Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Friday - November 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-2   WIN (2/11/1/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/11/1/5/3)-(2/11/1/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/11/1/5/3)-(2/11/1/5/3)-(2/11/1/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ARP-3   WIN (1/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/4)-(1/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/4)-(1/6/4)-(1/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/6/4)-(2/1/12/11/10)-(5/1/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ARP-4   WIN (2/1/12/11/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/1/12/11/10)-(2/1/12/11/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/1/12/11/10)-(2/1/12/11/10)-(2/1/12/11/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    PK3 (2/1/12/11/10)-(5/1/2)-(4/8/5/2/3) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ARP-5   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/2)-(4/8/5/2/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ARP-6   WIN (4/8/5/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/5/2/3)-(4/8/5/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/5/2/3)-(4/8/5/2/3)-(4/8/5/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-2   11/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEEDABETTERJOCK Oct26 Sep29 Sep21 Sep01 Aug17 (scudder rick)NUNNALLY BLAKE 124 6.00 11% 8.30    
2  TAPIT DOWN Oct26 Oct13 Sep28 Sep06 Jun13 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  OREGON COUNTY Oct26 Oct04 Sep13 Sep07 Jul21 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 10.00 10% 9.50    
4  EMPEROR'S CHOICE Oct26 Oct06 Sep07 Sep01 Aug24 (leon alexis)ARANA MINOR 124 8.00    
5  BRICKBAT Oct26 Oct04 Sep13 Aug11 Jul14 (rushton stacy)RAMOS B 124 4.50 10% 9.30    
SCR  SUEZ Oct27 Oct19 Oct05 Sep14 Sep07 (hibdon n)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50    
SCR  COWBOY DON Oct11 Sep22 Aug05 Jul20 Jun15 (mcdonald )IRONEYES R 124 6.00    
SCR  RIVERSPORT Oct26 Oct19 Oct05 Sep28 Sep13 (ibanez alber)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 15.00    
9  CASPER JUSTICE Nov02 Oct18 Sep27 Sep20 Sep06 (arceo sal)MEDINA ANGEL 124 12.00    
10  FURLONGIN FOR LUV Oct18 Sep29 Sep07 Aug25 Aug03 (kemper kerry)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 10.00    
11  I'M A COOL CAT Oct20 Oct04 Sep08 Jul13 Jun22 (long vaughn)LARSEN S 121 8.00 14% 6.40    
12  BRANNIGAN Oct26 Oct18 Oct06 Sep28 Sep20 (lavanway d)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 5.00    
 
ARP-3   11/15/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BARBIERE Oct12 Sep29 Sep01 Aug18 Aug11 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 2.50 68% 0.50    
2  FLOOR IT Oct26 Oct06 Sep13 Sep08 Aug18 (arceo salv)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 8.00    
3  VITALE Oct25 Oct06 Sep28 Sep14 Sep02 (ramaekers eric)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50    
4  EL CAPRICHO Oct27 Oct18 Jul28 Jul20 Jun22 (stubblefi)IRONEYES R 124 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PRINCE OTTO Nov01 Oct20 Oct06 Apr16 Apr02 (esquibel mar)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 3.50    
6  DIVINE TASK Nov02 Oct26 Oct11 Sep04 Aug26 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 6.00 6% 16.50    
SCR  PAYNTER'S BOY Nov02 Oct19 Oct04 Sep13 Sep01 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.00    
 
ARP-4   11/15/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SNUGGLE BUNNY Oct13 Sep29 Aug30 Jul08 Jun24 (parsons r)IRONEYES R 119 4.00 12% 7.50    
2  MS BUMBLEBEE Oct05 Aug25 Jul29 Jun14 Aug26 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 6.00 31% 2.20    
3  MOR FOXY Oct26 Sep27 Sep13 Aug26 Aug18 (ramaekers er)NUNNALLY BLAKE 122 3.50    
4  UNKNOWN CALLER Oct12 Sep29 Sep15 Sep01 Aug23 (haar rober)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 8.00    
5  CINCO GAL Oct19 Sep21 Sep06 Aug10 Jul21 (hibdon n)HAAR NATHAN 122 2.50    
6  LITTLE MORE LOVE Oct26 Oct12 Sep01 Aug18 Jul20 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.50    
SCR  JILL'S LEMON DROP Oct11 Jun30 Jun02 May18 Apr23 (dieter da)MEDINA ANGEL 124 4.00    
8  IMA HAPPY DANCER Oct19 Oct04 Sep21 Jul10 Jun19 (rushton stet)GONZALEZ PEDRO 121 15.00    
9  COLLIER Oct26 Oct11 Sep01 Aug03 Jul11 (rushton templ)CARDOSO DAVID 122 3.00    
10  SHE'S SO FANCY Oct25 Sep28 Aug16 Jul20 Jul07 (guadarrama )VORRATH VALENTE 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  HAUGHTY KITTY Nov03 Oct12 Sep29 Sep21 Aug11 (ortega joe)LARSEN S 124 10.00 8% 11.70    
12  JUST A SEC Oct19 Oct04 Sep11 Aug26 Aug06 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 15.00 10% 8.60    
 
ARP-5   11/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($24K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHEELER DEALER Oct27 Oct11 Sep21 Sep07 Aug19 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 23% 3.30    
2  TULSA TIME Oct27 Oct12 Sep21 Sep07 Jul21 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 124 8.00 9% 10.00    
3  RUNNIN BUFFALO Nov01 Oct18 Oct06 Sep08 Jun08 (rushton t)MEDINA ANGEL 124 6.00    
4  TOMBI Oct27 Oct12 Oct04 Sep21 Sep01 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 3.00    
5  COLLUSIONIST Oct27 Oct12 Sep21 Sep07 Aug11 (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 124 1.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  QUICKTRIP VAN Oct27 Oct12 Sep21 Sep07 Aug11 (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 2.50    
 
ARP-6   11/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($11K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAZARDTOYOURHEALTH Oct12 Sep26 Sep01 Aug15 Jul27 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 122 8.00    
2  DAYTRIP SELFIE May25         (ramaekers er)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  GREENLEIGH Oct20         (chavez)ARRIOLA-SERRANO JOSE 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  QUEENS HALO Oct20 Oct04 Dec12 Nov06   (long vaughn)LARSEN S 122 3.50 42% 1.40    
5  DESERT PEPPER Nov03 Oct20 Sep11 Sep02 Aug26 (marquez jos)VORRATH VALENTE 124 10.00 11% 7.90    
6  BIG MARY Sep28 Aug03       (martinez a)ARANA MINOR 122 8.00    
7  TAPIT CARA Oct20         (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 10.00    
8  DONNA'S SHINEYGIRL Oct25 Oct05       (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 119 4.50 18% 4.40    
SCR  I'M A TRUMPER Nov02 Oct25 Oct13 Oct05 Sep20 (kemper ke)MEDINA ANGEL 119 2.50    
10  FLY FREE Nov02 Oct13 Oct05 Sep20 Sep09 (kemper kerry)CARDOSO DAVID 119 5.00    
SCR  RAINBOWS ON ICE Oct12 Sep28 Jul27 Jun16 May19 (rust terr)IRONEYES R 122 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.