Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Emerald Downs
Saturday - July 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
EMD-1   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/2)-(6/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(6/1/3)-(3/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
EMD-2   WIN (6/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/3)-(6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/3)-(3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/1/3)-(3/2)-(4/8/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
EMD-3   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/2)-(4/8/1/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/2)-(4/8/1/5)-(8/9/5/7) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
EMD-4   WIN (4/8/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/1/5)-(4/8/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/1/5)-(4/8/1/5)-(4/8/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/8/1/5)-(8/9/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/8/1/5)-(8/9/5/7)-(3/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
EMD-5   WIN (8/9/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/5/7)-(8/9/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/9/5/7)-(8/9/5/7)-(8/9/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/9/5/7)-(3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/9/5/7)-(3/5/1)-(2/7/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
EMD-6   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/1)-(2/7/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
EMD-7   WIN (2/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/3)-(2/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/3)-(2/7/3)-(2/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
EMD-1   07/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($8.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TYCHE AWAITS YOU Jul01 Jun18 Jun03 May21 Mar09 (crowe shelly)NEGRON LUIS 125 3.50    
2  MISCHIEF MAMA Jul07 Jun11 Jun04 Apr29 Apr18 (alvarez sergio)ENRIQUEZ D 125 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  PARTY POLICE Jul02 Jun18 May27 Apr25 Apr12 (kereluk edward)RADKE K 125 3.00    
4  HEART RIVER Jul02 Jun16 Apr18 Mar19 Feb16 (nunnally jennif)CRUZ M 125 2.50 69% 0.50    
SCR  FOGGY BOTTOM Jun18 May06 Nov11 Oct21 Oct01 (simkins rosi)OROZCO E 125 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  JACANA Jul02 Jun11 May21 Feb15 Jan30 (navarro jose)MONTALVO C 125 4.00    
 
EMD-2   07/15/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOCAL RED Jul01 Jun17 May28 Apr01 Mar06 (gibson vince)CRUZ M 125 2.50 31% 2.20    
2  MARKSMAN ON TARGET Jul01 Jun17 Jun03 Oct16 Oct08 (bean rob)AMADOR RUIZ 123 12.00    
3  STREET DEMAND Jul03 Jun24 Jun03 Oct16 Oct07 (bean a)RADKE K 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  FORTY SMOOCHES Jun09 May20 Sep10 Aug27 Jul31 (cooper kay)OROZCO E 123 3.00    
5  WARRIORS HERO Jul01 Jun17 May29 May20 Mar07 (pierce micha)SARMIENTO RIGO 123 4.00    
6  REGULATION DAZED Jun11 May21 May13 Apr26 Apr12 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 119 1.80 44% 1.30    
 
EMD-3   07/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($24K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RHODESIA Jun25 May28 Dec16     (soranno jill)VALDES ALEXIS 123 15.00    
2  TABLE BAY Jun18 May27       (martinez)AMADOR RUIZ 119 3.50 31% 2.20    
3  DESHAMBEAU Jun25 May27 Sep18 Aug07 Jul10 (lucarelli frank)RADKE K 119 5.00 45% 1.20    
4  KAHALA Jun25 May21 Aug14 Jul17   (martinez david )CRUZ M 121 4.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT MOJO Jun25 May27 May13 Jan09 Nov28 (wenzel tom)MONTALVO C 123 0.80    
 
