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Handicappers' Race Results

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The Longshot Hunter!


Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 15, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

			Wgr	Pick						Tot	Bet	Bet	Winning		Pay
			Type	Numbers						Tkts	Unit	Amt	Numbers		Amt			Profit				ROI

CD-2			WIN	(10/6/8/3)						4	$2.00	$8.00	3		$10.06			$2.06				26%
			EXA	(10/6/8/3)-(10/6/8/3)						12	$2.00	$24.00	3-10		$67.54			$43.54				181%
			TRI	(10/6/8/3)-(10/6/8/3)-(10/6/8/3)						24	$0.50	$12.00	3-10-6		$59.51			$47.51				396%
CD-5			EXA	(7/11/13/1)-(7/11/13/6/1)						16	$2.00	$32.00	7-1		$39.92			$7.92				25%
			TRI	(7/11/13/1)-(7/11/13/6/1)-(7/11/13/6/1)						48	$0.50	$24.00	7-1-11		$38.29			$14.29				60%
			SFT	(7/11/13/1)-(7/11/13/6/1)-(7/11/13/6/1)-(7/11/13/6/1)						96	$0.10	$9.60	7-1-11-6		$34.27			$24.67				257%
CD-9			WIN	(12/7/10/13)						4	$2.00	$8.00	13		$15.64			$7.64				96%
			EXA	(12/7/10/13)-(12/7/10/13/11)						16	$2.00	$32.00	13-7		$75.86			$43.86				137%
CD-10			WIN	(7/10/12/1/5)						5	$2.00	$10.00	7		$21.46			$11.46				115%
			DD	(12/7/10/13)-(7/10/12/1/5)						20	$1.00	$20.00	13-7		$91.06			$71.06				355%
CD-11			EXA	(9/3/8/4/1)-(9/3/8/4/1)						20	$2.00	$40.00	9-1		$41.12			$1.12				3%
			DD	(7/10/12/1/5)-(9/3/8/4/1)						25	$1.00	$25.00	7-9		$50.67			$25.67				103%
			PK3	(12/7/10/13)-(7/10/12/1/5)-(9/3/8/4/1)						100	$3.00	$300	13-7-9		$1286.70			$986.70				329%

Simulator Race results


CD-1			11/15/2025		5610ft	DIRT	RC5	FAST	Maiden Sp Wt					Purse ($92K)			2		ALL		PT- 1:00
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
3	PROJECT ACE									(romans dale)LANERIE J 119						3.00		44%		1.30		1.58	W
		(by WAR OF WILL out of PLENTY O'TOOLE by RAISE A CUP)
5	QUARRY									(drury thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119						3.50		12%		7.30		1.57	P
		(by FORTY NINER out of BLACK DYNAMITE by MORE THAN READY)
1	HAPPY PRINCE									(casse mark)ORTIZ L 119						4.00		24%		3.20		2.83	S
		(by CAIRO PRINCE out of HAPPY MOTORING by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
2	SURVIVIN'ONAPRAYER									(hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 119						15.00						34.58
		(by CONNECT out of BON JOVI GIRL by MALIBU MOON)
4	ONYX OUTLAW									(ortiz )GRISALES DANILO 119						12.00						41.43
		(by INDEPENDENCE HALL out of WELL HEELED LADY by BROAD BRUSH)
7	PROPS									(desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119						10.00						13.75
		(by STREET SENSE out of GLORYZAPPER by GHOSTZAPPER)
6	TAZZY									(duran antonio)CEDILLO ABEL 119						15.00		5%		19.00		16.64
		(by GOOD SAMARITAN out of TESSIO by MINESHAFT)
SCR	VALLEY OF KINGS									(carroll josie)ORTIZ JR 119						2.50
		(by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of INDIAN VALLEY by CHEROKEE RUN)

CD-2			11/15/2025		5610ft	DIRT	RC9	FAST	Starter Allowance ($50K)					Purse ($83K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 1:29
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
3	FAIRE PLAISIR									(king l)GEROUX FLORENT 121						15.00		5%		19.00		4.03	W
10	MISS ELLARY									(robson lau)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						3.00		35%		1.90		3.88	P
6	ANGEL BELLA									(beckman whit)MACHADO LUAN 118						6.00		23%		3.40		2.80	S
4	VINO TIEMPO									(vance thomas)TORRES A 118						15.00						9.57
2	AVISO									(mcgee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 120						3.50						5.98
9	BOLT ON THE ROCKS									(hartman chris)BACON W 121						5.00						11.52
1	DAWN AFTER DAWN									(contre)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 113						12.00						16.39
8	SCOOCH OVER									(mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118						4.00		21%		3.90		4.84
SCR	MIZMALICE									(hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118						20.00
SCR	SHE'S NOT A JOKE									(williams )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121						12.00

