Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Colonial Downs
Wednesday - July 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CNL-1   WIN (3/1/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/5/4)-(8/1/4/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/4)-(8/1/4/3)-(11/6/9/10/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CNL-2   WIN (8/1/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/4/3)-(8/1/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/4/3)-(8/1/4/3)-(8/1/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/4/3)-(11/6/9/10/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4/3)-(11/6/9/10/1)-(1/4/5/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CNL-3   WIN (11/6/9/10/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/6/9/10/1)-(11/6/9/10/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/6/9/10/1)-(11/6/9/10/1)-(11/6/9/10/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/6/9/10/1)-(1/4/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/6/9/10/1)-(1/4/5/2)-(7/6/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-4   WIN (1/4/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/5/2)-(1/4/5/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/4/5/2)-(1/4/5/2/6)-(1/4/5/2/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/4/5/2)-(7/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/5/2)-(7/6/1)-(10/2/1/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CNL-5   WIN (7/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/1)-(7/6/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/6/1)-(7/6/5/1)-(7/6/5/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/6/1)-(10/2/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/1)-(10/2/1/5)-(7/4/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-6   WIN (10/2/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/2/1/5)-(10/2/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/2/1/5)-(10/2/1/5)-(10/2/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (10/2/1/5)-(7/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/2/1/5)-(7/4/2)-(7/5/2/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CNL-7   WIN (7/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/2)-(7/4/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/4/2)-(7/4/5/2)-(7/4/5/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/4/2)-(7/5/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/2)-(7/5/2/1)-(5/2/12/11) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CNL-8   WIN (7/5/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/2/1)-(7/5/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/2/1)-(7/5/2/1)-(7/5/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/2/1)-(5/2/12/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CNL-9   WIN (5/2/12/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/12/11)-(5/2/12/10/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/2/12/11)-(5/2/12/10/11)-(5/2/12/10/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CNL-1   07/16/2025 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT-12:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GENUINE PERIL Sep04 Aug03 Jul18 Jan13 Dec02 (munoz carlos)ASHTON GAVIN 122 2.00 24% 3.20    
BELLY DANCE Jun12 Apr23 Sep14 Aug09 Feb07 (ochoa )ROJAS EDUARDO 122 20.00    
COUNTRYCLUB COUPLE Jun08 Mar03 Feb03     (russell britt)TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 2.50 39% 1.60    
MOONSHINING May03 Mar13 Feb28 Feb04 Jan25 (rodriguez m)LOPEZ E 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
SOMETHINGWONDERFUL Jun07 May17 Apr25 Jan18 Dec07 (aguirre a)BETANCOURT R 122 4.50 9% 10.00    
THIRD TUESDAY Jul03 Jun21 Jun08 Apr05 Mar22 (maldonado )SANCHEZ J 124 6.00    
LOST RIVER Jun04 May11 Mar28 Mar14 Aug15 (flores ir)CARRASCO R 118 12.00    
ON A PROUD NOTE Jun27 May25 Apr19 Apr05 Mar02 (trombetta mic)KARAMANOS A 118 5.00    
 
CNL-2   07/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($87.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LONESOME ROAD         (trombetta )SANCHEZ J 118 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of WALK OF STARS by STREET SENSE)
EARL OF GODIVA Jun06 May15       (de horaci)TOLEDO JEVIAN 118 6.00    
  (by LEOFRIC out of SILVER HUSTLER by POLITICAL FORCE)
I LIKE IKE         (delacour )CARRASCO R 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUTAKDDIM out of LADY XENA by LORD AT WAR (ARG))
HOPE'S ALIVE Jun14 May26 Apr12 Mar22 Feb15 (kelly blake)CHUAN MARTIN 118 2.00 21% 3.80    
  (by GIFT BOX out of GALLUS MAG by CAIRO PRINCE)
RHYTHM 'N BLUES May16 Dec06 Oct06 Sep14 Aug01 (cibelli jane)CURTIS BEN 118 4.50    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of MISS KATIE BUG by POINT OF ENTRY)
YANCEY Jun13         (aguirre anthony)CENTENO E 124 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of CHALICE BEARER by VICAR)
POTCAKE Jun08 Oct05 Sep04     (nagle sarah)RUIZ JORGE 118 15.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of BELLA PROMESSA by BROKEN VOW)
GAS ALLEY Jun26 May30 Jul18     (lauer mi)GALLARDO A 118 5.00 33% 2.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of THREE SPOKES by DAAHER)
 
