Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 24, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/24/2022 5940ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT-11:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TREASURE OF WAR May26 Mar26       (devaux cheri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
2  LIVY B Jul13 Jun22 Feb21     (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 125 10.00 ★    
3  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Apr15         (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 2.00 21% 3.70    
4  SHE'S GONE Jun22 May14 Apr15     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 13% 6.50    
5  TWILIGHT Feb12 Jan07       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 123 5.00 ★    
6  MALIBU MARLEE Jul18 Jun24 Jun05 May26 May13 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 8.00    
7  ELLE EST FORTE Jun28 May29       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 2.50 42% 1.40    
 
ELP-2   07/24/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP M/F PT-11:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BEVERLY'S CHARGE Jun30 Jun08 May12 Mar19 Feb24 (habeeb )DE CRUZ 118 10.00 7% 12.90    
2  MOHAYLADY Jun22 May21 May03 Apr08 Feb20 (lukas wayne)DIAZ RENE 113 8.00    
3  ENGLISH Jun17 Jun03 Apr23     (thurman rhonda)EMIGH A 122 10.00    
4  CATCHUSIFYOUCAN Jun30 Jun11 May22 Mar03   (casse w)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00 ★    
5  SWEET CONFUSION Jul03 Jun09 May21 Mar19 Feb21 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 4.50 31% 2.20    
6  MURGATROYD Jun22 May29 May03 Feb12   (maci)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 20.00    
7  WORLD OF WONDER Jun24 Jun09 May26 Apr28 Feb03 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 25% 3.10    
8  NANA'S GRAY Jun22 May27 Apr28 Mar27 Feb18 (glyshaw ti)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.00 15% 5.80    
 
ELP-3   07/24/2022 5940ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT-12:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARCH EGO Jun17         (drury thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
2  DAISY'S DOC         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 6.00    
3  SHOGUN WARRIOR Jul09 May30 May07     (hughes byro)PETERSON FERRIN 124 5.00 ★    
4  HEEDING Jun24 Jun01       (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 118 3.50 20% 3.90    
5  MIDNIGHT RAID Jun22 Mar04       (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
6  PRINCE OF GLORY Jun19 Jun02 May15 Apr20   (gutierrez fau)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
7  BRIGHT PROSPECTER Jul01 Apr22 Mar05 Feb16 Jan08 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 4.00 20% 4.00    
8  HABITUS (GB) May13 Apr29 Apr05 Mar15 Mar05 (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  MAGNIFICUS May30 Apr30 Mar19 Feb26   (moquett e)DIAZ RENE 113 8.00    
 
ELP-4   07/24/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT-12:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHROME'S RIGHT Jun24 Jun02 Mar31 Mar11 Jan14 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 35% 1.90    
2  DOWN TO BIZZNESS Jun21 Jun08 May26 Apr30 Apr09 (colebrook)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  PORT ROYAL Jul16 Jun22 Jun09 Mar18 Feb19 (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 113 8.00    
4  ALEXIS N NIKO Jun24 May27 Apr03     (thurman rhonda)EMIGH A 118 20.00    
5  EXTRAVAGATE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
6  T MONEY Jun18         (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 8.00    
7  THOUGHT Jul01 Jun09 May21 Apr24   (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
8  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jun29 May20 Mar26 Feb19   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 19% 4.20    
9  LEAD ACTOR May07         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.50 16% 5.10    
10  BAD DECISIONS Jun22 May28       (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 7% 13.60    
11  SCATTERSHACK Jul09 Jun19 May26 May03 Apr22 (cano muno)SANJUR SANTO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THACH Jul03 Jun12       (walsh brenda)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
 
ELP-5   07/24/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 1:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYFIELD STRONG Jul02         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
2  MAMBA FOREVER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
3  MENDELSSOHN JOY Jun27         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 4.50 10% 8.90    
4  GHENT Jun26         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 20.00    
5  FASTBYTE May30         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  LAVER         (arnold georg)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
7  OSCAR ECLIPSE         (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 12.00    
8  OSCAR AWARD         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
9  OVERLY D'ORO Jul02 May29 May12     (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
10  CAMBIASO Jul10         (desormeaux j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
11  DISCOVERY PEAK         (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 119 3.50 22% 3.60    
12  AUTO GLIDE         (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 5.00    
SCR  DRAMA CRITIC         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
SCR  HEZMORETHANREADY Jun27 May19       (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 4.00 22% 3.40    
SCR  AUGUSTUS BLUE         (pierce lac)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DUST STORM Jun27         (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
 