CD-3			11/15/2025		5280ft	DIRT	RC12	FAST	Chilukki					Purse ($300K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 1:58
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
2	SHRED THE GNAR									(lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 118						2.50						2.60
		(by INTO MISCHIEF out of ASPEN LIGHT by BERNARDINI)
6	ONE MAGIC PHILLY									(walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						3.00						1.94
		(by GOOD MAGIC out of MY PHILLY GIRL by EMPIRE MAKER)
7	RAGTIME									(mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118						1.60		49%		1.10		1.36	S
		(by UNION RAGS out of BURMILLA by STORM CAT)
1	IMPEL									(cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121						4.50		14%		6.30		12.90
		(by QUALITY ROAD out of YOUR LOVE by FLATTER)
5	ZADORSKY									(beckman wh)RAMOS D 118						15.00						50.71
		(by TAPITURE out of FINGERPRINT by COMPETITIVE EDGE)
3	LITERATE									(cox h)ORTIZ JR 121						10.00		5%		19.00		11.49
		(by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of INFANTA BRANCA by HENRYTHENAVIGATOR)
SCR	RUNAWAY DIVA									(hemingway mich)ORTIZ L 121						20.00
		(by RUNHAPPY out of THEE PIE by STORMY ATLANTIC)

CD-4			11/15/2025		3960ft	DIRT	RC9	FAST	Starter Allowance ($8K)					Purse ($100K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 2:28
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
7	CONCRETE GLORY									(joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 120						1.40		38%		1.60		0.88	W
5	WOUND UP									(barocio librad)ORTIZ L 120						1.80						1.60
10	EMPIRE'S BEST									(roberts joe)POSTON K 113						30.00		5%		19.00		62.63	S
4	RAYMOND									(martin timoth)BACON W 120						6.00		27%		2.70		6.17
1	SWAGGISH									(sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120						15.00		7%		13.40		8.98
3	SPOTTED BULL									(badill)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 120						30.00						86.02
8	PANTHOR									(winters mich)TAPARA BRANDON 120						20.00						95.46
2	ILLINI									(heath g)SAEZ GABRIEL 120						30.00						49.94
SCR	SHARP WARNING									(warren kayla)DELORME L 120						20.00
SCR	TAP IN FORMATION									(rodrigue)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 120						8.00

CD-5			11/15/2025		5610ft	TURF	RC9	FIRM	Starter Allowance ($8K)					Purse ($150K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 2:57
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
7	ASHIMA									(santoro salva)ORTIZ JR 125						3.00		62%		0.60		2.39	W
1	SETTLING STORM									(matejka pav)GUTIERREZ MARIO 121						8.00		5%		19.00		8.75	P
11	GOATS ON A TREE									(maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123						4.00		8%		11.30		2.75	S
6	NERAZURRI									(casse mark)ORTIZ L 118						3.50		★				4.67
2	OUR LIBERTY BELLE									(sharp joe)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121						10.00						41.85
13	SEAT AT THE TABLE									(antonacci p)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121						10.00		5%		19.00		9.77
12	CAIRO STREET									(gaudet lacey)BOYCE FOREST 121						12.00						16.11
9	MORNING MIRACLE									(blair jordan)TORRES A 121						10.00						58.64
10	WINDY WALK									(davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 121						12.00						8.49
5	VINOS ANGEL									(bahena ismae)CALLEJA ANDRES 121						30.00						89.02
3	GETAWAY PALACE									(perez ru)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 121						10.00						24.83
4	STORY HOUR									(asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121						15.00						37.80
SCR	ASK AMANDA									(bahena ism)VILLARREAL OSCAR 121						20.00
SCR	DIFFERENTLY									(combs bentley)TREJOS JOSEPH 121						15.00
SCR	LADY OUTOFTHE BLUE									(matz r)PENNINGTON F 121						20.00
SCR	SHOW OFF									(gutierrez)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121						10.00

