/5/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
LS-3   WIN (7/1/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/2/3)-(7/1/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/2/3)-(7/1/2/3)-(7/1/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/2/3)-(3/5/6)-(1/9/3/10/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
LS-4   WIN (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
LS-5   WIN (1/9/3/10/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/9/3/10/6)-(1/9/3/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/9/3/10/6)-(1/9/3/10/6)-(1/9/3/10/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
LS-6   WIN (4/9/7/1/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/9/7/1/6)-(4/9/7/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/9/7/1/6)-(4/9/7/1/6)-(4/9/7/1/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (4/9/7/1/6)-(8/1/2/3)-(4/7/10/9/3) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
LS-7   WIN (8/1/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/2/3)-(8/1/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/2/3)-(8/1/2/3)-(8/1/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/2/3)-(4/7/10/9/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
LS-8   WIN (4/7/10/9/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/10/9/3)-(4/7/10/9/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/10/9/3)-(4/7/10/9/3)-(4/7/10/9/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
LS-1   04/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC11 FAST Bluebonnet Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLOSING ACT Sep03 Jul13 Jun11 May11   (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 112 2.50 8% 12.20    
  (by MUNNINGS out of EVENING SHOW by DEVONGATE)
2  REASON OVER RICHES Apr07 Mar08 Jan26 Nov24 Oct27 (davidson br)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 20.00    
  (by BRODY'S CAUSE out of TUT'S TREASURE by UNTUTTABLE)
3  IZATIZ Mar23 Feb17 Dec02 Nov11 Oct21 (hebert matt)CABRERA DAVID 118 4.50    
  (by MY GOLDEN SONG out of TIZ TIZ by TIZNOW)
4  RECLUSIVE Mar23 Mar01 Feb09 Jan20 Jul01 (h)BRIDGMOHAN MARLO 118 5.00    
  (by FLAT OUT out of ROCKINTOTHERHYTHM by BROAD BRUSH)
5  TOO MUCH KIKI Mar23 Feb17 Jan27 Jan06 Dec14 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 118 3.50 56% 0.80    
  (by TOO MUCH BLING out of SOFT MUSIC by ACTION THIS DAY)
6  BLUSHING BELLE Mar23 Mar01 Jan28 Jan20 Sep18 (love)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 15.00    
  (by CONNECT out of BLUSHING BEAUTY by BLUSHING JOHN)
7  PEEK FACTOR Mar23 Mar10 Feb17 Jan20 Dec07 (peek kevin)QUINONEZ S 124 4.00 8% 12.10    
  (by TOO MUCH BLING out of SLIM'S SECRET by DESERT SECRET (IRE))
8  CITY GHOST Apr05 Mar03 Nov03 Jul02 May30 (johnson b)DIAZ RENE 116 6.00 8% 11.50    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of ZIP HER UP by CITY ZIP)
 
LS-2   04/18/2024 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY DRILLER Apr07 Jan27 Dec31 Nov18   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 1.80 26% 2.90    
2  ROMINA C         (padilla carl)WISEMAN ISAIAH 118 15.00 14% 6.00    
3  ELSIE JANE         (padilla a)DIEGO V 118 12.00 26% 2.90    
4  CATHOLIC SUE Mar28 Feb24 Jan26 Dec16   (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 118 2.50    
5  SNOWBIRD Mar22 Mar07 Feb02 Jan12 Oct11 (ashford ra)GONZALEZ ELVIN 118 8.00    
6  CINCO GAL Mar22 Mar15 Feb10 Jan20 Nov10 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 118 2.00    
 
LS-3   04/18/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENTUCKY ICE Mar30 Mar15 Jan28 Dec08 Nov17 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 2.50 20% 4.00    
2  MIDNIGHT MONEY Mar09 Nov24 Oct19 Sep22 Nov21 (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 124 4.50 9% 9.90    
3  CLASSIC RUNNER Apr05 Mar09 Mar01 Feb19 Feb09 (govea cesar)ALVAREZ L 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  CINCO MAJESTIC Mar09 Mar01 Jan19 Jan12 Nov20 (silva miguel)DIAZ RENE 118 8.00    
5  D W STRONG Feb24 Feb08 Dec01 Oct27 Aug19 (butler ke)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 124 15.00    
6  MESSAGE DISCIPLINE Apr05 Mar09 Feb09 Jan27 Jan05 (gelner jayd)WETHEY JR 124 4.00    
7  MO TAP Mar22 Mar02 Dec07 Nov09 Oct19 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 2.00 42% 1.40    
 
