Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Sunday - August 21, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   08/21/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 2 F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LETTER OF GOLD         (weaver george)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  POSITIVE MESSAGE (GB)         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 119 10.00    
3  HAY STACK         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
4  PLEASANT PASSAGE         (mcgaughey )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
5  COOKIE CRUMBS         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
6  TREASURED GEM Jul24         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 119 5.00 ★    
7  HOLA GATA Jul24         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
8  CORNINGSTONE Jul24 Jul08 Jun17     (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50 48% 1.10    
SCR  WELCOMETOMYWORLD         (atras rob)RIDER TBA 119 8.00    
SCR  MISINTENTION Jul31         (mott i)RIDER TBA 119 2.00    
 
SAR-2   08/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUSTIN SHOUT Jul28 Jul04 Apr21 Mar05 Jan01 (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 124 6.00 33% 2.10    
2  DEEP COVER Jun26 May21 Apr23 Jan14   (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 124 2.50    
3  DR. DUKE May28 Apr10 Mar09 Feb06 Jan09 (antonucci je)CASTELLANO J 122 10.00    
4  LADY'S GOLDEN GUY Jul04 May30 May02     (breed a)ALVARADO R 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  BREW PUB Jul24 May29 May14 Apr16 Mar20 (arenas marc)ALVARADO JUNIOR 126 20.00    
6  YARROW Jul17 Jun10 Apr28     (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 126 3.00    
7  PHANTOM SMOKE Jul24 Jun26       (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 122 1.60 38% 1.70    
SCR  EXCELLENT TIMING         (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 122 1.80    
SCR  QUICKFLASH Jul30 Jun11 May08 Mar20 Mar11 (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 2.00    
SCR  UNIQUE UNIONS Jul31 Jul08 Jun11 Apr23 Jan09 (schosberg richard)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00    
 
SAR-3   08/21/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VIRADIA Jun24 May23 Apr22 Feb20 Feb10 (englehar)SANTANA JR 124 4.00 ★    
1A  THAT IS KEY Jul04 Jun15 Jun02 Apr29 Mar06 (englehart)LEPAROUX R 124 4.00    
2  MY GIRL LEXI Jul21 Jun24 May19 Apr22 Apr07 (ferraro )DAVIS A 124 5.00    
3  FORTY SMOOTH Jan02         (levine bruce)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50 70% 0.40    
4  LINNY KATE Jul30 Jul02 Jun17 May15 Apr01 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 124 3.00    
5  NURSE RACHETT Jun21 May23 Apr25 Feb08   (camejo j)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  MISS PEPPINA Aug03 Jul26 Jul03 May19 Apr03 (cruz lenin)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 10.00    
7  RED PEPPER GRILL Jul11 Jun26 Jun04 Apr28 Mar27 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 124 4.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-4   08/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCOTTO Aug14 Jul16 Jun30 Jun16   (parker joseph)LUZZI J 122 10.00 9% 10.80    
2  VINCENT Jun11 May06 Apr02 Mar13 Feb21 (barrera oscar)CASTILLO AMIN 124 4.50 ★    
3  EL SEGUNDO Aug07 Apr20 Mar24     (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
4  ARTHURIAN Aug03 Jul12       (caramori caio)CARMOUCHE K 124 3.50    
5  MATTY'S MARAUDER Apr28 Apr01 Mar05 Feb19 Feb03 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  CAJUN COMMANDER Jul24 Jun30 May08 Apr15 Mar18 (barre)HERNANDEZ OMAR 115 6.00    
7  ICON Jul24 Jun23       (diodoro )SANTANA JR 122 2.50 62% 0.60    
8  NATURE BOY Jul28 Jun30 Jun02 Apr14 Mar13 (noda orlando)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
 
SAR-5   08/21/2022 5940ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($32K) Purse ($64K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REUX (GB) Jul10 Jun09       (kantarmaci )ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 20.00    
SCR  PIONEER SPIRIT Jul28 Jul22 Jun18 Apr21 Mar20 (kantarmaci )MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 20.00    
2  ATTENTIVE Jul14 May20       (kantarmaci m)CASTELLANO J 123 6.00 24% 3.20    
3  DEVAMANI (FR) May05 Mar26 Feb05     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  CRAFTY DADDY Jul17 Jun04       (persaud )GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 15.00    
5  HEALING Jul30 May20 Apr08 Feb12 Jan13 (joseph saffie )ROSARIO JOEL 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  GRAND JOURNEY Jul14 Jun25 Apr30 Mar26   (rodriguez rudy)ORTIZ L 123 4.50 20% 4.10    
7  THE LAST ZIP Jul30 Jul10 Feb24 Jan13   (abreu fern)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 12.00    
8  TIBERIUS MERCURIUS Jul14 Jul01 Apr23 Mar18 Feb12 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 8.00    
9  BATTALION Jun25 May28 Apr24 Feb10 Jan01 (klesaris ro)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 20.00    
10  MONARCHS GLEN (GB) Jun23 May05 Apr10 Mar12 Feb19 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 123 5.00    
SCR  REGAL SPEAKER Jul15 Jun03 Mar02 Jan05   (gargan danny)SAMUEL L 123 20.00    
SCR  LOCALLY OWNED Jul17 Jun11 May06     (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 123 3.00    
SCR  KUMAR Jul21 Jun03 May06 Apr09 Mar05 (rodriguez gust)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.50    
SCR  ROYAL TRYST Jul30 Jul14 Jun04 May08 Feb04 (arenas marcelo)RIDER TBA 125 5.00    
 