CNL-3   07/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UPSIDEDOWN MAN Jun27 Jun06 May26 Nov10 Nov03 (magee kieron)CENTENO E 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
ISLAND D'LITE Jun28 Jun14 Jun01 May16 Apr26 (mcmahon tho)TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 15.00    
CACTUS Jun22 May10 Apr26 Mar21 Feb23 (magee ki)GALLARDO A 122 2.50    
SCR  CECIL THE GREAT May15 Apr17 Nov21 Oct24 Sep27 (clement rola)CASIQUE UBARDO 122 30.00    
BATI KING Jun19 May23 Apr25 Feb22 Jan15 (ochoa gera)SANCHEZ J 122 15.00    
BY THE SEY SHORE Jun28 Nov03 Aug31 Aug11 Jun29 (trombetta mic)KARAMANOS A 122 6.00 13% 6.60    
KATIE'S NOTION Jun14 May16 Apr25 Nov02 Oct12 (mancilla carlo)ROSADO JOHAN 122 15.00    
MAXWELL ESQUIRE Dec27 Dec12 Nov08 Oct26 Oct05 (klesaris ste)LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 6.00    
ALL JOKES ASIDE Jun21 Jun07 Apr09 Mar13 Mar05 (meah m)CURTIS BEN 122 8.00 6% 16.30    
10  RETAINED Jun28 Jun01 May16 Apr26 Mar22 (dilodovic)CARRASCO R 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  NOBLE JON Jun22 Jun02 Dec19 Oct24 Oct08 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 122 5.00 59% 0.70    
 
CNL-4   07/16/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUR FINEST HOUR (FR) Jan16 Dec07 Oct19 Aug31 Jul19 (bourke m)ASHTON GAVIN 124 5.00 44% 1.30    
PALACE LIGHTS Jun17 May28 May04 Apr25 Mar09 (vargas a)CHAVEZ ANDRES 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
PRETTY GEISHA Feb08 Jan17 Nov03 Oct19 Oct03 (boniface kevi)TOLEDO JEVIAN 118 30.00    
DARK POOL Jun27 Jun01 Aug12 Jul11 Jun16 (brion keri)CENTENO E 124 4.00 29% 2.40    
MOONSCAPE May30 Apr25 Oct03     (hemingway michel)CURTIS BEN 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
CAMEO ROSE Jun17 May28 Feb28 Jan20   (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 15.00    
SCR  QUEEN ROCKET Jun15 Nov03 Sep14 Sep04 Aug02 (aro michae)SANCHEZ J 124 8.00    
SCR  MOON LACES Jun21         (rodriguez m)LOPEZ E 118 20.00    
LADY LYLA Feb28 Feb07 Jan10 Dec18 Sep06 (paramo mart)BURNHAM MATILDA 117 30.00    
SCR  AMERICAN KESTREL May18 Mar19 Jan05 Sep20 Aug02 (thomas jona)RUSSELL SHELDON 124 2.00    
11  JESS'S VISION May04 Apr25 Apr05     (yanez r)RIQUELME J 124 30.00    
12  TERRIE T Jun14 Apr25 Apr05 Mar09   (lusk r)LOPEZ PASCACIO 124 30.00    
SCR  SILLY LILY Jun07 Nov05 Sep08 Aug10 Aug02 (boucher lil)HAMILTON WESTON 124 20.00    
 
CNL-5   07/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CATAHOULA MOON Oct12 Sep27 Aug16 Jul21 Jun07 (robb j)PEREZ XAVIER 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
FREE SOUL Jun13 Sep06 Aug12 Jul19 Jun08 (munoz carlos)ASHTON GAVIN 121 30.00    
RADICAL RIGHT Jun29 Jun06 May17 May04 Mar29 (allen ferr)LOPEZ PASCACIO 121 4.50    
EXPLORATION Jun15 May17 Mar01 Jan26 Dec13 (russell britt)TOLEDO JEVIAN 121 5.00    
CALL ME ANDY May10 Apr12 Mar08 Feb07 Jan01 (walsh p)CURTIS BEN 121 4.00    
UNCAPTURED WARRIOR Jun21 Jan29 Dec14 Oct13 Sep21 (joseph saf)HUSBANDS J 123 2.50 35% 1.90    
AUGUSTA MELODY Jun06 May17 Apr16 Mar04 May27 (russell bri)RUSSELL SHELDON 123 2.00 35% 1.90    
 