CD-6			11/15/2025		5610ft	DIRT	RC9	FAST	Starter Allowance ($8K)					Purse ($100K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 3:26
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
6	CURLIN'S MALIBU									(sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121						5.00						3.41
7	FREEDOM ROAD									(sillaman rich)ORTIZ JR 121						3.50		61%		0.70		1.62	P
5	TIME FOR TROUBLE									(hiles a)LANERIE J 121						4.00		★				6.98	S
3	MONEY RUN									(miller pet)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						5.00						4.19
14	LIAM THE BRAVE									(esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 121						30.00						######
10	HOODLUM									(jacobson )TORRES A 121						10.00		5%		17.70		14.37
1	KING'S RIVER									(magana j)BOYCE FOREST 123						20.00		5%		19.00		21.58
12	BLAST RADIUS									(ramirez m)ORTIZ L 121						10.00						19.09
11	I FEELUCKY TONITE									(solis jacint)HADDOCK DEXTER 121						6.00		11%		8.50		12.62
4	SHOTSHELL									(roberts joe)POSTON K 114						30.00						72.58
9	DADDY JUSTIFY									(foley gre)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121						20.00						39.24
13	SYNTACTIC									(escobar ma)GALLARDO EDUARDO 121						30.00						######
SCR	EL PERFECTO									(rogers andy)CURTIS BEN 121						15.00
SCR	KNOX									(summers )ELLINGWOOD A 123						15.00
SCR	METATRON'S MUSE									(hartman chris)BACON W 121						12.00
SCR	SWISS GUARD									(manley st)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123						20.00

CD-7			11/15/2025		5280ft	DIRT	RC9	FAST	Starter Allowance ($12.5K)					Purse ($100K)			3UP		M/F		PT- 3:55
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
11	NEXT GIRL									(bailes rober)ORTIZ L 121						5.00						3.12
9	SADIE THE GOAT									(rivera nes)CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 121						4.00		60%		0.70		6.64	P
4	PINK ROSE									(padilla-precia)ADORNO ABNER 121						12.00		5%		19.00		9.22	S
10	BEAU SOLEIL									(asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121						8.00		6%		15.60		6.36
7	TWO HEARTED									(sandrowski j)FELIX E 121						30.00						######
5	JUBILANT JOANIE									(dutrow richar)ORTIZ JR 121						3.50		8%		12.20		5.25
13	MERCY WARREN									(sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121						3.00		★				2.29
8	SAVANNAMARIE									(alvarez nery)CEDILLO ABEL 121						12.00						12.83
1	OOPS AND DOWNS									(ward dan)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 121						50.00						65.79
3	ANGELAS PARTY GIRL									(goodwin n)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121						30.00						25.97
14	LUCKY ANA									(donjuan se)VILLARREAL OSCAR 121						50.00						######
SCR	LIKA ROLLING STONE									(arriaga ant)CONCEPCION AXEL 121						12.00
SCR	ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY									(jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						15.00
SCR	WHAT IF									(bahena ismae)CALLEJA ANDRES 118						50.00

CD-8			11/15/2025		3630ft	TURF	RC9	FIRM	Starter Allowance ($8K)					Purse ($150K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 4:25
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
6	SHAPE NOTE									(maker michael )ORTIZ L 120						5.00						8.50
5	FINAL VERDICT									(barker edw)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						4.50		★				4.13	P
13	HIGH FRONT									(asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 120						15.00		5%		19.00		5.71	S
11	BAD BEAT BRIAN									(asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 120						12.00		5%		19.00		13.66
4	FROSTY VIEW									(berndt joel)CEDILLO ABEL 124						3.00		26%		2.80		1.35
7	CHISELER									(vanden britt)EMIGH A 120						30.00						27.15
2	SPOKE									(camejo jo)PEDROZA MARCELINO 120						20.00						43.03
14	ALL JOKES ASIDE									(meah m)SAEZ LUIS 120						30.00						73.93
9	CHIRINGO									(garcia ge)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120						30.00						80.64
16	MR. MELO									(hernandez )HERNANDEZ N 120						30.00						######
8	PINFIRE									(tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 120						3.50		44%		1.30		5.16
15	CHROMED IMPULSE									(goodwin n)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120						20.00						52.63
SCR	FLUID SITUATION									(rice kevin)TORRES A 120						20.00
SCR	SOSUA SUMMER									(barboza jr)SAEZ LUIS 120						8.00
SCR	SPEED FIGURES									(breen j)ORTIZ JR 120						6.00
SCR	VINSANITY									(rodriguez rudy)MACHADO LUAN 120						30.00

