Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Thursday - April 16, 2026
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(12/8/3/6/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(12/8/3/6/9)-(5/7/3/1/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-2   WIN (12/8/3/6/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/8/3/6/9)-(12/8/3/6/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/8/3/6/9)-(12/8/3/6/9)-(12/8/3/6/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/8/3/6/9)-(5/7/3/1/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (12/8/3/6/9)-(5/7/3/1/12)-(3/6/1/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-3   WIN (5/7/3/1/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/7/3/1/12)-(5/7/3/1/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/7/3/1/12)-(5/7/3/1/12)-(5/7/3/1/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/7/3/1/12)-(3/6/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/7/3/1/12)-(3/6/1/8)-(5/9/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-4   WIN (3/6/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/1/8)-(3/6/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/1/8)-(3/6/1/8)-(3/6/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/1/8)-(5/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1/8)-(5/9/7)-(7/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-5   WIN (5/9/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/9/7)-(5/9/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/9/7)-(5/9/1/7)-(5/9/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/9/7)-(7/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/9/7)-(7/4/1)-(8/6/9/2/10) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-6   WIN (7/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/1)-(7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/1)-(8/6/9/2/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/4/1)-(8/6/9/2/10)-(8/5/1/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-7   WIN (8/6/9/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/6/9/2/10)-(8/6/9/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-8   WIN (8/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/1/3)-(1/5/10/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-9   WIN (1/5/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/10/4)-(1/5/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/10/4)-(1/5/10/4)-(1/5/10/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/16/2026 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($51K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMIRATES AFFAIR Jan24 Jan11 Nov24 Oct17 Aug22 (hess b)ORTIZ JR 118 0.60 31% 2.20    
2  ASK AMANDA Mar19 Feb25 Feb06 Jan01 Dec04 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 17% 4.90    
3  DEVIL OF PARADIS Mar07 Aug30 Aug21 May03 Mar07 (evans mic)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 4.50    
4  SUNSET HARBOUR Mar25 Feb20 Jan24 Dec11 Nov22 (david carlo)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00    
5  SO FAR SO GOOD Mar12 Feb12 Jan07 Dec17 Dec03 (deck)ANTONGEORGI JR 118 12.00 9% 9.70    
6  COASTLINE HOTTIE Mar07 Dec18 Nov19 Oct30 Sep13 (axmaker w)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00    
SCR  SCOOP Mar18 Mar05 Feb18 Feb07 Jan08 (salas marcel)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 30.00    
 
KEE-2   04/16/2026 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RUIVA         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 116 1.60    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MINHA PAIXAO by CURLIN)
SCR  ARCTIC WOLF         (antonacci )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50    
  (by FROSTED out of FIREWOLVES by PRACTICAL JOKE)
3  PERFECT MO         (foster )DE CRUZ 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of PERFECT SISTER by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
4  SUPER SAIYAJIN Apr03         (donjuan se)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
  (by MODERNIST out of CASHMEIFUCAN by CAN THE MAN)
5  GRANDES SUENOS         (hernandez rey)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by HIGHLY MOTIVATED out of DREAM OF BERTIE by READY'S IMAGE)
6  BLESSED FLYER         (douaihy m)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of INTROSPECTION by OVERANALYZE)
7  SING FOR MO MONEY         (ennis john)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
  (by MO DONEGAL out of SING SING DIXIE by INTO MISCHIEF)
8  PAPER RUN         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 116 8.00 13% 6.60    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of PAPER CLIP by CAIRO PRINCE)
9  MR GERSON         (acevedo isra)CALLEJA ANDRES 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDEN PAL out of PERU by MOTIVATOR)
10  TRIM CASTLE         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of ROUGE by QUALITY ROAD)
11  AMERICAN POPE         (mcentee paul)SHEEHY DANNY 119 30.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of THIRSTY MADAM by STAY THIRSTY)
12  CASTLE PINES         (o'neill doug)FRESU ANTONIO 119 6.00 40% 1.50    
  (by SLEWVESCENT out of CAJUN TIDE by DIXIELAND BAND)
 
