Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Thursday - September 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/4)-(6/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(6/4/5)-(3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-2   WIN (6/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/5)-(6/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/5)-(6/4/5)-(6/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/5)-(3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/4/5)-(3/4)-(1/2/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CT-3   WIN (3/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/4)-(3/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/4)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4)-(1/2/5)-(7/8/3/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CT-4   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(7/8/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(7/8/3/9)-(6/2/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-5   WIN (7/8/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/3/9)-(7/8/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/3/9)-(7/8/3/9)-(7/8/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/3/9)-(6/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/8/3/9)-(6/2/1)-(1/7/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-6   WIN (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/1)-(6/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/1)-(6/2/1)-(6/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/1)-(1/7/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/2/1)-(1/7/6)-(7/9/8) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CT-7   WIN (1/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/6)-(1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/6)-(7/9/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CT-8   WIN (7/9/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/9/8)-(7/9/1/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/9/8)-(7/9/1/8)-(7/9/1/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   09/28/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 2 F PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RAGAZZA MIA         (runco jeff )CONCEPCION AXEL 115 3.00    
  (by MOSLER out of THEGALTHATWASABOY by TIZNOW)
2  P B FOXY Sep14         (venham d)BATISTA C 120 20.00    
  (by WAR CORRESPONDENT out of POSEIDON'S BLUFF by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
3  YOU CAN'T WIN         (haynes m)PELTROCHE F 120 5.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of CRIMSON AND GOLD by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  HONEY PLEASE         (haynes m)RODRIGUEZ V 120 4.50 26% 2.80    
  (by FROSTED out of JADE D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  BROWN SUGA BABE Sep01         (jones e)HO WESLEY 120 6.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of ITSMYHONOR by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  HONKEY TONK TIME Aug20         (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 1.20 29% 2.50    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of LEGION OF MERIT by DANZIG)
 
CT-2   09/28/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REATA'S CASTLE Sep08 Jul29 Jul08 Jun16 May25 (collyer jamie)ADAMS L 113 12.00    
2  TURTLE DOVE Aug26 Jun30 Jun03 May11 Apr20 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 120 10.00    
3  MAKIN' GOLD Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jul21 Jul06 (campbell marsha)RODRIGUEZ V 118 2.50    
4  HARDLY EVER BETTER Sep08 Aug05 Aug19 Jul18 Jun18 (carlisle jo)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 1.80 13% 6.90    
5  JUBA BOUND Sep15 Aug25 Aug17 Aug04 Jul21 (petty kri)SANTIAGO WILFREDO 120 8.00 12% 7.10    
6  TEACHINTHERELEASE Sep08 Aug17 Jul21 Jun24 Jun03 (petty kristy)LARROSA G 118 2.00 48% 1.10    
 
CT-3   09/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANNY'S WINKSTER Sep14 Aug17 Jul27 Jul08 Jun22 (jones mic)BOCACHICA J 113 15.00    
SCR  VOICE OF NOW Sep01 Aug17 Jul27 Jul08 Jun09 (lucas antho)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 4.00 15% 5.90    
3  UNION LEAGUE Sep08 Aug25 Jul07 Apr15 Apr01 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 1.00 47% 1.10    
4  MISS YOU AJAX Sep08 Aug24 Aug11 Jul27 Jul13 (knoblauch-perez)BOCACHICA O 120 8.00 13% 6.50    
5  CAJUN FUN Aug26 Jun27 Apr21 Apr01 Mar11 (collins tim)PELTROCHE F 120 4.50    
6  COUNTRY CHARLIE Aug17 Jul27 Jul13 Jun21 Jun01 (deiter lynn)LARROSA G 120 20.00    
7  PLAYBOY ROY Sep08 Apr14 Mar23 Mar03 Feb09 (reynolds joan )ARAUJO DENIS 122 6.00    
 
CT-4   09/28/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($29.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUBA'S HAT TRICK Jul27 Jun09 May13 Apr22   (sigler g)LARROSA G 118 1.60 45% 1.20    
2  PAYMENGOLD Aug25 Aug04 Jul22 Jul06 Oct22 (johnson de)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 2.00 23% 3.40    
3  MINISTRY OF MAGIC Sep02 Jul27 May27 Aug26 Aug06 (rideout m)HO WESLEY 120 8.00    
4  BOSS E BOOGS Sep02 Jul27 Jul06 May27 May13 (wilhelm tab)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 5.00    
5  MARCHED Sep15 Aug18 Jul20 Jun25 Jun11 (kee j)RODRIGUEZ V 124 12.00 7% 12.90    
6  LORD OF CORK Aug25 Aug04 Jul21 Jun23 Jun02 (sigler ronald )ARAUJO DENIS 120 4.50    
 
