Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Friday - October 18, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (2/11/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/11/4/5)-(2/11/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/11/4/5)-(2/11/4/5)-(2/11/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/11/4/5)-(6/4/2/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ARP-2   WIN (6/4/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/2/1)-(6/4/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/2/1)-(6/4/2/1)-(6/4/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-3   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/2)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(8/9/7/4)-(5/1/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-4   WIN (8/9/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/7/4)-(8/9/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/9/7/4)-(8/9/7/4)-(8/9/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/9/7/4)-(5/1/2)-(6/2/4/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-5   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-6   WIN (6/2/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/4/5)-(6/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/4/5)-(6/2/4/5)-(6/2/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-8   WIN (8/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   10/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($4K) Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCE OF LUCK Oct06 Sep22 Sep13 Aug23 Aug16 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50    
2  HERMISTON Oct06 Aug31 Aug18 Aug03 Jul20 (lavanway dayson)ARANA MINOR 124 8.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  SCHMOOZE Oct06 Sep14 Sep06 Aug23 Aug17 (bethke troy )BETHKE A 124 6.00    
4  PREACHER Oct05 Jun29 Jun09 May26 May04 (rushton t)IRONEYES R 119 5.00 7% 14.20    
5  JAMES'S MOONSHINE Sep27 Sep15 Aug23 Aug16 Jul20 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 8.00 6% 17.10    
SCR  CHUCK NAZTY Sep14 Jul21 Jun15 Apr29 Apr09 (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 2.50    
7  WILD FIREMAKER Sep06 Aug25 Aug18 Jun29 Jun16 (ibanez alber)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 12.00    
SCR  OREGON COUNTY Oct04 Sep13 Sep07 Jul21 Jun30 (hibdon n)RAMOS B 124 10.00    
SCR  BUMPER POOL Sep28 Sep14 Sep06 Aug10 Jul28 (bethke a)FACKLER CHRIS 124 15.00    
10  SCOOTER'S BOY Oct04 Sep20 Sep05 Aug24 Aug10 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
11  IMPASSIONED CLAIM Oct06 Sep22 Aug10 Jul13 Jun22 (whitehouse wi)CARDOSO DAVID 124 4.50 13% 6.70    
 
ARP-2   10/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JON L Sep08 Aug31 Aug17 Aug03 Jun22 (tsosie terri)CARDENAS JACOB 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  TIMEHASCOME Sep20 Sep01 Aug17 Aug04 Jun02 (ramaekers)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50 9% 10.80    
SCR  JUST PLAIN ORNERY Oct11 Sep20 Aug18 Jul27 Jul13 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00    
4  FURLONGIN FOR LUV Sep29 Sep07 Aug25 Aug03 Jun30 (kemper ker)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 4.00 20% 4.10    
5  BRANNIGAN Oct06 Sep28 Sep20 Sep05 Aug25 (lavanway dayson)RAMOS B 124 3.00    
6  KAELY'S BROTHER Oct06 Sep01 Aug17 Jul21 Jul14 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 5.00 40% 1.50    
7  CREATIVE MIRACLE Oct06 Sep22 Aug28 Jul30 Jul07 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 6.00    
8  TAP TAP HUSTO Oct06 Sep22 Jun30 Sep09 Aug19 (chavez jose)VORRATH VALENTE 122 8.00    
SCR  CREDIT RATING Oct11 Sep20 Sep07 Aug25 Jul21 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
10  APOLLO BAY Sep27 Sep08 Aug16 Jul03 Jun15 (ibanez alberto)ARANA JOSE 124 15.00    
 
ARP-3   10/18/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($20K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILENCE'S NATION Sep09 Aug27 Aug07 Jul23 Jul09 (chavez)ARRIOLA-SERRANO JOSE 124 3.50    
  (by TROJAN NATION out of CUPCAKE'S SURPRISE by EISHIN MASAMUNE (JPN))
2  QUEEN COIN         (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 12.00 29% 2.40    
  (by CO FERMENT out of QUEEN LILLY KAY by INDY KING)
3  OLD FASHION TIME Sep21 Dec18 Nov07 Oct18 Sep09 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.00 ★    
  (by MAJOR BIG TIME out of OLD FASHION LOVE by BELLINGHAM)
SCR  GRACEFULLYBROKE Oct06 Sep21       (rushton s)IRONEYES R 119 4.50    
  (by APACHE PARK out of BROKEANLOVINGIT by BLUEGRASS CAT)
5  ALL MY VICES Oct04 Sep13       (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50 36% 1.80    
  (by VICE LORD out of LAKE CIDE GIRL by KENNEDY FACTOR)
 
