Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Thursday - January 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-2   WIN (6/5/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/8/7)-(6/5/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/8/7)-(6/5/8/7)-(6/5/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/8/7)-(6/7/5/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/5/8/7)-(6/7/5/9)-(9/8/3/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
TUP-3   WIN (6/7/5/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/5/9)-(6/7/4/5/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/7/5/9)-(6/7/4/5/9)-(6/7/4/5/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/7/5/9)-(9/8/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/7/5/9)-(9/8/3/5)-(1/3/8/10/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
TUP-4   WIN (9/8/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/8/3/5)-(9/8/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/8/3/5)-(9/8/3/5)-(9/8/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/8/3/5)-(1/3/8/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/8/3/5)-(1/3/8/10/6)-(1/7/8/5/2) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
TUP-5   WIN (1/3/8/10/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/8/10/6)-(1/3/8/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/8/10/6)-(1/3/8/10/6)-(1/3/8/10/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/8/10/6)-(1/7/8/5/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8/10/6)-(1/7/8/5/2)-(5/9/1/2/10) 125 $0.50 $62.50 
TUP-6   WIN (1/7/8/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/7/8/5/2)-(1/7/8/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/7/8/5/2)-(1/7/8/5/2)-(1/7/8/5/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/7/8/5/2)-(5/9/1/2/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/7/8/5/2)-(5/9/1/2/10)-(2/3/1/8) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
TUP-7   WIN (5/9/1/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/1/2/10)-(5/9/1/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/9/1/2/10)-(5/9/1/2/10)-(5/9/1/2/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/9/1/2/10)-(2/3/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TUP-8   WIN (2/3/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/1/8)-(2/3/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/1/8)-(2/3/1/8)-(2/3/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-2   01/16/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4.5K) Purse ($10.3K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CASSANO Jan02 Nov26 Oct20 Sep21 Aug31 (hedge rick)AMERICANO MANUEL 119 10.00    
2  EARTHLY TIGER Dec19 Nov19 Aug31 Aug24 Jul26 (gibson )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 6.00    
3  ZEN STATE Jan01 Dec03 Nov14 Oct06 Jul28 (peery debbie)KRIGGER K 124 5.00    
4  EDDIE'S WAVE Jan01 Dec01 Nov09 Oct26 Sep21 (crowe shelly)REYES R 124 4.00    
5  MOESAHANDFUL Dec05 Nov19 Jul05 Jun15 Apr21 (diodoro robertino)MOJICA O 124 2.00 22% 3.60    
6  LATER TAMARTATER Nov30 Nov16 Nov03 Sep22 Aug17 (story chad)CRUZ M 124 3.50 24% 3.20    
7  ANTIBES Jan01 Dec01 Nov03 Sep22 Sep13 (willia)ASENCIO MARIANO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  WE GOT SWAG Dec27 Nov30 Nov14 Oct07 Sep23 (velasquez rigobe)MAWING A 124 20.00 14% 5.90    
 
TUP-3   01/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($21K) 3 ALL PT- 3:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKIN MY FORTUNE Jan01 Dec18 Aug25 Aug11 Jul14 (lund valor)AMERICANO MANUEL 116 5.00    
2  JUST GOTTA SHINE Jan01 Sep07       (van debbie)MONTALVO C 121 20.00    
3  REBOSO Jan01 May04 Apr11     (silva l)CRUZ M 121 3.50    
4  DA SMOKE Aug25 Aug11 Jul07 Jun09   (wisdom anne)REYES R 121 4.50 ★    
5  ROADSWITCHER Dec17 Dec04 Oct12 Sep14   (sepich f)CORBETT W 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  SPENARD Jan01 Nov13       (birdwell tena)LOPEZ KARLO 121 2.50 65% 0.50    
7  BOTTLE CAPS Jan01 Oct13 Sep29 Sep13 Aug25 (williams )IRONEYES R 121 12.00 6% 16.10    
8  R C EXPRESS         (eikleberr)VALENZUELA A 121 5.00    
9  DUNVEGAN         (lucarelli fran)ENRIQUEZ D 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
TUP-4   01/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($25K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THE BLACK STRAT Dec02 Nov13 Sep20 Sep03 Aug06 (vitali ma)VALENZUELA A 122 10.00    
2  GOLDEN ALE Dec16 Nov19 Jun30 Jun02 Apr30 (lucarelli fran)ENRIQUEZ D 122 15.00    
3  WHAT A DUDE Dec30 Dec03 Nov18 Nov11 Sep27 (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  ST ANTHONY Nov30 Nov02 Sep02 Aug16 Nov12 (drysdale neil)MOJICA O 122 2.00    
5  AMERICAN BLAZE Nov19 Oct12 Sep14 Aug24 Jul12 (brinson clay)LOPEZ KARLO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  NEPTUNE'S STORM May21 Apr28 Jan20 Dec11 Nov05 (leon alex)IRONEYES R 122 20.00    
7  TENTH STREET DON Dec11 Nov14 Sep21 Sep02 Aug24 (lund valor)GALLARDO EDUARDO 122 12.00    
8  KENNEBEC Dec18 Nov19 Aug08 Jul10 May04 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 3.50 21% 3.70    
9  SALINE RIVER Dec18 Oct23 Aug04 Jun23 Jun08 (diodoro)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 4.00 50% 1.00    
 
