Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Saturday - April 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (1/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/2)-(1/6/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/6/2)-(1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/6/2)-(3/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2)-(3/2/4/5)-(4/5/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-2   WIN (3/2/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/4/5)-(3/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/4/5)-(3/2/4/5)-(3/2/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/4/5)-(4/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4/5)-(4/5/1)-(7/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CT-3   WIN (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/1)-(4/5/1/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/1)-(4/5/1/3/6)-(4/5/1/3/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/5/1)-(7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5/1)-(7/5)-(8/6/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CT-4   WIN (7/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/5)-(7/5/2/3/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (7/5)-(7/5/2/3/1)-(7/5/2/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5)-(8/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/5)-(8/6/5)-(10/4/3/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CT-5   WIN (8/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/5)-(8/6/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/6/5)-(8/6/5/1)-(8/6/5/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/6/5)-(10/4/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/5)-(10/4/3/6)-(4/8/1/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-6   WIN (10/4/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/4/3/6)-(10/4/3/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/4/3/6)-(10/4/3/6/7)-(10/4/3/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/4/3/6)-(4/8/1/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (10/4/3/6)-(4/8/1/9)-(10/3/5/8/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-7   WIN (4/8/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/1/9)-(4/8/1/9/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/8/1/9)-(4/8/1/9/5)-(4/8/1/9/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/8/1/9)-(10/3/5/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CT-8   WIN (10/3/5/8/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/3/5/8/4)-(10/3/5/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/3/5/8/4)-(10/3/5/8/4)-(10/3/5/8/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   04/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($33.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUBA'S NOTION Apr01 Feb17 Jan07 Dec03 Nov19 (petty kris)ALMODOVAR GERALD 120 3.50 30% 2.30    
2  HOT FUDGE SONDE Apr01 Feb17 Jan27 Jan06 Dec16 (johnson ja)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 4.00 17% 5.00    
3  NOID Apr01 Jan27 Jan06 Nov19 Oct14 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 124 10.00 ★    
4  ICING Mar18 Feb24 Feb08 Jan11 Dec08 (cash norm)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 1.60    
5  HUMPTY GRUMPTY Apr01 Mar11 Feb17 Jan06 Nov19 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 124 15.00    
6  C R'S MANDATE Apr01 Feb17 Jan27 Dec10 Nov12 (schiano-dic)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 3.00 27% 2.70    
7  SMALL FIELD Sep07 Aug29 Aug15 Aug02 Jul27 (huffman kenneth )ACOSTA D 120 15.00    
 
CT-2   04/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($21.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONLY GET'N BETTER Apr08 Mar11 Feb18 Feb01 Dec08 (shanley timothy)CECIL Y 116 6.00    
2  ADARA Apr08 Mar25 Feb18 Jan28 Jan07 (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 122 2.00 21% 3.80    
3  NET WORTH Apr10 Feb24 Jan21     (jones mich)ALMODOVAR GERALD 118 3.00 30% 2.30    
4  CRYPTIC CODE Mar09 Feb15 Jan25 Jan04 Nov16 (shanley mark)RODRIGUEZ V 124 2.50 14% 6.00    
5  BIG REDWHITEBLUE Apr08 Mar08 Feb27 Jan09 Dec19 (jones e)BAEZ M 117 10.00 7% 13.80    
6  CAN'T STOP MAXEY Mar25 Mar11 Feb16 Dec21   (joy kev)NUNEZ MAURICIO 116 12.00    
7  PRINCE'S REWARD Jan20 Sep29 Aug31 Aug10 Jun18 (oxendine adam)SIMPSON JASON 124 30.00    
8  SHAKIN IT BIG TIME Feb18 Jan28 Jan07 Dec08 Oct26 (oxendine adam)PELTROCHE F 124 15.00    
 
CT-3   04/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIR MEDAL Mar25 Mar16 Feb16 Jan19 Dec08 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 4.50 10% 9.20    
2  SPECTACULO Mar25 Feb16 Feb08 Jan07 Nov05 (mangual)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 8.00    
3  PONTICELLO Mar25 Feb16 Nov04 Oct14 Oct05 (racanelli mar)SIMPSON JASON 120 20.00 ★    
4  MACHEN'S RIDGE Apr06 Mar16 Jan27 Dec14 Nov23 (joy j)RODRIGUEZ V 124 5.00 40% 1.50    
5  JEFFERSON SECURITY Apr06 Mar02 Jan11 Sep24 Sep03 (grams )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 3.00 27% 2.70    
6  TYRY TYRANNOSAURUS Apr06 Mar09 Mar02 Feb16 Feb02 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 10.00 ★    
7  IN JUBALATION Jan07 Sep22 Apr27     (curtis f)ARAUJO DENIS 122 2.50    
8  CHASE LIL ME Mar25 Feb25 Feb08 Jan13 Nov30 (collins t)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 12.00    
SCR  MR. HOSTLER Mar25 Feb25 Nov04 Oct18 Oct11 (collins tim)PELTROCHE F 122 20.00    
 