CNL-6   07/16/2025 5940ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OLD FLAG (IRE) Jun29 Jun14 May16 Apr25 Apr06 (mcgoey monica)KARAMANOS A 123 15.00 17% 5.00    
INCHON May22 May03 Mar19 Feb15 Dec27 (motion graham)RUIZ JORGE 123 3.00 18% 4.60    
ADDICTED TO YOU Jun27 Apr27 Nov08 Oct05 Aug24 (de hor)SANCHEZ J 123 5.00    
GOOD MEDICINE Aug31 Aug11 Jul14 Jun22 May27 (morris r)CONNER TYLER 123 15.00    
ENAHM Jun12 May03 Aug15 Jul21 May04 (schoentha)CARRASCO R 123 8.00 15% 5.60    
BOOKITWITHHADDAD Jun13 May11 Apr03 Mar09 Feb15 (de horaci)TOLEDO JEVIAN 118 10.00    
FIRST SHOT FIRED Jun21 Jun05 May11 Mar22 Mar08 (gallegos)GALLARDO A 123 10.00    
SCR  MIKE THE BOMB Jun21 Oct19 Oct11 Oct05 Aug18 (mancilla carlo)ROSADO JOHAN 125 15.00    
SCR  MY GREAT ILLUSION Jun08 May16 Mar16 Feb05 Jan08 (crichton rohan)CURTIS BEN 123 6.00    
10  FALFURRIAS Jun12 May16 Apr11 Mar05 May03 (klesaris ste)LOPEZ PASCACIO 123 3.50 27% 2.80    
 
CNL-7   07/16/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NAVANI Jun20 May24 Apr27 Apr04 Mar07 (allen ferri)KARAMANOS A 124 6.00    
BAILINTIN Jun27 May01 Apr12 Feb15 Feb07 (maldonado jon)TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GIRVINIZED Jul02 Jun07 May09 Apr21 Apr05 (allen ferris)CONNER TYLER 124 30.00    
DANCING MAGIC (IRE) Feb08 Jan11 Dec07 Oct25 Oct04 (campbell m)SANCHEZ J 118 4.50 19% 4.30    
RUNAWAY DIVA Apr18 Mar01 Feb08 Jan10 Sep22 (hemingway michel)CURTIS BEN 122 2.50    
DULCE DESPERTAR (ARG) May30         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00    
WILLOW BEND Jun19 Jun07 May02 Apr11 Mar02 (ness jamie)LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 2.00 38% 1.60    
ASPEN DAWN Jun22 May16 Apr18 Feb20 Jan10 (casse ma)GALLARDO A 124 5.00    
 
CNL-8   07/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($72K) 3 ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MISCHIEF RIVER Apr24 Oct05 Sep08 Aug11 Jun29 (caramori caio)TOLEDO JEVIAN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
ENGLISH LAW Jun06 Apr09 Mar13 Feb02 Dec07 (casse ma)GALLARDO A 120 4.00 14% 6.40    
RUNNER EYES Oct10 Aug23       (casse mark)SANCHEZ J 120 5.00    
PEDIATRICIAN Jun27 Jun07 May03 Apr11   (salazar m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 30.00    
ANTISOCIAL Jun14 May15 Oct12 Sep07   (duarte jorge)LOPEZ PASCACIO 120 3.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  BIG TANKNESS Jun20         (ness jamie)RUIZ JORGE 120 10.00    
MAGIC PATHWAY May26 Apr12 Mar14 Feb15   (trombetta micha)CENTENO E 122 3.50 40% 1.50    
HEAVEN'S CHAMPION Jun07 Apr12       (kelly blake)CHUAN MARTIN 122 12.00    
CHRIS'S REVENGE May30 Apr29 Jan31 Dec21 Nov24 (russell bri)RUSSELL SHELDON 120 6.00    
 
CNL-9   07/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LOU ANNA Jun05 May23 Apr26 Sep04 Aug24 (mccutchen)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 30.00    
ROYAL PRINCESS Jun11 May08 Apr07 Feb20 Jan25 (russell bri)RUSSELL SHELDON 118 4.00 14% 6.20    
FORCE OF LAW Jun29 Apr26 Jan29 Jan01 Nov23 (meyers madi)HAMILTON WESTON 118 20.00    
SCR  MOMMA'S LINO Jun05 Nov01 Oct12 Sep21 Aug22 (brion keri)RUIZ JORGE 123 5.00    
LEO TORO Feb20 Dec28 Nov13 Oct20 Sep07 (joseph saf)HUSBANDS J 123 2.50 49% 1.10    
SCR  MAINSTREAM SELLOUT Nov29 Nov01 Oct26 Sep05 Aug13 (saville nia)BURNHAM MATILDA 116 30.00    
PRECIOUS MEDLEY Jun23 May17 Apr12 Mar07 Feb13 (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
KOBE'S SMILE Jun29 May17 Nov10 Nov01 Oct12 (boniface kevi)TOLEDO JEVIAN 123 30.00    
EVELYN LOUISE May28 Apr17 Mar08 Dec28 Oct19 (oliver victori)ASHTON GAVIN 118 20.00    
10  SASSY ALLIE Jun06 May09 Feb13 Dec27 Nov29 (falcone n)CURTIS BEN 123 6.00    
11  ROCIO May04 Mar21 Feb28 Feb05 Jan10 (munoz carlos)CONNER TYLER 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
12  LADY ENSIGN Apr19 Jan31 Oct20 Oct12 Sep05 (mcmahon i)CENTENO E 123 8.00 11% 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.