Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Friday - July 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (2/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/5/6)-(2/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/5/6)-(2/1/5/6)-(2/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/5/6)-(3/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5/6)-(3/7/2)-(7/4/6/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-2   WIN (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/2)-(3/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/2)-(3/7/2)-(3/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/2)-(7/4/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2)-(7/4/6/5)-(1/2/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-3   WIN (7/4/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/6/5)-(7/4/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/6/5)-(7/4/6/5)-(7/4/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/6/5)-(1/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6/5)-(1/2/7)-(2/1/4/9/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CT-4   WIN (1/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/7)-(1/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/7)-(1/2/7)-(1/2/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/7)-(2/1/4/9/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/2/7)-(2/1/4/9/6)-(2/6/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CT-5   WIN (2/1/4/9/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/1/4/9/6)-(2/1/4/9/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/1/4/9/6)-(2/1/4/9/6)-(2/1/4/9/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/1/4/9/6)-(2/6/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4/9/6)-(2/6/5/4)-(4/5/8/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-6   WIN (2/6/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4)-(2/6/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/5/4)-(4/5/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/6/5/4)-(4/5/8/1)-(6/8/5/1/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-7   WIN (4/5/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/8/1)-(4/5/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/8/1)-(4/5/8/1)-(4/5/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/8/1)-(6/8/5/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CT-8   WIN (6/8/5/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4)-(6/8/5/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   07/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHADES OF BLUE Mar04 Feb15 Sep26 Aug25 Jul14 (fulmer al)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 3.00 23% 3.40    
2  WAVERLEY Jun23 Jun10 May06 Apr02 Feb25 (bailes ro)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 2.00 50% 1.00    
3  LOOKING FOR FLARE May27 May07 Apr08 Aug27 Aug05 (butts e)LARROSA G 120 3.50    
4  UNBRIDLED IRISH Mar04 Feb11 Jan13 Dec29 Nov21 (pickett crystal)BOCACHICA O 124 8.00    
5  GERMANY JAYVO Jun02 May18 Apr28 Apr02 Mar05 (hillegass)BOCACHICA J 110 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  MORE TAJ Jun10 Apr20 Mar17 Feb25   (dollinger-sth)RIVERA JAVIER 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
7  SNOOZE BUTTON Jun10 May13 Mar05 Feb05   (mcmahon i)CRUZ ANGEL 120 4.50    
 
CT-2   07/14/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCLE REMI Jul09 Jun19 Jun09 May31 May15 (smith law)BOCACHICA J 112 12.00    
2  DOC ELM May20 Apr21 Mar10 Feb18 Feb02 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 117 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  DRINKWITHTHESTARS May05 Mar31 Mar17 Feb02 Jan12 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 1.00 51% 1.00    
4  MOTIVATED SPEAKER Apr14 Feb16 Jan25 Jan05 Dec09 (covello andrea )RODRIGUEZ V 122 20.00    
5  BARB'S PRIDE May25 May05 Apr14 Apr01 Mar12 (frock ch)BUTTERFLY L 118 15.00    
SCR  JUST GO WITH IT Jun03 May05 Apr14 Aug27   (kee willie )RAMGEET R 122 30.00    
7  PRIMETIME JET May26 Apr21 Apr01 Mar10 Jan27 (patterson kevin)ACOSTA D 122 1.80 25% 3.00    
 
CT-3   07/14/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIQUID LOUIE May12 Mar09 Feb17 Jan06 Dec02 (jackson l)CULLUM W 122 2.00    
2  HAPPY CHAMP Jun24 Jun15 Jun02 May13 Apr22 (brown w)CRUZ ANGEL 120 3.00    
3  MAKE WAY Jul01 May18 Apr27 Mar17 Feb23 (barber do)BOCACHICA J 112 30.00    
4  RIGHTEOUS MAN Jun24 May12 Mar25 Mar04 Feb15 (kirlew lenwor)RIVERA JAVIER 122 12.00 10% 8.70    
5  ENVISION SUCCESS Aug18 Jul28 May26 Mar24 Mar04 (hummer richar)ADAMS L 113 20.00 6% 16.90    
6  FIND YOUR BOAZ Jun15 Dec01 Oct27 Sep07 Aug18 (geris samuel )LOPEZ ANTONIO 120 30.00 8% 11.10    
7  CHARLIE POTATOES Jun24 Jun02 May13 Apr01 Feb22 (hurley jack)TROTMAN KEIMAR 122 2.50 45% 1.20    
8  LANTAU Jun24 May13 Apr27 Jul15 Jul03 (bailes ro)CONCEPCION AXEL 117 3.50    
 
CT-4   07/14/2023 2970ft DIRT RC6 MUDDY Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($21.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZ THE REASON Jun03 Apr20 Mar24 Mar01 Jan21 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 1.80 36% 1.70    
2  MY JUBA Jun24 May27 May18 May04 Apr01 (sanchez-salomon )CRUZ ANGEL 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
3  BACKSTREET AFFAIR Jul01 May18 Apr20 Apr01 Mar18 (lee a)CECIL Y 120 15.00    
SCR  CASTLE LIGHTS Jun02 May13 Feb25 Feb04 Jan14 (brown r)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 6.00    
5  REIGN ON AND ON Jun02 Apr13 Mar11 Feb10 Feb02 (huet k)MARRERO CARLOS 120 6.00    
6  DING DING Apr20 Mar24 Jan12 Oct01 Jul07 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 120 8.00    
7  TRUE HEIRESS Jun02 Apr14 Mar23 Mar02 Feb10 (gazzier k)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 5.00 17% 5.00    
 
