Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - March 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (7/4/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/3/1)-(7/4/3/1/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/4/3/1)-(7/4/3/1/6)-(7/4/3/1/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/4/3/1)-(7/4/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/4/3/1)-(7/4/6/5)-(1/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
TAM-2   WIN (7/4/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/6/5)-(7/4/6/5/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/4/6/5)-(7/4/6/5/3)-(7/4/6/5/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/4/6/5)-(1/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6/5)-(1/4)-(2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TAM-3   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/4/6/2/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (1/4)-(1/4/6/2/3)-(1/4/6/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4)-(2/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (1/4)-(2/4)-(5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
TAM-4   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4)-(2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/4)-(5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (2/4)-(5)-(3/6/5/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
TAM-5   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (5)-(5/2/8) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (5)-(5/2/8)-(5/2/8) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (5)-(3/6/5/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5)-(3/6/5/7)-(4/1/5/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TAM-6   WIN (3/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/7)-(3/6/5/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/7)-(3/6/5/7/4)-(3/6/5/7/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/6/5/7)-(4/1/5/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5/7)-(4/1/5/2)-(2/5/7/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-7   WIN (4/1/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/5/2)-(4/1/5/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/1/5/2)-(4/1/5/2/6)-(4/1/5/2/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/1/5/2)-(2/5/7/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5/2)-(2/5/7/8)-(1/2/7/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-8   WIN (2/5/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/7/8)-(2/5/7/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/5/7/8)-(2/5/7/8/4)-(2/5/7/8/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/5/7/8)-(1/2/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TAM-9   WIN (1/2/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/7/3)-(1/2/7/3/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/2/7/3)-(1/2/7/3/6)-(1/2/7/3/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   03/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($17K) 3 F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITRIEDSELLINGHER         (o'connell kath)MARIN SAMUEL 120 6.00 6% 16.30    
2  BEAST BUNNY Feb26 Jan25 Dec22     (fisher david)FELICIANO R 120 6.00    
3  REBEL CONSORT Feb26 Dec28 Oct05 Sep06 Aug09 (carrascojr v)ARROYO S 120 3.50 13% 6.70    
4  WATER FIGHT Feb17 Jan06 Nov30 Oct12 Aug28 (posadas pedr)BATISTA A 120 4.50 30% 2.40    
5  NOBLE ATTITUDE Feb25 Feb12 Jan18     (manchan bertr)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 12.00    
6  REASONABLY LOVELY Jan27 Dec28 Dec04     (o'connell kath)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.00 ★    
7  ONE TOUGH DAME Feb26 Feb12 Jan25 Dec28 Dec03 (bennett s)FERRER C 120 2.50 30% 2.30    
 
TAM-2   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.5K) 4UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JLO CAN DANCE Feb10 Jan27 Jan08 Dec16 Sep19 (poole jeffrey)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 3.00    
2  DIXIELAND DANCER Mar08 Feb19 Feb03 Jan15 Dec22 (machado an)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 120 12.00    
3  DONYA'S MAGIC Jan25 Jan07 Nov25 Oct21 Sep23 (wilson tony)MARIN SAMUEL 120 6.00 ★    
4  KENYA SUN Feb12 Jan28 Jan11 Dec23 Dec10 (cascallares ne)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.00 18% 4.40    
5  TEE UP Dec28 Nov26 May29 Apr30 Apr01 (tsirigotis jam)COTTO L 120 15.00 5% 17.60    
6  RAPIDAMENTE Feb26 Feb10 Jan28 Jan08 Aug31 (lopez r)ALICEA JEREMY 113 4.50 11% 8.50    
7  NURSE JUDY Jan15 Dec28 Dec16 Sep18 Aug19 (gatis chris)MENESES MARCOS 120 2.00 39% 1.60    
 