EMD-4   07/15/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24K) 2 F PT- 9:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALWAYS GALLANT         (martinez dav)SARMIENTO RIGO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GALLANT SON out of BULLYSIMA by HOLY BULL)
2  SHE'S A KRAKEN         (cooper kay)VALDES ALEXIS 119 5.00    
  (by NATIONHOOD out of DEJA VIEWS by FOREST CAMP)
SCR  COASTAL GIRL         (bullock steve)CRUZ M 119 5.00    
  (by COAST GUARD out of MS MOSCOW MATTIE by MATTY G)
4  FAR FAR AWAY         (wright blain)OROZCO E 119 2.50 36% 1.80    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of FLY FAR AWAY by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
5  MADAM PRESIDENT         (rodriguez saul)ANAYA V 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of CHAMPAGNEANDCAVIAR by VAN NISTELROOY)
6  SOLO UN BESO         (velasquez rigo)ENRIQUEZ D 119 8.00    
  (by DYNAMIC IMPACT out of ARLINGTON GETAWAY by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  ROCKIT A DAY Jun25         (martinez)AMADOR RUIZ 119 4.00    
  (by ATTA BOY ROY out of JACOBITA by FOREST WILDCAT)
8  UNBRIDLED VIOLET         (gibson vinc)ORTIZ A 119 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by OUTLASH out of BROOKIE GIRL by PROUD CITIZEN)
 
EMD-5   07/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($3.5K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STEPHEN JAMES Jul01 Jun18 Sep02 Aug13 Aug05 (pirone m)AMADOR RUIZ 122 20.00    
2  UNBRIDLED TIGER Jul03 Jun23 Jan24 Jan02 Nov23 (peery debbie)VALDES ALEXIS 122 15.00    
SCR  DENNARD Jul03 Jun09 Sep03 Aug21 Jul29 (essex charles)RADKE K 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  FRANKS FIX IT Jun18 Jun10 May28 May14 Apr08 (cruz pea)CRUZ M 122 8.00    
5  TRIBAL IMPACT Jun25 May20 May13 Apr04 Sep11 (garcia jesus)ZUNINO L 122 5.00 6% 16.60    
6  OUR EMPIRE Jun18 May29 May14 Mar11 Mar05 (bozell alan)ORTIZ A 125 6.00    
7  CANDIED LUTE Jun24 Jun09 Jun03 May20 Sep17 (simkins rosi)OROZCO E 122 6.00 6% 17.10    
8  J T'S A. T. M. Jun10 May28 Apr26 Apr04 Mar20 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 125 1.80 50% 1.00    
9  FAMOUS ROCK STAR Jul01 Jun18 May20 Mar21 Feb25 (rosales jorge)MONTALVO C 122 6.00 17% 4.90    
 
EMD-6   07/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($18.5K) 3UP ALL PT-10:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEAU MISCHIEF Jun25 May27 May14 Sep02 Aug12 (wright blain)OROZCO E 121 3.50 8% 11.00    
2  TIG Jun17 May27 Sep11 Aug19 Jul23 (simkins rosie)RADKE K 125 8.00    
3  EXECUTIVE CHEF Jul08 May28 May12 Apr23 Apr02 (wright b)AMADOR RUIZ 125 2.50 41% 1.40    
4  FIREWALKER Jul02 Jun23 Jun10 May27 May13 (belvoir howar)VALDES ALEXIS 125 3.50    
5  PESO Jul03 Jun10 May27 Aug18 Jul24 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 125 3.00 16% 5.20    
6  MISCHIEVOUSHOLIDAY Jun17 Jun03 Apr04 Mar18 Feb11 (alvarez sergio)ENRIQUEZ D 125 10.00    
 
EMD-7   07/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($8.5K) 3UP ALL PT-10:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEACHERSBUGSAROO Jun23 Jun09 May20 May06 Sep18 (lowe nick)RADKE K 125 2.50    
2  LET GEORGE DO IT Jul01 Jun04 May28 May20 Apr01 (gabriel luc)ORTIZ A 125 1.80 25% 3.00    
3  COLE'S DYNAMITE         (freeman v)NEGRON LUIS 121 8.00 21% 3.70    
4  CRAWLINGBACKTOYOU Jul09 Jun24 Jun11 May20 Apr01 (bean robert )SARMIENTO RIGO 121 20.00    
5  OUR HY ROLLER         (baze robert)ANAYA V 125 15.00    
SCR  SPARKS FLYIN Jun24 Jun04 May20     (rosales jorge)CRUZ M 121 3.50    
7  MR. BUGS Jul01         (boyd preston)ZACHERLE LOUIS 125 5.00 22% 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.