CT-4   04/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($36.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SARGENT KOBE Mar31 Feb17 Jan26 Jan06 Dec14 (lane j)ADAMS L 113 15.00 ★    
2  PENGUIN PARADE Mar18 Feb22 Jan20 Dec16 Nov11 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 8.00 ★    
3  SPANGLISH Feb22 Jan20 Dec16 Oct14 Sep08 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 120 5.00 ★    
4  TIMMY Apr01 Feb25 Jan26 Dec08 Nov16 (gazzier k)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 20.00    
5  ONE NIGHT MIKE Mar18 Feb22 Jan20 Dec16 Nov16 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 120 2.00 10% 9.20    
6  THUNDERINREADYRICK Apr13 Feb22 Feb08 Jan07 Dec16 (bass w)RODRIGUEZ V 120 10.00    
7  HONEYQUIST Mar31 Dec03 Nov12 Oct08 Sep24 (farrior antho)TOLEDO JEVIAN 120 1.80 66% 0.50    
8  HAPPY YEARS Nov23 Nov02 Oct14 Sep08 Aug19 (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 10.00    
SCR  STRINGFELLA Apr01 Mar18 Mar03 Feb10 Jan20 (ramos m)RIOS-CONDE A 120 30.00    
 
CT-5   04/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($33.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANTIPOISON Apr14 Apr06 Mar17 Mar03 Feb18 (sanchez-sal)CONCEPCION AXEL 113 4.00 ★    
2  SAG HARBOR Apr01 Mar11 Feb08 Dec14 Oct14 (delong ben)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 10.00    
3  UNCAPTURED KING Mar31 Mar11 Jan27 Dec09 Oct29 (murdock stephen)ACOSTA D 120 15.00    
SCR  ESPRESSO LUNGO Mar19 Jan28 Jan07 Dec09 Nov11 (salazar marco)CRUZ ANGEL 120 20.00    
5  RIDICULOUS Apr01 Mar10 Feb18 Feb01 Jan11 (arias alfonso)PELTROCHE F 120 8.00 7% 13.50    
6  ROYAL THUNDER Apr01 Mar11 Feb22 Feb01 Jan16 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 120 4.50 22% 3.50    
7  FLAT CAT Jun04 May14 Apr29 Apr08 Mar19 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 5.00    
8  AUBURN MILL Apr01 Mar11 Feb09 Jan12 Dec14 (farrior an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 1.40 44% 1.20    
 
CT-6   04/22/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($32.7K) 3 ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WINDSOR'S STAR Mar24 Jan06 Dec14 Nov05 Oct12 (comi w)PELTROCHE F 122 6.00    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of LIANA STAR by LINE OF DAVID)
SCR  ROAD PUNCH Mar31         (armstrong l)RODRIGUEZ V 122 20.00    
  (by THREE CHOPT ROAD out of LOLIBOP by BOP)
3  DRUNK TEXT         (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 4.50 22% 3.50    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of INTOXICATING BELLE by STAY THIRSTY)
4  CHARITABLE WINDSOR Mar31         (petty kristy)ARAUJO DENIS 122 5.00 23% 3.30    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of CHARITABLE BOUND by CHARITABLE MAN)
5  LAST OF BAD BOYS Mar31         (hamlin kathlee)MONTANO JOSE 122 30.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of MISS BAD GIRL by FRIENDS LAKE)
6  ALDARIGHTTRICKS         (lewis r)CECIL Y 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALDRIN out of RETURN TRICK by PUT IT BACK)
7  JAZZ WITH DENIS         (sigler g)LARROSA G 122 12.00 ★    
  (by DENIS OF CORK out of JAZLYNN C by GONE ASTRAY)
8  JUBA'S HAT TRICK         (sigler ron)ALMODOVAR GERALD 122 8.00    
  (by JUBA out of TRICKY WINDSOR by WINDSOR CASTLE)
9  COURT TUDOR Mar30 Mar10 Feb17 Jan27   (kirlew lenwort)RIOS-CONDE A 122 30.00    
  (by SARATOGA SYNDICATE out of WORK WIFE by PHILANTHROPIST)
10  DUNCAN IDAHO         (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 1.20 29% 2.50    
  (by FIBER SONDE out of HOLY POW WOW by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  ONE CANDY CASTLE Mar30 Mar10       (petty kristy)BOCACHICA O 122 20.00    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of CANDY ONE by YANKEE VICTOR)
12  CRUSH 'N RUN Apr06 Mar23 Mar09 Feb15   (lewis r)LARROSA G 122 30.00    
  (by GATTOPARDO out of EXECUTIVE DRIVEN by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
 