KEE-3   04/16/2026 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($110K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRESCENT SKY Mar15         (cohn g)LANERIE J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SKY HIGH LADY by SKY MESA)
SCR  GELLHORN Feb22 Aug21 Jul12 Jun15   (gargan danny)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 6.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of EXCHANGE CAT by EXCHANGE RATE)
3  LUCY MCGEE Sep10 Aug23 Jul14 Jun25 Jun07 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.00 9% 10.10    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZANILLUSION by TIZWAY)
4  MARCHELINE         (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 118 20.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SHE'S A WARRIOR by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
5  AURORA SKY Feb05 Jan08 Dec20 Nov13   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 5.00 52% 0.90    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TABLE THREE TEN by EL PRADO (IRE))
6  RED BEACH         (sacco gregor)CASTELLANO J 118 20.00    
  (by GRINDSTONE out of DREAM REGALLY by VICE REGENT)
7  CONQUERING MARIN (IRE) Feb07         (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 13% 6.60    
  (by GHAIYYATH out of CATCHMENT by MANY RIVERS)
8  HEADSPIN Mar14         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 4.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of COLBY by SUPER SAVER)
9  LLAMP Oct26 Oct05 Aug23     (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 118 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of MALIBU GEM by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  AVILA         (douaihy mi)HERNANDEZ N 118 30.00    
  (by A. V. EIGHT out of SPANISH CITY by BEAMMEUPSPARKY)
11  VICTOR VALLEY Feb21 Feb05 Dec19 Nov26 Nov13 (acevedo isra)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 20.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of BLAME IT ON ED by BLAME)
12  ONE HAPPY ISLAND Feb25 Jan14 Dec11 Nov13 Oct23 (kordenbrock mat)ACHARD ALEX 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of FULL SWING by VERRAZANO)
SCR  POVERTY WITH AVIEW Mar14 Feb01 Dec28 Dec03 Nov02 (lejzero)RADOSEVICH J 118 12.00    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of INTEREST by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  WHISKEY SERENADE Apr24         (butcher james)GARCIA MARTIN 125 30.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of DRAM GIRL by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
SCR  LORIEBETH Mar11 Feb11 Jan14 Dec11 Nov13 (taylor bren)GUTIERREZ MARIO 125 30.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of MY AUNT BETH by HAYNESFIELD)
SCR  SWIRLING SEAS         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of RISING SEAS by FIRST DEFENCE)
 
KEE-4   04/16/2026 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHITE WHALE Feb22 Jan31 Jan10 Nov30 Nov02 (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 6.00 10% 8.80    
2  MO HAIR SAM Mar28 Mar12 Aug23 Jul06 May18 (hancock)DE CRUZ 124 20.00    
3  SHANGRALA ROAD Mar20 Jun28 Jun01 Apr08 Mar01 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 124 1.20 33% 2.00    
4  MO WORK Feb19 Nov27 Jun26 Jun12 Apr08 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
SCR  LA HOULIGAN Feb16 Jan03 Dec12 Nov20 Aug09 (compton greg)ORTIZ L 124 10.00    
6  BITE AND STRIKE Apr03 Feb28 Jan16 Nov23 Oct25 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 5.00 27% 2.70    
7  ATTERSEE Mar08 Feb14 Jan03 Nov27 Nov02 (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 8.00    
8  FRACTURE Mar27 Feb23 Jan12 Dec04 May04 (leitch daniel)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-5   04/16/2026 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($140K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYCOCKS BAY Feb21 Mar29 Feb15 Jan18 Dec07 (stidham mi)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 ★    
2  IN A JAM Mar20 Feb19 Jan07 Dec06 Oct22 (cook b)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
SCR  LEGALIZE Mar20 Feb21 Dec20 Nov27 Oct22 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
4  MIRANDA RIGHTS Feb27 Nov09 Oct18 Jun21 May29 (nihei mic)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 15.00    
5  JUST A TOUCH Mar07 Jan17 Jul19 Jun07 Apr19 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 118 1.60 51% 1.00    
6  STARS AND STRIDES Feb28 Nov08 Sep01 Aug07 Jul19 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 12.00    
7  BIG TO DO Mar20 Jan09 Dec21 Nov13 Oct12 (wism)ANTONGEORGI JR 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GREEN LIGHT Feb18 Oct18 Sep10 Aug02 Jun20 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
9  JUDGE DAVIS Feb27 Dec26 Nov09 Sep27 Jul05 (maker michael )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00 26% 2.90    
10  CALIFORNIA BURRITO Feb27 Dec27 Nov22 May03 Mar22 (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
 