CT-5   07/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($29.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUMPIN JACK BRASS Jun02 Feb24 Jan06     (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 118 2.50 24% 3.20    
  (by JUMP START out of BIT OF BRASS by DIXIE BRASS)
2  JUBASLILBALLERINA Jun02 May12 Apr07 Mar09 Feb16 (sigler g)LARROSA G 118 1.60 46% 1.20    
  (by JUBA out of MISTY BALLERINA by INTO MISCHIEF)
3  XTENDED STREAK Jun23 Jun10 May19     (lucas anthony)BOCACHICA O 118 8.00    
  (by UNBRIDLED ENERGY out of SNOW FROLIC by ARTAX)
4  SHEWEARSSTILETTOS Jun23 Jun02 May19 Apr28 Apr07 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 113 4.00 8% 11.50    
  (by EXCLUSIVE QUALITY out of SECRET TRACKER by CIMARRON SECRET)
5  HARLAN'S VALENTINE Jun02 May11       (contreras j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 118 30.00    
  (by ALDRIN out of HARLAN'S TREASURE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
6  CANDY LOVES HONEY Jun23 Jun01 Mar31 Jan26   (dillow h)RODRIGUEZ V 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EVANGELISM out of UNVEXED by ALBERTUS MAXIMUS)
7  LIME STAR Jun23 May11 Apr20     (conn linda )ESQUILIN J 118 30.00    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of MIDNIGHT STAR by BOLD BADGETT)
8  RUMORGOINGAROUND Jul01         (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 124 30.00    
  (by WINDSOR CASTLE out of WISH AHEAD by DEFRERE)
9  AFIRE         (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FRIESAN FIRE out of HOT SAUCE by PRIZED)
10  JUST HAVE FAITH Apr29 Apr07       (collins )BUTTERFLY L 118 15.00    
  (by WEIGELIA out of AWESOME MARKIZA by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  PORTIA'S HOPE Jun25 Jun06       (dixon geoffre)SIMPSON JASON 118 15.00    
  (by BALLADO'S GOLD out of LEGENDARY RIDGE by CACTUS RIDGE)
 
CT-6   07/14/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($15K) Purse ($27.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT ACT Jun28 Jun01 May17 Apr20 Apr01 (stites flin)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 4.00    
2  MR HOOVER Mar09 Feb17 Jan26 Oct22 Oct12 (brown w)MONTANO JOSE 120 2.50 40% 1.50    
3  UNCAPTURED STORM Jul08 Jun03 May12 Apr16 Mar25 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 116 6.00    
4  MISSIONSNINETYNINE Jun03 May12 Apr01 Mar11 Feb22 (brown w)CRUZ ANGEL 120 10.00 7% 13.50    
5  GOODLUCKCHUCK Jun18 Dec08 Nov05 Sep24 Aug27 (magee )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 6.00 14% 6.20    
6  MAXIMUM IMPACT May26 Apr21 Jan20 Jan14 Jan05 (cash norm)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 2.00 14% 6.20    
7  ACE NINE NINE Jun09 May18 May07 Apr14 Mar19 (dove jr)BOCACHICA O 120 12.00    
 
CT-7   07/14/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($15K) Purse ($26.7K) 3UP ALL PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FEARNOUGHT Jun23 Jun03 May13 Apr20 Apr01 (clatterbuck fre)RODRIGUEZ V 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  PRINCE OF FENTON Jun22 Jun02 May13 Apr01 Feb08 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 120 8.00    
3  STRONG HEART Jul07 May26 May05 Apr14 Mar25 (smith o)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 20.00    
4  ODIE Jun21 May23 Apr27 Mar13 Feb08 (patterson kevin)ACOSTA D 120 1.60 47% 1.10    
5  BAAGY Jun09 May14 Apr27 Apr01 Mar16 (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 3.00 28% 2.50    
6  FROG TOWN May18 Apr08 Feb20 Jan28 Jan07 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 116 3.50    
SCR  OVERLY CRITICAL Jun30 Jun09 May18 Apr01 Mar01 (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 122 15.00    
8  SHAMELESS RISK Jun30 Jun16 Apr27 Nov03 Oct13 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-8   07/14/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP M/F PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREAT DEVOTION Jun22 Jun01 Apr20 Mar30 Feb15 (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HARPER'S DO Jun28 Jun18 Apr15 Dec31 Dec10 (serey mario )WHITACRE GRANT 122 15.00    
3  MIDNIGHT PASS Jul08 Jun24 May12 Mar09 Feb24 (racanelli mar)SIMPSON JASON 120 12.00    
4  BESTLA Jul08 Jun01 May11 Mar17 Mar04 (sandoval )HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  WOODSONG'S CASTLE May05 Apr28 Apr13 Mar18 Mar04 (shanley timothy)BOCACHICA O 124 12.00 11% 7.90    
6  CHURCH KEY Jul03 Jun19 May21 Apr20 Mar30 (harrison )BOCACHICA J 114 1.60 46% 1.20    
7  MOJO MATTERS Jun15 Apr13 Mar30 Nov26 Nov05 (davis russell )MONTANO JOSE 122 12.00    
8  SISTER JOANN May27 May12 Apr29 Mar30 Feb18 (hess g)MORALES KELVIN 122 3.00 17% 5.00    
9  RISKSRHIGHPAYISLOW May12 Mar30 Mar04 Dec17 Nov26 (atkins michae)LOPEZ ANTONIO 122 20.00    
10  I'M A TOTAL DIVA Apr29 Jul01 Apr14 Mar17 Jan26 (mckee cynt)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.