CT-7   04/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Confucius Say Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NO CHANGE Mar11 Nov12 Oct08 Sep17 Aug26 (mckee cynth)MENDEZ MARSHALL 123 8.00 8% 11.60    
  (by FIBER SONDE out of LOOKS LIKE TROUBLE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
2  LATE IN THE GAME Apr08 Mar11 Feb18 Jan07 Dec14 (sigler g)LARROSA G 123 20.00    
  (by DENIS OF CORK out of CHARITABLE CARLY by CHARITABLE MAN)
3  CANDY INVASION Apr08 Nov12 Oct08 Sep17 Aug26 (petty kris)ALMODOVAR GERALD 123 15.00    
  (by NORMANDY INVASION out of COTTON CANDY by BANDINI)
4  MUAD'DIB Dec10 Nov12 Oct08 Aug26 Jul15 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 123 3.50 44% 1.30    
  (by FIBER SONDE out of HOLY POW WOW by INDIAN CHARLIE)
5  FREE SAILIN Mar30 Feb23 Dec10 Nov12 Oct08 (dacosta jason)DIAZ I 123 4.00 ★    
  (by FREEDOM CHILD out of KELA'S PRIDE by KELA)
6  ROYAL PAIN Mar31 Feb22 Feb08 Jan19 Dec16 (johnson ja)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 123 12.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of ROYAL PASSAGE by MINESHAFT)
7  JUNGLE BEAST Mar16 Feb18 Jan07 Nov12 Oct08 (contre)LOPEZ EDUARDO 123 12.00    
  (by GOLDEN YEARS out of JUNGLE DIAMOND by JUMP START)
8  SOCIAL CHIC Mar18 Feb09 Dec10 Nov03 Oct08 (runco c)ACOSTA D 123 4.50 20% 4.00    
  (by UPSTART out of TRES CHIC by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
9  NICO Mar18 Feb09 Jan12 Nov18 Nov03 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 123 5.00 5% 18.80    
  (by TRAPPE SHOT out of CLEFT IN THE ROCK by ARCH)
10  COASTAL MISSION Apr08 Mar18 Feb17 Jan20 Dec08 (runco c)ARAUJO DENIS 123 6.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of SMART CROWD by CROWD PLEASER)
SCR  BUBBA GRUMP Dec08 Nov12 Oct27 Oct08 Jul27 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 123 12.00    
  (by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL out of SHESAGRUMPTOO by LUFTIKUS)
 
CT-8   04/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP ALL PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXCALIBUR Mar31 Mar17 Feb17 Jan28 Jan06 (dove ke)ORTIZ ORLANDO 122 10.00    
2  CLOSE THE CASE Mar11 Feb22 Feb01 Jan11 Nov24 (reynolds jo)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 1.60    
3  LOST IN MANHATTAN Mar31 Mar09 Feb17 Jan12 Nov16 (farrior an)RIVERA R 115 5.00 14% 6.30    
4  FORT FORTITUDE Mar17 Feb18 Jan26 Jan07 Dec17 (pickett cr)ALMODOVAR GERALD 120 15.00 9% 10.40    
5  LADDIE LIAM Mar31 Jan27 Nov29 Oct22 Sep16 (racanelli mar)SIMPSON JASON 122 15.00 13% 6.60    
6  MY CANDY BIZ Mar31 Feb23 Feb01 Jan12 Nov17 (joy j)ACOSTA D 122 8.00    
7  KING NATE Apr02 Mar17 Jan28 Jan14 Dec24 (sillaman richard )HO WESLEY 122 10.00    
8  BEYOND THE VICTORY Mar31 Mar26 May15 Apr22 Apr02 (libertini)HERNANDEZ F 122 15.00 10% 9.40    
9  TOP HAT TREASON Apr01 Mar17 Mar10 Jan27 Jan06 (dollinger-st)MARRERO CARLOS 122 20.00    
10  HAPPY CHAMP Apr01 Mar10 Feb18 Jan28 Jun16 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 3.50 29% 2.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.