ELP-6   07/24/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Jul01         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 6% 14.70    
2  SECOND OF JULY Jun26 Jun03 May12 Apr16   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00    
SCR  FROSTED GRACE Jun18 May25 May07 Mar05 Feb12 (habeeb dona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  UPSTRIKER Jun10 Apr24 Mar12 Feb20 Jan02 (moquett ronal)GILLIGAN JACK 122 15.00    
5  HAPPY JACK Jun19 May21 May07 Apr09 Mar05 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 118 2.50 26% 2.80    
SCR  BIG LAKE Jun04 May13 Mar09 Feb10   (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
7  SILVER DUST Jun23 May26       (calhoun will)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
8  BEACHWALKER May28 May08 Mar27 Mar18 Feb12 (shorter aaron)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
9  BRIEFCASE BULLY Jun18 May15       (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.50 23% 3.40    
10  WAYAKIN Jun19 Apr16 Mar18 Feb18   (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 3.50 19% 4.30    
 
ELP-7   07/24/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  KENNESAW Jul16 Jun24 Jun03 May14   (rodriguez)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00    
SCR  IRONMAN RICHIE Jun25 Jun03 May08 Apr17 Apr03 (rodriguez eduar)HOLMES GAGE 111 20.00    
2  NATIONAL SECURITY May16         (cox h)COHEN DAVID 118 6.00 21% 3.70    
3  OF THE MOMENT Jul09 May13 Apr21 Apr08 Feb17 (williamson b)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 12.00    
SCR  EYE OF THE CAT Jun25 May31       (catalano m)EMIGH A 122 12.00    
5  DECLARE THE MOON Jun22 Jun03 Apr07 Mar17 Feb21 (hawley wesley)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
6  CABLE CHANNEL Jun16 May21 Jan23     (brisset rodol)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  POLICY OPTION Jun26 Jun02 May12 Mar10 Jan29 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  EPIMYTHIUM Jul21 Jun09 May13 Apr21 Mar19 (meah m)LEBRON VICTOR 122 8.00 ★    
9  RANDELLO Jun26 May18 May03 Mar26 Mar04 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 38% 1.60    
10  COURAGEOUSLY Jun09 May13 Apr13 Mar20 Feb19 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.50    
11  STUBBORNKINDAFELLA Jun01 May19 May03 Apr20   (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 118 15.00    
 
ELP-8   07/24/2022 4290ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NECKER ISLAND Jul02 Jun04 May07 Apr02 Feb21 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.00 43% 1.40    
2  LYKAN Jun25 May08 Apr15 Mar25 Mar05 (mason ingrid)SANJUR SANTO 122 25.00    
3  DON'T FORGET Jun22 May29 Apr23 Mar27 Mar05 (shorter aaron)MORALES EDGAR 122 30.00    
SCR  KNEEDEEPINSNOW Jul02 Jun11 Apr29 Mar19 Jan30 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 126 3.50 15% 5.60    
5  BANGO Jul02 Jun04 May04     (foley gre)PEDROZA MARCELINO 124 4.00    
SCR  HUEY ATTACK Jun22 Jun04 May14     (bahena fernando)MOJICA O 124 30.00    
7  HERE MI SONG Jul08 Apr16 Mar12 Jan01   (stinson william)ACHARD ALEX 122 15.00 6% 15.90    
SCR  STRONGCONSTITUTION Jul03 Apr30       (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
9  ROBO MAN Jul02         (pierce lacy)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 12.00 6% 15.00    
10  TUT'S REVENGE Jun22 May25 Apr30 Mar11 Jan30 (stuart she)CORRALES GERARDO 124 12.00    
11  SURVEILLANCE May28 Apr29 Apr09 Mar10 Jan27 (desormeaux j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
12  SPRAWL Jun25 May26 Feb19 Jan22   (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 122 15.00    
SCR  MANNY WAH Jul02 May28 May04 Apr09 Feb21 (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-9   07/24/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEIR TO GREATNESS Jun17         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
2  G FLAT Jun17 May30 Apr24     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
3  KENTUCKY MIST Jul01 May21 Apr24     (dyer john)HOLMES GAGE 111 20.00    
SCR  KALAKAUA Jun22 Apr28       (mulcahy ge)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00    
5  PAID TWICE Jun17 May20       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
6  HE'S A ANGEL Jul09         (macias adolfo)DIAZ RENE 113 15.00    
7  TEBOW Jun12         (vaccarezza ca)PENA JONUELLE 114 20.00    
8  INBOUND         (rodriguez gera)LEZCANO ABEL 118 20.00    
9  BAJ Jan22         (lobo h)ACHARD ALEX 118 5.00 10% 9.20    
10  AMERICAN MAYHEM Jul03 Jun17 May28     (divito james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
11  ROARING GAP Jun18 May20       (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 8.00    
12  OLD HICKORY Jul09 Jun26 Jun05 May15 Mar27 (flint bern)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 4.00 16% 5.40    
13  SHIPMAN Jul01 Jun05 May21     (green troy)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 11% 8.00    
SCR  KANSAS COMET May21 Apr16       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  AUTOPOLIS         (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.