Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Monday - October 03, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   10/03/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED BOTTOM REBEL Sep20 Aug21 Aug01 Jul04 Jun25 (martinez a)WALES T 124 3.50 22% 3.50    
2  DIVA'S DIVA Sep13 Aug28 Aug21 Jul31 Jul12 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 ★    
3  GOODNIGHTLOVING Sep20 Sep13 Aug30 Jul25 Jul11 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 2.50 24% 3.20    
SCR  JUST LEAVE Sep20 Sep04 Aug30 Aug09   (hibdon n)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00    
5  LIL MISS DE BUY Sep27 Sep06 Aug28 Aug08 Jul25 (mitchell stetson)RAMOS B 121 10.00 20% 3.90    
6  HURRICANE FLORENCE Sep13 Aug22 Aug07 Jul17 Jul04 (mitchell ste)MARTIN A 124 12.00 ★    
 
ARP-4   10/03/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE BIG SHOW Sep19 Sep06 Jul03 Jun11 Apr23 (hibdon n)RAMOS B 120 2.50 38% 1.60    
2  OPTIMAL Sep20 Aug23 Jul26 Jul18 Jul05 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.50 16% 5.40    
3  CHICORY BLUE Sep26 Sep06 Aug23 Aug08 Jul24 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 ★    
SCR  MYSTIC WIND Sep27 Sep12 Sep04 Aug07 Jul24 (jenkins reed)AGUILAR DANIEL 121 8.00    
5  GRAYDAR'S DREAM Sep19 Sep05 Aug02 Jul19 Jun27 (rushton temple)WALES T 124 6.00 11% 8.00    
6  MORO CHARLIE Sep20 Aug23 Jul19 Jun21 May24 (rushton stacy)HERRERA HUGO 124 20.00 8% 11.80    
7  INFINITE JOY         (hall )ROSALES JUAN 121 30.00    
 
ARP-5   10/03/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($16.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SEGOVIANA Sep27 Sep13 Sep05 Aug23 Aug08 (hibdon n)HERRERA HUGO 124 15.00    
2  DERONDA Sep19 Aug26 Aug06 Jul22 Jun18 (dieter dalton)LUARK T 120 12.00 ★    
3  MONGOLIAN ROSE Sep13 Aug15 Jul31 Apr19 Mar24 (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 19% 4.30    
4  FASHIONABLY QUICK Sep11 Aug15 Jul18 Apr16 Mar24 (long vaughn)WALES T 120 6.00 ★    
5  AL'S PRINCESS Sep25 Aug30 Aug15 Aug02   (ibanez alb)GONZALEZ V 121 20.00    
6  MISS IZZY BEE Aug21 Jul31 Jul04     (parsons rile)BETHKE A 121 4.50 ★    
7  HATCHET GURL Sep25 Sep11 Aug20 Aug13 Jul23 (mitchell stetson)RAMOS B 124 8.00    
8  UNPLUCKED GEM Aug22 Jul31 Jul18 Jul04 Apr03 (rushton stacy)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50 51% 1.00    
 
ARP-6   10/03/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUT OF THE SKY Sep19 Aug30 Aug02 Jul18 Apr08 (jenkins reed)AGUILAR DANIEL 121 2.50 29% 2.40    
2  NEON DREAMS Sep06 Aug07 Jul11 Apr30 Apr15 (mitchell stetson)RAMOS B 124 4.50 8% 11.80    
3  OVER EXPOSED Aug22 Aug09 Jul25 Jul04 May20 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 6.00 8% 11.10    
4  DONNAS FINAL WORD Sep25 Sep13 Aug30 Aug09 Jul03 (mitchell stets)HERRERA HUGO 124 12.00    
5  LANKY LOU Sep19 Sep12 Aug23 Aug09   (marquez jose)MARTIN A 120 30.00    
6  D'WILD MUFFIN Aug22 Aug07 Jul11 Jun18 Jun12 (hibdon n)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 2.00 28% 2.60    
7  CALL THE SHOTS Sep20 Aug29 Jul30 Jun24 Jun12 (rushton stacy)WALES T 124 3.50    
8  HEY ROXY Sep13 Aug30 Jul18 Jun07 May23 (williams ste)BETHKE A 124 8.00    
SCR  EPSOM IMP Sep12 Aug22 Aug09 Jul25 Jul19 (jenkins l)HAAR NATHAN 121 10.00 6% 15.30    
10  THAT'S ALL RIGHT Sep27 Sep13 Aug30 Aug21 Jul02 (ibanez alb)GONZALEZ V 124 20.00    
11  MILLI STARR Sep19 Aug30 Aug21 Jul24 Jun17 (ness john)LUARK T 124 5.00    
 