LS-4   04/18/2024 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AARON'S SPIRIT Feb11 Jan19 Dec16 Nov20 Oct19 (davidson sar)GONZALEZ ELVIN 124 4.00    
2  JUST OKIE Sep08 Aug18 Jun11 May10 Apr26 (padilla car)WETHEY JR 124 3.50    
3  DOSE'S DREAM Apr07 Mar24 Mar08 Feb11 Dec16 (b)BRIDGMOHAN MARLO 124 2.50 37% 1.70    
4  NOOGE Mar02 Feb11 Jun15 May20 Mar04 (mckinney kyndr)SANCHEZ OBED 124 15.00    
5  CROSSTIME         (whitton mark)SALAZAR TERESA 119 5.00 22% 3.50    
6  DETECTIVE BERNARDO Mar10 Feb11 Feb17 Jan21 Sep27 (roub)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 10.00 9% 10.60    
SCR  DO YOUR JOB Apr05 Mar01 Feb18 Nov18 Sep02 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 118 3.00    
 
LS-5   04/18/2024 3300ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($40.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPERIAL RED BIRD Mar16 Feb17 Jan26 Jan05 Nov13 (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 122 3.50 43% 1.40    
2  SPARRA Mar29 Mar03 Feb10 Jan26 Jun18 (b)BRIDGMOHAN MARLO 124 20.00    
3  OZZIES WINGS Y G Apr05 Mar16 Mar01 Feb17 Jan21 (torr)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 114 5.00 8% 10.90    
4  HELLO HELLO MISTER Apr05 Jun03 May13 Apr29 Apr16 (g)DE CRUZ 120 10.00    
5  HOLIDAY RUN Mar24 Mar03 Feb10 Jan13 Dec15 (ascencio )CEBALLOS FRANKLIN 122 30.00    
6  LUCKY PROMISE Mar09 Feb17 Jan26 Jan05 Dec02 (gustafson aus)CABRERA DAVID 120 4.50 5% 19.00    
7  JUST HANGIN RIDGE Mar24 Feb10 Jan12 Aug07 Jun09 (kotara ronald)BURGOS SAMUEL 120 20.00    
8  CAPTAINS COVE Mar24 Jan12 Dec19 Nov22 Oct27 (butler ke)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 120 15.00    
9  CINCO RICHIE Jul28 Jul03 Jun10 May28 Apr22 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 120 3.00 14% 6.10    
10  BLINGO Mar03 Feb17 Jan26 Jan05 Dec18 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 124 4.00 6% 16.50    
SCR  RECKLESS RED Apr07 Mar09 Feb17 Feb03 Jan05 (davidson sar)GONZALEZ ELVIN 124 12.00    
SCR  AMERICAN FOREST Mar09 Jun02 May13 Apr13 Mar31 (pish danny)ALVAREZ L 120 10.00    
SCR  FORT HOOD Mar09 Feb17 Feb03 Jan12 Nov13 (davidson brent)ELLIOTT S 120 6.00    
 
LS-6   04/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEIZE THE TREASURE Mar15 Jan25 Dec29 Dec06 Nov17 (b)BRIDGMOHAN MARLO 124 15.00 8% 10.90    
2  ELUSIVE D'ORO Feb21 Feb01 Dec29 Dec06 Oct27 (broberg karl)GONZALEZ ELVIN 124 8.00    
3  TEXAS HOLDEM Mar09 Feb25 Feb11 Feb02 Jan12 (cald)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 8.00    
4  QUARTERBACK DAK Mar23 Feb25 Sep27 Sep09 Aug19 (caldwell r)DIAZ RENE 124 2.00 26% 2.90    
5  WORDS OF WISDOM Mar24 Mar10 Feb18 Dec07 Nov18 (davidson sar)PIVARAL GERBER 124 15.00    
6  NAUTICAL MOON Mar29 Mar16 Feb24 Dec09 Nov20 (bravo franci)ALVAREZ L 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  BOBBY BRINKLEY Mar23 Feb17 Dec14 Nov14 Oct12 (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 124 3.00 19% 4.40    
8  FEDERAL HILL (ARG) Mar08 Feb16 Jan26 Jan05 Nov03 (cravens ii)DIEGO V 124 6.00    
9  MALIBU S S Mar16 Feb25 Feb18 Feb02 Dec17 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 5.00 22% 3.50    
 