TAM-3   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 F PT- 1:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHUT IT CALI Mar01         (smith r)SOSA LAUREANO 113 1.40 54% 0.90    
2  LUNITA Mar01 Feb10 Jan21 Dec31   (lopez r)ALICEA JEREMY 113 6.00 ★    
3  REDHAIREDCOLLEEN Nov02 Oct05 Sep14 Aug23 Aug07 (bennett s)FERRER C 120 8.00 ★    
4  COWGIRLLOVER         (arnett g)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.50 24% 3.10    
5  JAZHARA Feb26         (carrascojr vi)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 12.00    
6  IMAZETA Mar04         (sacco gregory )SUAREZ ANGEL 120 3.50 ★    
7  WIFEY MATERIAL Feb22 Feb03 Jan20     (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 120 15.00    
8  RED DELICIOUS Jan13 Dec30 Dec17 Jul15 May26 (cascallares n)LOZADA CARLOS 120 20.00    
 
TAM-4   03/17/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOC CARSON Mar04 Feb11 Jan21 Jan01   (cordero antoni)MBATHA LUCKY 115 30.00    
2  CATCH ON EMOTIONAL         (dominguez lui)MORALES PABLO 125 2.00 54% 0.90    
3  BIG ROWDY DAN         (lopez r)SOSA LAUREANO 118 10.00    
4  LITTLE BIG Feb11 Jan01 Sep16 Aug19 Jul16 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 125 3.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  INCREDIBLE BILL May25 Apr20 Mar05     (padilla tim)FERRER C 125 1.80 6% 14.50    
6  BELIEVE AMERICA         (sweezey j)RODRIGUEZ A 125 6.00 ★    
7  MISS INEZ Feb19 Feb04 Jan11 Apr09 Mar20 (cascallare)ORDONEZ R 118 30.00 ★    
 
TAM-5   03/17/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($32K) Purse ($28K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ELUSIVE AMELIA May01 Mar09 Feb25 Jan17 Jan05 (padilla tim)FERRER C 119 3.50 ★    
2  PARIS PEACOCK (IRE) Jan26 Oct15       (proctor thoma)MORALES PABLO 119 3.00 ★    
3  CHICK'S SHADOW Jan21 Dec31 Oct26 Aug29 Aug02 (rodriguez )ALONSO LUIS 119 15.00    
SCR  ALL GOOD TIMES Feb15 Dec17 Sep29 Sep18 Aug06 (arnett j)GALLARDO A 119 4.00 ★    
5  PANAMA RED (IRE) Feb04         (delacour arnaud)CENTENO E 119 1.20 61% 0.60    
6  ANADOR (FR) Feb18 Jan15 Dec24 Nov26 Oct20 (dini mike)MARIN SAMUEL 119 5.00    
7  STRIKING CHROME Feb18 Aug06 Jul17 Feb23 Jan28 (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 119 8.00    
8  MY LIPS ARE SEALED Feb18 Jan28 Nov18 Oct20 Sep25 (gulick j)GALLARDO A 119 4.50 ★    
 
TAM-6   03/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($32K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHISTLEWHILEYOUMOW Feb22 Feb01 Jan11 Dec17 Oct30 (posadas pedro)MARIN SAMUEL 118 12.00    
2  CAJUN CASANOVA Mar03 Feb01 Sep06 Aug16 Jul04 (ferraro anth)COA J 118 6.00    
3  BUMPERDOO Jan25 Jan06 Dec17 Nov05 Oct20 (arnett j)GALLARDO A 118 2.00 23% 3.40    
4  TUNE IN Jul31 Jun25 Apr29 Mar12 Feb09 (alvarado diane)CENTENO E 118 3.50 ★    
5  LONGSHADOW Sep08 Aug17 Jul27     (danner kelsey)MORALES PABLO 118 5.00 22% 3.60    
6  CHICKS DIG SCARS Feb22 Jan13 Dec14 Nov06 Oct15 (arnett g)CAMACHO SAMY 118 3.00 22% 3.60    
7  SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (CHI) Jul12         (sanchez amad)MENESES MARCOS 118 12.00 7% 12.90    
 
