Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Hawthorne
Thursday - July 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
HAW-1   WIN (5/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/6)-(5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/6)-(4/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6)-(4/3/5)-(6/2/3/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-2   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(6/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(6/2/3/7)-(6/7/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-3   WIN (6/2/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/7)-(6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/7)-(6/7/5)-(4/7/2/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-4   WIN (6/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/5)-(6/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/5)-(6/7/5)-(6/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/5)-(4/7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/7/5)-(4/7/2/3)-(6/1/4/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-5   WIN (4/7/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/2/3)-(4/7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/2/3)-(4/7/2/3)-(4/7/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/2/3)-(6/1/4/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/7/2/3)-(6/1/4/2)-(7/1/5/6) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
HAW-6   WIN (6/1/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/4/2)-(6/1/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/4/2)-(6/1/4/2)-(6/1/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/4/2)-(7/1/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
HAW-7   WIN (7/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/6)-(7/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/6)-(7/1/5/6)-(7/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
HAW-1   07/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($14K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HER GOLD MINE Jul16 Jul06 Jun11 Jun01 May04 (meraz antoni)GILES EMMANUEL 117 4.00    
2  ARCH FLYER Jul16 Jul06 Jun18 May28 May07 (zawitz jo)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
3  TAP N TWINE Jul06 Jun18 May28 May07 Apr16 (ryan a)TAVARES JAVIER 122 8.00    
4  RANK AND FILE Jul16 Jun29 Jun18 Jun04 May28 (hughes w)HERNANDEZ K 122 6.00    
5  GHAALEB'S MAGIC Jul06 Jun18 Jun01 May18 Apr22 (witthauer john)LEZCANO ABEL 122 2.00 34% 1.90    
6  COOKIN ROSES Jun04 May18 Mar26 Mar05 Dec17 (quinonez max)COLON H 122 5.00 17% 4.90    
 
HAW-2   07/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BASEBALL POLITICS May09 Apr22 Apr06 Mar16 Jan27 (manley stev)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 4.50    
2  TRY TRY AGAIN Jul12 Jun21 Jun04 May25 Apr23 (zawitz joel)HERNANDEZ K 122 8.00    
3  MEDICINE TAIL Jul13 Jun12 Apr29 Apr08 Mar18 (rosin w)ROMAN KEVIN 122 5.00 12% 7.50    
4  LATIN CASINO Jul05 Jun15 Jun03 Apr25 Apr13 (manley steve)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 4.00 63% 0.60    
5  GAME BOY BENNY Jun29 May19 Apr13 Feb10 Jan13 (winebaugh ch)TAVARES JAVIER 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  LYKAN Jun14 May25 Jan06 Oct01 Jul24 (mason ingrid)FELIX E 122 2.50    
7  YOU'RE IN COREY Jul08 Jun20 May27 May09 Apr23 (pompell r)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 8.00    
 
HAW-3   07/27/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEQUAYA Jul16 Jun15 Jun08 May18 Apr16 (cook brian)LEZCANO ABEL 117 5.00    
2  STOLICH Jul05 Jun27 Jun13 May11 Apr27 (witthauer jo)GILES EMMANUEL 113 4.00 29% 2.50    
3  WICKED SUPRISE Jul05 Jun15 May21 May04 Apr27 (winebaugh cher)COLON H 122 3.50 5% 17.90    
4  MASQUERADE BALL Jul06 Jun07 May11 Mar09 Feb24 (rosas rigo)ORTEGA O 122 15.00    
5  KING ZION Jul05 Jun15 Apr27 Apr02 Mar23 (perez manny)REYES FRANK 124 12.00    
6  BRODY'S FLY Jul19 Jul05 Apr06 Feb24 Jan26 (lopez elias)HERNANDEZ K 122 1.60 46% 1.20    
7  BLUE TEARDROPS Jul13 Jun20 May25 May11 Mar17 (manley stev)SANTIAGO VICTOR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
HAW-4   07/27/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($38K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RICKY'S BEST Dec30         (mitchell )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 15.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of SMILING GAMBLER by WILD GAMBLER)
2  ICE AXE Jul06 Jun15 May18 Mar15 Mar01 (perez manny)TAVARES JAVIER 124 3.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of YOU GO WEST GIRL by MR. GREELEY)
3  PAPA GEEB         (clay pat)LOPEZ A 124 12.00    
  (by NEW YEAR'S DAY out of CORNER THE MARKET by WITH DISTINCTION)
4  EIGHT MAY Jul06 Jun10 May20 Apr22 May07 (watkins jame)CENTENO ALEXIS 124 10.00    
  (by V. E. DAY out of CITY ROYALE by ROYAL ACADEMY)
5  MANEUVER Jul06         (perez manny)LEZCANO ABEL 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of YOU SHOULD BE HERE by NIAGARA CAUSEWAY)
6  MERLOTTI Jul06 Jun04 May04 Apr23 Mar26 (wainwright john)FELIX E 120 2.50 47% 1.10    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MISS JUNE by MORE THAN READY)
7  BOONE'S PATH Jul16 Jun22 Apr15 Mar25 Mar02 (young ter)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 2.00 25% 3.00    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of INDIAN CARLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
 