LS-7   04/18/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 3 ALL PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIND HUNTER Apr06         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 4.50 21% 3.70    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of QUIPPERY by FOREST WILDCAT)
2  MASTER OF DISGUISE Feb23 Feb09 Jan06 Nov26 Nov02 (diodoro rob)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 3.00 15% 5.50    
  (by MASTERY out of SENDA by SCAT DADDY)
3  DEACON JONES Mar23 Jan27 Dec31 Dec09 Nov17 (ortiz jav)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BREAKING LUCKY out of LADY HEATHER by BRAHMS)
SCR  PHILANTHROPER Mar22 Mar01 Feb04 Jan07 Dec14 (calhoun will)ALVAREZ L 122 12.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of SENSEU'VBEENGONE by STREET SENSE)
5  NEW BERN Apr06 Sep14 Aug26 Aug13   (asmussen m)ELLIOTT S 122 5.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of SUE'S GOOD NEWS by WOODMAN)
SCR  MACHO GRANDE Mar22 Feb25 Jan07 Nov24 Nov03 (eoff terry)WETHEY JR 122 4.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of ARTISTICDIFFERENCE by ESKENDEREYA)
7  THE OX Mar22 Mar03 Feb18 Jun18   (whitton mark)SALAZAR TERESA 117 30.00    
  (by OXBOW out of JUMPED THE HARBOR by JUMP START)
8  CORREDOR Apr06 Feb18       (young e)CABRERA DAVID 122 2.50 42% 1.40    
  (by KLIMT out of MY FOOLISH HEART by SKY MESA)
9  UKRAINE STRONG Oct03 Aug09       (silva miguel)GONZALEZ ELVIN 122 15.00    
  (by MASTERY out of MISS IMPATIENT by PYRAMID PEAK)
 
LS-8   04/18/2024 4950ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($25K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT-10:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WITCH'S VOW Apr07 May06 Apr14 Mar04 Feb17 (guzman ad)CONTRERAS ALFREDO 124 15.00    
2  BIG WAVE JAMES Mar16 Feb02 Oct07 Sep23 Jun23 (eoff terry)WETHEY JR 124 15.00    
3  BAY BE GONE Apr07 Mar10 Feb18 Feb02 Jan12 (garza e)DIEGO V 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  FROM THE HEART Mar16 Feb18 Jan19 Oct21 Oct12 (ashford ra)GONZALEZ ELVIN 124 1.80 40% 1.50    
5  CANATLAN Mar17 Mar09 Feb23 Jan28 Jan06 (t)DE CRUZ 124 12.00    
6  CRAZY RIDGE Apr05 Mar02 Feb17 Jan21 Aug27 (kotara ronald)DIAZ RENE 124 15.00    
7  GOOD SWIMMER Apr07 Mar10 Feb18 Jan28 Feb19 (willis mindy)ELLIOTT S 124 3.50 16% 5.20    
8  SWAMPDRAINER Apr07 Mar08 Sep03 Aug10 Jul30 (pearson p)CEBALLOS FRANKLIN 124 30.00    
9  OPTIMAL TRIP Mar24 Feb18 Jan28 Jan07 Nov21 (rossi)MANRRIQUE JOSE 124 10.00 7% 12.50    
10  WHITEROSE JEWEL Apr07 Mar10 Feb18 Jan19 Oct06 (crav)VALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO 124 3.00 15% 5.80    
SCR  BOARD CERTIFIED Apr05 Mar22 Mar10 Feb18 Jan28 (davidson sarah)SANCHEZ OBED 124 15.00    
SCR  SUMMER LOVER Mar08 Feb16 Jan27 Jan04 Dec16 (govea cesar)ALVAREZ L 124 5.00    
SCR  HEIR TO GREATNESS Apr05 Mar15 Jan26 Jan05 Nov09 (broberg kar)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 10.00    
SCR  EMBOITE (IRE) Jan21 Dec23 Dec07 Jun17 Apr07 (gelner jayd)WETHEY JR 124 1.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.