TAM-7   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST PLAIN ORNERY May04 Mar13 Jan16     (arriagada juan)CAMACHO SAMY 123 4.50 29% 2.40    
2  CAMINERO Feb15 Jan26 Jan01 Dec17 Nov17 (cheeks katy)MORALES PABLO 123 3.50 6% 16.10    
3  MO WINE PLEASE Feb04 Oct13 Sep29 Sep07 Aug11 (galvan baltazar)LOPEZ E 123 12.00    
4  IMPERIAL BIRD Feb15 Jan15 Dec23 Dec07 Apr06 (wilson tony)MARIN SAMUEL 123 1.80 30% 2.30    
5  ASSERT DOMINANCE Feb22 Feb11 May21 May06 Apr22 (mcgoey monica)JIMENEZ MANNY 123 5.00 13% 6.40    
6  THAT'S MY BOI TOY Feb22 Feb04 Jan15 Jan07 Dec22 (posadas pedr)BATISTA A 123 6.00 ★    
SCR  COMMANDER KEITH Feb15 Jan27 Jul01 Jun19 Apr08 (lusk r)SOSA LAUREANO 116 20.00    
SCR  OXBOW WIND Feb02 Aug03 Jul08 Jun23 Jun04 (ramirez l)SUAREZ ANGEL 123 15.00    
 
TAM-8   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($17K) 3 ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL ABOUT LUCKY Mar04 Jan12 Sep17 Aug17 Jul10 (rodriguez an)MENESES MARCOS 120 12.00    
2  CRUISING DEREK Feb24 Jan18 Dec30 Nov25 Sep18 (mazza w)SUAREZ ANGEL 120 3.50 37% 1.70    
3  NOT A PRAYER Oct28         (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.00    
4  SMART DRESSER Feb24         (hamm timothy)ARROYO S 120 5.00 ★    
5  BARAK Feb26 Feb05 Dec10 Nov26 Nov05 (raven ke)GALLARDO A 120 2.00 13% 6.50    
SCR  O ROMEO Mar09         (ramirez l)COTTO L 120 6.00    
7  ROAD MINISTER         (chain pearl)SUAREZ JESUS 120 20.00 13% 6.50    
8  VIDA FINA         (pimental john)VILLA-GOMEZ H 120 15.00 10% 9.20    
 
TAM-9   03/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($17.1K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING OF CHAOS Feb19 Feb01 Jan13 Dec30 Dec02 (nunn doug)RODRIGUEZ A 121 4.50 35% 1.80    
2  SUMMER PALACE Nov30 Oct19 Oct03 Sep15 Aug30 (cheeks katy)MORALES PABLO 119 6.00 25% 2.90    
3  CHINA BEACH Feb22 Feb05 Dec21 Dec02 Sep07 (brown dona)ALONSO LUIS 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  IN HONOR OF ARTIE Feb22 Feb01 Dec09 Sep30 Aug28 (dominguez luis)MENDEZ KEVIN 119 30.00    
5  SIMMS Feb19 Jan29 Jan13 Dec31 Dec09 (bowersock mari)CASTANON L 119 8.00    
6  BATTLE CREEK Feb22 May13 Mar19 Feb25 Feb06 (granitz anthon)CAMACHO SAMY 119 3.50 ★    
7  SHIMMERING LEROID Mar03 Feb15 Jan27 Dec21 Dec02 (mccarthy brenda )FERRER C 123 4.50 12% 7.30    
8  MIDNIGHT TEQUILA Feb22 Feb01 Dec21 Nov21 Nov07 (munoz carlos)ARROYO S 119 10.00    
9  EIGHT WEEKS LONG Feb19 Jan29 Aug24 Aug08 May18 (ferraro )GALLARDO A 119 8.00    
10  BARAHIN Feb01 Jan11 Dec31 Dec21 Nov30 (escobar alison)COTTO L 119 30.00    
SCR  WINTER'S GHOST Feb15 Jan20 Dec14 Oct14 Sep18 (rigattieri jo)MORALES PABLO 119 6.00    
SCR  PAPA JIMMY Feb24 Feb01 Jan20 Jan11 Dec21 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 119 15.00    
SCR  PUTMAN Feb22 Jan29 Nov26 Oct07 Jul30 (vazquez eduard)MARIN SAMUEL 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.