KEE-6   04/16/2026 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNION MIST Feb07 Jan10 Dec10 Nov14 Sep26 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  ORAIA Mar27 Jan10 Dec04 Oct09 Sep04 (cowans wil)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
3  IVORY AND EBONY Feb21 Nov28 Nov14 Sep20 Aug31 (romans dale)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 3.50    
4  METFARDEH Mar20 Jan04 Nov12 Oct03 Aug02 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50 22% 3.60    
5  QUINN'S PROMISE Feb27 Sep26 Mar06 Jan30 Nov30 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
SCR  MISSY BEE Mar26 Feb07 Dec10 Nov06 Oct15 (foster eric)RAMOS D 118 30.00    
7  CLAIRITA Feb01 Nov21 Oct17     (bauer a)SAEZ LUIS 118 0.80 42% 1.40    
 
KEE-7   04/16/2026 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($130K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THE HIDDEN CHAMBER Mar28 Jan15 Dec04 Nov23 Oct01 (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00    
2  CARCANO Feb20 Jan09 Dec04 Oct04 Aug23 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 5% 18.50    
3  COPPER MISSILE Feb12 Jan15 Dec04 May26 Apr17 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
4  ROYAL MAJESTY (GB) Jan17 Dec05 Apr24 Feb06 Nov09 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 10.00    
5  FACTOR ANALYSIS Mar06 Nov13 Oct12 Sep04 Jul26 (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 118 20.00    
6  COILED Feb20 Dec06 Sep20 Sep03 Apr23 (delacour arnau)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 29% 2.40    
7  FABER Mar21 Feb12 Dec27 Dec13 Sep28 (stidham mi)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
8  CHAPMAN'S PEAK Feb28 Dec13 Nov22 Oct11 Sep07 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 118 1.80 34% 2.00    
9  CONCORD GREEN Mar07 Jan31 Jan03 Nov28 Sep04 (mcgaughey cla)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50 11% 8.50    
10  MUTAAWID Feb20 Nov13 Oct12 Sep04 Jun28 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-8   04/16/2026 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($73K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRUSTY RUSTY Feb27 Jan30 Dec05 Oct31 Oct05 (hess b)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 9% 10.10    
SCR  CAROLO RAPIDO Mar06 Feb16 Nov16 Aug11 Jun11 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
3  LIAR'S POKER Mar06 Feb07 Jan17 Dec06 Oct16 (londono gen)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00 9% 10.20    
4  AMERICAN LAW Mar20 Feb05 Dec14 Nov15 Oct29 (shaffer sa)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
5  CLOONEY Feb08 Jan08 Oct31 Oct11 Sep21 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 20% 3.90    
6  GOES THE CLOWN Mar21 Mar06 Feb06 Jan09 Dec21 (hess b)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
7  EVENING NEWS Mar11 Dec26 Dec03 Nov12 Sep12 (andrade hu)VILLARREAL OSCAR 118 20.00    
8  AWESOME RUTA Mar06 Dec12 Nov08 Oct02 Sep07 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 120 3.50 29% 2.40    
9  TIME FOR TROUBLE Mar07 Feb20 Dec18 Nov15 Sep04 (foster eric)TORRES A 118 8.00    
 
KEE-9   04/16/2026 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($140K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVENT DETAIL Feb27 May31 Apr29 Mar27 Dec14 (walden william)CURTIS BEN 118 4.50 49% 1.00    
2  SMOKEY MANDATE Mar11 Feb14 Dec26 Nov09 Apr08 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  COMMON DEFENSE Dec06 Nov02 Oct12 Sep25 Sep04 (mcpeek kenneth)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
4  FLYING MOHAWK Feb21 Jan24 Dec27 Nov22 May03 (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  ANGLOPHILE Oct10 Sep06 Aug03 Jun14 May10 (lynch brian )CASTELLANO J 118 4.00 18% 4.70    
SCR  INNATELY GOOD Feb22 Jan31 Dec05 Nov14 Sep28 (goodwin g)FERRER C 118 30.00    
7  TIZTASTIC Aug30 Aug02 Jun28 May03 Mar22 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
8  NOISES OFF Nov09 Sep10 Aug31 Jul13 Dec14 (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00    
9  TONKA WARRIOR Mar28 Jun28 Jun01 Apr24 Mar14 (robertson mcl)ORTIZ JR 118 10.00    
10  SAND PIPES Feb14 Jan17 Dec20 Oct11 Sep14 (schultz lindsa)MARIN SAMUEL 118 5.00 6% 16.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.