Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/30/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($62K) 3 ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN HERO Jul15 Jun30 Jun10 May14 Apr14 (flint s)GRAHAM J 120 4.50 8% 11.00    
2  PLAY ACTION PASS Jun04 May15 Apr16     (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 45% 1.20    
3  ICE BLAST Jul09 Jun11 May19 Apr07 Feb20 (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 5.00    
4  RED RUN Jul02 Jun04 May07 Apr02 Jan30 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.20 ★    
5  PINEDALE Jun17 May27 Apr03 Mar18 Feb19 (bahena fer)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 ★    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE Jul02 May28 Apr16 Feb18   (amoss m)DIAZ RENE 113 1.80 17% 4.80    
 
ELP-2   07/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 2 ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP NOTE         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 4.00 9% 10.30    
2  HUASTECO         (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 5.00 ★    
3  AMERICAN BLAZE         (colebrook)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 8% 12.10    
4  NOBLE CONNECTION         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 49% 1.00    
5  MIDNIGHT DREAMING Jun26 Jun08       (amoss tho)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00    
6  DREAMFACTOR Jul16         (stinson)DE CRUZ 119 20.00    
7  CONNECT ME         (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 8% 12.10    
 
ELP-3   07/30/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIX MISSIONS         (brisset rodolphe)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 15% 5.90    
SCR  SUNDANCE         (brisset rodol)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00    
2  URGENT FURY         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.50 ★    
3  PRIVATE CREED         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 ★    
4  GOLDEN REIGN         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00    
SCR  TALKSCHEAP         (alessi james)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 20.00    
6  IRONSIDES Jul02         (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 8% 11.10    
SCR  DUST STORM Jun27         (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
8  FITZEA         (drury tho)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
SCR  BERRETTINI         (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
10  THE BOOKKEEPER         (divito james)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
SCR  RETAINED Jul08         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.00 56% 0.80    
 
ELP-4   07/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TITLE SHOT Jul16         (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
2  LIVINGONTULSATIME Jun07 May17 Apr20 Apr05 Mar21 (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 10.00    
3  LAMUTANAATTY Jul10 Mar19       (moquett e)DIAZ RENE 117 8.00    
4  FLINT RIDGE         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 13% 7.00    
5  COMISKEY PARK Jul16 Jun18 Jun03 May14 Apr23 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 6.00 ★    
6  LET MY PEOPLE GO Jul02 May22 Apr29 Mar27   (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
7  MR SIPPI Jul04 Jun11 May29 May04   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.50 24% 3.20    
8  SILK TRADE Jul01 May04 Apr10     (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 11% 8.00    
 
ELP-5   07/30/2022 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BULLSEYE BUN Jun23         (mckeever andr)GARCIA MARTIN 122 1.80 73% 0.40    
2  PROTONIC POWER Jul17 Jun24 May12 Mar31 Mar04 (rodriguez eduardo)EMIGH A 118 10.00    
3  ABSAM Jul15 Jun18 Jun02 Apr27 Jan15 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00 ★    
4  HIGHESTDISTINCTION Jun26 Jun02 Mar12 Jan22   (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 ★    
5  SHADY MCGEE (IRE) May21 Mar12 Feb13     (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 2.50 ★    
6  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Jun18 Apr24 Feb13 Jan21 Jan02 (barnett c)COURT K 122 15.00    
7  DYNABLUE Jun18 May27 May06 Apr16 Apr02 (poulos de)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
8  PALACE KITTEN Jul02 May28 Apr26     (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 10.00 ★    
 
ELP-6   07/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOTSANDLOTSOFGOLD         (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
2  JAG WARRIOR Jun19 Jun04 May06 Jan14   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
3  MISSED OPPORTUNITY Jun19 Apr10       (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00 6% 15.90    
4  DREAMALOT Jul02         (walsh p)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 20% 4.10    
5  BEAUTIFUL FAREWELL Jun26 May21 Apr27 Mar18 Feb11 (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.00 11% 8.10    
6  AMARYLLIS KISS Jul02         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
SCR  TAYLOR B Jul10         (stinson)DE CRUZ 119 20.00    
8  CANDY ISLAND Jul10         (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
9  MORE THAN VOWS Jun11         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 6.00 15% 5.70    
10  CAMI CAT Jun19 Jun10 May20     (foster eric)DIAZ RENE 114 12.00    
SCR  INTRIGUE         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
12  SAVE GRACE         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.50 28% 2.50    
 
ELP-7   07/30/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REDEEMER         (brisset rodol)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
2  HEZMORETHANREADY Jun27 May19       (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 4.50    
3  DRAMA CRITIC         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
4  DETECTIVE STEPHAN         (leit)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  SALUTE THE STARS         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 8% 11.30    
6  SOLOMON VANDY         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
7  ANGLOPHILE Jul10 Jun19       (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 3.50 15% 5.60    
8  LED TASSO         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 5.00    
9  AUGUSTUS BLUE         (pierce lac)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  PADDOCK BOSS         (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00    
SCR  DEER DISTRICT Jun30         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
SCR  CRAFTY KING Jul15         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
SCR  RUNGIUS Jun26         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.00 31% 2.20    
 
ELP-8   07/30/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3 F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOLAR REIGN Jul10         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 3.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  FAMED Jun18 Jan07       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.00 37% 1.70    
3  LADY DEMAREE Jul06 Jun22       (paquett)DE CRUZ 120 8.00    
SCR  ZMUDA Jul09 Jun24 May30 May13 Apr01 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 120 10.00    
5  COMEDY ACT Jun17 May19 Mar20 Jan23   (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00 8% 11.00    
6  SOCIAL MANDATE May28 May15 Apr10 Jan08   (hancock a)COURT K 120 20.00 ★    
7  SONADOR Jun22 May19 May04 Mar31   (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 30.00    
8  TAIGA Jun04 Apr29       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
9  QUEENS UP Jul09         (divito james)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 6.00 ★    
 
ELP-9   07/30/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AMARI S. Jul16 Jun25 Jun11 May28 May13 (hernandez ja)TAVARES JAVIER 124 20.00    
SCR  ARCTIC TEARS Jul16         (hernandez ja)TAVARES JAVIER 124 20.00    
2  DILMUNIA Jun25 Jun02       (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00    
3  NO COMMENT Jul03 Jun11 Apr30     (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.50 35% 1.90    
4  MADRE DI GRANDEZZA Jul12 Jun22 May10 Apr02   (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00 17% 4.80    
5  SENORITA KARLITA         (drury tho)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
6  SURE WASN'T ME Jun25 Jun12 Apr24 Feb18   (moquett e)DIAZ RENE 113 4.00 7% 13.80    
7  SILK ADIEUX         (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
8  BEL ARIA Jul23 Jun22 Jun03 May12 Mar24 (parker donald)BECKMAN ALICE 111 15.00    
9  MAYSVILLE MISS Jul09 Jun17       (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 118 8.00    
SCR  ARNEIS Jul22 Jun17       (hancock a)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00    
11  BRIE'S LIL' BIT         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 15% 5.90    
12  HUSH HUSH Jun24 May04 Mar19 Jan06   (williamson brian)EMIGH A 124 10.00 6% 16.10    
SCR  GIDDY GOOTZ         (luce ni)DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.