CD-9			11/15/2025		4620ft	DIRT	RC9	FAST	Starter Allowance ($8K)					Purse ($125K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 4:55
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
13	NATION									(hess b)ORTIZ JR 122						6.00		5%		18.30		6.82	W
7	MY NOBLE KNIGHT									(amoss m)ORTIZ L 120						5.00		15%		5.60		5.30	P
14	UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL									(kantarmaci m)TORRES A 120						8.00						9.29
12	KEEN CAT									(morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 120						8.00		43%		1.40		3.57
2	MIACOMET									(esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120						20.00						41.84
10	GLOBAL SENSATION									(molloy thom)CONCEPCION AXEL 120						10.00		13%		6.60		7.79
11	GILMORE									(sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120						4.00		★				2.37
16	AIR CAV									(bahena ismae)CALLEJA ANDRES 120						30.00						######
4	SOZE									(soto- ma)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 120						12.00						11.89
3	AMERICAN OUTLAW									(casse nor)TORRES A 120						20.00						20.29
15	PENROD									(hancock d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120						30.00						######
6	LEMON DROP SHOT									(bahena fern)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120						30.00						40.05
9	FREEDOM STANCE									(kordenbrock mat)LANERIE J 118						30.00						65.92
SCR	TAKESCHARGESMILING									(baker char)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120						4.50
SCR	PAPA YO									(hartman chris)BACON W 120						15.00
SCR	OVERBORE									(fletcher kevin)ACHARD ALEX 120						30.00
SCR	TWIRLING TROILLET									(blair jor)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120						30.00
SCR	BOTTLES									(kordenbrock matt)GRAHAM J 118						30.00

CD-10			11/15/2025		5940ft	DIRT	RC9	FAST	Starter Allowance ($35K)					Purse ($200K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 5:25
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
7	DOUBLE YOUR MONEY									(dunn benjam)GONZALEZ MELVIS 121						6.00		39%		1.50		9.73	W
2	CADET CORPS									(breen kelly)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121						6.00						6.37
6	WELAKA									(danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121						15.00						15.74
16	DR. STORM									(espinoza e)GALLARDO EDUARDO 121						30.00						######
13	POINT DUME									(kreiser ti)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121						4.50						7.08
11	DANCE SOME MO									(van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123						30.00						76.45	DH
5	ALTERNATE REALITY									(sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121						15.00		5%		19.00		16.04	DH
12	NAVAJO WARRIOR									(joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 121						3.50		12%		7.70		1.15
15	BRILLIANT MAN									(cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 121						50.00						######
14	AMERICAN LAW									(shaffer sara)TORRES A 121						30.00						88.02
10	BERNIN HOT									(crichton g)SAEZ LUIS 121						4.00		24%		3.20		6.73
3	HAPPY STRIKE									(loy dew)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121						20.00						47.97
4	OVERSTATEMENT									(miller kenny)MACHADO LUAN 121						20.00						30.94
1	GILDED CRAKEN									(sharp joe)ORTIZ L 121						10.00		5%		19.00		16.17
SCR	CAROLO RAPIDO									(kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 121						30.00
SCR	LE GRIS									(rodriguez r)CONCEPCION AXEL 121						30.00

CD-11			11/15/2025		5610ft	TURF	RC9	FIRM	Starter Allowance ($8K)					Purse ($175K)			3UP		ALL		PT- 5:55
See Brisnet Instant Chart.
See TBRSimulator Race Card.																M/L		W/P		B/E		F/O
9	ECHO LANE									(crichton g)SAEZ LUIS 121						3.00		34%		2.00		2.45	W
1	GEWURZTRAMINER									(contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121						10.00		5%		19.00		7.19	P
10	KING CURLIN									(vanden britt)EMIGH A 121						30.00						60.72
4	NANTASKET BEACH									(robson la)LEPAROUX R 121						8.00		5%		17.30		4.22
2	GOES THE CLOWN									(maker michael)ORTIZ JR 121						10.00						7.25
3	RISK MANAGER									(maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123						2.00		26%		2.90		2.59
5	STROKE OF MIDNIGHT									(nunez milto)CONCEPCION AXEL 121						15.00						39.44
7	MISTER ABARRIO									(joseph saffie )ORTIZ L 121						12.00						17.50
6	AZOI									(bahena ismae)CALLEJA ANDRES 121						30.00						######
11	SWISS SLANG									(orantes yo)VILLARREAL OSCAR 121						30.00						71.63
8	GROUNDED									(davis scoo)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 125						6.00		12%		7.30		16.58
12	KALIK									(pulgarin se)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121						15.00						27.31
SCR	FRANZ JOSEF									(wismer s)ORTIZ L 121						12.00
SCR	PROTONIC POWER									(hernandez armando)FELIX E 123						20.00
SCR	RANCHO									(hernandez re)RAMOS D 121						20.00



	Labels:
	M/L	Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
	W/P	Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
	B/E	Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
	F/O	Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

	Two Groups of Contenders:
	Win Contenders
		The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
	Place/Show Contenders
		The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

	Legal:
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