Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Saturday - December 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-3   12/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($10K) Purse ($21.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISSCZECH Nov21 Oct09 Aug16 Jul31 Jun18 (eidschun gregor)CRUZ M 119 10.00    
2  BORN TO REIGN Nov07 Sep12 Jul23 Jun18 May21 (diodoro robertino)CARRENO J 122 3.50 16% 5.20    
3  RED PANTY NIGHT Nov05 Aug18 Jul02 Jun03 May08 (pierce michael )NEGRON LUIS 122 8.00 ★    
4  SEVEN POINTS Nov30 Oct23 Sep12 Aug20 Aug08 (kereluk ed)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 122 10.00    
5  MIDNIGHT GARDEN Nov07 Sep14 Aug21 Jul09 Jun18 (silva jr)LOPEZ KARLO 122 2.50 57% 0.80    
6  FOR LOVE NOT MONEY Nov14 Aug27 Jun12 May20 Mar20 (evans justi)MARTI ALEXANDER 122 5.00    
7  SUNDANCE STAR Nov16 Sep15 Jul31 Jun25 May26 (vanwinkle davi)LINDSAY CHAD 122 8.00 ★    
8  BOLD REY Nov23 Nov09 Sep18 Aug20 Jun16 (hernandez m)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 4.00 ★    
 
TUP-4   12/17/2022 4950ft TURF RC0 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($20.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUSTER BURNS Apr23 Apr15 Feb20 Jan22   (williams om)WILLIAMS AJHARI 121 20.00    
2  CHIEF GOVERNOR Aug31 Jan24       (allred jeff)NEGRON LUIS 124 5.00 15% 5.90    
3  NOTACRY Sep15 Aug25 Jul28 May25 May03 (kenney ryan)LOPEZ KARLO 121 6.00    
4  LITTLE RED RIFLE Oct01 Sep21 Aug19 Aug02 Jun08 (howe s)ANAYA V 121 3.00 9% 10.20    
5  ROYAL AIR FORCE Sep25 Aug14 Jul24 Jul10   (krasner cindy)CORBETT W 121 8.00    
6  INCREDIBE MO Aug29 Aug06 May07 Apr27 Mar18 (whitehouse w)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  SWEET SAVANT Apr19 Mar23 Feb13 Jan22   (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 121 3.50 42% 1.40    
8  COUSIN MARK Nov06 Oct21 Oct02 Sep18 Aug28 (kenney dan)CARRENO J 121 10.00    
9  MEGA MEAT Nov16         (story chad)MORALES ALLYSSA 121 8.00    
10  TAP THE BANK Nov16 Sep17 Sep11 Aug28 Aug14 (garcia valentin )MAWING A 124 12.00    
SCR  AMADMADWORLD Nov28 Nov09 Sep11 Aug26 Aug14 (torres-casas al)CRUZ M 121 12.00 7% 14.10    
SCR  PEACE TOUR Oct02 Aug18       (freeman r)ZUNINO L 121 8.00    
 
TUP-5   12/17/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($4.5K) Purse ($9.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOE DID IT         (o'brien danny)ANAYA V 124 15.00 6% 16.90    
2  ABERDEEN'S KNIGHT Nov16 Sep18 Sep09 Aug20 May14 (rosales jorge)LEON A 121 5.00 ★    
3  DEPUTY KNIGHT Nov30 Sep03 Apr14 Mar10 Feb14 (o'brien d)VALENZUELA A 124 20.00    
4  ATTORNEY LOUIS Nov30 Sep17 Sep11 Aug14 Aug05 (toye joe)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 121 6.00    
5  YOU'RE MY BOY KAT Nov28 Nov09 Jul16 Jun25 Apr24 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 121 8.00 20% 4.00    
6  FLYING WINCHESTER Nov30 Sep09       (peery debbie)MAWING A 124 4.00 20% 3.90    
7  MANFORALLSEASONS Nov30 Sep18 Sep03     (diodoro robertino)CARRENO J 121 10.00    
SCR  IOWA HAWKEYE Jan02         (allred jeff)SARMIENTO RIGO 121 3.00 30% 2.40    
9  BUMPY CUP Nov30         (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 121 15.00    
10  SARGE'S SERMON Jan12         (kenney ryan)HERNANDEZ HARRY 121 6.00    
11  GEBO Nov30 Nov16 Oct14 Sep17 Aug20 (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 121 8.00    
 
