Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - October 20, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (4/3/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/5/8)-(4/3/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/5/8)-(4/3/5/8)-(4/3/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/5/8)-(1/4/5/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ARP-2   WIN (1/4/5/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/5/8/3)-(1/4/5/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/5/8/3)-(1/4/5/8/3)-(1/4/5/8/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ARP-3   WIN (6/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/1)-(6/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/1)-(6/7/1)-(6/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/7/1)-(1/4/7/2)-(3/2/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-4   WIN (1/4/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/7/2)-(1/4/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/7/2)-(1/4/7/2)-(1/4/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-5   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   10/20/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHUCK NAZTY Sep14 Jul21 Jun15 Apr29 Apr09 (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 2.00    
2  WEBCAM Sep07 Jun29 Jun23 May27 May04 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 6.00    
3  EURO TRACKING Oct11 Sep28 Sep15 Aug23 Jun05 (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 2.50 17% 4.90    
4  BLUE SKYE JADE Oct11 Sep28 Sep14 Sep02 Aug03 (williams )IRONEYES R 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
5  OUTRIGHT Sep21 Sep14 Sep01 Aug17 Jul27 (ramaekers er)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 8.00 15% 5.80    
6  INCITATUS Oct05 Sep21 Jul14 Jun22 Jun02 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50    
7  HAPPY HOUR BOBBY Sep28 Sep19 Sep02 Aug17 Aug01 (kenney ry)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
8  HAIL STATE Sep28 Jul17 Jun25 Jun03 Mar30 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-2   10/20/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($17K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS JOSIE Oct04 Sep13       (dieter da)MEDINA ANGEL 124 2.00 47% 1.10    
  (by GORMLEY out of PROMPTER by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  CLAY'S RUBY LOVE Aug16 Jul11 Apr27 Apr06 Mar15 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00    
  (by CALEB'S POSSE out of CLAY'S DIALING IN by GIANT OAK)
SCR  CARO'S GLADIATOR         (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 119 8.00 5% 17.60    
  (by ROMAN GLADIATOR out of CARO KITTY by TROPICAL STORM)
4  TAPIT CARA         (rushton s)IRONEYES R 116 10.00 6% 15.00    
  (by APACHE PARK out of TAPIT LIGHTLY by TAPIT)
5  GREENLEIGH         (chavez)ARRIOLA-SERRANO JOSE 119 12.00 6% 15.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of FAPPOLINO by TREMPOLINO)
6  QUEENS HALO Oct04 Dec12 Nov06     (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 4.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of MY BETHANY by BERNSTEIN)
7  GAMBLERS NIGHTMARE Oct04 Sep21 Sep01     (ramaekers eri)CARDOSO DAVID 122 2.50    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of GAMBLER'S DREAM by FLASHBACK)
8  MY DANCING BEAR         (loftin linda)GONZALEZ PEDRO 122 12.00 6% 15.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of MY SUGAR CAT by KITTEN'S JOY)
9  DESERT PEPPER Sep11 Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Dec20 (marquez jos)BACHICHA ELIJAH 124 8.00    
  (by PUNCTUATE out of LADY RIESLING by DOME)
 
ARP-3   10/20/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JANIS Oct05 Sep21 Sep08 Jul31 Jul04 (hibdon ma)MEDINA ANGEL 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TIZ A STRATEGY Sep28 Sep15 Aug25 Jul29 Jul14 (lemburg ma)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 3.50    
3  DANGERELLA Aug31 Aug24 Aug16 Aug04 Jun29 (leon alexis)ARANA MINOR 124 8.00    
4  AZUSA STREET Sep19 Aug31 Jul18 Jun27 Jun19 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 124 10.00    
SCR  MS BUMBLEBEE Oct05 Aug25 Jul29 Jun14 Aug26 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 121 2.00    
6  BRING THE POSSE Oct04 Sep21 Sep09 Aug14 Jul29 (kemper ke)IRONEYES R 116 2.50 39% 1.60    
7  SMOOCHING Sep29 Sep07 Aug04 Jun25 May31 (kenney ryan)CARDOSO DAVID 122 4.50 37% 1.70    
 
ARP-4   10/20/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I'M A COOL CAT Oct04 Sep08 Jul13 Jun22 May11 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 5.00 59% 0.70    
2  UNCLE JUJU Oct13 Sep13 Aug18 Jul28 Jul19 (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SCHLEICHER Oct05 Sep22 Sep06 Aug16 Aug01 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
4  THREE FOR THREE Oct04 Sep20 Aug16 Jul20 Jun28 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 3.50 8% 11.10    
5  MEET GEORGE JETSON Oct12 Sep28 Jun08 May27 Apr27 (rushton tem)VORRATH VALENTE 124 4.50    
6  YOUNGDUMBANDBROKE Oct12 Sep21 Sep02 Aug11 Aug03 (lemburg m)IRONEYES R 119 2.50    
7  PRINCE OTTO Oct06 Apr16 Apr02 Mar04 Feb20 (esquibel mar)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 10.00 5% 18.30    
 
ARP-5   10/20/2024 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIT THE SEAM Sep27 Sep19 Aug24 Jul07 Jun08 (ramaekers)IRONEYES R 119 10.00 14% 6.20    
2  BRAYBRAY Sep08 Jul21 Jun15 May02 Apr15 (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50 18% 4.70    
3  BUGLER Oct06 Sep02 Aug24 Aug10 Jul03 (kenney ryan)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 36% 1.70    
4  HURTS SO GOOD Sep21 Aug29 Aug10 Jul24 Jun30 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 8.00    
5  POPS AWESOME Oct06 Aug25 Aug03 Apr16 Sep15 (williams dewey)RAMOS B 124 6.00    
6  GOLD MAGIC Oct04 Sep26 Aug22 Jul07 Jun16 (kenney rya)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.