ARP-7   10/03/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($10.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEAN CANNON Sep25 Sep06 Jul11 Jun27 Jun14 (williams ste)BETHKE A 124 12.00    
SCR  FELON (IRE) Sep05 Aug22 Aug09 Jul26 Jul12 (hancock david )HERRERA HUGO 124 4.50 ★    
3  YOUNG PHILLIP Sep20 Sep05 Aug01 Jul03 Jun10 (haar j)WALES T 124 10.00 10% 9.10    
4  DEJA CREW Sep12 Aug22 Aug09 Jul19 Jul05 (haar j)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  WEST COAST BROKER Oct01 Sep06 Aug28 Aug08 Jul26 (ibanez alb)GONZALEZ V 124 15.00    
6  GOLD LABEL Sep19 Aug30 Aug02 Jul19 Jul05 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 38% 1.60    
7  CATS GOTTA CHANCE Sep26 Sep06 Aug15 Jul25 Jun19 (long vaughn)RAMOS B 124 6.00 ★    
 
ARP-8   10/03/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CHIEFTESS Sep19 Sep06 Aug30 Jul26 Jul11 (muckey john)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 12.00    
2  STARLIGHT TWIST Aug31 Aug21 Aug11 Jun29 Jun18 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 ★    
3  ATOKA GIRL Sep19 Aug28 Aug07 Jul12 May20 (rushton temple)WALES T 124 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  GOLD PASS Sep25 Sep18 Sep11 Aug30 Aug07 (ness john)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 20.00    
SCR  TIZ WONDERFULLY Oct01 Sep15 Aug28 Aug11 Jul30 (muckey john)BETHKE A 124 2.50 71% 0.40    
6  RYRYSWEETIE Sep19 Aug30 Jul31 Jul18 Jun18 (coughlin chris)HERRERA HUGO 124 6.00    
7  AWESOME SUNSET Jun06 May25 May10 Apr12 Mar18 (williams s)GONZALEZ V 124 15.00    
SCR  DABBLIN CHANNEL Sep19 Aug30 Aug21 Jul31 Jul04 (mitchell ste)MARTIN A 124 10.00    
9  LA ROSA DRIVE Sep25 Sep12 Aug22 Jul31 Jul12 (chavez juan)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.50 ★    
10  BEHOLD THAT WORD Sep19 Sep04 Aug21 Jul04 May21 (mitchell stetson)RAMOS B 121 8.00 ★    
 
ARP-9   10/03/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($10K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO GUNS Sep23 Aug14 Jul23 Jul10 Jun06 (schnell don)CARDOSO DAVID 120 2.50 11% 7.80    
2  ROADSIDE Sep19 Sep06 Aug29 Jul31 Jul11 (kulow mark)MARTIN A 124 20.00    
3  YHA YHA Apr06 Mar14 Feb02 Jan17   (childs russell)HERRERA HUGO 124 15.00    
4  HOLDING PATTERN Sep04 Aug02 Jul04 May29 Apr22 (long vaughn)RAMOS B 124 6.00 ★    
5  TRICKY LEE Sep18 Aug23 Jul17 Jul03   (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 120 3.50 49% 1.00    
6  ROCKY JACK Sep18 Aug23 Jul18 Jul03   (martinez a)WALES T 120 4.50 8% 11.40    
7  WILD FIREMAKER Sep19 Aug28 Aug02 Jul12 Jun19 (ibanez alber)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 10.00    
8  KNOWYOUROPTIONS Sep06 Jul11 Jun12 May07 Apr23 (mitchell stets)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00 9% 10.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.