TUP-6   12/17/2022 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SWEET HONOR Nov21 Nov04 Sep15 Aug31 Jul30 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 4.00 26% 2.90    
2  BABE'S GOT APPEAL Nov14 Jul08 Jun12 May14   (crotts e)CARRENO J 124 8.00 5% 17.90    
3  NO KITTEN Nov14 Oct09 Sep14 Aug22 Aug14 (denny travi)WILLIAMS AJHARI 124 5.00 10% 9.30    
4  APPOINTED STAR Nov19 Nov07 Sep11 Aug20 Jul24 (potts ashl)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 10.00    
5  BIGGER THAN YOU Nov14 Aug08 Jul18 Jul04   (monteverde )MORALES ALLYSSA 124 20.00    
6  TOTHEMOONANDBACK Nov19 Nov07 Oct10 Sep30 Aug17 (lavanway day)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 12.00    
7  ELEMENTAL Nov19 Nov04 Sep07 Aug18 Aug04 (perkinson cc)LEON A 124 8.00    
8  IMA TROUBLE MAKER Nov14 Sep04 Aug13 Jan28 Jan10 (eikleberry kevi)VERGARA P 121 4.50 33% 2.00    
9  WRIGHT WINGED Nov14 Sep10 Aug08 Jun25 Jan17 (gutierrez jua)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 10.00    
10  WE ALL AGREE Nov25 Nov07 Sep19 Sep03 Jan28 (silva pa)VALDES ALEXIS 121 3.00 ★    
SCR  CAMEO SHORES Jul08 Jun17 Jun04 May22 Apr14 (toye joe)ANAYA V 124 10.00    
SCR  SONGOFTHEDESERT Nov14 Sep10 Aug22 Aug08 Apr28 (reyes norm)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 12.00    
 
TUP-7   12/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($13.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ATLANTIC PRINCESS Nov15 Oct05 Aug23 Jul27 May27 (axmaker cody )VALDES ALEXIS 122 6.00    
2  LE TUB Aug27 Aug06 Jul29 Jul16 Jun26 (toye joe)LOPEZ KARLO 122 5.00    
3  MCGOLDIE Sep05 Aug20 Jul31 Jul17 Jun26 (blea j)CONNING CRYSTAL 122 15.00    
4  ABBIE'S WAY Nov21 Nov07 Oct24 Aug27 Aug17 (valerio ra)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  CRIMINAL RECORD Nov19 Aug18 Jul17 Jul04 Jun12 (asprino alfr)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 4.00 12% 7.20    
6  DAZZLING MIST Nov26 Nov04 Sep19 Sep03 Aug15 (barraza rafael )VERGARA P 122 3.00 41% 1.40    
7  SUMMEROFTHESAMURAI Nov23 Nov04 Oct23 Aug30 Aug07 (valerio raymo)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 6.00    
8  HOLLYWOOD MISTRESS Oct15 Oct01 Sep18 Aug22 Aug07 (pearman jay)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 8.00 8% 11.40    
9  CONVINCE Oct29 Oct15 Oct01 Sep17 Jul30 (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 122 10.00 11% 8.30    
10  PALACE STAR Nov23 Nov04 Sep19 Sep03 Aug22 (perkins fra)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 15.00    
 
TUP-8   12/17/2022 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($15K) Purse ($21.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIGHT CRUISER Nov15 Oct06 Aug29 Aug15 Jul16 (eidschun gregor)CRUZ M 122 10.00    
2  BOSS NINE Nov09 Aug27 Aug19 Jul30 Jul08 (lucarelli fran)ENRIQUEZ D 119 4.50    
SCR  HANKY PRANKY Dec08 Oct16 Oct02 Sep18 Aug30 (ortiz sr)VERGARA P 119 12.00    
4  N. K. ROCKET MAN Nov15 May03 Mar21 Feb28   (morgan dan)YBARRA MICHAEL 122 3.00 28% 2.60    
5  THE GREEN CRUSADER Nov19 Aug24 Jul13 Jun18 May29 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 119 3.50 50% 1.00    
SCR  LIGHTNING STAR Nov23 Sep18 Aug05 Jul15 Jul02 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 20.00    
7  JOKER MATT Nov28 Nov15 Nov04 Aug31 Aug14 (martinez esteban)ZUNINO L 119 8.00 ★    
8  COASTAL WATERS Nov23 Nov15 Sep15 Sep04 Aug18 (lund valorie)MAWING A 122 6.00 ★    
9  SECRET POTION Oct31 Oct05 Aug27 Jul03   (hone bart)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 5.00    
10  ETU BABOU Dec01 Nov21 Oct08 Sep02 Aug20 (hedge rick)LUNA ELEMANIEL 117 20.00    
SCR  BODEMONSTER Nov28 Nov15 Sep24 Sep02 Aug20 (hedge rick)SARMIENTO RIGO 122 20.00    
SCR  HOODLUM Nov27 Oct28 Sep01 Aug04 Jul10 (ortiz man)KELLENBERGER KODY 119 4.50 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.