CT-5   09/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAY THE SQUID Sep07 Aug05 Jul07 Jun18 Oct23 (nuesch patrick)ACOSTA D 119 15.00    
2  SMOKIN SMITTY Sep07 Aug11 Jul08 Jun22   (rideout anthony)RODRIGUEZ V 121 30.00    
3  TAKE AIM Sep07 Jul07 May27 Apr28 Apr08 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 121 3.50 5% 19.00    
4  SHAKIN IT BIG TIME Sep07 Aug19 Jul27 Jun30 Jun10 (shanley timothy)CECIL Y 122 15.00    
5  ROYAL AIR FORCE Sep07 Aug18 Jun17 May29 May05 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 124 1.60    
6  SCHMEAR Aug25 Aug10 Jul13 Jun16 May29 (viands stac)CONCEPCION AXEL 116 8.00    
7  GLOBALIZATION Sep02 Jul21 Jun18 Jun04   (stahlin john)LARROSA G 121 5.00 51% 1.00    
8  WAVE ACTION Aug19 Feb19 Jan21 Dec10   (farrior an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 121 6.00 21% 3.80    
9  GAMING SOUL Sep02 Aug10 Jul20 Jul07 Jun10 (garrido raul)MONTERREY R 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-6   09/28/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FROGGY THE GREMLIN Sep07 Jul29 Jun15 Feb18 Jan12 (mangual)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 5.00 20% 4.00    
2  PRIMETIME JET Jul14 May26 Apr21 Apr01 Mar10 (patterson kevin)ACOSTA D 122 4.50 25% 3.00    
3  RUNAWAY ROAD Aug27 Aug05 Jul09 Jun18 Apr08 (feliciano ben )ARAUJO DENIS 122 8.00    
4  HUEY DUEY Sep03 Jul29 May29 May22 May06 (comi ralph)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 6.00    
SCR  DOC ELM Sep07 Aug03 Jul14 May20 Apr21 (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 4.00    
6  THE ILLUSIONIST Aug31 Jul29 Jul08 Jun23 May26 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 2.00 33% 2.00    
7  THUNDERINREADYRICK Sep07 Jul21 Jun03 May13 Apr22 (bass curt)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 10.00    
8  FIFTY FIFTY Sep07 Jul08 Jun22 Oct15 Sep24 (mcdonald tim)BATISTA A 122 20.00    
 
CT-7   09/28/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELLA MELA Sep07 Aug24 Apr29 Apr14 Jan13 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 122 1.60 38% 1.60    
2  CASTLE TOY Sep14 Aug30 Aug24 Jul30 Jul06 (obed-letts ke)RIVERA JAVIER 122 15.00    
SCR  PURE NONSENSE Sep15 Aug26 Jul20 Jul07 May18 (gillespie a)CULLUM W 118 15.00    
4  EMBERLY Sep15 Sep07 Aug24 Aug10 Jul27 (ramos a)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 12.00    
5  SENTELLA Sep07 Jul27 Jul07 Jun15   (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 118 4.50    
6  SNOWY JUBA CAT Jul27 Jul07 May27 Dec08 Nov11 (bass curt)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 4.00 15% 5.60    
7  FANCY HER UP Sep07 Aug10 Jul07 Jun15 May27 (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 3.50 26% 2.90    
8  TATOR MADE Sep07 Aug24 Jul07     (rideout an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 118 12.00    
 
CT-8   09/28/2023 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOO TOO Aug17 Jun23 May26 May06 Apr13 (jones royland)ADAMS L 115 6.00 ★    
2  TO THE TOP Sep07 Aug17 Aug03 Jul21 Jun01 (king yolonda)BOCACHICA O 121 30.00    
SCR  MAGICAL SURPRISE         (walters da)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 3.50    
4  JUBA'S YANKEE ONE Sep07 Aug17 Jun23 May06 Apr14 (racanelli)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 30.00    
SCR  NEEDNOEXPLANATION Jul13 May26 Apr29 Apr06 Mar16 (bowman d)CECIL Y 124 12.00    
6  ROAD PUNCH May13 Mar31       (armstrong b)MCKENZIE CONNIE 114 20.00    
7  J. WICK Jul13 Jun23 May26 Apr13 Mar31 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 116 2.00 68% 0.50    
8  DOG TOWN ALLEN Sep08 Sep01 Aug17 Jul29   (harrison gle)MARRERO CARLOS 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  KING OF LUCK Sep07 Aug17 Jul28 Jul13 Jun16 (ramos m)RIOS-CONDE A 121 2.50 7% 13.60    
SCR  CHARTERED COURSE Sep07 Aug17 Apr14 Mar31 Mar10 (peltroche vane)CHILO MAXIMO 122 30.00    
11  IRISH FIRE Mar31 Mar10 Jun24 Jun16 May26 (atkins mi)BOCACHICA J 115 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.