ARP-4   10/18/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MONGOLIAN MOON Oct06 Sep22 Aug16 Aug04 Jul28 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
SCR  DIVE DEEP Oct06 Sep25 Sep14 Sep01 Aug24 (bethke troy )BETHKE A 124 8.00    
3  GREY POINT Sep28 Sep15 Sep06 Aug31 Aug18 (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 5.00    
4  CASPER JUSTICE Sep27 Sep20 Sep06 Sep01 Aug09 (arceo sal)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  WEALTH N HEALTH Oct04 Sep22 Sep01 Aug24 Aug10 (lavanway dayson)ARANA MINOR 124 12.00    
6  EL CAPRICHO Jul28 Jul20 Jun22 Jun15 Jun02 (stubblefi)IRONEYES R 119 3.50    
7  DANCE FOR RANSOM Sep28 Sep13 Jul27 Jul20 Jul13 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.50 8% 11.40    
8  OPTIMAL Sep28 Sep06 Jun30 Jun22 Jun02 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 2.00 40% 1.50    
9  DOCS CARO CAT Oct12 Sep28 Sep21 Jul03 Jun19 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 2.50 27% 2.80    
 
ARP-5   10/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($14.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIGPARTY NOWHISKEY Oct05 Sep20 Sep06 Jun09 May26 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 6.00 23% 3.40    
2  HOLY MISSION Oct05 Sep02 Aug12 Jul30 Jul23 (hall monk)IRONEYES R 119 10.00 20% 4.10    
3  RUNNIN BUFFALO Oct06 Sep08 Jun08 Nov24 Nov10 (rushton temple)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50    
4  GUTFIELD Sep21 Sep09 Aug27 Aug07 Jul30 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 3.50    
5  TIME TO SKIP TOWN Sep21 Aug12 Jul31 Jun25 Oct02 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 2.50 25% 3.00    
 
ARP-6   10/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FESSY Oct13 Sep08 Aug23 Aug16 Jul28 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 10.00    
2  RASPBERRY WINE Sep08 Aug10 Jul27 Jul14 Jun15 (rust terri)RAMOS B 122 2.50 25% 2.90    
3  RICHIE'S GAL Oct06 Sep14 Sep01 Aug16 Aug03 (chavez ve)MEDINA ANGEL 122 4.00    
4  LAYAWAY Sep29 Sep14 Aug23 Aug03 Jul21 (thompson )IRONEYES R 119 3.50 13% 6.80    
5  BEE A BALI Sep28 Sep14 Aug18 Jul20 May18 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  ARIZONA REINA Sep27 Sep07 Jul27 Jul20 May02 (ortega joe)CARDOSO DAVID 122 4.00 38% 1.60    
7  GRACIE'S A TIGER Sep29 Sep08 Aug04 Jul14 Jun16 (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 2.00    
 
ARP-8   10/18/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($18.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAE GAE Sep29 Sep06 Aug10 Jul27 Jul13 (long vaughn)CARDOSO DAVID 122 3.50 14% 6.00    
2  FREEDOM FLASH Sep29 Sep13 Sep02 Aug24 Aug16 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 8.00    
3  MOON SHINE TIME Sep27 Sep06 Aug10 Jul27 Jun30 (long vaugh)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 9.00 13% 6.60    
4  CAT GAMER Sep28 Sep06 Aug11 Jul20 Dec26 (rust terr)IRONEYES R 119 2.50    
5  ATHENS MOON Sep29 Sep13 Aug14 Jul23 Mar23 (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00 16% 5.30    
6  SILENT REASON Sep14 Sep03 Aug02 Jun23 May08 (ortega joe)RAMOS B 122 8.00    
7  SHARMA'D Sep28 Sep19 Sep07 Aug08 Jul27 (rushton s)MEDINA ANGEL 122 10.00    
8  BIG JACK Sep27 Sep13 Aug10 Jul21 Jun30 (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 3.00 28% 2.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.