HAW-5   07/27/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($41K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST A WONDER Jun18 May20 Apr25 Apr09 Mar23 (manley stev)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 6.00    
2  JUJU'S SPECIALGIRL Jun10 Sep21 Sep08 Aug08 Jul11 (hernande)RODRIGUEZ A 117 4.50 17% 5.00    
3  RACEDAY ATTIRE Jul05 Jun11 Apr23 Apr02 Mar12 (witthauer john)LEZCANO ABEL 122 8.00 11% 7.70    
4  MY LIPS ARE SEALED Jun22 Jun01 Mar17 Feb18 Jan28 (block chris)EMIGH A 122 2.50 28% 2.50    
5  LIPLINER Jun18 Apr30 Mar23 Dec10 Oct08 (childers van)GILES EMMANUEL 117 5.00    
6  CHROME ATTACK Jun29 Jun08 Apr23 Dec18 Nov27 (childers van)TAVARES JAVIER 124 6.00    
7  PLUS CHIC Jul13 Jun07 Dec18 Nov25 Oct16 (boyce michel)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 3.50 20% 4.00    
 
HAW-6   07/27/2023 4290ft DIRT RC11 FAST Work All Week Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAVOD Mar09 Jan28 Jan06 Dec10 Nov13 (hartman chr)SANTIAGO VICTOR 119 4.50 17% 4.80    
  (by LEA out of WEEKEND CONNECTION by PULPIT)
2  NAVY SEAL (IRE) Jun11 May06 Apr22 Mar26 Feb05 (knott s)HERNANDEZ K 115 8.00 7% 12.50    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of COPPERELLE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
3  WENT WEST Jun11 Oct02 Feb21     (roussel loui)CENTENO ALEXIS 114 8.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SPECTACULAR SKY by SKY MESA)
4  W W CANDY Jun27 Jun14 May15 Apr30 Mar30 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 115 4.00 8% 12.10    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TINCA'S SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  MIDNIGHT ESCAPE Jul01 Jun14 May25 Apr30 Mar16 (hernandez javi)COLON H 114 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ENQUETE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  TAPE TO TAPE Jul03 Jun09 Apr29 Mar30 Feb26 (rivelli larry)EMIGH A 122 2.50 45% 1.20    
  (by UNCAPTURED out of TRIPPI HONOR by TRIPPI)
7  DEVIL'S TOWER Jul13 May26 Apr20 Mar24 Mar12 (hernande)RODRIGUEZ A 119 3.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of QUATREFOIL by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
HAW-7   07/27/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 GOOD Claiming ($20K) Purse ($26K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRANCIPANTS Jul12 Jun18 Jun04 May18 Apr27 (witthauer jo)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 6.00 26% 2.80    
2  WAY TOO SMARTE Jul06 Jun21 Jun11 May21 Apr25 (pompell r)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 6.00    
SCR  MORRIE'S JOY Jun22 May31 Oct23 Aug04 Jul17 (miller patt)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 10.00    
4  MIZZEN ASH Jun21 Jun06 May29 May10 Feb25 (granitz j)FELIX E 122 4.00    
5  COMMAND POINT Jun18 Jun04 May18 Mar08 Feb01 (block chr)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 3.50 19% 4.30    
6  TAPERINEA Jun21 May29 Mar11 Feb23 Jan14 (meraz antonio)HERNANDEZ K 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  CHARGE ACCOUNT Jun17 May21 Mar10 Feb17 Dec17 (gutierrez fa)TAVARES JAVIER 122 3.00 31% 2.30    
8  CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR Jul05 May26 Mar12 Jan16 Jan01 (rodriguez hugo)LEZCANO ABEL 122 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.