TUP-5   01/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($22K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITSMYBIRTHDAY Jan01         (diodoro robertino)MOJICA O 121 3.00 35% 1.80    
2  SHANKADOPOLOUS Sep20 Aug15       (bean robe)JENSEN P 119 20.00    
3  EZ IZ ONZAWAY Dec04         (eikleberry)AMERICANO MANUEL 114 4.00 27% 2.70    
4  CLOUD BLITZ Dec10 Nov17 Jul07     (martin)ASENCIO MARIANO 119 12.00    
5  CANDY CRUSHER Dec08 Nov03 Oct20     (evans j)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 10.00    
6  WEST COAST BULL Sep07 Aug11 Jul13     (bullock steve)REYES R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  FOOLS CONVERSATION Sep21 Aug24       (eikleberr)VALENZUELA A 119 6.00    
8  TIME TO FLY Dec04 Aug31 Jul27 Jun28   (eikleberry kevi)VERGARA P 119 5.00 10% 8.70    
9  NASTIKA'S SECRET Oct06 Sep15       (essex charles)CRUZ M 119 12.00    
10  BUTTERMAKER Nov25 Oct11 Sep05 Aug02   (kenney ryan)LOPEZ KARLO 119 10.00 6% 15.00    
 
TUP-6   01/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($13K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUSTIN'S LADY Jan01 Nov27 Nov11 Sep01 Aug16 (tubbs scott)CRUZ M 124 5.00 51% 1.00    
2  CONFIDENCE BUILDER Jan01 Dec18 Dec04 Nov21 Nov12 (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NIGHT FLYER Oct13 Sep29 Sep07 Aug30 Aug16 (brown )ASENCIO MARIANO 124 15.00    
4  LADY ATHENA Dec19 Dec04 Oct26 Oct13 Sep29 (williams )VALENZUELA A 124 6.00    
5  CHROME'S BEST COPY Dec11 Nov27 Nov12 Sep15 Sep08 (buffalo)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  LADY CRUISER Dec30 Aug30 Aug16 Aug04 Jul26 (toye joe)MONTALVO C 124 3.00    
7  DELIA Dec28 Dec05 Jul28 Apr07 Feb22 (eikleberry)AMERICANO MANUEL 119 4.00 13% 6.70    
8  A DIME FOR ME Nov03 Oct12 Sep15 Aug10 Jul27 (tamayo isidro)REYES R 124 8.00 9% 10.60    
9  ORANGE THEORY Dec27 Nov03 Oct12 Sep28 Sep07 (anderson gonzalo)MOJICA O 124 6.00    
10  TIZ A TIGER Jan01 Dec09 Nov21 Nov12 Sep08 (nunnally jennif)LOPEZ KARLO 124 12.00    
 
TUP-7   01/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($12.5K) Purse ($22.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOCK IT DOWN Dec03 Nov18 Sep21 Aug18 Jul13 (martinez )VALENZUELA A 122 6.00 12% 7.70    
2  IF YOU WANT IT Dec27 May04 Mar18 Jun09 May02 (belvoir vann)LOPEZ KARLO 122 10.00 11% 8.10    
3  CRYSTAL COAST Nov15 Oct19 Sep28 Aug18 Aug04 (mckinney )IRONEYES R 122 5.00    
4  SMOOCHING Nov14 Oct20 Sep29 Sep07 Aug04 (kenney)ASENCIO MARIANO 122 12.00    
5  LOOPY Dec31 Nov27 Nov18 Aug17 Jul05 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 3.00 43% 1.40    
6  ALICESHOUSEOFHEART Dec27 Dec03 Nov11 Sep08 Aug16 (essex charles)REYES R 122 10.00    
7  EMERALD SEA Dec09 Sep15 Aug31 Aug11 Jul06 (velasquez rigobe)MAWING A 122 12.00    
SCR  MAGIC LIGHT Jun07 Aug25 May29 Apr30 Apr07 (drysdal)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 5.00    
9  YOGYA Dec27 Dec03 Nov18 Aug24 Jul19 (lucarelli fran)ENRIQUEZ D 122 4.00 12% 7.30    
10  EVEN PANDURA Dec27 Sep04 Aug26 Aug05 Jul16 (sanderson )GALLARDO EDUARDO 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MASTERY KAT Dec07 Nov02 Sep15 Aug17 Jul28 (thomas jam)AMERICANO MANUEL 117 4.50    
 
TUP-8   01/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($25K) Purse ($23.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWELVE STARS Dec30 Aug18 Jul25 Jun27 Jun01 (martine)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 3.00 15% 5.50    
2  DIPLOMATICA Dec30 Dec03 Aug18 Jul25 Jun01 (martinez esteba)VERGARA P 124 4.00 37% 1.70    
3  MISS UNION Dec10 Nov13 Sep22 Jul13 Jul01 (ferguson curt)CRUZ M 124 3.50 24% 3.20    
SCR  NEVER SWAY Jan01 Dec10 Oct09 Aug09 May03 (diodoro robertino)MOJICA O 124 4.50    
SCR  WE ALL AGREE Dec30 Nov30 May01 Mar28 Mar20 (alcoverde er)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 20.00    
6  DADS ESTRELLA Sep07 Aug04 Jul04 Jun07 Apr25 (kemper kas)AMERICANO MANUEL 119 6.00    
7  GO GO SADIE Jan01 Dec10 Apr25 Apr03 Mar26 (guerra jacque)CORBETT W 124 15.00    
8  BIG BEAUTY Dec28 Dec09 Apr03 Mar19 Feb06 (evans justin)LOPEZ KARLO 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DOMINEERING Mar01 Feb04 Dec30 Dec16 Nov29 (perkinson c)KHELAWAN KERRON 124 12.00    
10  COASTLINE HOTTIE Apr24 Apr03 Feb27 Feb01 Mar26 (sepich ed)VALENZUELA A 124 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.