SAR-6   08/21/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($105K) 2 F PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GOOD SAM         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00    
2  GRAND LOVE         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 119 4.00    
SCR  GORMLEYESQUE Aug04         (catalano w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 20.00    
4  MRS. MACOMBER         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
5  RARIFY Jul24         (ward a)ORTIZ L 119 2.50 49% 1.00    
6  SPUN SPECIAL         (gyarmati lea)CASTELLANO J 119 15.00    
7  SPELTERINI Jul14         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
8  ROSIE'S ALIBI         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00    
9  PEAK POPULARITY         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-7   08/21/2022 7920ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUD PIE Jun03         (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 39% 1.60    
2  FOUNDER Aug06         (mott william )ORTIZ JR 122 8.00    
3  BALTHUS (IRE) Jun30 May20 Apr23     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.00 12% 7.30    
SCR  TIDE OF THE SEA Jul28 Jun03 May01 Apr02 Mar05 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 122 8.00    
5  KINENOS Jul31 Jul01 May05     (morley th)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM Jul28 May21 Jan30     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
7  REIGNING SPIRIT May21 Apr22 Mar20 Feb19   (stall m)ROSARIO JOEL 124 3.50 24% 3.20    
8  CIBOLIAN Jul30 Jun10 May21 Apr22   (brisset rodolph)CARMOUCHE K 122 8.00    
9  OFFLEE NAUGHTY Jul28 Jul01 Jun03 Mar12 Feb04 (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 122 12.00    
SCR  CLAYTNTHELIONHEART Aug11 Jun30 Jun05     (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 122 0.80    
 
SAR-8   08/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($115K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUVIES IN TIME Jul09 Jun10 Mar18 Feb06 Jan08 (rodriguez rudy )CARMOUCHE K 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  REPEALING Jul23 Jun18       (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60 64% 0.60    
3  AWESOME INDRA Jul23 Jun19 Apr23 Mar26 Feb27 (morey william)ORTIZ JR 124 6.00 9% 9.80    
4  CHLOE ROSE Jul16 Jun18 May27 Apr28 Mar04 (rodriguez gustavo)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00    
5  EXXALTRESS Mar19 Jan28       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 6.00 ★    
6  TO A T Aug07 Jul09 May07 Apr28 Mar31 (noda orlando)ROSARIO JOEL 124 10.00    
7  FIRING CAROL Jan20         (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 124 15.00    
8  BABA Jul09 Jun10 May27 Apr15 Mar18 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 3.00    
 
SAR-9   08/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($150K) 2 F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SICILIAN GRANDMA Aug04 Jul09       (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 120 20.00    
2  LOVE REIGNS (IRE) Apr29         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 122 2.00    
3  NO KAY NEVER (IRE) May30         (ward wesle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00    
4  KERRY Jul24 Jun05 May12     (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 122 6.00 ★    
SCR  GRAND OAK (IRE) Aug20 May20 Apr21     (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 122 8.00    
6  AZTEC NIGHTS Aug05         (catalano)SANTANA JR 122 10.00    
7  REDIFINED Jun30         (dutrow anthon)VELAZQUEZ R 122 8.00 ★    
8  DANSE MACABRE Jul13 Jun25       (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 ★    
9  SWEET HARMONY (IRE) Jul24 Jun04       (terranova jo)CASTELLANO J null      
10  MOTOWN MISCHIEF Jul24 May31       (hamm timothy)ORTIZ L 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-10   08/21/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IRONIC LADY         (o'brien keith)VELAZQUEZ R 118 20.00    
2  BAYOU WIND Jul04 Jun09 Apr30 Apr23 Feb11 (caramori)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 15.00 7% 14.20    
3  BELLESHAZZA Jul28 Jul03 Jun10 May20 Apr14 (sciacca gary)ROSARIO JOEL 118 10.00    
4  GEOMETRIQUE Jun30 Jun10 May13     (ribaudo robe)SAMUEL L 118 20.00    
5  EMPRESS THEODORA Apr08         (albertrani )MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 5.00    
6  MISCREANT Jul03 Jun09 May20     (ryerson james )ORTIZ L 118 10.00 9% 10.10    
7  HOPE OVER FEAR Jul30 Jun04       (abreu fernan)CASTELLANO J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  VAGARIES (IRE) Jun25         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 1.20 51% 1.00    
9  CANDLESTICK MAKER Jul22 May20 Apr14     (levine bru)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.50 9% 10.00    
10  LORDHEARMYPRAYER Aug06 Jul10 Jul01 Jun10 Jan14 (barrera oscar)CASTILLO AMIN 118 30.00    
11  RICELLE Jul28 Jun30 Jun10 May15   (legall r)DAVIS A 124 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.